Perot vs. Bush 1992 Two-Way Race

[Olin D. Johnston]

What if Perot won the Dem. Nomination and it was a two-way race between Perot (D)  and Bush (R)? Who wins?

[Lincoln Republican]

Welcome to the forums.

A landslide for Bush.

Perot is confined to only the rock solid Democratic states.  In the final analysis, Perot is seen as somewhat of a loose cannon by a good majority of voters, and as a fruit cake by many, and not really as Presidential material. 

Bush          432
Perot          106

[CPT MikeyMike]

Winfield - I usually agree with your assements but this time you missed the target BIG TIME.

Let's not forget that Bush was pulling about a 30-35% approval rating in late 1992. Also, Perot, a former Republican would pull some liberal Republicans and would draw more independants to his side. I think Bush does better in a two way race but still loses his re-election bid.

Perot - 309  51%
Bush - 229  48%

[adam]

Odd scenario, considering that Ross wasn't a democrat.

Either way, I agree with Mikey.

[ATFFL]

Bush was also beign outspent by his opponents 2-1 and both of them ran a Bash Bush campaign.  Without that, his support would likely haev been higher.  Possibly even pushing 50%

[Lincoln Republican]

Mikey, I like the part of your post stating "I usually agree with your assessments" 

However, I stand suitably chastened and put in my place. 

Thank you.

But honestly, for the life of me, I do not believe America would ever elect a fruit cake like Perot as President.     

[Boris]

Perot wins. The Anti-Incumbency factor is way too high in 1992 for Bush to prevail. The GOP's entire campaign was based upon attacking Clinton's character, and with him gone, they really don't have much of a campaign theme. Unless of course you count experience, which Perot "refuted" in one of the 1992 debates.

[ATFFL]

Perot wins. The Anti-Incumbency factor is way too high in 1992 for Bush to prevail. The GOP's entire campaign was based upon attacking Clinton's character, and with him gone, they really don't have much of a campaign theme. Unless of course you count experience, which Perot "refuted" in one of the 1992 debates.

There is also the fact that Perot was pretty loopy.  If people paid more attention to him, it would be a bigger factor.

[YRABNNRM]

Welcome to the forums.

A landslide for Bush.

Perot is confined to only the rock solid Democratic states.  In the final analysis, Perot is seen as somewhat of a loose cannon by a good majority of voters, and as a fruit cake by many, and not really as Presidential material. 

Bush          432
Perot          106

Winfield, do you ever post a scenario where the GOP loses?

[WalterMitty]

Welcome to the forums.

A landslide for Bush.

Perot is confined to only the rock solid Democratic states.  In the final analysis, Perot is seen as somewhat of a loose cannon by a good majority of voters, and as a fruit cake by many, and not really as Presidential material. 

Bush          432
Perot          106

Winfield, do you ever post a scenario where the GOP loses?

yeah.  just go look for the spitzer vs. weld thread.    ouch. 

[True Democrat]

Welcome to the forums.

A landslide for Bush.

Perot is confined to only the rock solid Democratic states.  In the final analysis, Perot is seen as somewhat of a loose cannon by a good majority of voters, and as a fruit cake by many, and not really as Presidential material. 

Bush          432
Perot          106

Illinois is not a rock solid Democratic state in 1992, and neither is Vermont.

[CPT MikeyMike]

True but I think Bush would have lost those states to Perot in '92.

[Lincoln Republican]

Welcome to the forums.

A landslide for Bush.

Perot is confined to only the rock solid Democratic states.  In the final analysis, Perot is seen as somewhat of a loose cannon by a good majority of voters, and as a fruit cake by many, and not really as Presidential material. 

Bush          432
Perot          106

Winfield, do you ever post a scenario where the GOP loses?

I do, and thanks for asking.

Edwards over Chafee on 3/20/06
Warner over Allen on 2/7/06
Warner over Brownback on 1/21/06
Warner over Romney on 1/14/06
Henry Jackson over Edward Brooke (1976) on 12/20/05
Franklin Roosevelt over Herbert Hoover (1932) on 12/6/05
Warner over Pawlenty on 12/14/05
Warner over Giuliani on 12/6/05

As has been mentioned, Spitzer over Weld, NY Governor 2006

There are others, but I haven't taken the time to go back and find all of them.

[adam]

Welcome to the forums.

A landslide for Bush.

Perot is confined to only the rock solid Democratic states.  In the final analysis, Perot is seen as somewhat of a loose cannon by a good majority of voters, and as a fruit cake by many, and not really as Presidential material. 

Bush          432
Perot          106

Winfield, do you ever post a scenario where the GOP loses?

I do, and thanks for asking.

Edwards over Chafee on 3/20/06
Warner over Allen on 2/7/06
Warner over Brownback on 1/21/06
Warner over Romney on 1/14/06
Henry Jackson over Edward Brooke (1976) on 12/20/05
Franklin Roosevelt over Herbert Hoover (1932) on 12/6/05
Warner over Pawlenty on 12/14/05
Warner over Giuliani on 12/6/05

As has been mentioned, Spitzer over Weld, NY Governor 2006

There are others, but I haven't taken the time to go back and find all of them.

Any that don't involve Mark Warner, historical figures, or liberal Republicans?

[Lincoln Republican]

Nit Picker!

Evan Bayh over Gordon Smith on 6/22/05
Evan Bayh over George Pataki on 7/22/05