Austrian Election - October 1, 2006
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  Austrian Election - October 1, 2006
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Poll
Question: Which party would you vote for in Austria ?
#1
ÖVP
 
#2
SPÖ
 
#3
Greens
 
#4
FPÖ
 
#5
BZÖ
 
#6
HPM
 
#7
KPÖ
 
#8
SLP
 
#9
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 37

Author Topic: Austrian Election - October 1, 2006  (Read 33132 times)
Jens
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« Reply #125 on: October 31, 2006, 05:47:13 AM »

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?
Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the ÖVP to vote against the government together with BZÖ and FPÖ to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #126 on: October 31, 2006, 06:20:30 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2006, 06:23:05 AM by Old Europe »

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?
Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the ÖVP to vote against the government together with BZÖ and FPÖ to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.

That's not what I meant. The question is not whether it would be a good idea to install some form of minority government... my point is whether it would be a very wise of the SPÖ and Greens to let their coalition be tolerated by the FPÖ of all things.

This would be similar to a CDU/FDP minority government tolerated by the PDS in Germany. Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #127 on: October 31, 2006, 06:40:57 AM »

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?
Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the ÖVP to vote against the government together with BZÖ and FPÖ to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.

Well, as Jens pointed out, Austrians for the most part blame the ÖVP for the shutdown of the SPÖ-ÖVP Coalition talks. And they are more "used" to the joint SPÖ-Green-FPÖ proposal in parliament to install a investigation comittee of the Eurofighters than they are used to the upholding of the purchase of the Jets proposed by the ÖVP. I have to correct myself: Yesterday I posted that the Austrians are evenly split between buying and cancelling the Jets. Today I´ve read that the oppose buying them by 60-40. So it seems the ÖVP is clearly on the defense. The credibility of SPÖ-Greens and FPÖ you´ve adressed isn´t really at stake now, because they have the population's opinion on their side. Greens and FPÖ are just working together on the Eurofighter jets, but when it comes to real coalition talks between both, I doubt Greens and FPÖ would ever work together. To add: Austria has a tradition of very long coalition talks. After the last 2 elections talks lasted about 3 months. We have to see what happens next. According to new polls, the SPÖ could get up to 38% now and the Greens 12%, with the ÖVP at 32%. It would certainly help the Social Democrats to call for new elections and hope for a Red-Green-majority. But I don´t trust our polling institutions anymore, after their mess in October Tongue After a proposal for new elections is agreed on in parliament and approved, new elections would take place 10 weeks after the parliament vote. Which means the earliest date for new elections is in January. But now we have to wait what the ÖVP is doing - Will they negotiate again or not and what our president, Heinz Fischer will do - he also can serve as a middleman and give advices. He himself also has the power to dissolve the National Council and call for new elections - which is more unlikely than a party proposal in parliament.
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« Reply #128 on: October 31, 2006, 07:00:17 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2006, 07:02:36 AM by Old Europe »

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?
Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the ÖVP to vote against the government together with BZÖ and FPÖ to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.

Well, as Jens pointed out, Austrians for the most part blame the ÖVP for the shutdown of the SPÖ-ÖVP Coalition talks. And they are more "used" to the joint SPÖ-Green-FPÖ proposal in parliament to install a investigation comittee of the Eurofighters than they are used to the upholding of the purchase of the Jets proposed by the ÖVP. I have to correct myself: Yesterday I posted that the Austrians are evenly split between buying and cancelling the Jets. Today I´ve read that the oppose buying them by 60-40. So it seems the ÖVP is clearly on the defense. The credibility of SPÖ-Greens and FPÖ you´ve adressed isn´t really at stake now, because they have the population's opinion on their side. Greens and FPÖ are just working together on the Eurofighter jets, but when it comes to real coalition talks between both, I doubt Greens and FPÖ would ever work together.

Yes, but except for the whole Eurofighters thing is there much else SPÖ/Greens and FPÖ agree on? I mean, I don't see much common ground to justify such a constellation... even if the FPÖ is only tolerating SPÖ/Greens, without joining a formal coalition. The mere opposition to the Eurofighters isn't constituting much basis for any form of medium-term or even long-term cooperation. Is the FPÖ supposed to elect an SPÖ chancellor simply on the grounds that he's oppsing the Eurofighters? That's what I meant.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #129 on: October 31, 2006, 07:18:04 AM »

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?
Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the ÖVP to vote against the government together with BZÖ and FPÖ to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.

Well, as Jens pointed out, Austrians for the most part blame the ÖVP for the shutdown of the SPÖ-ÖVP Coalition talks. And they are more "used" to the joint SPÖ-Green-FPÖ proposal in parliament to install a investigation comittee of the Eurofighters than they are used to the upholding of the purchase of the Jets proposed by the ÖVP. I have to correct myself: Yesterday I posted that the Austrians are evenly split between buying and cancelling the Jets. Today I´ve read that the oppose buying them by 60-40. So it seems the ÖVP is clearly on the defense. The credibility of SPÖ-Greens and FPÖ you´ve adressed isn´t really at stake now, because they have the population's opinion on their side. Greens and FPÖ are just working together on the Eurofighter jets, but when it comes to real coalition talks between both, I doubt Greens and FPÖ would ever work together.

Yes, but except for the whole Eurofighters thing is there much else SPÖ/Greens and FPÖ agree on? I mean, I don't see much common ground to justify such a constellation... even if the FPÖ is only tolerating SPÖ/Greens, without joining a formal coalition. The mere opposition to the Eurofighters isn't constituting much basis for any form of medium-term or even long-term cooperation. Is the FPÖ supposed to elect an SPÖ chancellor simply on the grounds that he's oppsing the Eurofighters? That's what I meant.

Smiley A Minority Government is what the ÖVP is pokering for. They assume it would break into pieces within a year, therefore giving the ÖVP enough time co consolidate its power and surge ahead of the SPÖ in new elections. That the SPÖ doesn´t really want a minority government is obvious, they would be clever if they cannibalize the Jet-Issue and bring the ÖVP further into a defensive position so that they can get about 37% of the vote, Greens 12% and therefore the majority. It wouldn´t be clever for the Greens either to go into a minority government tolerated by the FPÖ. They would betray their own party after what I´ve seen in the pre-election debates. Green and FPÖ policies are diametrically opposed to each other. The Jet-harmony between both parties is just a result of the flip-flopping of the FPÖ, which first were in favor of buying them, now they are against them.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #130 on: October 31, 2006, 07:20:38 AM »

Smiley A Minority Government is what the ÖVP is pokering for. They assume it would break into pieces within a year, therefore giving the ÖVP enough time co consolidate its power and surge ahead of the SPÖ in new elections.

A year?? That long? Wink
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #131 on: November 02, 2006, 07:05:27 AM »

Good for the ÖVP then.  Given the way that military contracts are usually set up, once you sink some money in, it usually is better to go ahead and finish the contract.  Dropping the Eurofighter now only makes sense if the Luftstreitkräfte is going to stop operating fighter aircraft altogether.
Which, of course, for a small country that couldn't defend itself anyways, is exactly the only sensible option.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #132 on: November 02, 2006, 07:09:12 AM »

I seem to recall that SPÖ, Greens and FPÖ also collaborate on the state-owned broadcaster's supervisory board...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #133 on: November 02, 2006, 07:30:08 AM »

Are there any important (besides the obvious one) differences between the post-Haider FPÖ and what it was like when he was running it?
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Bono
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« Reply #134 on: November 02, 2006, 12:20:52 PM »

Good for the ÖVP then.  Given the way that military contracts are usually set up, once you sink some money in, it usually is better to go ahead and finish the contract.  Dropping the Eurofighter now only makes sense if the Luftstreitkräfte is going to stop operating fighter aircraft altogether.
Which, of course, for a small country that couldn't defend itself anyways, is exactly the only sensible option.


But small countries can defend themselves. Look at Finland in WWII and the Swiss Army now.
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Jens
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« Reply #135 on: November 02, 2006, 04:58:53 PM »

Good for the ÖVP then.  Given the way that military contracts are usually set up, once you sink some money in, it usually is better to go ahead and finish the contract.  Dropping the Eurofighter now only makes sense if the Luftstreitkräfte is going to stop operating fighter aircraft altogether.
Which, of course, for a small country that couldn't defend itself anyways, is exactly the only sensible option.


But small countries can defend themselves. Look at Finland in WWII and the Swiss Army now.
Come on, the Finns fought bravely but lost anyway. The main reason for the drawnout war, was Stalin had killed the majority of the officiers.

Countries like Switzerland and Sweden where not attacted during WWII because of a simple cost-benefit analysis. An analysis that still stands today - why waste your time in mountains and forests, when you can conquer fatter and easier targets. If any of the major powers really wanted to conquer Switzerland they could.
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Colin
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« Reply #136 on: November 02, 2006, 05:18:26 PM »

Good for the ÖVP then.  Given the way that military contracts are usually set up, once you sink some money in, it usually is better to go ahead and finish the contract.  Dropping the Eurofighter now only makes sense if the Luftstreitkräfte is going to stop operating fighter aircraft altogether.
Which, of course, for a small country that couldn't defend itself anyways, is exactly the only sensible option.


But small countries can defend themselves. Look at Finland in WWII and the Swiss Army now.
Come on, the Finns fought bravely but lost anyway. The main reason for the drawnout war, was Stalin had killed the majority of the officiers.

Countries like Switzerland and Sweden where not attacted during WWII because of a simple cost-benefit analysis. An analysis that still stands today - why waste your time in mountains and forests, when you can conquer fatter and easier targets. If any of the major powers really wanted to conquer Switzerland they could.

Very true Jens. Plus nowadays with things such as tactical nuclear weaponry, smart bombs, spy satellites, etc., those mountains and forests provide much less cover and much less of a disadvantage to the biligerant nation as they used to. I'm sure if some large nation with a large and technologically superior army put their will power into it they could crush Switzerland. Hitler probably could have as well its just that it would have taken too many of his men and the Swiss threatened to destroy German assets in Switzerland if they tried to attack.
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« Reply #137 on: November 02, 2006, 11:22:10 PM »

An SPÖ, Greens, FPÖ coalition would be really weird...
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Umengus
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« Reply #138 on: November 03, 2006, 12:31:01 PM »

An SPÖ, Greens, FPÖ coalition would be really weird...

impossible
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #139 on: November 06, 2006, 01:57:47 PM »

Are there any important (besides the obvious one) differences between the post-Haider FPÖ and what it was like when he was running it?
Uh - compared to the eighties and very early 90s, or compared with later?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #140 on: November 06, 2006, 02:29:02 PM »

Are there any important (besides the obvious one) differences between the post-Haider FPÖ and what it was like when he was running it?
Uh - compared to the eighties and very early 90s, or compared with later?

Later
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #141 on: November 06, 2006, 03:22:12 PM »

Are there any important (besides the obvious one) differences between the post-Haider FPÖ and what it was like when he was running it?
Uh - compared to the eighties and very early 90s, or compared with later?

Later
Not much. They lost a power-interested standardish conservative wing, but that was never very relevant in terms of the voter base anyhow.
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freek
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« Reply #142 on: November 07, 2006, 09:30:32 AM »

How about ÖVP - FPÖ - BZÖ? Or a minority government of ÖVP with one of the two FPÖ-remnants, tolerated by the other one?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #143 on: November 07, 2006, 10:40:10 AM »

How about ÖVP - FPÖ - BZÖ? Or a minority government of ÖVP with one of the two FPÖ-remnants, tolerated by the other one?


As far as I know the leaders of FPÖ and BZÖ literally hate each other on a personal level. Wink Party A thinks they were betrayed by party B and vice versa.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #144 on: November 09, 2006, 05:31:36 AM »

Well, they were.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #145 on: November 11, 2006, 05:57:19 AM »

Nothing new after weeks of coalition deadlock, except for a new poll:

In case there were new elections, people would vote like this:

SPÖ: 38%
ÖVP: 32%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 13%

Others (BZÖ, KPÖ, etc.): 3%

Also:

About 60% of Austrians are now in favor of new elections, including me.

Means: SPÖ-Green would have an overwhelming majority right now, but its also known that the party that calls for new elections will get punished at the polls then. Which I find strange, because a majority of Austrians are in favor of new elections, but according to political analysts it is that way. Another uncertainty would be another campaign. If the BZÖ gets above 4% again, we would eventually have the same results as now.

How did Faust say ?

"Here now I stand, poor fool, and see
I'm just as wise as formerly." Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #146 on: November 23, 2006, 05:24:03 AM »

ÖVP and SPÖ are talking again and negotiators from both parties say there´s a good climate. They agreed on amnesty for foreign nursing staff and a programm against youth unemployment. The Eurofghter issue is put aside until a parliamentary investigation comitee has dealt with the issue. The coaltion should be ready by Christmas, if nothing else happens.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #147 on: November 24, 2006, 08:26:43 AM »

I did that test thing (a bit late now I know) and got some weird results:

BZO: 60
KPO: 59
Grune: 53
OVP: 46
SPO: -22
FPO: -80

Huh
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #148 on: November 24, 2006, 08:29:06 AM »

I did that test thing (a bit late now I know) and got some weird results:

BZO: 60
KPO: 59
Grune: 53
OVP: 46
SPO: -22
FPO: -80

Huh

WTF ? BZÖ and Communists at the top ? Together ? How did you answer those questions ? Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #149 on: January 08, 2007, 06:54:22 AM »

Finally we are getting a Grand Coalition. The voting age will be lowered to 16 and there are some other changes regarding tuition, basic income etc. more later, gotta go back to work...
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