Rasmussen: George Allen leads James Webb by 10%

[opebo]

Webb is a fortunate candidate - he has the wind at his back from 1) VA's continued move to the Democrats, 2) Bush/Republican fatigue, and 3) the fact that Allen is such a Bush clone.

[Galactic Overlord]

The conservative base does not like McCain, so it is hardly a given primary voters will be looking to vote for him.  If he gets the nod, it'll only be because everyone else is so weak.

Allen's campaign manager is also an experienced hand, he ran campaigns for Senators Wayne Allard (in 1996 and 2002), John Thune (in 2004) and Conrad Burns (in 2000).  Allen himself is also well known and not unpopular among Virginians, so I really don't see a Webb win here, or even a close loss. 

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

The thing that most worries about Webb's chances is that Allen has boatloads of capital...Webb pretty much has three bucks. I know that will change but there will always be a wide gap in this race. Also I wouldn't be shocked if the RNC's main goal for the election become protecting Allen instead of protecting Santorum.

[Keystone Phil]

Also I wouldn't be shocked if the RNC's main goal for the election become protecting Allen instead of protecting Santorum.

Are you kidding? Listen, I know everyone is in love with this Webb guy. He'll have the Dems locked up, he'll break into the moderate vote because of the anti-Bush sentiment and he even has a shot at some conservatives. Yeah, the guy is an attractive candidate but he is so over-hyped. To put it simply, he is the Erskine Bowles of 2006.

I could understand if Allen had some scandal or was just an unpopular guy but the ratings show that he is fairly popular. The polls show the Senator with approval ratings above 50%. Allen can survive national problems. Allen can survive Warner's endorsement of Webb. Speaking of endorsements, all Allen has to do is bring out the picture of Webb and Allen together that Harris Miller used in one of his primary ads. Put that up in an ad with something like "Webb has received some big name endorsements but let's not forget Webb's own endorsement of George Allen just six years ago." Everytime Warner is mentioned they can deflect it by switching the direction to who Webb himself backed.

Bottom line - Unless Allen is tied to some scandal or becomes personally unpopular within the next few months, he has very little to worry about. No way will he become the GOP's main concern. If he was running against Warner, he'd have some real problems. Warner's words only go so far unless he is a candidate so don't expect his campaigning for Webb to have a huge impact. Allen win by more than ten points, too, and I'm sure of that.

[© Tweed the Younger]

See Dole, BushI, BushII, etc.  It's certainly McCain's turn at this point, and he's certainly ahead in the polls. 

Yeah, but all of those candidates were supported by the establishment. I doubt we'll see the establishment of the GOP embracing McCain like they have done in the past with the candidates you have mentioned.

I think they will, especially if Bush remains unpopular.  If Bush rebounds, Allen's chances increase.

[Gustaf]

He is still above 50%, which makes him very hard to beat. Still, this could hurt Allen's chances in 2008.

I think Warner is enough of a long-shot already that he should gamble - if Webb really has a chance, which I doubt.

What do you mean Warner is enough of a long shot?

Warner's chances of getting the nomination are so poor, I suspect, that he should take a chance. He has nothing to lose.

How do you figure his chances are so poor?

Because he is a little known moderate one-term Governor of a Republican state. While most of these are good qualities for winning the general, they're not when it comes to the primary. Clinton is the big favourite right now.

[Gustaf]

He is still above 50%, which makes him very hard to beat. Still, this could hurt Allen's chances in 2008.

I think Warner is enough of a long-shot already that he should gamble - if Webb really has a chance, which I doubt.

What do you mean Warner is enough of a long shot?

Warner's chances of getting the nomination are so poor, I suspect, that he should take a chance. He has nothing to lose.

How do you figure his chances are so poor?

Because he is a little known moderate one-term Governor of a Republican state. While most of these are good qualities for winning the general, they're not when it comes to the primary. Clinton is the big favourite right now.

Because polls at this point are all about name recognition. Who at this point in 2002 was thinking Kerry would get the nod? How about 1998 for Bush? 1994 for Dole? 1990 for Bill Clinton? I believe that as the primaries approach, Hillary will give way to Warner, Richardson, or Clark.

While that is true, Hillary is still the favourite, despite that and Warner is not even the favourite to take her out.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

He is still above 50%, which makes him very hard to beat. Still, this could hurt Allen's chances in 2008.

I think Warner is enough of a long-shot already that he should gamble - if Webb really has a chance, which I doubt.

What do you mean Warner is enough of a long shot?

Warner's chances of getting the nomination are so poor, I suspect, that he should take a chance. He has nothing to lose.

How do you figure his chances are so poor?

Because he is a little known moderate one-term Governor of a Republican state. While most of these are good qualities for winning the general, they're not when it comes to the primary. Clinton is the big favourite right now.

Because polls at this point are all about name recognition. Who at this point in 2002 was thinking Kerry would get the nod? How about 1998 for Bush? 1994 for Dole? 1990 for Bill Clinton? I believe that as the primaries approach, Hillary will give way to Warner, Richardson, or Clark.

While that is true, Hillary is still the favourite, despite that and Warner is not even the favourite to take her out.

Then who is? Its certainly Warner, Feingold or Edwards.

[Gustaf]

He is still above 50%, which makes him very hard to beat. Still, this could hurt Allen's chances in 2008.

I think Warner is enough of a long-shot already that he should gamble - if Webb really has a chance, which I doubt.

What do you mean Warner is enough of a long shot?

Warner's chances of getting the nomination are so poor, I suspect, that he should take a chance. He has nothing to lose.

How do you figure his chances are so poor?

Because he is a little known moderate one-term Governor of a Republican state. While most of these are good qualities for winning the general, they're not when it comes to the primary. Clinton is the big favourite right now.

Because polls at this point are all about name recognition. Who at this point in 2002 was thinking Kerry would get the nod? How about 1998 for Bush? 1994 for Dole? 1990 for Bill Clinton? I believe that as the primaries approach, Hillary will give way to Warner, Richardson, or Clark.

While that is true, Hillary is still the favourite, despite that and Warner is not even the favourite to take her out.

Then who is? Its certainly Warner, Feingold or Edwards.

My point is that we like Warner but he's not nationally known at all and he will have been out of office for a total of 3 years by 2008 and will have served only 4 years in a major position. I think he needs to strengthen his position and this could be a way of doing it.