Austrian Election - October 1, 2006

[Tender Branson]

New Poll:

IGF (Institut für Grundlagenforschung) - 12.09.2006

ÖVP: 39%
SPÖ: 34%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 8%
HPM: 4%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 1%

41% of those polled don´t know yet for which party they will vote in 3 weeks.

These issues were most important to the voters:

25% Jobs
22% Social Issues
17% Immigration and Foreigners
11% Economy
8% Education
3% Europe

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian political landscape is now entirely split 2 weeks before the elections:

50% for the Center-Right and Right Parties:

ÖVP (39) + FPÖ ( 8 ) + BZÖ (3) = 50%

50% for the Center-Left and Left Parties:

SPÖ (35) + Greens (10) + HPM (4) + Communists (1) = 50%

Always interesting to see ...

[Tender Branson]

New interesting poll:

Profil-OGM 16.09.2006

ÖVP: 38%
SPÖ: 35%
FPÖ: 10%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
HPM: 3%
Others: 1%

BZÖ and HPM currently not in parliament, FPÖ is fighting for 3. place with the Greens.

15 days to go ...

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for Styria State (battleground this year and also bellwether state since 1945, voted with the federal winner in all elections):

ÖVP: 40%
SPÖ: 38%
FPÖ: 9%
Greens: 6%
BZÖ: 3%
KPÖ (Communist Party): 2%
HPM: 1%
Others: 1%

Surprisingly, the Communists are not that strong in Styria like they were in the state elections in 2005, when they got 7% there.

And the first OGM poll for Carinthia State:

SPÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 28%
BZÖ: 21%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 6%
HPM: 3%

With the 21% in Carinthia and about 3% elsewhere in Austria i think the BZÖ should cross the 4% line to get into the Parliament.

Other News:

I watched some debates and I think that after the elections there will only be a Grand Coalition, ÖVP-Green or SPÖ-Green.

[Tender Branson]

New SF poll for Salzburg State:

ÖVP: 46%
SPÖ: 31%
Greens: 13%
FPÖ: 6%
HPM: 2%
BZÖ: 1,5%
KPÖ: 0,5%

And the first OÖN poll for the State of Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 43%
SPÖ: 37%
Greens: 10%
FPÖ: 7%
HPM: 2%
BZÖ: 1%

When I look at all recent state polls, I think the ÖVP will have a comfortable win in 2 weeks.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday the debate Greens vs. FPÖ took place and it was very weird, because of their contradicting positions on issues. Nearly all parties are now involved in smear campaigning and scandals.

The head of the Greens told the head of the FPÖ he is some kind of neonazi and that he´s surrounded by people with Nazi ideas while the FPÖ head accused members of the Greens to be molotov cocktail throwing extremists and a menace for drivers, because the Greens want to raise the gas price to 9$ the gallon and implement 60 mph even on highways.

Both then said: "Tomorrow our attorney will ring your doorbell and we will sue you !" The discussion ranged from accusations of diffamation and agitation of immigrants to denial of reality in cases of legalizing same sex marriages and some sort of basic income etc.

In other news, the SPÖ is involved in a major corruption scandal. A former investment banker from a union admitted giving "some thousand Euros" to the social democrats back in the 90s. The ÖVP is accusing the SDs to decieve the Austrian people and the SDs accuse the ÖVP to carry out a negative campaign. Indeed a Social Democrat governor described the ÖVP as a cancer cell. He later had to apologize.

The campaign debates are very poor when it comes to real issues like unemployment etc. and i think it´s now entering the phase where anyone tries to destroy the other party

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yesterday the debate Greens vs. FPÖ took place and it was very weird, because of their contradicting positions on issues. Nearly all parties are now involved in smear campaigning and scandals.

The head of the Greens told the head of the FPÖ he is some kind of neonazi and that he´s surrounded by people with Nazi ideas while the FPÖ head accused members of the Greens to be molotov cocktail throwing extremists and a menace for drivers, because the Greens want to raise the gas price to 9$ the gallon and implement 60 mph even on highways.

Both then said: "Tomorrow our attorney will ring your doorbell and we will sue you !" The discussion ranged from accusations of diffamation and agitation of immigrants to denial of reality in cases of legalizing same sex marriages and some sort of basic income etc.

In other news, the SPÖ is involved in a major corruption scandal. A former investment banker from a union admitted giving "some thousand Euros" to the social democrats back in the 90s. The ÖVP is accusing the SDs to decieve the Austrian people and the SDs accuse the ÖVP to carry out a negative campaign. Indeed a Social Democrat governor described the ÖVP as a cancer cell. He later had to apologize.

The campaign debates are very poor when it comes to real issues like unemployment etc. and i think it´s now entering the phase where anyone tries to destroy the other party

Sounds fun.   Apparently, Austrian politics are much more interesting than German politics under the current Grand boring coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday the debate Greens vs. FPÖ took place and it was very weird, because of their contradicting positions on issues. Nearly all parties are now involved in smear campaigning and scandals.

The head of the Greens told the head of the FPÖ he is some kind of neonazi and that he´s surrounded by people with Nazi ideas while the FPÖ head accused members of the Greens to be molotov cocktail throwing extremists and a menace for drivers, because the Greens want to raise the gas price to 9$ the gallon and implement 60 mph even on highways.

Both then said: "Tomorrow our attorney will ring your doorbell and we will sue you !" The discussion ranged from accusations of diffamation and agitation of immigrants to denial of reality in cases of legalizing same sex marriages and some sort of basic income etc.

In other news, the SPÖ is involved in a major corruption scandal. A former investment banker from a union admitted giving "some thousand Euros" to the social democrats back in the 90s. The ÖVP is accusing the SDs to decieve the Austrian people and the SDs accuse the ÖVP to carry out a negative campaign. Indeed a Social Democrat governor described the ÖVP as a cancer cell. He later had to apologize.

The campaign debates are very poor when it comes to real issues like unemployment etc. and i think it´s now entering the phase where anyone tries to destroy the other party

Sounds fun.   Apparently, Austrian politics are much more interesting than German politics under the current Grand boring coalition.

At least until election day

Today the debate Greens vs. BZÖ will take place, which guarantees another funny hour to watch. And for sure sparks will fly

A new poll confirms what I said earlier, that the ÖVP will coast to a comfortable win on Oct. 1 if nothing amazing happens in the next 10 days.

NEWS-Market poll: 20-09-2006

ÖVP: 39%
SPÖ: 34%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 9%
HPM: 3%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 1%

Recently it looks like not only the BZÖ won´t be in the parliament but also HPMs List. Therefore we will likely have 4 parties in Parliament with either a Grand Coalition, ÖVP-Green or SPÖ-Green, as I posted earlier.

[Colin]

Yesterday the debate Greens vs. FPÖ took place and it was very weird, because of their contradicting positions on issues. Nearly all parties are now involved in smear campaigning and scandals.

The head of the Greens told the head of the FPÖ he is some kind of neonazi and that he´s surrounded by people with Nazi ideas while the FPÖ head accused members of the Greens to be molotov cocktail throwing extremists and a menace for drivers, because the Greens want to raise the gas price to 9$ the gallon and implement 60 mph even on highways.

Both then said: "Tomorrow our attorney will ring your doorbell and we will sue you !" The discussion ranged from accusations of diffamation and agitation of immigrants to denial of reality in cases of legalizing same sex marriages and some sort of basic income etc.

In other news, the SPÖ is involved in a major corruption scandal. A former investment banker from a union admitted giving "some thousand Euros" to the social democrats back in the 90s. The ÖVP is accusing the SDs to decieve the Austrian people and the SDs accuse the ÖVP to carry out a negative campaign. Indeed a Social Democrat governor described the ÖVP as a cancer cell. He later had to apologize.

The campaign debates are very poor when it comes to real issues like unemployment etc. and i think it´s now entering the phase where anyone tries to destroy the other party

Sounds fun.   Apparently, Austrian politics are much more interesting than German politics under the current Grand boring coalition.

Well having a neo-fascist party in parliament usually does that.

Just see what type of insanity would ensue if the NPD got into the Bundestag.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sounds fun.   Apparently, Austrian politics are much more interesting than German politics under the current Grand boring coalition.

Well having a neo-fascist party in parliament usually does that.

Just see what type of insanity would ensue if the NPD got into the Bundestag.

Ah, on the other hand this might not be such a good idea after all.


Well, I admit, this NPD leader from Mecklenburg who complained on election night that Adolf Hitler is always portrayed so negatively and that it should  be looked from a more objective point of view upon him had something almost cartoon-esque. But such moments of Nazis unintentionally parodying themselves are coming for a far too high price as they should be allowed to sit in a parliament in return.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd consider voting OVP if it were to form a 'Grand Coalition' with the SPO. If not, I'd likely vote SPO. I like the notion of having a Grand Coalition to keep the fruits and nuts out

I find Social Democracy and Christian Democracy the most palatable of the left and right ideologies

Dave

[Tender Branson]

I'd consider voting OVP if it were to form a 'Grand Coalition' with the SPO. If not, I'd likely vote SPO. I like the notion of having a Grand Coalition to keep the fruits and nuts out

I find Social Democracy and Christian Democracy the most palatable of the left and right ideologies

Dave

I already wondered why so few are voting for the Social Democrats in this poll here when the SDs are one of the strongest parties in Austria

But anyway, as I will vote Green I prefer ÖVP-Green, something new.

Yesterday, the big debate for Number 1 took place - ÖVP vs. SPÖ

It was very statesmanlike in my opinion and nobody really tried to "harm" the other party but it was a lively discussion on unemployment, healthcare, education and retirement money and not as polemic as the debates involving FPÖ and BZÖ.

It had some aspects of a grand-coalition and polls after the debate showed no clear winner. Wolfgang Schüssel (ÖVP chairman) was seen as more experienced and had better arguments and Alfred Gusenbauer (SPÖ chairman) was closer to citizens views. Both were congenial to the voters. All in all a balanced debate i think. We have to look now for the post-debate polls if any party can make extra points.

[Tender Branson]

First post debate poll:

Profil-OGM 23.09.2006

ÖVP: 37%
SPÖ: 35%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
HPM: 3%
Others: 1%

Interesting, because this means that the BZÖ and HPM are not in parliament and therefore a SPÖ-Green coalition would have no majority but a ÖVP-Green would have one.

Also it seems that not only the Social Democrats are involved in this union/bank corruption scandal but also the ruling ÖVP incl. party chair Wolfgang Schüssel.

If the SPÖ can attack him and the ÖVP in the last week before the election it could become a cliffhanger election. Another fight will be for 3rd place

[Middle-aged Europe]

Austria's minister of justice, who's from the BZÖ, announced her intention to leave the party today, citing the BZÖ's xenophobia as the main reason.

[Tender Branson]

Austria's minister of justice, who's from the BZÖ, announced her intention to leave the party today, citing the BZÖ's xenophobia as the main reason.

Yes, I read it in the newspaper some minutes ago. I always wondered why she was a member of the BZÖ in the first place because her liberal policies (she favors civil unions - and that inside a right-wing party !!!) did not really belong into the BZÖ. She now considers switching to the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Last post before the Sunday elections:

Yesterday the final debate with all 5 major party chairs took place. The debate was very factually and all 5 were adressing the Undecideds. Campaign ends for the parties will be tomorrow.

These 7 parties will try nationwide to come into parliament:

* ÖVP - (Österreichische Volkspartei - Austrian People's Party)
* SPÖ - (Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs - Austrian Social Democratic Party)
* FPÖ - (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs - Austrian Freedom Party)
* Die Grünen - (The Greens)
* BZÖ - (Bündnis Zukunft Österreich - Alliance for the Future of Austria)
* Liste Dr. Martin: für Demokratie, Kontrolle und Gerechtigkeit - (List Dr. Martin: For Democracy, Control and Justice)
* KPÖ - (Kommunistische Partei Österreichs - Austrian Communist Party)

Latest Polls show:

Fight for 1st place: ÖVP vs. SPÖ

Fight for 3rd place: FPÖ vs. Greens

Fight for 5th place: List Dr. Martin vs. BZÖ

I also expect this result on Sunday night and a turnout between 75 and 80%.

2002 Results - 183 Seats

1 - ÖVP - 42,3% - 79 Seats
2 - SPÖ - 36,5% - 69 Seats
3 - FPÖ - 10,0% - 18 Seats
4 - Greens - 9,5% - 17 Seats
5 - Liberal Forum - 1,0% - 0 Seats (campaigns with the SPÖ this year)
6 - KPÖ - 0,6% - 0 Seats

On Sunday polls will be open from midnight until 5pm (11am NY Time) with exit polls exactly coming in at 5pm.

6.107.686 people will be able to vote, incl. me - my vote is Green.

Exit polls and detailed results can be found here (Sunday 11am NY Time):

www.news.at

[Tender Branson]

Yes ! D-Day has arrived I´m going to get some lunch now, then I´m going to vote with my family. See you when the results come in in about 5.5 hours

[Tender Branson]

Turnout figures just came in: slightly falling compared to 2002 but should remain above 80% or close to. Results coming in in slightly less than 2 hours

[Tender Branson]

Results coming in - 1st Exit poll:

1) SPÖ: 35,8%
2) ÖVP: 35,3%
3) FPÖ: 10,5%
4) Greens: 9,8%
5) BZÖ: 4,2%
6) Martin: 2,9%
7) KPÖ: 1,2%

Shocking result so far, and this can become a long, long evening ...maybe we have to wait for the absentee ballots ...

stay tunded ...

[Tender Branson]

2138 out of 2380 cities counted:

1) SPÖ: 35,8%
2) ÖVP: 34,5%
3) FPÖ: 11,1%
4) Greens: 10,3%
5) BZÖ: 4,1%
6) Martin: 2,8%
7) KPÖ: 1,1%

A strange result, because every single poll showed the ÖVP about 3% ahead. Massive losses for the Conservatives , best result for the Greens ever but not in front of the FPÖ, HPM not in parliament and the BZÖ struggling with the 4% mark to be in it.

[ag]

Possible coalitions (if the results hold):

If the results hold, the only 2-party coalition possible is the grand coalition (and the only three-party coalition impossible is FPO-Grune-BZO   ). What is going to happen?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If these results hold... what a nice suprise

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the BZÖ is in: Grand coalition.
If the BZÖ is out: Red-Green.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a results site?

[ag]

Somebody has suggested www.news.at  . You could also check

http://electionresources.org/at/nationalrat.php?election=2006

In any case, for the record, it seems the results are:

Turnout 74.22%

SPO 35.71% (-0.8%), 68 seats
VPO  34.22% (-8.08%) 66 seats
FPO 11.21% (+1.2%) 21 seats
Grune 10.49% (+1.02%) 20 seats
BZO 4.2% (+4.2%) 8 seats
Dr. Martin  2.83% (+2.83%) nil seats
KPO 1.01% (+0.45%) nil seats
Others 0.3% nil seats

Without BZO it would have been a 1 seat majority for Red-Green. As is, it seems it will be a grand coalition.

Update: it seems only to be final up to the absetee ballots (some 400,000 of these), so minor details might change.