2006 Dutch election

[freek]

Can someone please change the title? The elections are still 3 months away.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Go VVD!  Perhaps the world's greatest political party.  The international model of Atlasia's PC Party

[afleitch]

LPF or VVD

[freek]

Latest polls:
29/09/2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 1 September 2006)

For the first time in 3.5 years, PvdA isn't the largest party in the InterVIEW/NSS-poll and the CDA seems to make a come back. Apart from LPF and SP, every party is about as popular as they were back in January 2003.

Coalition:

CDA 27.9% - 43 seats (+ 6 seats)
VVD 17.4% - 27 seats (- 5 seats)
D66   1.4% -   2 seats  (no change)

Opposition:

PvdA 27.8% - 43 seats (-4)
SP     11.4% - 17 seats (+3)
LPF     0.6%  -  0  seats (no change)
GroenL 5.1% - 8 seats (no change)
ChristenU 4.3% - 6 seats (no change)
SGP    1.8% -   2 seats (+0)
PVV  0.8%  -   1 seat (-1)
EénNL (OneNL) 0.7% - 1 seat (+1)
Other Parties 0.8% - 0 seats (although the Animal's Party is still close to 1 seat)

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

EénNL is founded by members of the local Rotterdam party "Leefbaar Rotterdam" (Livable Rotterdam), which was led by Pim Fortuyn and became the largest party of Rotterdam in 2002, from scratch. They governed Rotterdam in a controversial LR/CDA/VVD-coalition until the local elections of March 2006. In EénNL they were joined by a breakaway LPF MP and a breakaway VVD MP. In my opinion they have a better chance to survive than both LPF and PVV.

[Colin]

Is PVV Geert Wilders breakaway party?

And who were the two MPs that broke away and joined this EenNL party?

What does that stand for anyway? EenNL?

[Frodo]

I'd vote for the Christian Democratic Appeal, though I would also put the Christian Union in consideration.   

[Colin]

I'd vote for the Christian Democratic Appeal, though I would also put the Christian Union in consideration.   

I didn't know you were a Calvinist theocrat Frodo?

[Frodo]

I'd vote for the Christian Democratic Appeal, though I would also put the Christian Union in consideration.   

I didn't know you were a Calvinist theocrat Frodo?

Based primarily on the brief descriptions given by Red.  I am no expert on political parties outside the United States, and stand by those I deem ideologically compatible with my own beliefs and issue positions, on condition they are not explicitly anti-American. 

[freek]

Is PVV Geert Wilders breakaway party?

Yes. It is the Partij voor de Vrijheid (Freedom Party). I thought it was abbreviated PvdV, but Wilders prefers PVV.

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Anton van Schijndel (VVD). Entered parliament about a year ago, he was the most rightwing VVD MP. He wasn't happy with his 35th place on the VVD list, and left the party. Now he is number 7 on the EenNL-list.

Joost Eerdmans (LPF). One of the best known LPF MPs, MP since 2002. He focused in parliament primarily on criminals (he recently proposed law on the introduction of minimum sentences for murder etc) and animal rights. Number 2 on the EenNL list.

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OneNL. NL being the international abbreviation of the Netherlands.

[freek]

I'd vote for the Christian Democratic Appeal, though I would also put the Christian Union in consideration.   

I didn't know you were a Calvinist theocrat Frodo?

Christian Union is Calvinist, but not theocratic. That's the SGP. Christian Union is more like CDA+.

[Tory]

Why has LPF fallen so far? Is it because the VVD has taken some of it's support?(Verdonk and before a few months ago Hirsi Ali)?

[freek]

Why has LPF fallen so far? Is it because the VVD has taken some of it's support?(Verdonk and before a few months ago Hirsi Ali)?

That's a part of the story. Since its foundation, the LPF has been an unstable party. A lot of internal fighting, about various issues.

Some former LPF voters may vote VVD now, because of Verdonk. Other voters may switch to the PVV of Wilders, or EenNL from Pastors. Both parties have ideas similar to the LPF.

Other former LPF voters may vote SP, also a party with many lower class voters. Or they do the same as former LPF MP Margot Kraneveldt, and return to the PvdA, where many of the former LPF voters came from.

[freek]

The elections are 3.5 weeks away, the campaign is heating up slowly, and it looks like it will be a race between CDA and PvdA about who will be the largest party, just like 2003. When someone would have predicted 6 months ago that CDA could win the elections, he would have been locked away in a madhouse.

Most probable coalition: CDA/PvdA. It will be a "fighting cabinet" for sure, just like the last 3 attempts (Den Uyl 1973-1977, Van Agt-II 1981-1982, Lubbers-III 1989-1994). CDA feels much more at ease when governing with the VVD.

Other possibilities: a CDA/VVD-reprise, PvdA/GrLinks/SP (the horror...) or CDA/VVD/ChristenUnie. However, all 3 lack a majority in the polls.

The polls are stabilising a bit, but the expected traditional downfall of SP a few weeks before the elections has not happened yet. It seems to be happening with the ChristenUnie though.

Latest polls:
27/10/2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 29 September 2006) (2003 results)


Coalition:

CDA 29.8% - 47 seats (+ 4 seats) (2003: 28.6% - 44 seats)
VVD 16.1% - 25 seats (- 2 seats) (2003: 17.9% - 28 seats)

Opposition:

PvdA 27.6% - 44 seats (+1) (2003: 27.3% - 42 seats)
SP     12.4% - 19 seats (+2) (2003: 6.3% - 9 seats)
Fortuyn*    1.2%  -  1  seat  (+1) (2003: 5.7% - 8 seats)
GroenL 3.7% - 5 seats (-3) (2003: 5.1% - 8 seats)
D66   1.8% -   2 seats  (no change) (2003: 4.1% - 6 seats)
ChristenU 2.7% - 4 seats (-2) (2003: 2.1% - 3 seats)
SGP    1.8% -   2 seats (no change) (2003: 1.6% - 2 seats)
PVV (Wilders)  0.5%  -   0 seats (-1) (2003: not participated)
EénNL (OneNL) 0.5% - 0 seats (-1) (2003: not participated)
Partij voor de Dieren (Animal's Party): 1.2% - 1 seat (+1) (2003: 0.5% - no seats)
Other Parties 0.7% - 0 seats

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

* Lijst 5 Fortuyn (short: Fortuyn) is the new name for the Lijst Pim Fortuyn (LPF). 5 is the number of their list, because they were the 5th largest party in 2003. For the first time in 6 months, they win a seat in the polls.

[freek]

In the Netherlands, apart from 10 (out of 500) small municipalities, voting machines are used throughout the country.

Yesterday, the Home Office has revoked the license for a certain type of voting machine, used in 35 municipalities, most notably Amsterdam, Tilburg and Eindhoven. The reason: it was found out that these Windows-PC's emit too much electric radiation (is that the correct word?). These signals carry about 40 metres. With the right equipment and antenna, this can be used to find out what people are voting, thereby violating the right for a secret ballot.

For the other 90% of the machines, the radiation carries only max 5 metres, making it much harder to intercept it. They are still allowed, but there are not enough spare machines available to replace the "illegal" 10%.

This means that at least in Amsterdam, and probably also some other municipalities, paper ballots will have to be used again. Amsterdam just switched to voting machines last March, and they sold their polling booths a few months ago. Now they have to beg the buyers if they can use them again.

The Home Office order this enquiry after a committee founded by ex-hackers found this out. They had some other complaints, they managed to hack one of the voting machines, and rebuilt it in a chess computer. . This and other complaints will also be researched. (http://www.wijvertrouwenstemcomputersniet.nl/English)

Although I don't live in one of the 35 municipalities, it does have some consequences for me. I work in Amsterdam, and I am not able to cast my vote in my home municipality of Groningen (too far away). Since it is not possible to cast an absentee ballot in the Netherlands if you don't live or work abroad, it is possible to request a voter registration card which makes it possible to vote in a random polling station throughout the country. Results are calculated on a national basis anyway, so that is not a problem. This means that I will cast my vote in Amsterdam, and this means that I will have to use a paper ballot for the first time in my  "voting career" (since 1998).

[freek]

10 days to go, and the last few days CDA has gained a lot of momentum. PvdA (and for a bit the VVD) is the party that gets hit all the time. Everything PvdA leader Bos says causes more loss in the polls. He is seen as too slick, making U-turns all the time, and as not trustworthy. He loses votes to both CDA and SP. The SP is almost the third party now, just as big as the VVD.

In the polls the difference between CDA and PvdA is 5%/8 seats.

Latest polls:
10 Nov 2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 27 Oct 2006) (2003 results)


Coalition:

CDA 30.7% - 47 seats (no change) (2003: 28.6% - 44 seats)
VVD 15.3% - 23 seats (- 2 seats) (2003: 17.9% - 28 seats)

Opposition:

PvdA 25.6% - 39 seats (-5) (2003: 27.3% - 42 seats)
SP     12.6% - 20 seats (+1) (2003: 6.3% - 9 seats)
Fortuyn*    0.5%  -  0  seats  (-1) (2003: 5.7% - 8 seats)
GroenL 4.7% - 7 seats (+2) (2003: 5.1% - 8 seats)
D66   1.6% -   2 seats  (no change) (2003: 4.1% - 6 seats)
ChristenU 3.0% - 5 seats (+1) (2003: 2.1% - 3 seats)
SGP    1.7% -   2 seats (no change) (2003: 1.6% - 2 seats)
PVV (Wilders)  1.6%  -   2 seats (+2) (2003: not participated)
EénNL (OneNL) 0.8% - 1 seat (+1) (2003: not participated)
Partij voor de Dieren (Animal's Party): 1.3% - 2 seats (+1) (2003: 0.5% - no seats)
Other Parties 0.7% - 0 seats

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

[freek]

[..]

Latest polls:
10 Nov 2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 27 Oct 2006) (2003 results)

[..]
PvdA 25.6% - 39 seats (-5) (2003: 27.3% - 42 seats)
SP     12.6% - 20 seats (+1) (2003: 6.3% - 9 seats)

[..]

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

It is becoming more and more dramatic for the PvdA...

Yesterday, a new InterVIEW/NSS poll was published. Compared with the Nov 10 poll, there was hardly any change. There was 1 exception though:

In 3 days time, PvdA managed to lose 4.2%, or 6 seats, to 33 seats. On the other hand, the SP won 4.0%, or 6 seats, to a total of 26, making the SP virtually the third party of the Netherlands. The projected move of SP-voters to the PvdA is not happening, instead more and more voters who planned to vote strategically for the PvdA now follow their heart and say they will vote SP.

[freek]

It is not updated with today's poll yet, the changes are not that shocking, but PvdA is increasing to 35 (+4) seats, and SP is decreasing to 24 (-6) seats.

[freek]

I am quite busy today and tomorrow, but I will try to be online as much as possible.

3 links where results will be published tomorrow evening (polls close at 2100CET):

NOS (national television)
Algemeen Dagblad (newspaper)
NRC Handelsblad (newspaper)

[Harry Hayfield]

Apolgies if this may have been posted elsewhere (but it will help when the exit poll is published on Wednesday evening)

Christian Democratic Appeal 29% winning 44 seats
Labour Party 27% winning 42 seats
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 18% winning 28 seats
Socialist Party 6% winning 9 seats
Pim Fortuyn's Party 6% winning 8 seats
Green Left 5% winning 8 seats
Democrats 66 4% winning 6 seats
Christian Union 2% winning 3 seats
Political Reformed Party 2% winning 2 seats
Total Seats 150
Winning Line 76 seats
Christian Democratic Appeal short of an overall majority by 32 seats

[Colin]

Politieke Barometer Poll 11/20

CDA 27.7% 43 Seats
PvdA 23.9% 37 Seats
SP 15.6% 24 Seats
VVD 12.7% 20 Seats
GL 5.0% 8 Seats
CU 3.2% 5 Seats
D66 2.4% 3 Seats
Wilders 2.3% 3 Seats
SGP 1.8% 2 Seats
LPF 1.7% 2 Seats
EenNL 1.3% 2 Seats
PvdD 1.2% 1 Seat

Wilders is Partij vd Vrijheid the breakaway party formed by Geert Wilders. PvdD is the Party for the Animals.

CDA-VVD has 63 Seats. Even include ChristenUnie and the small right-wing parties, which I doubt could actually get along, they still only have 75 seats out of 76 needed.

PvdA-SP-GL has 69 seats but with the exception of possibly Party of the Animals and D66 they have no other coalition partners for an all left coalition.

PvdA-VVD-D66, a restablishment of the Purple Cabinet of Wim Kok, has 60 seats.

PvdA-CDA grand coalition has 80 seats or a majority of 4. This is the only option with a majority as of the latest polls. If there is a higher vote for any of the smaller parties then this option also becomes impracticle. Thus you could have a CDA-PvdA-VVD coalition but that would probably be too right wing for the PvdA or a PvdA-SP-CDA coalition which would be too left wing for the CDA.

[freek]

Politieke Barometer Poll 11/20

You just missed today's poll

CDA 26.5% - 41 seats
PvdA 24.1% - 37 seats
SP 15.0% - 23 seats
VVD 14.8% - 23 seats
GL 4.4% - 7 seats
CU 4.0% - 6 seats
Wilders/PVV 3.1% - 4 seats
D66 2.2% - 3 seats
SGP 1.7% - 2 seats
PvdD 1.6% - 2 seats
Fortuyn 1.2% - 1 seat
EenNL 0.8% - 1 seat

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There is some speculation now about the formation of a minority CDA/VVD cabinet that will seek support by either CU/SGP/Wilders/Fortuyn/EenNL or support by the left wing.

Formation of a coalition will be difficult. There was quite some animosity between PvdA and CDA this election campaign, and although the SP is very eager to show that they are ready to take part in a coalition, it is unlikely that they will be allowed to do so.

It is expected that a new coalition will only be formed after the provincial elections in March 2007, because the newly elected provincial parliaments have to vote for a new First Chamber (Senate, has right of veto) shortly afterwards.

[Angel of Death]

Here are two other polls:

TNS NIPO's weekly poll of November 20th (in seats only):

CDA   41
PvdA   31
VVD   21
SP   32
GroenLinks   5
LVF   0
D66   1
ChristenUnie   8
SGP   3
PVV   6
Eén NL   0
PvdD   2
PvNL   0

http://www.tns-nipo.com/sub_ext.asp?c003&file=persvannipo\rtl_stemming_wk4706.htm

That's right. It shows SP to be larger than PvdA.

Peil.nl's poll of November 21st:

CDA   26.8%   42 seats
PvdA   24.2%   38 seats
VVD   14.0%   22 seats
SP   15.0%   23 seats
Fortuyn   0.5%   0 seats
GroenLinks   5.3%   8 seats
D66   1.9%   2 seats
ChristenUnie   4.3%   6 seats
SGP   1.5%   2 seats
PvdDieren   1.1%   1 seat
Een.NL   1.2%   1 seat
PvdVrijheid   3.3%   5 seats
Other   0.9%   0 seats

http://www.peil.nl/?2168

This one at least mostly agrees with that of Interview/NSS (the poll in the previous post).

Now let's hope those f**kers pay for Iraq.

[freek]

The polls opened 3 hours ago. I was one of the first in my polling station, in Amsterdam. I found it quite symbolical that I had to put my ballot in a refitted (unused) garbage container, that is used as a ballot box today. .

Amsterdam chose for this solution because they sold all their ballot boxes earlier this year when they switched to voting machines. The type of voting machines used in Amsterdam saw their official registration annulled when it was found out that they emitted quite some electric radiation.

I voted CDA, list candidate #5, fmr. Minister of Justice Donner.

[Umengus]

curious to see wich Dutch poll institute(s) is (are) completely crazy.

[Colin]

Oh so the Netherlands is Open List PR I'm guessing? Interesting. What were your reasons for voting CDA or are they your "default" party?