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Author Topic: Oregon, Pennsylvania & Missouri Polls updated  (Read 2945 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: June 05, 2004, 01:37:50 pm »
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.

« Last Edit: July 07, 2004, 05:05:12 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2004, 02:56:09 pm »
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Good luck, Vorlon Smiley

*waits for results*
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2004, 03:05:40 pm »
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I too wish you luck Vorlon! And I can't wait to see all the results.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2004, 03:07:21 pm »
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me too. When do you think they will be done? Tonight?
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2004, 03:13:11 pm »
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me too. When do you think they will be done? Tonight?

Tonight? - you smoking crack again? Cheesy
darn and they said no one would notice Cheesy
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2004, 05:50:57 pm »
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Vorlon, I thought the map in your signature meant what would happen if the election were held today.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2004, 05:53:25 pm »
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beet IL and CA would switch before DE.
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2004, 05:57:08 pm »
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beet IL and CA would switch before DE.

Not necessarily, it depends on how strong the base is. The cities in IL and CA are a very strong base for Kerry. But the DE prediction is a guesstimate. Most likely this state will be pretty close.

Here's a good site, the chart on the bottom summarizes various polls composites:

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm
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agcatter
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« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2004, 05:57:27 pm »
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Yeah, Missouri is really a mystery now.  We need a good mason-Dixon poll out of that state.
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« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2004, 05:58:33 pm »
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PA was one of the first states to start showing an unnamed Democrat beating Bush. I'm confident we'll keep it.
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01/05/2004-01/10/2014
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« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2004, 06:01:29 pm »
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As a Republican, I've never counted on winning Penn and I don't feel good about the state now.  Feeling decent about Ohio but not Pennsylvania.  Just don't think it's in the cards for Bush.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2004, 06:04:05 pm »
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The link you provide proves my point: CA and IL are listed as one category less sure for Kerry from DE.  The only discrepancy with this map is that they factor in the whack NJ and MD polls showing them as being anywhere as near as close as WA, AZ, CO, or MI.  There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Bush will come within 5 points of taking either MD or NJ.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2004, 06:05:28 pm »
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That rasmussen poll showing Bush up +7 was done more than 2 months ago on 3/23, right around the time when all the Iraq crap was just starting, so the new +1 poll probably reflects that. As the Iraq crap dies down, Bush will probably go back up to where he was, that is until (or unless) Kerry starts really hammering his campaign.

Vorlon: Ok, I just asked b/c you had Oregon slight Kerry on your map but said its slight Bush. That state is probably as close as any state right now.

Heres another good site, it was linked from the other site

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/
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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2004, 06:29:07 pm »
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If Nader fails to make the ballot, which looks likely, Oregon will be at least leaning Kerry.
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01/05/2004-01/10/2014
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2004, 06:43:01 pm »
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I'm most interested in the status of Michigan, West Virginia, Florida, and Arkansas.
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this is real
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2004, 07:37:35 pm »
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Vorlon, as usual outstanding analysis.

Damn, this guy is the absolute best.  I know which website I'll be glued to on election night!!

 
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GOPhound
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« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2004, 07:41:51 pm »
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By the way, just a quick question.  Are you sensing that the GOP lock on the South is slipping?  I'm starting to think that if Edwards is picked for VP, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Virginia, and Missouri become true tossups.

Conversely, I see Oregon, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and possibly some of the Great Lakes states trending GOP.

Thanks.

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