TX Gov: Kinky in 2nd behind weakening Perry (Survey USA)

[adam]

Governor Rick Perry (R) - 35%
Kinky Friedman (Independent) - 21%,
Chris Bell (D) - 20%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (Independent) - 19%

Perry falling, Kinky rising, Strayhorn in last...happy day.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

If Kinky Friedman can become the Governor of Texas, ladies and gentlemen, the American dream is still alive.

[adam]

If Kinky Friedman can become the Governor of Texas, ladies and gentlemen, the American dream is still alive.

Don't count him out.

Considering that he has risen from 8% to  21%....I would say there is hope.

[jokerman]

Kinky+Strayhorn>Perry

Interesting.

[WMS]

OK, I want a Mason-Dixon poll now for TX Governor to sort all this out.

[Soaring Eagle]

If Bell dropped out and endorsed Kinky, he might have a chance.

[Jacobtm]

Kinky+Strayhorn>Perry

Interesting.

Any 2 of them together have more support than Perry.

Just wonder if Bell or Strayhorn dropped out, who their supporters would tend to defect to? It seems Democrats would probably be more likely to go for Kinky, but Strayhorn supporters might grudingly vote Perry...

[Harry]

Bell is climbing in the polls too...maybe a huge upset win for Bell is brewing?

Remember, there are THREE Republicans in this race...

[© Tweed the Younger]

Bell is climbing in the polls too...maybe a huge upset win for Bell is brewing?

Remember, there are THREE Republicans in this race...

Kinky certainly isn't a Republican.

[adam]

Bell is climbing in the polls too...maybe a huge upset win for Bell is brewing?

Remember, there are THREE Republicans in this race...

Kinky certainly isn't a Republican.

Nope, he voted for Clinton in 92' and said he would have in 96' but he was touring outside of the country. There are two Republicans with Perry being the more moderate of the two.

[Jacobtm]

Bell is climbing in the polls too...maybe a huge upset win for Bell is brewing?

Remember, there are THREE Republicans in this race...

I'd love if someone I knew shared that opinion. I'd totally lay down a bet with them.

[Nym90]

I'd much rather Friedman win than Perry if that's what it comes down to, so this is good news.

[jimrtex]

Governor Rick Perry (R) - 35%
Kinky Friedman (Independent) - 21%,
Chris Bell (D) - 20%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (Independent) - 19%

Perry falling, Kinky rising, Strayhorn in last...happy day.

There was a big change in the education level between this poll and the one in may:

Grad School 30% +5%
College Graduate 28% +4%
Some College  32% -9%

Is this typical of polling like this (600 likely voters, random phone dialing).

[Grad Students are the Worst]

It seems to me like college graduates would be even less likely to vote for Friedman, so that surprises me.

[jimrtex]

It seems to me like college graduates would be even less likely to vote for Friedman, so that surprises me.

No College: Perry 51, Bell 17, Strayhorn 16, Friedman 9
Some College: Perry 35, Friedman 22, Strayhorn 22, Bell 15
College Graduate: Perry 35, Friedman 27, Bell 18, Strayhorn 17
Grad School: Perry 32, Bell 27, Friedman 19, Strayhorn 17.

An interesting gender gap for independents:

Perry: M 38%, F 33%
Bell: M 21%, F 19%
Friedman: M 25%, F 17%
Strayhorn: M 14%, F 25%

[adam]

No College: Perry 51, Bell 17, Strayhorn 16, Friedman 9

I find this one suprising. Could this be due in part to a lack of political awareness?

[Vasall des Midas]

No College: Perry 51, Bell 17, Strayhorn 16, Friedman 9

I find this one suprising. Could this be due in part to a lack of political awareness?

Probably. Perry is pretty much better known than the other three candidates taken together. [/hyperbole]
Another important factor is of course that Perry is likely to take a bigger chunk of the Hispanic vote than the White vote.

[adam]

No College: Perry 51, Bell 17, Strayhorn 16, Friedman 9

I find this one suprising. Could this be due in part to a lack of political awareness?

Probably. Perry is pretty much better known than the other three candidates taken together. [/hyperbole]
Another important factor is of course that Perry is likely to take a bigger chunk of the Hispanic vote than the White vote.

From what I have learned living in this state, the politically unaware youth automatically default to either the Democrat or the Republican depending on their upbringing, considering the booming TX Republican culture...you get the idea. However you are right. Perry's firm support of affirmative action and "security eventually" outlook on immigration probably does push a large chunk of the hispanic vote towards him.

[WMS]

Governor Rick Perry (R) - 35%
Kinky Friedman (Independent) - 21%,
Chris Bell (D) - 20%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (Independent) - 19%

Perry falling, Kinky rising, Strayhorn in last...happy day.

Upon reflection, I wouldn't get too enthusiastic, Vlad...a Survey USA poll with 576 Likely voters and a 4% MOE, and a 21-20-19 split amongst the three at the bottom...basically a tie. It certainly wouldn't lead me to think any of the three challengers to Perry should drop out and endorse any of the other candidates.

[Sam Spade]

OK, I want a Mason-Dixon poll now for TX Governor to sort all this out.

I've never seen a Mason-Dixon poll of Texas, ever.  The only polls I've seen do Texas are Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Scripps Howard (not a quality poll, btw).

[Grad Students are the Worst]

OK, I want a Mason-Dixon poll now for TX Governor to sort all this out.

I've never seen a Mason-Dixon poll of Texas, ever.  The only polls I've seen do ...Mason-Dixon...

...

[Sam Spade]

OK, I want a Mason-Dixon poll now for TX Governor to sort all this out.

I've never seen a Mason-Dixon poll of Texas, ever.  The only polls I've seen do ...Mason-Dixon...

...

This is what happens when you try to post at the same time as being slightly intoxicated.

[WMS]

OK, I want a Mason-Dixon poll now for TX Governor to sort all this out.

I've never seen a Mason-Dixon poll of Texas, ever.  The only polls I've seen do Texas are Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Scripps Howard (not a quality poll, btw).

OK, who's the best of the groups that do poll Texas, then?

[adam]

OK, I want a Mason-Dixon poll now for TX Governor to sort all this out.

I've never seen a Mason-Dixon poll of Texas, ever.  The only polls I've seen do Texas are Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Scripps Howard (not a quality poll, btw).

OK, who's the best of the groups that do poll Texas, then?

I would say Rasmussen, as far as state politics are concerned they are usually very close. SUSA is alright, but their polls always seem to slant to the left.

[Sam Spade]

OK, I want a Mason-Dixon poll now for TX Governor to sort all this out.

I've never seen a Mason-Dixon poll of Texas, ever.  The only polls I've seen do Texas are Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Scripps Howard (not a quality poll, btw).

OK, who's the best of the groups that do poll Texas, then?

I had to look some of this up and I can't some of the other data (like 2002 Governor)

In 2004, SUSA pretty much nailed Texas, with a prediction of Bush +22.  Scripps Howard was at Bush +26, still within MOE, but not as good.  Rasmussen's last poll in Texas was August 26, and showed Bush +19.  That's quite to long ago for me to count.

In 2002, SUSA said Cornyn +7, it was Cornyn +12.  Zogby did even worse, saying Cornyn +1 (one of typically bad ones that year).  Two media outlets did their own (I think the Dallas Morning News through Scripps-Howard), with Cornyn +9, and the Houston Chronicle did one with Cornyn +6.

In 2002 Governor, I don't remember the exact totals, but Zogby actually did pretty well here (go figure).  So did SUSA.

So, in conculsion, the Zog should poll Texas, but buyer beware.  Rasmussen has a non-existant record.  Scripps-Howard is better than I remember it being, but SUSA is probably the best.

That still doesn't mean I'll ignore its often wild and strange swings.