Rasmussen NJ Poll

[MAS117]

New Jersey 2004  

Presidential Ballot
 
Bush 39%
Kerry 51%
Other 6%
Not Sure 4%
RasmussenReports.com

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

sounds about right and much more likely than those crappy uni polls showing it being close.

[classical liberal]

what's the date on this poll?

[agcatter]

May 1st thru May 30th.  

[emergingDmajority1]

about what it should be

[Smash255]

Wow! Kerry only has (about) a 10% margin over Bush. It may sound like a long shot, but I think Bush could take NJ.

LOL I hope that was sarcastic.  The next thing your going to say is Bush will take CT & NY also

[classical liberal]

DC, MA, RI, NY, HI, CT, NJ, MD, and DE will only go GOP if there is no Democrat running.

[agcatter]

Even then it might be close.

[classical liberal]

true

[© Tweed the Younger]

Bush will get a 7-8% Boost in NY and a 5-6% boost in NJ because of 9-11, but regardless, NY won't be within 15% and NJ within 10%.

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

Wow! Kerry only has (about) a 10% margin over Bush. It may sound like a long shot, but I think Bush could take NJ.

I also hope that's sarcastic. If a poll showed Bush up by "only" about 10% in Georgia, would any Democrats be saying Kerry has a good shot at Georgia?

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

Bush will get a 7-8% Boost in NY and a 5-6% boost in NJ because of 9-11, but regardless, NY won't be within 15% and NJ within 10%.

There was a Quinnipiac poll awhile ago that showed Kerry getting over 80% in NYC.

[© Tweed the Younger]

There was a Quinnipiac poll awhile ago that showed Kerry getting over 80% in NYC.

He won't get 80% in NYC.  He will in the Bronx, but Bush will get about 40% in SI.

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

That's around 2000 numbers. Remember though that Staten Island only has about 400k people, that's about 1/20 of NYC's population. Little effect on the total vote.

I predict Kerry will get at least 75% in NYC though. I doubt any 9/11 effect is still there. I doubt it'll effect the suburbs or Long Island either. In 2002, Steve Israel's opponent was a former firefighter who had to retire due to lung damage he sustained on 9/11. Gore carried the district easily, but Israel barely won in 2000, and the district was previously held by Lazio and had a long history of being Republican. Israel should've been vulnerable, and he was facing a 9/11 hero, yet he still won with 57%. If that happened, I can't see anything happening in NYC, especially when you consider Bush is probably considered no 9/11 hero by at least half the population.

[Smash255]

That's around 2000 numbers. Remember though that Staten Island only has about 400k people, that's about 1/20 of NYC's population. Little effect on the total vote.

I predict Kerry will get at least 75% in NYC though. I doubt any 9/11 effect is still there. I doubt it'll effect the suburbs or Long Island either. In 2002, Steve Israel's opponent was a former firefighter who had to retire due to lung damage he sustained on 9/11. Gore carried the district easily, but Israel barely won in 2000, and the district was previously held by Lazio and had a long history of being Republican. Israel should've been vulnerable, and he was facing a 9/11 hero, yet he still won with 57%. If that happened, I can't see anything happening in NYC, especially when you consider Bush is probably considered no 9/11 hero by at least half the population.

Long Island has definatley shifted left.  Bush SR won both Nassau & Suffolk Counties by double digits in 1988, lost Nassau by 6 in 1992, won Suffolk by 2 in 1992.  In 2000 Gore won both counties by dounle digits (Nassau by 19%, Suffolk by 12%).  The northern Suburbs of NYC has seen a similar shift from right to left.

At one point Long Island which has 5 Congressional District had 4 Republicans, and 1 Dem, in the late 90's it was 3 Republican, 2 Democrats (later switched to 2-2-1, as one of the Republicans whose name I can't remember at the moment switched to Independet in 1999.  After the 2000 election the Dems had 3 seats in the House, the Republicans had 2 ( Republicans lost the Lazio district to Isreal, the Republican that switched to Independednt whose name I can't recall was replaced by Republican Felix Grucci).  In 2002 Grucci lost to Dem Tim Bishop.  The region now has 4 Democrats (Ackerman, McCarthy, Isreal and Bishop) with 1 Republican which unfortunley is in my district (Peter King).  Ackerman's district (district #5 which was the only district the Dems had all along) is actually shared between Nassau County & Queens.   The Nassau portion of the district is also heavily Democrat so its a district that would have been Dem all along even without Queens)   Anyway Long Island has 4 districts to themselves which not that long ago was 4 to 0 in favor of Republicans (before Caroline McCarthy) and 3 to 1 as late as 1999 in favor of Republicans is now 3 to 1 in favor of the Dems.  The region included Ackerman's shared district was 4 to 1 Republicans about 10 years ago, and 3 to 2 as late as 1999 in favor of Republicans is now 4 to 1 in favor of Dems.  Both Nassau & Suffolk counties had long standing Republican County Excecutives, both excecutives now are Democrats (Suozzi won in 01 taking over Nassau Co after Republican Tom Gullotta left office, or was forced out due to his own misanagement) and Democrat won in an election last year after Republican Robert Gaffney stepped down after 3 terms).

Anyway thats a whole bunch of babble so sorry if its hard to understand.  Anyway my point was the NYC suburbs will not be close again this year and the region has shifted more Democratic over the last 10 years

As far as NYC goes 75% is definant for Kerry 80% is possible

Gore only had about 52% in Staten Island, but its only 5% or so of NYC's population,  Queens which is about 25% of NYC's populationor a little more  had Gore @ 75%, Manhattan which is a little more than 20% of NYC's population had Gore at 80%, Brooklyn the most populated at a little less than 30% had Gore at 81%, and the Bronx which makes up about 20%  of NYC's population or slightly less had Gore at 86%