2006 Dutch election

[Colin]

Would a CDA-VVD-PVV-CU-SGP coalition work?

No. SGP would never be in a coalition and all the other parties would leave that coalition if it joined. They are theocratic Calvinists, even more than yourself Bono, and none of those parties would want anything to do with them.

As for the others getting VVD and CU together would be like herding cats and there is a lot of bad blood between the VVD and Wilders group, though a CDA-VVD-CU-PvdV coalition is somewhat likely. Most likely is that Wilders will provide outside support for a conservative coalition.

[freek]

No. SGP would never be in a coalition and all the other parties would leave that coalition if it joined. They are theocratic Calvinists, even more than yourself Bono, and none of those parties would want anything to do with them.

There were coalition negotiations between CDA, VVD, CU and the SGP in 2003, for the first time in history. However, CDA and VVD preferred to start negotiations with D66 a few days later because of the theocratic SGP-policies.

The SGP supported the CDA/VVD/D66-coalition in parliament though. Even more than D66.

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Wilders left the VVD with quite some noise 2 years ago. The VVD has been in government almost continually since 1977. I think they will go in opposition this time.

Yesterday Rein-Jan Hoekstra (CDA), a member of the Council of State started his work as "informateur". His job is to investigate which coalitions are the most likely to have a stable majority in parliament. It is anticipated that at first CDA, PvdA and SP will start coalition negotiations. The distance between CDA and SP is so large however that a compromise is very unlikely. This will then result in coalition talks between CDA, PvdA and CU, somewhere next January or February.

[Angel of Death]

Final results

[freek]

Or use http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/ for tables and maps

[Angel of Death]

If instead Sainte-Laguë was used, CDA and PvdA would both have lost a seat in favor of PvvD and EénNL, the latter who is now not represented in Parliament at all.

[freek]

If instead Sainte-Laguë was used, CDA and PvdA would both have lost a seat in favor of PvvD and EénNL, the latter who is now not represented in Parliament at all.

For EénNL to enter parliament, another article in electoral law needs to be changed. The Netherlands DOES have an electoral threshold. Probably the lowest one in the world, but it does exist.

It is 1/150th of all valid votes, or 0.666%. This year this compares to 65,592 votes, this means that EénNL is 2,763 votes short. This results in a 6th place on the ranking of parties closest to winning 1 seat in parliament, since 1937.

http://www.nlverkiezingen.com/en/netniet.html

[Angel of Death]

If I also take into account the two list combinations, it wouldn't have made a difference. Of course using Sainte-Laguë, these things can backfire and would probably not exist then.

[WMS]

This will then result in coalition talks between CDA, PvdA and CU, somewhere next January or February.

What do you think the odds of this coalition forming are?

[freek]

This will then result in coalition talks between CDA, PvdA and CU, somewhere next January or February.

What do you think the odds of this coalition forming are?

There are two problems to solve:

1. PvdA lost a lot of votes to the SP. When PvdA is the most leftwing party of the government, and the SP is in opposition, the PvdA might be an easy target for the SP. Does the PvdA want to take the risk?

2. The CU has pretty firm stances on issues as abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage and working on Sundays. Are they able to accept compromises on these issues?

[WMS]

This will then result in coalition talks between CDA, PvdA and CU, somewhere next January or February.

What do you think the odds of this coalition forming are?

There are two problems to solve:

1. PvdA lost a lot of votes to the SP. When PvdA is the most leftwing party of the government, and the SP is in opposition, the PvdA might be an easy target for the SP. Does the PvdA want to take the risk?

2. The CU has pretty firm stances on issues as abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage and working on Sundays. Are they able to accept compromises on these issues?

Ah, thanks for the information. I guess we shall wait and see...

[minionofmidas]

2. The CU has pretty firm stances on issues as abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage and working on Sundays. Are they able to accept compromises on these issues?

I suppose all these things are legal in the Netherlands - do they want them all outlawed right away?

[freek]

I suppose all these things are legal in the Netherlands - do they want them all outlawed right away?
[/quote]

Yes. That is what their program says.

[freek]

Yesterday Rein-Jan Hoekstra (CDA), a member of the Council of State started his work as "informateur". His job is to investigate which coalitions are the most likely to have a stable majority in parliament. It is anticipated that at first CDA, PvdA and SP will start coalition negotiations. The distance between CDA and SP is so large however that a compromise is very unlikely. This will then result in coalition talks between CDA, PvdA and CU, somewhere next January or February.

We are running ahead of schedule. Yesterday the SP concluded that the distance between them and and CDA is too large. SP leader Marijnissen needed only one meeting with CDA leader Balkenende to come that conclusion. He didn't even try to find a compromise.

This means that there will be a beauty contest between GreenLeft and ChristianUnion for the position as third party in the coalition, with CDA and PvdA.

Especially CU is gearing up for coalition talks. Last week CU leader Rouvoet said that he was aware that a majority of the Dutch population and a majority in parliament didn't agree on the party's ethical stances.

[Upsilon]

How about PVDA + D66 + CDA ?

[Verily]

D66 has said that they don't want to be in government this time around.

[freek]

D66 has said that they don't want to be in government this time around.

Yeah, D66 tends to lose half of their seats when they are in government. With only 3 seats they would be the smallest coalition party ever. And D66 does not feel that much friendship for CDA.

[freek]

Update: Since New Year's Day, CDA, PvdA and CU are negotiating. The negotiations seem to be going fine, but there is a lot more secrecy than we are used to. In the past, a lot of politicians tended to leak information about the progress, but there is almost complete silence now. It is expected that a coalition agreement will be reached in about 2-3 weeks, which means that there will be a government before the provincial elections March 7.

Speculation about who will be in the cabinet already started. In the Netherlands, cabinet members are not members of parliament, this means that some dark horses will become ministers too.

It is almost for sure that Jan Peter Balkenende will be prime minister again, it is also expected that PvdA leader Wouter Bos will be deputy prime minister and minister of Finance, however Bos said last week that the leader of the PvdA should be in parliament. CU leader Rouvoet will probably remain in parliament, the rest of his party group hardly has parliamentary experience.

CU will have two ministers (probably one with a GPV and one with a RPF background). The "GPV-minister" will be almost for sure be Eimert van Middelkoop, a highly respected senator and former MP. The RPF-minister will be more difficult. Apart from André Rouvoet, there are not really high profile former RPF-members who might be acceptable as minister.

[freek]

It is expected that a coalition agreement will be reached in about 2-3 weeks, which means that there will be a government before the provincial elections March 7.

Still on schedule. The 3 parties have reached a preliminary agreement now, so Balkenende can start forming his fourth cabinet somewhere next week. This will take about 2 weeks at most, so we will have a new government in less than 3 weeks. .

The cabinet will have 16 ministers, 8 CDA (this includes the prime minister), 6 PvdA and 2 ChristenUnie.

[freek]

This will take about 2 weeks at most, so we will have a new government in less than 3 weeks. .

The cabinet will have 16 ministers, 8 CDA (this includes the prime minister), 6 PvdA and 2 ChristenUnie.

And it's final now. The cabinet was sworn in today, as predicted.

Most surprising names:
Camiel Eurlings MEP (CDA), new minister of Transport and Water
 Prof Ronald Plasterk (PvdA), biochemistry professor, prominent atheist and political commentator, new minister of Education & Sciences

[Angel of Death]

I think it would make sense now to just keep using this thread for the provincial elections of March 7 as well (which indirectly determine the makeup of the Senate).

[freek]

I think it would make sense now to just keep using this thread for the provincial elections of March 7 as well (which indirectly determine the makeup of the Senate).

Sounds like a good idea to me.

There have been some polls now and then by regional TV stations, but they are unreliable. A problem is that the provincial elections don't have a high profile (the provinces hardly have any power), and the expected turnout is about 50%.

It is possible that the new coalition doesn't receive a majority in the Senate. This hasn't happened since WWII, so it is not clear what the consequences will be.

Of the parties in the Second Chamber, most take part in all provinces. Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) doesn't take part at all.
The Animal's Party (PvdD) doesn't take part in Zeeland.
SGP doesn't take part in Friesland, Groningen and Limburg.
ChristenUnie and SGP have a combined list in Noord-Holland and Noord-Brabant.

Of the other national parties, the Pim Fortuyn List take part in Zuid-Holland, Overijssel and Gelderland. In numerous other provinces, people elected for the LPF in the provincial parliament, have left the party in the last years, and take part with their own parties.
Also the New Communist Party takes part, in Groningen.

In (almost) every province regional parties take part. Some are already represented in the provincial parliament. Together they elect since 1995 their own Senator.

The number of seats will decrease after these elections. At the moment there are in total 764 seats in the provincial parliaments, this will be 564 after the elections. The election system used is the D'Hondt-system, without an election threshold.

Current composition of the Senate:

CDA 23
PvdA 19
VVD 15
GrLinks 5
SP 4
D66 3
CU 2
SGP 2
LPF 1
OSF 1 (Indepent Senate Fraction, regional parties)

Total 75 seats

Results of the past provincial elections

[freek]

      PS 2003 TK 2006 Prognosis
CDA      28,0      26,6         26,6
PvdA     24,1      21,2         22,3
VVD      18,5      14,6          18,2
SP          5,6       16,6         13,0
GL          6,9         4,6           6,4
LPF         2,9        0,2              -
D66        4,6        2,0            2,1
CU          3,4        4,0            5,8
SGP        2,5        1,6            2,7
CU-SGP  0,5            -               -
PvdD         -         1,8            2,1
PVV           -         5,9               -
Overig    3,0        0,9            0,8

Poll by TNS/NIPO for RTL Nieuws

Expected turnout is 40%.

[freek]

About 25% of the votes counted. So far, the results are comparable to the Second Chamber results last November. The new government keeps its majarity in the Senate, current prognosis says 40 seats out of 75.

CDA 21 (-2)
PvdA 15 (-4)
CU 4 (+2)
========
VVD 15 (0)
SP 12 (+8)
GrLinks 5 (0)
SGP 1 (-1)
D66 1 (-2)
PvdD 1 (new)
Others: 0 (-2)

Personally, I don't believe that SGP loses a seat, the results show that SGP marginally wins. Also, I doubt that the provincial parties lose their Senator.

[Verily]

Might the SGP lose a seat to the CU, though, since they're no longer running candidates jointly and the CU is far more popular and mainstream?

[freek]

Might the SGP lose a seat to the CU, though, since they're no longer running candidates jointly and the CU is far more popular and mainstream?

They are still running candidates jointly in the provinces of Noord-Brabant and Noord-Holland, just like in 2003. In the other provinces SGP and CU took part separately, just like in 2003. The only exception is Friesland, where they took part as CU/SGP in 2003 and CU in 2007 and the province of Limburg, where both CU and SGP didn't take part in 2003 and only CU took part in 2007.

Besides, for the Senate elections, CDA, CU and SGP will probably combine their lists. This will help the SGP.