Associated Press/Ipsos: Mfume (D) leads Steele (R) and leads Cardin.

[OC]

New Poll: Maryland Senator by Associated Press/Ipsos on 2006-06-25

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

1.) Who is Mfume ?
2.) Why is he or she leading Cardin ?
3.) Why is this race a tossup now ?
4.) Why is Mfume ahead of Cardin, when Cardin does a lot better against Steele ?

*wondering*

[OC]

Mfume is the former NAACP chairman. He resigned over a dispute with Bond over the treatment of Bush. And he is running well because of the black vote in Baltimore.

[opebo]

Senator Mfume would be great!

[Democratic Hawk]

Seems to be a two-edged sword facing Democrats this Fall:

1) If Mfume is not nominated, Cardin loses African Americans to Steele
2) If Cardin is not nominated, Mfume loses to Steele

Nominate Cardin and hope any loss among African Americans to Steele is offset by gains among whites. Neverthless, I hate the roll race plays in politics. I'd rather Maryland Democrats unite behind whoever of the two is the eventual Senate candidate but Cardin, I believe, will be the best bet for retaining the Senate seat and it's a seat Democrats can't afford to lose

Dave

[Adlai Stevenson]

Steele will not win against either Cardin or Mfume.  I think it would be good to get two more black Senators this election.  As polling shows Mfume leads Steele I am not worried, this is Maryland we are talking about.  Black voters would not give Steele significant numbers of support and Mfume is not going to lose the white vote to Steele.  Though I am surprised to find Mfume leading Cardin; I suppose more blacks vote in the Democratic primary than whites do and they are energised behind Mfume.

[ian]

Before we take this too seriously, it is an AP/Ipsos poll, which have a history of being terrible.  Past polls have shown Cardin ahead of Mfume, if I remember correctly.

[Harry]

Awesome!  Go Mfume, the candidate I've backed since the beginning.

2) If Cardin is not nominated, Mfume loses to Steele

Polls have consistently shown Mfume beating Steele for months.  Steele is crazy and won't win in November.

[OC]

Kweisi Mfume is best on Minimum wage and getting out of the war in Iraq and Cardin isn't that good on the key issues.

[nini2287]

Steele is crazy

Is he less crazy than Mfume?

[??????????]

Mfume is the former NAACP chairman. He resigned over a dispute with Bond over the treatment of Bush. And he is running well because of the black vote in Baltimore.

Yes, and MFume is a major race baiter and overall POS.

[Soaring Eagle]

Seems to be a two-edged sword facing Democrats this Fall:

1) If Mfume is not nominated, Cardin loses African Americans to Steele
2) If Cardin is not nominated, Mfume loses to Steele

Nominate Cardin and hope any loss among African Americans to Steele is offset by gains among whites. Neverthless, I hate the roll race plays in politics. I'd rather Maryland Democrats unite behind whoever of the two is the eventual Senate candidate but Cardin, I believe, will be the best bet for retaining the Senate seat and it's a seat Democrats can't afford to lose

Dave

I don't think Cardin will lose African Americans to Steele. They won't vote for Steele just because he shares their skin color. I also think that Steele would get more of the white vote against Cardin than one might think.

Mfume could lose to Steele, but I doubt it. Maryland would be more likely to elect a left wingnut than a right wingnut.

[Mike in Maryland]

Here's my $.02 (also posted at myelectionanalysis.com):

I think either Democrat will be favored, though Cardin more strongly. Once the general election gets rolling, I think Steele will be shown to be less moderate and independent than he wants us to think he is.

The Democratic primary is shaping up as competitive, but I wonder if Mfume is really as strong as the WP poll makes him seem. He has a devoted base among blacks and some liberals, but the poll shows that he may have tapped that out with most African-Americans already in his corner. Cardin lags in name recognition, particularly in the Washington area (where I live, and where I have yet to get any mailings or automated phone calls from any Senate candidate.) Since Cardin has a much larger campaign treasury, he may well be in a better position to pick up the large undecided vote (about 1/3 of the total) and move clearly ahead as he becomes better known.

In the general election, the racial issues are somewhat hard to predict. Steele has said he needs a quarter of the black vote to win, but the poll showed him getting that against Cardin and losing by 10 points. At that rate he’d need about 40% or more of blacks, and I find that somewhat improbable. An Mfume-Steele matchup would be closer largely because many moderate whites who lean to Cardin would instead defect to Steele if Mfume is nominated, though I think Mfume’s total would be at least a couple of points better than what the “likely voter” polls say. Traditionally, black voters have turned out at a substantially lower rate than whites and so I think are underrepresented in likely voter surveys. However, enthusiasm for Mfume would likely change that.


I find the racial split here somewhat disconcerting, though the division is not the candidates' faults; both Cardin and Mfume have been carefully and sometimes eloquently campaigning in colorblind terms.  (And calling a black man a race baiter while praising the Confederacy and denouncing Abraham Lincoln is really rich.  LOL)

[??????????]

(And calling a black man a race baiter while praising the Confederacy and denouncing Abraham Lincoln is really rich.  LOL)

I think you supporting Mfume and O'Malley is far far more rich. Though which one is a bigger joke? Mfume or O'Malley? Hard to decide really. MFume could be a joke because he was the head of the racist NAACP or you could consider O'Malley a bigger joke because he lies about lowering the crime rate in Baltimore which is complete fiction.

[Mike in Maryland]

(And calling a black man a race baiter while praising the Confederacy and denouncing Abraham Lincoln is really rich.  LOL)

I think you supporting Mfume and O'Malley is far far more rich. Though which one is a bigger joke? Mfume or O'Malley? Hard to decide really. MFume could be a joke because he was the head of the racist NAACP or you could consider O'Malley a bigger joke because he lies about lowering the crime rate in Baltimore which is complete fiction.

I didn't say I favored Mfume; I'm actually leaning to Cardin, but not firmly decided.  I will support either in November.  As to O'Malley, I'm also undecided there; I could conceivably vote for Ehrlich.

[??????????]

(And calling a black man a race baiter while praising the Confederacy and denouncing Abraham Lincoln is really rich.  LOL)

I think you supporting Mfume and O'Malley is far far more rich. Though which one is a bigger joke? Mfume or O'Malley? Hard to decide really. MFume could be a joke because he was the head of the racist NAACP or you could consider O'Malley a bigger joke because he lies about lowering the crime rate in Baltimore which is complete fiction.

I didn't say I favored Mfume; I'm actually leaning to Cardin, but not firmly decided.  I will support either in November.  As to O'Malley, I'm also undecided there; I could conceivably vote for Ehrlich.

Well I'm glad to see your not lockstepping with the other mindless Maryland Democrats. Welcome to the forum.

[OC]

Also, Hotline said that either way, Cardin or Mfume will have a tough race against Steele.  Hotline says that Cardin will lose some black support to Steele and Mfume would lose conserv catholics to Steele. And both will be very close to Steele.  Mfume is currently tied to Steele. Cardin may be 12 points ahead, but Hotline said that it isn't going to be that lopsided. They said it come down to swing voters in MD on election day, and they predicted before long, Cardin would only lead by 1.  The NJ, PA, MD, and VA media markets are linked together, and everytime you are a Dem or Republican, if you have a competetive race it will come down to the undecided votes thats why Allen has a race on his hands.

[Mike in Maryland]

Also, Hotline said that either way, Cardin or Mfume will have a tough race against Steele.  Hotline says that Cardin will lose some black support to Steele and Mfume would lose conserv catholics to Steele. And both will be very close to Steele.  Mfume is currently tied to Steele. Cardin may be 12 points ahead, but Hotline said that it isn't going to be that lopsided. They said it come down to swing voters in MD on election day, and they predicted before long, Cardin would only lead by 1.  The NJ, PA, MD, and VA media markets are linked together, and everytime you are a Dem or Republican, if you have a competetive race it will come down to the undecided votes thats why Allen has a race on his hands.

Sounds like Hotline is reading Republican talking points.  I wonder if they realize just how Democratic Maryland is, all other things being equal, or just how unpopular the Bush administration and the national GOP are here.

For a state that's so close to Washington, this analysis sounds like it was written by partisans who can't find it on a map.

[??????????]

Sounds like Hotline is reading Republican talking points.  I wonder if they realize just how Democratic Maryland is, all other things being equal, or just how unpopular the Bush administration and the national GOP are here.

For a state that's so close to Washington, this analysis sounds like it was written by partisans who can't find it on a map.

Maryland is only "really Democratic" in three places. The entire rest of the state is pretty heavily republican.

[OC]

Yea Mike,  Annapolis is very Republican.  It is mostly Democratic presidentially, but in State races Republicans are more competetive. And all hotline was saying was that MD, VA, NJ, and PA, are not safe seats, the minority party in those 4 states can be competetive.

[Mike in Maryland]

Sounds like Hotline is reading Republican talking points.  I wonder if they realize just how Democratic Maryland is, all other things being equal, or just how unpopular the Bush administration and the national GOP are here.

For a state that's so close to Washington, this analysis sounds like it was written by partisans who can't find it on a map.

Maryland is only "really Democratic" in three places. The entire rest of the state is pretty heavily republican.

Those three places (Montgomery Co., Prince George's Co., and Baltimore City) are about 40% of the total population.  The only heavily Republican areas are Western MD, most of the Eastern Shore, and some exurbs, which only make up about 25% of the total.  That leaves suburban Baltimore counties like Baltimore Co. (separate from the city), Howard, and Anne Arundel to determine the balance, and these are swing-voting areas winnable for either party.  

But since the heavily Democratic areas are larger than the heavily GOP areas, the Republicans have to sweep the table and run up huge margins in the swing areas to win.  Gov. Ehrlich did this in 2002, winning, for instance, 61% of the vote in Balt. Co. and 65% in Anne Arundel, for a narrow 52-48 win statewide.  But two years later President Bush lost Balt. Co. narrowly (about 52-48) and won AA by 56-44, a split showing, but lost statewide 56-43.

[Mike in Maryland]

Yea Mike,  Annapolis is very Republican.  It is mostly Democratic presidentially, but in State races Republicans are more competetive. And all hotline was saying was that MD, VA, NJ, and PA, are not safe seats, the minority party in those 4 states can be competetive.

I think that Republican competitiveness in statewide races is harder to replicate in federal-level races where an unpopular GOP president is more of an issue (I've said this in the prediction threads.)  Given that, if Ehrlich loses reelection (a 50-50 chance, I think) I find it hard to see Steele doing better absent some special mistake by the Democratic candidate.

The general election could well be competitive, but I don't know where Hotline got that "Cardin by only 1" business from, since the polls show him leading pretty healthily even with a sizable number of black defections. 

[OC]

Because he can lose African American votes to Steele. And some liberals might now come out.

[OC]

I think the hotline was saying that it is not a safe seat. I guess that's all they were saying. And Mike if you think that Ehlrich is unpopular you have him winning.

[??????????]

Sounds like Hotline is reading Republican talking points.  I wonder if they realize just how Democratic Maryland is, all other things being equal, or just how unpopular the Bush administration and the national GOP are here.

For a state that's so close to Washington, this analysis sounds like it was written by partisans who can't find it on a map.

Maryland is only "really Democratic" in three places. The entire rest of the state is pretty heavily republican.

Those three places (Montgomery Co., Prince George's Co., and Baltimore City) are about 40% of the total population.  The only heavily Republican areas are Western MD, most of the Eastern Shore, and some exurbs, which only make up about 25% of the total.  That leaves suburban Baltimore counties like Baltimore Co. (separate from the city), Howard, and Anne Arundel to determine the balance, and these are swing-voting areas winnable for either party. 

But since the heavily Democratic areas are larger than the heavily GOP areas, the Republicans have to sweep the table and run up huge margins in the swing areas to win.  Gov. Ehrlich did this in 2002, winning, for instance, 61% of the vote in Balt. Co. and 65% in Anne Arundel, for a narrow 52-48 win statewide.  But two years later President Bush lost Balt. Co. narrowly (about 52-48) and won AA by 56-44, a split showing, but lost statewide 56-43.

I think it depends on how determined MD Republicans are. Most of my relatives and friend are MD Republicans and are pretty upset at the chance of Mfume for Senate and O'Malley for gov and many Republicans are ready to show up this year. O'Malley would probably be one of the worst mistakes Maryland could ever possibly make. I know what kind of games Mr O'Malley plays as I have quite a few relatives who work at both very high and low levels of Baltimore City govt.