Austrian Election - October 1, 2006

[Tender Branson]

Coming from there, I thought I may start this:

The last elections in Austria were held in November 2002, so it´s quite possible that the next election will be held in the Fall of 2006, the last date possible is in late November.

Here briefly is what happened in the last 20 years:

In 1986 the SPÖ (Social Democratic Party) won with 43% to the 41% of the ÖVP (Peoples Party) and formed a grand coalition which held until 1999 with several elections in between. Also the Greens came into the National Council for the first time.

In the elections in 1999 the parties of the grand coalition suffered losses (SPÖ at 33%, ÖVP at 27%), while the Freedom Party came in second with 27%. Talks about a possible coalition lasted for months, then in January 2000 a coalition between the ÖVP and FPÖ was agreed on.

The last elections in 2002 brought a victory to the ÖVP with 42% of the votes and therefore had more % points than the SPÖ for the first time since 1966. The SPÖ was second with 36,5%, the FPÖ got 10 points and the Greens 9,5%. Turnout was at 84.3%

In 2005 the FPÖ split and Jörg Haider formed the BZÖ (Alliance for the Future of Austria). At least 4% are needed to get into the National Council. Therefore it will be a hard campaign for the BZÖ.

Recent Polling for the 2006 election is as followed:

*ÖVP:        ~ 40%
*SPÖ:        ~ 37%
*Greens:   ~ 12%
*FPÖ:        ~   7%
*BZÖ:        ~   4%

For those who are interested:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Austria

Later more

[Tender Branson]

The question is: If they win. Currently it looks like the Conservatives (ÖVP) are winning. But everything´s possible in the coming months. There are quite a few coalitions possible.

If the Social Democrats are winning and the Greens are also so strong that they can get a majority of seats in the Council, they will probably talk with the Greens first. It is also possible that they talk with the ÖVP, because Austria has a long tradition of Grand Coalitions. A Coalition with the Freedom Party or the BZÖ is unlikely.

If the Conservatives win, they will talk to the SPÖ first, because it seems unlikely that the ÖVP+BZÖ (=current government) will reach a majority of seats. A coalition of ÖVP+BZÖ+FPÖ is possible as is a ÖVP-Green coalition.

It would be the first Red-Green Coalition ever in Austria.

I don´t know yet for which party i will vote. I rule out that I will vote for the FPÖ and the BZÖ. I will look at their programs, then decide.

[Tender Branson]

Would I be right in thinking that it's PR used as the electoral system?

What do you mean by that ? Sry, my english sucks abit.

[Tender Branson]

...Some of those preferences might not be clear at this point, and it's fine for you to tell me that too...

Yepp, that´s they way it is Kevin. The parties are focusing on their campaign now and after the elections they look what coalition is possible.

Since i wrote this article, the date for the election was set: The election will take place on Sunday, October 1, 2006.

Also the official Election Campaign Budgets of the parties were released:

ÖVP and SPÖ 7 million € each, FPÖ and BZÖ 5 million each and the Greens 4 million. So, the campaign will cost about 30 mio. €.
Alltogether, compared to the US it would be something like 1.4 bio. $. (BTW, how much was the last US Congressional and Presidential election ? does anyone know ?)

Also the parties outlined first aspects of their campaign:

The ÖVP will focus on the person of the chancellor, Wolfgang Schüssel (because in polls he is more popular than his SPÖ counterpart Alfred Gusenbauer) and that Austria has headed in the right direction under their leadership. They also want to avoid a Red-Green Coalition.

The SPÖ focuses on the "Mood of Change" (or whatever you call it), because many in Austria think the current coalition has headed Austria in the wrong direction.

The Greens are focusing primarily on Alternative Energy, Women and Education.

FPÖ and BZÖ are primarily focusing on Foreigners and Immigration. (Integration of foreign children in schools, deportation ....)

Also, the Party "Liberal Forum" will decide this weekend if they enter the elections, and the MEP Hans-Peter Martin is also considering a run with an own list. In opinion polls he currently would get 3 to 5 %. He will decide until August 25.

Ok, later more.

[Tender Branson]

Out of those only 1, 3 and 7 have any chances of happening.

And possibly 2, but not very likely. The Greens just brought out a "Blackbook ÖVP" and they are critizizing the ÖVP like they are already in the midst of the election campaign. Currently there is a ÖVP - Green Coalition in the state of Upper Austria which is quite succesful, but on national politics - hmm i don´t know. Let´s wait and see.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

New Polls are out which show the Social Democrats falling further behind the Conservatives. The BZÖ is struggling with the 4%-barrier to come into the next Council as is Hans-Peter Martin's List if he decides to run.

IMAS-Institute:

ÖVP:       38-40%
SPÖ:         32-34%
FPÖ:             7-8%
Greens:    12-13%
BZÖ:             4-5%
Others:         3-4%

Market-Institute:

ÖVP:           41%
SPÖ:             36%
FPÖ:               5%
Greens:        11%
BZÖ:               3%
HPM's List:      3%
Others:           1%

[Tender Branson]

That´s true, he now needs to collect 2.600 signatures across the whole country to be on the ballot, as does the Communist Party, the Socialist Party, FPÖ and some local smaller parties who intend to run. Hans-Peter Martin went to the western state of Vorarlberg (where he´s from) and observe how many people are signing the petitions. In the afternoon he announced that far more than the 100 signaures needed in Vorarlberg were submitted. I myself signed one here in the state of Salzburg, because it´s the first time to vote for me and i want lots of parties on the ballot on Oct. 1

[Tender Branson]

New NEWS-Market poll out:

Conservatives (ÖVP): 39%
Social Democrats (SPÖ): 35%
Greens: 11%
Freedom Party (FPÖ): 6%
List HPM: 5%
Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ): 3%
Others: 1%

Also: Today the Greens came up with a proposal to abolish life without parole in Austria. They want the highest possible prison sentence to be 20 years. Also it should be possible to release prisoners after 2/3 of their sentence. It should reduce costs and prevent overcrowded prisons. Exceptions should be made with repeat offenders. They also favor community service for criminals. All other major parties have opposed their plans immediatly.

To add this: In Austria "life without parole" doesn´t neccesarily mean that you are in prison for the rest of your life. The avarage time for life imprisonment is 21 years. Currently some 160 people in Austria serve "Lifelong sentences."

[Tender Branson]

Ok, here in this map you can see the 98 districts of Austria + the city of Vienna and how they voted back in 2002. I will also create maps after the Oct. 1 election then



Dark Blue means the district was won by the Conservatives with over 50% of the vote.

Light blue means the Conservatives won the district but with less than 50%.

The same with the Social Democrats and brown and red.



The green areas here indicate our battleground districts. Light green indicates districts won by less than 10% from either party. Dark Green indicates districts won by less than 5%.

There have been several changes in the last 4 years and therefore it´s very likely that in most green areas here there will be party changes between the Conservatives and Social Democrats.

I also think that the western states of Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg and Upper Austria will stay conservative, as will Lower Austria. Styria (home of Arnie, lol) voted conservative in 2002, but the SD won the state elections in 2005, so therefore it´s a swing state this year. Carinthia is special: There was a 3 way race in 2002, with the Conservatives, SD and the Freedom Party each getting around 30%. Now with the splintering of the right parties I think the Cons. and the SD as well as the Greens might benefit this year. As for Vienna and Burgenland they will stay Social Democrat i think.

I hope somebody gets interested in our elections or my maps. LOL

[Tender Branson]

That is one thing I do not understand about Europe, the lack of life sentences. In the US, NO ONE would ever dare to propose abolishing life sentences, not even staunch death penalty opponents (of which I am one) would never go for that.

Well, you´d maybe have to live here to get a sense why it is that way. For example i can´t understand it the other way round. Why has the US a culture of prisons and harsh punishments ? Why are for example in Utah 400-500 people in prison for some kind of homicide, while Austria has 150 persons in prisons for murders ? Utah has 2,5 mio. inhabitants, while Austria has over 8 mio. So they have 10 times the prison population of murderers than we have. It may be the low homicide rate in Austria, with only about 60 murders each year. Therefore the situation is different in Austria and most of Europe (because murder rates aren´t really higher in most of other Europe) than in the US. I agree that there are several persons here that deserve to be locked away for the rest of their life. But they account maybe for 10% of all murderers. The other 90% who killed someone and are sorry for it and there´s a chance that they can rehabilitate, to them society makes some kind of accommodation and gives them a second chance. Killers like Marc Dutroux and Michel Fourniret are the exception I think and they should be locked away forever. We had our last serial killer here in the early 90s. What about the US ? Serial Killers every week like in Phoenix, in Colorado with 50 victims...So i ask you what is wrong in the US ? Maybe now you can understand the european situation a bit better

[Tender Branson]

New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FPÖ - 6,5%
BZÖ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

[Tender Branson]

New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FPÖ - 6,5%
BZÖ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

A result like this one would mean a SPÖ/Green coalition?

With the BZÖ and HPM not in parliament it would either be a ÖVP-SPÖ coalition, SPÖ-Green or ÖVP-Green. ÖVP-Green is a likely possibility after the elections. In polls Austrians favor a Grand Coalition, then ÖVP-Green over SPÖ-Green.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FPÖ - 6,5%
BZÖ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

A result like this one would mean a SPÖ/Green coalition?

With the BZÖ and HPM not in parliament it would either be a ÖVP-SPÖ coalition, SPÖ-Green or ÖVP-Green. ÖVP-Green is a likely possibility after the elections. In polls Austrians favor a Grand Coalition, then ÖVP-Green over SPÖ-Green.

Wouldn't both the SPÖ and the Greens prefer to form a coalition with each other? Or do they fear a possible backlash? Is the Red-Green coalition really that unpopular?

During the campaign everyone is working against each other and the real coalition agreements will be made after the election. During the campaign the Greens denounced the Social Democrats as "weak" and that they are doing everything to lose the election and therefore made the Conservatives their main target. So, there are no real preferences among the Greens. Ideologically they are more on the SDs side but we never had a Red-Green Coalition here, so i don´t know if they want a coalition with the SD instead of the Conservatives. We have a ÖVP-Green coalition in Upper Austria which is doing very well. Together with Salzburg it has the lowest unemployment rate in Austria at 3%. So, people like black-green.

Other news:

HPM got the obligatory signatures in 6 of the 9 states to be on the ballot on Oct 1.

The Communist Party (KPÖ) got the signatures in 4 states.

The Freedom Party (FPÖ) got all 2.500 signatures to be on the ballot.

The sign. deadline is August 25.

Another new poll came out today:

NEWS-Market

ÖVP - 40%
SPÖ - 34%
Greens - 11%
FPÖ - 7%
HPM - 4%
BZÖ - 3%

Currently the BZÖ would not be in the parliament.

And there will be 12 debates between the parties starting Sept. 5.

[Tender Branson]

12? Within three weeks? Wow. Won't the public become rather tired of it soon? I imagine that the TV ratings will be very low in the end.

LOL. Indeed. Normal people aren´t interested in that and I too will watch just the debates incl. ÖVP, SPÖ and Greens, as will do many others.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

The parties will start their intensive campaign next week, beginning with the Social Democrats on August 26 in Vienna. The Conservatives will start their official campaign 1 week later on Sept. 2 in Graz, the capital of Styria, which is a "swing state" this year.

On Thursday there was a major blow for the Conservatives because in the elections to the Austrian Broadcasting Company CEO their backed incumbent lost to the Social Democratic backed candidate.

The SD made clear today that they will only enter a coalition with the Greens or the Conservatives. The Freedom Party said it will probably stay in opposition after the elections.

So, therefore i expect either a Grand Coalition, Red-Green or Black-Green.

So far it´s very quiet when it comes to campaign issues. A big theme will be "Home Care" of elderly people, which is done mostly illegally by foreigners of the poor eastern Europe. It´s about the same story with your illegal immigrants issue ... Other major issues will be the economy, unemployment, ...

[Tender Branson]

The so called "Wahlkabine (polling booth)" is online again. It´s similar to the German "Wahlomat" which tells you what party fits you best by filling out questions to different issues. Those who speak German can try it out if you like to

www.wahlkabine.at

[Tender Branson]

The questions from the "Wahlkabine" are: (You can say yes, no, dunno and then you can weight the question if it is important to you or not)

1 ) Should the federal voting age be lowered to 16 ?

2 ) Do you think there should be a limit of 100 mph on parts of Austrian highways ?

3 ) Should public space (parks, public transport, public buildings) be controlled by video surveillance ?

4 ) Are you in favor of the liberalisation of shopping hours ?

5 ) Are you in favor of the decriminalization of soft drugs like dope and cannabis ?

6 ) Are you in favor of the cancellation of the Eurofighter jets ?

7 ) Are you in favor of party campaign money getting funded federally only when they have at least 50% women in the parliament club ?

8 ) Should workers with higher income pay more for the Social Security System ?

9 ) Are you in favor of limitation by law of federal campaign money for parties ?

10 ) Should tuition fees for universities by abolished again ?

11 ) Do you favor a EU-membership of Turkey ?

12 ) Should children with low German speaking skills be tought sperately in own classes ?

13 ) Should there be tougher federal control of banks ?

14 ) Are you in favor of a basic income ?

15 ) Should the number of representatives in the Austrian Parliament be lowered ?

16 ) Should long term unemployed be forced to make some kind of community service ?

17 ) Are you in favor that the different forms of Austrian schools should be merged into a comprehensive school ?

18 ) Are you in favor of electronic shackles for criminals who are on parole ?

19 ) Should the Child Benefit be retained ?

20 ) Should the wearing of visible religious symbols by public servants be allowed ?

21 ) Should art which is polarizing society be funded federally ?

22 ) Should Austria put more money into aid for developing countries?

23 ) Are you in favor that members of unions can be a member of parliament for any party in the future ?

24 ) Are you in favor of deportation of criminal people which do not have Austrian Citizenship and regardless of their time of residence in Austria ?

25 ) Should the federal government fund the rail traffic more than the street traffic ?

26 ) Should the independant Austrian Broadcasting Company be controlled more stricly by the parliament ?

What are your opinions ?

[Tender Branson]

I did the early vote without indicating the importance of the questions. So now i did and the Result is:

Communists 94
Greens (which i´m probably voting for) 57
BZÖ 42
ÖVP 34
SPÖ 14
FPÖ -110

This is far the better result than presviously because i´m left leaning and would support either a Red-Green, Black-Green or Grand Coalition, but i want the Greens in control this year.

[Tender Branson]

Too bad they didn´t include Hans-Peter Martins List, because he will get around 4%+, but anyway nobody wants to have him in the next government. At least not for now. Today the FPÖ said they could form a coalition with the Social Dems but only when the Governor of my state Gabriele Burgstaller (SD-Salzburg) is made chancellor. She´s very popular here and among Austrian voters but she said she wants to stay governor in Salzburg until 2009. Ok, i will go watch the Champions League Qualification between Salzburg and Valencia now. Go Bulls Go

[Tender Branson]

What are the policies of HPM List? Wiki seems very vague on what he and his party stands for. It seems mostly like an anti-corruption party.

He will release his official campaign programm in 1 week, but it will focus on direct democracy, to uphold the Neutrality of Austria, fair economic policy and jobs, environment protection and animal protection, referendum on the EU-consititution and as you said anti-corruption measures in politics. But even his homepage is very vaguely about it. But i think on 30 August he will have a clear program. He also has the 2.600 signatures needed to be on the ballot. He has more than 8.000 so far.

Also the Communist Party (KPÖ) has all signatures to be on the ballot nationwide. And the Socialist Left Party (SLP) has the 500 needed in Vienna (they will only stand there).

Plus a new poll came out today:

News-Market

ÖVP - 38%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 10%
FPÖ - 7%
BZÖ - 4%
HPM - 4%
Others - 1%

Could be a tight race for 1st place now !

[Tender Branson]

6 ) Are you in favor of the cancellation of the Eurofighter jets ? Don't know what this means

We are buying 18 new Eurofighter Jets for our military for about 2,5 Bio. $ and the opposition mainly SPÖ, Greens says it´s either too expensive, we don´t need them because today you don´t need any fighters because we are surrounded by friendly EU-neighbors and the contract has too many flaws etc. while the Conservative government says we need them to defend our neutrality by law and our constitution says that we also have to provide neccessary air control and we can´t do this with 50 year old Drakens. Btw i voted no, we should buy them. It´s always good to see them at air shows

[Tender Branson]

For States:
FPÖ 85
ÖVP 75
BZÖ 60
SPÖ -65
Grüne -105
KPÖ -185

Whats the difference between the FPO and the OVP?

The main difference is that the FPÖ is very nationalist and populist. For example they have agressive anti-immigrant and asylum policies, tough policies on criminals, they are against the EU-membership of Turkey and they are sceptical of Austria being in the EU, while the ÖVP is very much in favor of the European Union. While the FPÖ opposed the EU Constitution, the ÖVP was the main force to ratify the EU constitution. Some of the FPÖ´s founders were former Nazis and with Jörg Haider´s comments about the Nazi-Era strengthened it´s far-right position. Therefore it resulted in the sanctions after the 99 elections, because the ÖVP entered a coalition with them. Then in 2005 the parties comitted political suicide in my opinion by splitting them up. While the FPÖ is popular among blue collar workers and attracting much of the Social Dems votes, the ÖVP attracts mainly business people and farmers.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday it turned out that the castle in which our Secretary of Commerce, Martin Bartenstein from the Conservative ÖVP is living and having his campaign headquarter as well as a company, was a former Sub-Concentration Camp from the Nazis. He said immediately that he didn´t know anything of it. He will "consider" applying a memorial table for the victims there.

For me it´s very strange that someone, whos entirely family lived there didn´t know what was going on in that castle. But i don´t think this will have much impact on the election.

[Tender Branson]

Here´s my prediction of the outcome on Oct. 1:



Black = ÖVP (Conservative) win
Red = SPÖ (Social Democrats) win

A look back at the 2002 results:

State                                                             ÖVP                    SPÖ

Burgenland                                                  42 %                  46 %
Kärnten (Carinthia)                                      31 %                  38 %
Niederösterreich (Lower Austria)                 48 %                  37 % 
Oberösterreich (Upper Austria)                    43 %                  37 %
Salzburg                                                       47 %                  31 %
Steiermark (Styria)                                       45 %                  37 %
Tirol (Tyrol)                                                   52 %                  25 %
Vorarlberg                                                    49 %                  20 %
Wien (Vienna)                                              31 %                  44 %

I think Styria will be very close this year because the SD won the state elections last year and therefore predict a narrow win for the SD.

Salzburg also went SD in 2004, but recent polls have the ÖVP at 45-50% there, as is the case in Upper Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Today the preliminary number of eligible voters were released. In Austria you don´t need to register to vote. Everyone who is 18 at the time of the election and has an Austrian Citizenship is eligible to vote.

This year there are 6.108.044 Austrian eligible voters out of a population of about 8.280.000. In 2002 there have been 5.912.592 voters. This represents an increase of 3% over the last 4 years and that roughly 74% of all Austrians are able to vote this year.