Austrian Election - October 1, 2006

[Middle-aged Europe]

My personal preferences for a post-election coalition:

1) SPÖ/Greens

2) ÖVP/Greens

3) Grand coalition

4) No government/coalition, Austria is made a part of Germany again (beats any coalition which incluces FPÖ or BZÖ )

5) Austria is annexed by Hungary

6) ÖVP/BZÖ

7) ÖVP/FPÖ

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think H-P Martin has officially announced his attention to participate in the election... under the name "Liste Dr. Martin - für Demokratie, Kontrolle, Gerechtigkeit" [roughly translated... "Ticket Dr. Martin - for democracy, checks (as in checks and balances), justice"].

Well, I'm counting now three parties (FPÖ and BZÖ being the other two) who are fishing for protest and anti-establishment votes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FPÖ - 6,5%
BZÖ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

A result like this one would mean a SPÖ/Green coalition?

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Poll:

15-08-2006: Fessel-GfK

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 36%
Greens - 11,5%
FPÖ - 6,5%
BZÖ - 3,5%
HPM - 3,5%

A result like this one would mean a SPÖ/Green coalition?

With the BZÖ and HPM not in parliament it would either be a ÖVP-SPÖ coalition, SPÖ-Green or ÖVP-Green. ÖVP-Green is a likely possibility after the elections. In polls Austrians favor a Grand Coalition, then ÖVP-Green over SPÖ-Green.

Wouldn't both the SPÖ and the Greens prefer to form a coalition with each other? Or do they fear a possible backlash? Is the Red-Green coalition really that unpopular?

[Middle-aged Europe]

During the campaign everyone is working against each other and the real coalition agreements will be made after the election. During the campaign the Greens denounced the Social Democrats as "weak" and that they are doing everything to lose the election and therefore made the Conservatives their main target. So, there are no real preferences among the Greens. Ideologically they are more on the SDs side but we never had a Red-Green Coalition here, so i don´t know if they want a coalition with the SD instead of the Conservatives. We have a ÖVP-Green coalition in Upper Austria which is doing very well. Together with Salzburg it has the lowest unemployment rate in Austria at 3%. So, people like black-green.

Ah, thanks.

And there will be 12 debates between the parties starting Sept. 5.

12? Within three weeks? Wow. Won't the public become rather tired of it soon? I imagine that the TV ratings will be very low in the end.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Without having weighted any question:

Grüne 85
SPÖ 75
KPÖ 70
ÖVP 35
BZÖ -25
FPÖ -75

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yesterday the debate Greens vs. FPÖ took place and it was very weird, because of their contradicting positions on issues. Nearly all parties are now involved in smear campaigning and scandals.

The head of the Greens told the head of the FPÖ he is some kind of neonazi and that he´s surrounded by people with Nazi ideas while the FPÖ head accused members of the Greens to be molotov cocktail throwing extremists and a menace for drivers, because the Greens want to raise the gas price to 9$ the gallon and implement 60 mph even on highways.

Both then said: "Tomorrow our attorney will ring your doorbell and we will sue you !" The discussion ranged from accusations of diffamation and agitation of immigrants to denial of reality in cases of legalizing same sex marriages and some sort of basic income etc.

In other news, the SPÖ is involved in a major corruption scandal. A former investment banker from a union admitted giving "some thousand Euros" to the social democrats back in the 90s. The ÖVP is accusing the SDs to decieve the Austrian people and the SDs accuse the ÖVP to carry out a negative campaign. Indeed a Social Democrat governor described the ÖVP as a cancer cell. He later had to apologize.

The campaign debates are very poor when it comes to real issues like unemployment etc. and i think it´s now entering the phase where anyone tries to destroy the other party

Sounds fun.   Apparently, Austrian politics are much more interesting than German politics under the current Grand boring coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sounds fun.   Apparently, Austrian politics are much more interesting than German politics under the current Grand boring coalition.

Well having a neo-fascist party in parliament usually does that.

Just see what type of insanity would ensue if the NPD got into the Bundestag.

Ah, on the other hand this might not be such a good idea after all.


Well, I admit, this NPD leader from Mecklenburg who complained on election night that Adolf Hitler is always portrayed so negatively and that it should  be looked from a more objective point of view upon him had something almost cartoon-esque. But such moments of Nazis unintentionally parodying themselves are coming for a far too high price as they should be allowed to sit in a parliament in return.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Austria's minister of justice, who's from the BZÖ, announced her intention to leave the party today, citing the BZÖ's xenophobia as the main reason.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the BZÖ is in: Grand coalition.
If the BZÖ is out: Red-Green.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?

Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the ÖVP to vote against the government together with BZÖ and FPÖ to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.

That's not what I meant. The question is not whether it would be a good idea to install some form of minority government... my point is whether it would be a very wise of the SPÖ and Greens to let their coalition be tolerated by the FPÖ of all things.

This would be similar to a CDU/FDP minority government tolerated by the PDS in Germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?

Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the ÖVP to vote against the government together with BZÖ and FPÖ to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.

Well, as Jens pointed out, Austrians for the most part blame the ÖVP for the shutdown of the SPÖ-ÖVP Coalition talks. And they are more "used" to the joint SPÖ-Green-FPÖ proposal in parliament to install a investigation comittee of the Eurofighters than they are used to the upholding of the purchase of the Jets proposed by the ÖVP. I have to correct myself: Yesterday I posted that the Austrians are evenly split between buying and cancelling the Jets. Today I´ve read that the oppose buying them by 60-40. So it seems the ÖVP is clearly on the defense. The credibility of SPÖ-Greens and FPÖ you´ve adressed isn´t really at stake now, because they have the population's opinion on their side. Greens and FPÖ are just working together on the Eurofighter jets, but when it comes to real coalition talks between both, I doubt Greens and FPÖ would ever work together.

Yes, but except for the whole Eurofighters thing is there much else SPÖ/Greens and FPÖ agree on? I mean, I don't see much common ground to justify such a constellation... even if the FPÖ is only tolerating SPÖ/Greens, without joining a formal coalition. The mere opposition to the Eurofighters isn't constituting much basis for any form of medium-term or even long-term cooperation. Is the FPÖ supposed to elect an SPÖ chancellor simply on the grounds that he's oppsing the Eurofighters? That's what I meant.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A Minority Government is what the ÖVP is pokering for. They assume it would break into pieces within a year, therefore giving the ÖVP enough time co consolidate its power and surge ahead of the SPÖ in new elections.

A year?? That long?

[Middle-aged Europe]

How about ÖVP - FPÖ - BZÖ? Or a minority government of ÖVP with one of the two FPÖ-remnants, tolerated by the other one?

As far as I know the leaders of FPÖ and BZÖ literally hate each other on a personal level. Party A thinks they were betrayed by party B and vice versa.