Austrian Election - October 1, 2006

[Kevinstat]

From the poll Mark Warner 08 cited, it looks like the SPÖ and Greens are collectively leading the ÖVP and FPÖ, with the BZÖ right at the 4% threshold for being included in Parliament.  So if the BZÖ receives less than 4% of the vote in the next parliamentary election and the numbers for the other parties stay right about where they are, it seems likely that the SPÖ and Greens could form a majority coalition government, even if the ÖVP won the most votes of any individual party.  The ÖVP wouldn't have much ground to complain as they formed a coalition with the FPÖ in 1999 when the SPÖ won the most votes of any individual party.

The polling numbers could certainly change though, and if the BZÖ declines even further that would likely boost the FPÖ and/or ÖVP numbers which could help them vis-a-vis an SPÖ-Greens coalition.

Also, if the Greens could be part of a two-party coalition with either the SPÖ or the ÖVP, would the Greens definitely prefer a coalition with the SPÖ (besides perhaps concerns about its narrowness if it would hold an extremely narrow majority and one with the ÖVP would hold a less narrow majority) or is it not that clear?  Also, how receptive would the ÖVP and the FPÖ be to a coalition between just the two of them (if they overtake the SPÖ and Greens and the BZÖ fails to stay in parliament).  Did Schüssel drop his coalition agreement with the FPÖ simply because it no longer controlled a majority after Haider & company's defection and the rump parliamentary FPÖ was no longer necessary (and perhaps not expelling them from the coalition would have led to difficult relations with the BZÖ), or did Schüssel actually have ideological/personal reasons for preferring a coalition agreement with the Haider camp to the Strache camp?  And regardless of Schüssel's reasons for not keeping the FPÖ in the government, how receptive would the Strache be to a coalition with the ÖVP without the BZÖ?  I assume he would prefer a coalition not including the BZÖ to one including them, and that Haider would likely feel the same way toward his old party, but how receptive would Strache and Haider be to a coalition with each other's parties and the ÖVP if that coalition but no coalition of two of those parties controlled a majority?  I know you, Mark Warner 08, have already talked about the possible coalitions that might be formed, but I'm curious as to some of the preferences that might be made if parties had a choice of coalitions.  Some of those preferences might not be clear at this point, and it's fine for you to tell me that too.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

The final seat count is:

SPÖ: 68
ÖVP: 66
Greens: 21
FPÖ: 21
BZÖ: 7

Has that been confirmed to be right now that the official (or at least not just preliminary) result of the absentee ballot count (and thus the overall count) has come in?  I thought perhaps the SPÖ might loose a seat and/or the ÖVP gain one, but I haven't done any calculations.

[Kevinstat]

Vorarlberg:

ÖVP: 54,9%
SPÖ: 16,9%
FPÖ: 13,0%
Greens: 10,2%

Current opinion polls for the Vorarlberg 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 50%
ÖVP: 17%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 6%

What has the ÖVP state government done to the people of Voralberg that its support has plummeted so significantly?  My guess is there must have been a major exposing of corruption or other big scandal of some kind.

Also, were any of the state parliamentary elections cited in your post held after Jörg Haider split with the FPÖ and formed the BZÖ?  It would be interesting if the BZÖ was pulling support from the FPÖ after an earlier election which the two parties contested.  I imagine most of the FPÖ members of the Carinthian state parliament elected in the last state election are now BZÖ members, as Haider is still listed as the Governor of Carinthia in Wikipedia.