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Author Topic: Bush 48 - Kerry 42 in Louisiana  (Read 15547 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: June 06, 2004, 06:39:54 pm »
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Interesting....

Dramatically different from other polls, could be a freak sample, but given the source I would NOT toss this poll out.

Click Here for Details

« Last Edit: June 06, 2004, 06:41:43 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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TexasGurl
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« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2004, 06:42:21 pm »
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Did anyone even expect Kerry to win LA.?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2004, 06:45:48 pm »
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Did anyone even expect Kerry to win LA.?

Back in February I put it on my "states to watch" list, but that's just me.
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TexasGurl
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« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2004, 06:46:25 pm »
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heh i never even considered it winnable.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #4 on: June 06, 2004, 06:52:30 pm »
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heh i never even considered it winnable.

Down 6, is still down 6%, and Kerry has been playing down there all on his own.  "Winnable" might be a stretch.

At minimum, it makes Bush defend his base which is never a good thing.

Could also be a blip sample, the other polls have Bush up 10% +
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« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2004, 08:53:41 pm »
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It was probably the only southern state to buck the republican trend in 2002...re-electing a democrat to the senate...and putting the Ds in the statehouse.

such an odd state really.
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« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2004, 10:15:13 pm »
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It was probably the only southern state to buck the republican trend in 2002...re-electing a democrat to the senate...and putting the Ds in the statehouse.

such an odd state really.

Louisana is also the heaviest Democratic state (in terms of registered voters) and most Catholic state in the South.  Louisana Dems tend to vote Republican more than Dems in other states and Louisana Dems tend to be a bit more Conservative, but the registration advantage is still their and Bush's shift rightward could have turned off some of the Conservative Dems (the group of Dems who were the most likley to be behind Bush)  that feel he has gone too far to the right
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« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2004, 10:33:22 pm »
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It was probably the only southern state to buck the republican trend in 2002...re-electing a democrat to the senate...and putting the Ds in the statehouse.

such an odd state really.

Louisana is also the heaviest Democratic state (in terms of registered voters) and most Catholic state in the South.  Louisana Dems tend to vote Republican more than Dems in other states and Louisana Dems tend to be a bit more Conservative, but the registration advantage is still their and Bush's shift rightward could have turned off some of the Conservative Dems (the group of Dems who were the most likley to be behind Bush)  that feel he has gone too far to the right

What issues really has Bush swung far to the right on? If you ask me he is not to the right ENOUGH. Smiley
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2004, 03:21:49 am »
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48-42 seems about right... winnable for Kerry but not top-tier winnable
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2004, 09:37:34 am »
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48-42 seems about right... winnable for Kerry but not top-tier winnable

In that case Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota are "winnable" as well.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2004, 11:18:11 am »
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48-42 seems about right... winnable for Kerry but not top-tier winnable

In that case Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota are "winnable" as well.

Bush *can* win NJ or MN (don't think he will though) but the demographics of MD make it a no-no.
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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2004, 11:54:32 am »
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48-42 seems about right... winnable for Kerry but not top-tier winnable

In that case Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota are "winnable" as well.

Bush *can* win NJ or MN (don't think he will though) but the demographics of MD make it a no-no.

I wish my homestate would get their better senses and go Republican for once.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2004, 12:01:41 pm »
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48-42 seems about right... winnable for Kerry but not top-tier winnable

In that case Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota are "winnable" as well.

Bush *can* win NJ or MN (don't think he will though) but the demographics of MD make it a no-no.

I wish my homestate would get their better senses and go Republican for once.

The Demographics (Blacks+White Liberals) make it very unlikely, except in a landslide.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2004, 01:24:49 pm »
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i hate to sound llike a broken record....but perhaps you kerry supporters should pass along a one word message to the kerry campaign: OHIO.

forget these quixotic adventures in arkansas and louisiana.  kerry needs to set his priorities straight.
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« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2004, 02:32:07 pm »
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In that case Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota are "winnable" as well.

Minnesota is winnable for Bush.  But Maryland and New Jersey?

MD: Gore by 16.3%
NJ: Gore by 15.9%

MD is out of the question unless Bush gets 56-57% of the nationwide PV.  But lets look at NJ.

Lets give Bush a HUGE 4% boost in NJ for 9-11.  That brings it down to 12%.  Bush still needs 55% of the nationwide PV to win NJ.
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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2004, 02:36:16 pm »
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i hate to sound llike a broken record....but perhaps you kerry supporters should pass along a one word message to the kerry campaign: OHIO.

forget these quixotic adventures in arkansas and louisiana.  kerry needs to set his priorities straight.

He is concentng on Ohio and has spent more money in Ohio than any other state, that doesn't mean he shouldn't try & go after WV, Arkansas or Louisana though especially when all the WV & AR polls show them close (and the latest WV in Kerry's favor) with LA getting closer
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2004, 05:08:58 pm »
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his organization in ohio...quite frankly, sucks.  
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Gustaf
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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2004, 05:31:26 pm »
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Interesting...but not all that suprising. This is in line with the 2000 result. I also think it's good by Kerry to open up new fronts. He badly needs it...LA, AR, WV...whatever longshots he can find.
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TexasGurl
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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2004, 06:17:27 pm »
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i read that david duke might enter the senate race in LA.
wonder what effect that might have.he normally draws double digits i think.
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« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2004, 07:59:44 pm »
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A six-point spread will likely be Bush's margin of victory in LA.

A comment about the Senate race: I'm not following it closely, because nobody in LA cares about it, not even Wayne Parent of John MacGinnis.

Oddly enough, Chris John is polling poorly; he is coming in third or fourth place to Vitter (white Jindal), Kennedy (who is NOTHING like his distant Massachusetts relatives), and even Ieyoub (typical Democrat). Hopefully the Cajuns feel that they have enough control by viture of the governor's seat, but I doubt it.

If I even bother to vote during the runoff, I would go for Kennedy. A Rodney Alexander type Democrat in the Senate named "Kennedy" should be make a great six-year laugh.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2004, 07:06:53 am »
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i read that david duke might enter the senate race in LA.
wonder what effect that might have.he normally draws double digits i think.

It wouldn't matter, it would still go to a runoff, and it would be Vitter v. Kennedy or John.

I have a question...if the top two candidates in the primary are Democrats, and they get under 50%, is there still a runoff?
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2004, 07:20:26 am »
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i read that david duke might enter the senate race in LA.
wonder what effect that might have.he normally draws double digits i think.

It wouldn't matter, it would still go to a runoff, and it would be Vitter v. Kennedy or John.

I have a question...if the top two candidates in the primary are Democrats, and they get under 50%, is there still a runoff?

Yep
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2004, 03:10:04 pm »
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Ok, thanks Al Smiley
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« Reply #23 on: June 26, 2005, 11:31:14 am »
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i hate to sound llike a broken record....but perhaps you kerry supporters should pass along a one word message to the kerry campaign: OHIO.

Wow. WalterMitty nailed it.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #24 on: June 27, 2005, 12:28:56 pm »
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In that case Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota are "winnable" as well.

Minnesota is winnable for Bush.  But Maryland and New Jersey?

MD: Gore by 16.3%
NJ: Gore by 15.9%

MD is out of the question unless Bush gets 56-57% of the nationwide PV.  But lets look at NJ.

Lets give Bush a HUGE 4% boost in NJ for 9-11.  That brings it down to 12%.  Bush still needs 55% of the nationwide PV to win NJ.

State-by-state vote results can swing, irrespective of the national swing.  The national popular vote swing in 2000 was roughly 3% towards Republicans.

Take New Jersey:

2000: Gore by 15.9%
2004: Kerry by 6.7%

My guess is that if the race would have been 53%-46%, Bush would have probably won New Jersey.
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