Austrian Election - October 1, 2006
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  Austrian Election - October 1, 2006
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Poll
Question: Which party would you vote for in Austria ?
#1
ÖVP
 
#2
SPÖ
 
#3
Greens
 
#4
FPÖ
 
#5
BZÖ
 
#6
HPM
 
#7
KPÖ
 
#8
SLP
 
#9
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 37

Author Topic: Austrian Election - October 1, 2006  (Read 33129 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: June 15, 2006, 01:35:20 AM »
« edited: October 02, 2006, 12:55:58 PM by Harry Haller »

Coming from there, I thought I may start this:

The last elections in Austria were held in November 2002, so it´s quite possible that the next election will be held in the Fall of 2006, the last date possible is in late November.

Here briefly is what happened in the last 20 years:

In 1986 the SPÖ (Social Democratic Party) won with 43% to the 41% of the ÖVP (Peoples Party) and formed a grand coalition which held until 1999 with several elections in between. Also the Greens came into the National Council for the first time.

In the elections in 1999 the parties of the grand coalition suffered losses (SPÖ at 33%, ÖVP at 27%), while the Freedom Party came in second with 27%. Talks about a possible coalition lasted for months, then in January 2000 a coalition between the ÖVP and FPÖ was agreed on.

The last elections in 2002 brought a victory to the ÖVP with 42% of the votes and therefore had more % points than the SPÖ for the first time since 1966. The SPÖ was second with 36,5%, the FPÖ got 10 points and the Greens 9,5%. Turnout was at 84.3%

In 2005 the FPÖ split and Jörg Haider formed the BZÖ (Alliance for the Future of Austria). At least 4% are needed to get into the National Council. Therefore it will be a hard campaign for the BZÖ.

Recent Polling for the 2006 election is as followed:

*ÖVP:        ~ 40%
*SPÖ:        ~ 37%
*Greens:   ~ 12%
*FPÖ:        ~   7%
*BZÖ:        ~   4%

For those who are interested:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Austria

Later more Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2006, 03:17:54 AM »

Will SPÖ and Greens form a coalition if they win?
Who do you support?

Also, I can't quite believe it's been four years already... time sure flies...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2006, 05:06:58 AM »

The question is: If they win. Currently it looks like the Conservatives (ÖVP) are winning. But everything´s possible in the coming months. There are quite a few coalitions possible.

If the Social Democrats are winning and the Greens are also so strong that they can get a majority of seats in the Council, they will probably talk with the Greens first. It is also possible that they talk with the ÖVP, because Austria has a long tradition of Grand Coalitions. A Coalition with the Freedom Party or the BZÖ is unlikely.

If the Conservatives win, they will talk to the SPÖ first, because it seems unlikely that the ÖVP+BZÖ (=current government) will reach a majority of seats. A coalition of ÖVP+BZÖ+FPÖ is possible as is a ÖVP-Green coalition.

It would be the first Red-Green Coalition ever in Austria.

I don´t know yet for which party i will vote. I rule out that I will vote for the FPÖ and the BZÖ. I will look at their programs, then decide.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2006, 05:59:15 PM »

Would I be right in thinking that it's PR used as the electoral system?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2006, 07:02:39 AM »

Would I be right in thinking that it's PR used as the electoral system?

What do you mean by that ? Sry, my english sucks abit.
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CO-OWL
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2006, 09:34:17 AM »

Would I be right in thinking that it's PR used as the electoral system?

What do you mean by that ? Sry, my english sucks abit.

PR just means proportional representation (Verhältniswahlrecht)Smiley.
And I think it's used in Austrian general elections .

BTW, I'd like to see an ÖVP/Greens coalition.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2006, 01:18:05 PM »

From the poll Mark Warner 08 cited, it looks like the SPÖ and Greens are collectively leading the ÖVP and FPÖ, with the BZÖ right at the 4% threshold for being included in Parliament.  So if the BZÖ receives less than 4% of the vote in the next parliamentary election and the numbers for the other parties stay right about where they are, it seems likely that the SPÖ and Greens could form a majority coalition government, even if the ÖVP won the most votes of any individual party.  The ÖVP wouldn't have much ground to complain as they formed a coalition with the FPÖ in 1999 when the SPÖ won the most votes of any individual party.

The polling numbers could certainly change though, and if the BZÖ declines even further that would likely boost the FPÖ and/or ÖVP numbers which could help them vis-a-vis an SPÖ-Greens coalition.

Also, if the Greens could be part of a two-party coalition with either the SPÖ or the ÖVP, would the Greens definitely prefer a coalition with the SPÖ (besides perhaps concerns about its narrowness if it would hold an extremely narrow majority and one with the ÖVP would hold a less narrow majority) or is it not that clear?  Also, how receptive would the ÖVP and the FPÖ be to a coalition between just the two of them (if they overtake the SPÖ and Greens and the BZÖ fails to stay in parliament).  Did Schüssel drop his coalition agreement with the FPÖ simply because it no longer controlled a majority after Haider & company's defection and the rump parliamentary FPÖ was no longer necessary (and perhaps not expelling them from the coalition would have led to difficult relations with the BZÖ), or did Schüssel actually have ideological/personal reasons for preferring a coalition agreement with the Haider camp to the Strache camp?  And regardless of Schüssel's reasons for not keeping the FPÖ in the government, how receptive would the Strache be to a coalition with the ÖVP without the BZÖ?  I assume he would prefer a coalition not including the BZÖ to one including them, and that Haider would likely feel the same way toward his old party, but how receptive would Strache and Haider be to a coalition with each other's parties and the ÖVP if that coalition but no coalition of two of those parties controlled a majority?  I know you, Mark Warner 08, have already talked about the possible coalitions that might be formed, but I'm curious as to some of the preferences that might be made if parties had a choice of coalitions.  Some of those preferences might not be clear at this point, and it's fine for you to tell me that too.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2006, 06:38:35 AM »

...Some of those preferences might not be clear at this point, and it's fine for you to tell me that too...

Yepp, that´s they way it is Kevin. The parties are focusing on their campaign now and after the elections they look what coalition is possible.

Since i wrote this article, the date for the election was set: The election will take place on Sunday, October 1, 2006.

Also the official Election Campaign Budgets of the parties were released:

ÖVP and SPÖ 7 million € each, FPÖ and BZÖ 5 million each and the Greens 4 million. So, the campaign will cost about 30 mio. €.
Alltogether, compared to the US it would be something like 1.4 bio. $. (BTW, how much was the last US Congressional and Presidential election ? does anyone know ?)

Also the parties outlined first aspects of their campaign:

The ÖVP will focus on the person of the chancellor, Wolfgang Schüssel (because in polls he is more popular than his SPÖ counterpart Alfred Gusenbauer) and that Austria has headed in the right direction under their leadership. They also want to avoid a Red-Green Coalition.

The SPÖ focuses on the "Mood of Change" (or whatever you call it), because many in Austria think the current coalition has headed Austria in the wrong direction.

The Greens are focusing primarily on Alternative Energy, Women and Education.

FPÖ and BZÖ are primarily focusing on Foreigners and Immigration. (Integration of foreign children in schools, deportation ....)

Also, the Party "Liberal Forum" will decide this weekend if they enter the elections, and the MEP Hans-Peter Martin is also considering a run with an own list. In opinion polls he currently would get 3 to 5 %. He will decide until August 25.

Ok, later more.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2006, 09:36:05 AM »

My personal preferences for a post-election coalition:

1) SPÖ/Greens

2) ÖVP/Greens

3) Grand coalition

4) No government/coalition, Austria is made a part of Germany again (beats any coalition which incluces FPÖ or BZÖ Cheesy)

5) Austria is annexed by Hungary

6) ÖVP/BZÖ

7) ÖVP/FPÖ
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BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2006, 11:48:58 AM »

Out of those only 1, 3 and 7 have any chances of happening.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2006, 12:35:11 PM »

Out of those only 1, 3 and 7 have any chances of happening.

And possibly 2, but not very likely. The Greens just brought out a "Blackbook ÖVP" and they are critizizing the ÖVP like they are already in the midst of the election campaign. Currently there is a ÖVP - Green Coalition in the state of Upper Austria which is quite succesful, but on national politics - hmm i don´t know. Let´s wait and see.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2006, 05:35:32 AM »

Update:

New Polls are out which show the Social Democrats falling further behind the Conservatives. The BZÖ is struggling with the 4%-barrier to come into the next Council as is Hans-Peter Martin's List if he decides to run.

IMAS-Institute:

ÖVP:       38-40%
SPÖ:         32-34%
FPÖ:             7-8%
Greens:    12-13%
BZÖ:             4-5%
Others:         3-4%

Market-Institute:

ÖVP:           41%
SPÖ:             36%
FPÖ:               5%
Greens:        11%
BZÖ:               3%
HPM's List:      3%
Others:           1%
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2006, 01:54:24 PM »

Who is Hans-Peter Martin?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2006, 03:13:53 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2006, 03:15:34 PM by Old Europe »

I think H-P Martin has officially announced his attention to participate in the election... under the name "Liste Dr. Martin - für Demokratie, Kontrolle, Gerechtigkeit" [roughly translated... "Ticket Dr. Martin - for democracy, checks (as in checks and balances), justice"].

Well, I'm counting now three parties (FPÖ and BZÖ being the other two) who are fishing for protest and anti-establishment votes.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2006, 12:20:39 PM »

That´s true, he now needs to collect 2.600 signatures across the whole country to be on the ballot, as does the Communist Party, the Socialist Party, FPÖ and some local smaller parties who intend to run. Hans-Peter Martin went to the western state of Vorarlberg (where he´s from) and observe how many people are signing the petitions. In the afternoon he announced that far more than the 100 signaures needed in Vorarlberg were submitted. I myself signed one here in the state of Salzburg, because it´s the first time to vote for me and i want lots of parties on the ballot on Oct. 1 Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2006, 12:23:26 PM »

New NEWS-Market poll out:

Conservatives (ÖVP): 39%
Social Democrats (SPÖ): 35%
Greens: 11%
Freedom Party (FPÖ): 6%
List HPM: 5%
Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ): 3%
Others: 1%

Also: Today the Greens came up with a proposal to abolish life without parole in Austria. They want the highest possible prison sentence to be 20 years. Also it should be possible to release prisoners after 2/3 of their sentence. It should reduce costs and prevent overcrowded prisons. Exceptions should be made with repeat offenders. They also favor community service for criminals. All other major parties have opposed their plans immediatly.

To add this: In Austria "life without parole" doesn´t neccesarily mean that you are in prison for the rest of your life. The avarage time for life imprisonment is 21 years. Currently some 160 people in Austria serve "Lifelong sentences."
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2006, 03:28:57 PM »

New NEWS-Market poll out:

Conservatives (ÖVP): 39%
Social Democrats (SPÖ): 35%
Greens: 11%
Freedom Party (FPÖ): 6%
List HPM: 5%
Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ): 3%
Others: 1%

Also: Today the Greens came up with a proposal to abolish life without parole in Austria. They want the highest possible prison sentence to be 20 years. Also it should be possible to release prisoners after 2/3 of their sentence. It should reduce costs and prevent overcrowded prisons. Exceptions should be made with repeat offenders. They also favor community service for criminals. All other major parties have opposed their plans immediatly.

To add this: In Austria "life without parole" doesn´t neccesarily mean that you are in prison for the rest of your life. The avarage time for life imprisonment is 21 years. Currently some 160 people in Austria serve "Lifelong sentences."
So Life then, not Life without Parole.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2006, 10:20:06 AM »

Ok, here in this map you can see the 98 districts of Austria + the city of Vienna and how they voted back in 2002. I will also create maps after the Oct. 1 election then Wink



Dark Blue means the district was won by the Conservatives with over 50% of the vote.

Light blue means the Conservatives won the district but with less than 50%.

The same with the Social Democrats and brown and red.



The green areas here indicate our battleground districts. Light green indicates districts won by less than 10% from either party. Dark Green indicates districts won by less than 5%.

There have been several changes in the last 4 years and therefore it´s very likely that in most green areas here there will be party changes between the Conservatives and Social Democrats.

I also think that the western states of Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg and Upper Austria will stay conservative, as will Lower Austria. Styria (home of Arnie, lol) voted conservative in 2002, but the SD won the state elections in 2005, so therefore it´s a swing state this year. Carinthia is special: There was a 3 way race in 2002, with the Conservatives, SD and the Freedom Party each getting around 30%. Now with the splintering of the right parties I think the Cons. and the SD as well as the Greens might benefit this year. As for Vienna and Burgenland they will stay Social Democrat i think.

I hope somebody gets interested in our elections or my maps. LOL
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BRTD
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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2006, 02:16:22 PM »

That is one thing I do not understand about Europe, the lack of life sentences. In the US, NO ONE would ever dare to propose abolishing life sentences, not even staunch death penalty opponents (of which I am one) would never go for that.
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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2006, 08:43:39 PM »

Go OVP. Smiley That's all I got. Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #20 on: August 13, 2006, 12:29:04 AM »

That is one thing I do not understand about Europe, the lack of life sentences. In the US, NO ONE would ever dare to propose abolishing life sentences, not even staunch death penalty opponents (of which I am one) would never go for that.

Well, you´d maybe have to live here to get a sense why it is that way. For example i can´t understand it the other way round. Why has the US a culture of prisons and harsh punishments ? Why are for example in Utah 400-500 people in prison for some kind of homicide, while Austria has 150 persons in prisons for murders ? Utah has 2,5 mio. inhabitants, while Austria has over 8 mio. So they have 10 times the prison population of murderers than we have. It may be the low homicide rate in Austria, with only about 60 murders each year. Therefore the situation is different in Austria and most of Europe (because murder rates aren´t really higher in most of other Europe) than in the US. I agree that there are several persons here that deserve to be locked away for the rest of their life. But they account maybe for 10% of all murderers. The other 90% who killed someone and are sorry for it and there´s a chance that they can rehabilitate, to them society makes some kind of accommodation and gives them a second chance. Killers like Marc Dutroux and Michel Fourniret are the exception I think and they should be locked away forever. We had our last serial killer here in the early 90s. What about the US ? Serial Killers every week like in Phoenix, in Colorado with 50 victims...So i ask you what is wrong in the US ? Maybe now you can understand the european situation a bit better Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2006, 12:52:52 AM »

New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FPÖ - 6,5%
BZÖ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%
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« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2006, 05:08:57 AM »

New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FPÖ - 6,5%
BZÖ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

A result like this one would mean a SPÖ/Green coalition?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2006, 05:18:32 AM »
« Edited: August 16, 2006, 05:20:03 AM by Mark Warner 08 »

New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FPÖ - 6,5%
BZÖ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

A result like this one would mean a SPÖ/Green coalition?

With the BZÖ and HPM not in parliament it would either be a ÖVP-SPÖ coalition, SPÖ-Green or ÖVP-Green. ÖVP-Green is a likely possibility after the elections. In polls Austrians favor a Grand Coalition, then ÖVP-Green over SPÖ-Green.
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« Reply #24 on: August 16, 2006, 06:05:08 AM »

New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FPÖ - 6,5%
BZÖ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

A result like this one would mean a SPÖ/Green coalition?

With the BZÖ and HPM not in parliament it would either be a ÖVP-SPÖ coalition, SPÖ-Green or ÖVP-Green. ÖVP-Green is a likely possibility after the elections. In polls Austrians favor a Grand Coalition, then ÖVP-Green over SPÖ-Green.

Wouldn't both the SPÖ and the Greens prefer to form a coalition with each other? Or do they fear a possible backlash? Is the Red-Green coalition really that unpopular?
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