Associated Press/Ipsos: Mfume (D) leads Steele (R) and leads Cardin.

[Mike in Maryland]

Because he can lose African American votes to Steele. And some liberals might now come out.

Perhaps, but as I noted, he can lose at least a quarter of them and still lead decisively.  I doubt he'd lose much more once the general election gets engaged and Steele is shown to be a likely vote for most of the Bush agenda.  Same thing for liberals; I don't think they'll sit on their hands and not vote, especially if the race is close.  Whatever issues they have with Cardin pale next to the much less appealing alternative of giving the GOP an extra vote.  For his lead to melt away almost totally there would have to be massive black, liberal, and other Democratic defections, and I think that prospect is mostly Republican wishful thinking, at least for now.

As for Ehrlich, I'm trying to square his decent approval rating with the fact that in the last poll he trailed O'Malley by a significant margin.  The only reason I can think of is that the Republican label hurts, though I suspect that that race will tighten once Ehrlich fully engages in a defense of his own record and criticizes O'Malley's Baltimore record.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But like I said before, Republicans targeting this race as a top tier battleground state and do to Republicans winning in statewide races before, like Ehlrich, this will come down to undecided votes, and no lead is safe in MD, VA, NJ, and PA. Just like every poll has Casey up by 18 and Zogby has Casey up by 6. All the seats are competetive because they share media markets, and undecided voters will make the difference.

And since Steele having been Lt. Governor, his appeal to white conserv evangelicals can make  a dent in the Cardin or Mfume machine. But I still think Dems win by 3-5 points. That 12 point lead by Cardin is puffed up.

[Mike in Maryland]

But like I said before, Republicans targeting this race as a top tier battleground state and do to Republicans winning in statewide races before, like Ehlrich, this will come down to undecided votes, and no lead is safe in MD, VA, NJ, and PA. Just like every poll has Casey up by 18 and Zogby has Casey up by 6. All the seats are competetive because they share media markets, and undecided voters will make the difference.

And since Steele having been Lt. Governor, his appeal to white conserv evangelicals can make  a dent in the Cardin or Mfume machine. But I still think Dems win by 3-5 points. That 12 point lead by Cardin is puffed up.

There aren't as many white religious conservatives in MD as in many other swing states, and I suspect that Steele already has them.  Anyhow, my current prediction is that Cardin, if nominated, wins by about 54-45 or 53-46, while I think Mfume wins by about 51-48, aided by a high black turnout.
I still have this as Leans Democratic in my predictions; same for Pennsylvania, now that you mention it, though I don't think Casey will win by 18.  By about 10 seems a more realistic option.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But you have Ehlrich winning.

[Mike in Maryland]

But you have Ehlrich winning.

I base that on the fact that Ehrlich has his own record to sell to voters, while Steele must persuade voters to give President Bush's party and agenda an extra Senate vote, a tougher task given the state's national Democratic tilt and Bush's unpopularity.

Actually, I have the governor's race as a tossup and am considering shifting it to O'Malley.  It's easy to make arguments for either candidate winning.

[ATFFL]

If Mfume loses the primary, Cardin's chances rest heavilyon how Mfume deals with the loss.  If he comes out and campaigns for Cardin, Cardin should win by a decent margin.  If he goes quietly into the night, Cardin has the edge, but Steele could take it.  If Mfume alleges racism and turns on Cardin, this race could be a tossup, or even lean Steele if Mfume is loud enough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that this race is a tossup now, but lean towards the Dems.  And depends on the money that Kweisi Mfume has. Yes, if Cardin wins the primary he will have a cash advantage.  But Mfume wins he might not, and cause it to be competetive.  I rate this as tossup until Cardin has the lead again in the primary.

[Eraserhead]

Go Cardin Go!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mfume will win. Cardin is going to have to go negative to catch up.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Everyone really needs to calm down.

ISPOS used to be a reputable pollster (and still is in Canda) BUT since receiving ther AP contract, its polls in the United States have pretty consistently been well to the left of (reputable) polls.

Its really not suprising.

ISPOS wants to keep the AP contract and will give them the results they want.

AP would rather have left-wing results than election accurate results.

[TeePee4Prez]

Awesome!  Go Mfume, the candidate I've backed since the beginning.

2) If Cardin is not nominated, Mfume loses to Steele

Polls have consistently shown Mfume beating Steele for months.  Steele is crazy and won't win in November.

WHY?  Bad enough we have NJ to defend against the bumbling Kean Jr., but if Mfume wins we now have MD to defend.  Not good, we need money elsewhere.  Cardin is a slam dunk for us.

[MissCatholic]

We dont need another Rick Santorum in Washington.

[AuH2O]

Mfume can't win the Dem primary. I've said it for like a year. He has a base of support, so it was never going to be a blowout, but there just aren't enough black voters to give him a plurality.

If he gets all hot and bothered after losing...

[Eraserhead]

Cardin will pull it off, Mfume comes off like  a doofus.

[Virginian87]

Cardin is going to win this primary, enough said.  This poll must be an outlier.  I don't see how Mfume can win this based on black people alone.  He comes off as a radical to me, and he should be perceived that way by a majority of Maryland voters.