2006 Dutch election

[freek]

And the results for the notorious municipality of Urk:
CDA, CU and SGP combined got 93.8% of the vote (down from 95.6% last time )!
http://www.ad.nl/verkiezingen/uitslag/?id=098

Urk = OK. Very christian, a former island full of fishermen. A stereotypical inbreeding community. .

[merseysider]

Why has there been a sudden surge of support for the Socialists and exactly how left wing are they? Are they just a bunch of trots or would they actually be willing and able to serve in government?

Also, why on earth is their logo a flying tomato?!

[freek]

http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/verkiezingsuitslagen/

[freek]

Why has there been a sudden surge of support for the Socialists and exactly how left wing are they? Are they just a bunch of trots or would they actually be willing and able to serve in government?

They started as a Maoist party in the 70's, were very active in certain cities in the South during the 70's and 80's with a very strict party organisation on a populist Commnist course (they were nicknamed the Red Jehova's Witnesses), but they let go of their Communist ideas in the beginning of the 90's, and turned more Socialist, jumping in the gap left open by the demise of the Communist Party, and the more and more centrist course of the PvdA. Once in the national parliament, their leader Marijnissen (Maorijnissen ) became a charismatic leader. The last few years they more and more changed their program to a more general left wing course, trying to show their ability to govern by taking part in quite some city governments since last March (local elections).

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Their logo WAS a flying tomato, now it is just a tomato because it has become their trademark. They wanted to throw tomatoes (symbolically) to the government. Their slogan was "Vote against, Vote SP".
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[Colin]

Where is a good place to find results and seat totals? I only see vote totals.

[freek]

Where is a good place to find results and seat totals? I only see vote totals.

Seat totals are only available on a national level because they are allocated on a national level only.

Try the link I posted above, click on 1 of the 12 provinces.

Seat totals (national): http://www.nederlandkiest.nl/

[freek]

I updated my website with the results (97.1% counted):

http://www.nlverkiezingen.com/TK2006.html

[Angel of Death]

For one thing, the polls have done poorly this time:

Interview/NSS: 16 seats off
Peil.nl: 17 seats off
TNS NIPO: 20 seats off

[freek]

For one thing, the polls have done poorly this time:

Interview/NSS: 16 seats off
Peil.nl: 17 seats off
TNS NIPO: 20 seats off

There are ten parties in parliament now, and no. 11 was very close of entering parliament. Seats are allocated on a national level.

This means that if you poll 1 party 1 seat too high, you poll another one 1 seat too low. Then 16 seats off is not that bad. They underestimated Wilders/PVV quite a bit though. The support for SP and PvdA in the polls was fluctuating a lot too.

[Angel of Death]

There's no need to lecture me on the workings of the Dutch election system. My justification for classifying these polls as poor was because in the last national election Interview/NSS was only six seats off.

[freek]

My justification for classifying these polls as poor was because in the last national election Interview/NSS was only six seats off.

The race in 2003 was better predictable, CDA and PvdA were racing against each other to become the largest party. This harmed the SP then, they had 20 seats in the polls in December, it all evaporated beginning of January, and stabilised in the last week before the elections.

Now, in the last 2 weeks, PvdA leader Bos made so many mistakes and obvious U-turns, that the already traditional evaporation of the SP didn't happen, instead the opposite happened. Every day there were huge swings between SP and PvdA. I also heard from a lot of people in doubt between PvdA and SP that they didn't have an idea who to vote for. In my opinion it is not a polling error, the result really was unpredictable.

[freek]

Largest party per municipality

Municipalities who hadn't finished counting at 0100 CET are colored white.

[freek]

Top four circles: The winning parties. What party did their 2006 voters vote for in 2003?

Bottom four circles: The losing parties. What party did their 2003 voters vote for in 2006?

Black = didn't vote in 2003.

[Tender Branson]

I thought Randstad to be much redder (PvdA) *wonder* But why is Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland in the North this red ?

[freek]

I thought Randstad to be much redder (PvdA) *wonder* But why is Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland in the North this red ?

Tradition.

Whyis the North so red ?

It has always been a poor area, poorer than the rest of the country. Drenthe was almost empty 150 years ago, and was then more or less colonized by lower class "immigrants" from the rest of the country, who worked in the peat industry or on farms or started their own small farms, but the yields from the land were not impressive. Bad soil. These immigrants were not very religious, and were hardly payed. Easy victims  for a socialist party. For the South of Groningen the situation was the same.

In the rest of Groningen and in Friesland, there were large farms with rich soil. A century ago, the grain prices were very high, the Groningen farmers built houses like castles to live in, but they hardly payed their employees. They were the only employers in the region anyway, so there was no reason to. Again, good grounds to start a socialist or a communist party. In some parts of Groningen (Beerta, Finsterwolde, now merged into Reiderland) CPN (communist) scored 50% of the votes until the 80s. Until last local elections, the NCPN, a communist splinter was the largest party in Reiderland local council.

Why not in the rest of the country: In the East and the South, the area was already populated, with small farmers who were religious and therefore vote ARP or KVP or CHU. Also, the farms were small, so the income differences between employer and employees were smaller, reducing the jealousy factor. Also there was the textile industry in these areas, many people moved to the cities of the East and the South.

The Randstad is not 1 completely urban. A lot of the municipalities are completely filled by suburbs, or are rural. This means that VVD (in suburbs) and CDA (rural) will have a lot of votes. Also the traditional PvdA vote is now split up between PvdA and SP. Besides, the largest party usually has about 30% of the vote. The 3 (now 4) large parties are close to each other in a lot of municipalities, I think.

[freek]

Voting patterns by age and gender:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another good overview of the election results:

http://www.parties-and-elections.de/netherlands.html

[minionofmidas]

Rotterdam:

PvdA 29.2%, SP 17.6%, CDA 14.4%, VVD 11.9%, PvdV 8.5%, GL 5%, D66 3.4%, EenNL 3.2%, CU 2.8%, SGP 0.6%

So much for the new Fortuyn theory...

[minionofmidas]

What are the places where the SP topped the poll, and what are they like?

Limburg has a pretty mindblowing result...
CDA 28,6% 192478
PvdA 20,3% 136665
VVD 10,8% 72656
SP 20,6% 138355
Gr.Wilders/PvdVrijheid 11,5% 77537

SP ahead of PvdA, PvdV ahead of VVD.

[freek]

What are the places where the SP topped the poll, and what are they like?

Limburg has a pretty mindblowing result...
CDA 28,6% 192478
PvdA 20,3% 136665
VVD 10,8% 72656
SP 20,6% 138355
Gr.Wilders/PvdVrijheid 11,5% 77537

SP ahead of PvdA, PvdV ahead of VVD.

2 reasons:

1. Geert Wilders (PVV-leader) comes from Venlo (Limburg).
2. The SP has a stronghold in the former coal mining towns in the South of Limburg (Brunssum, Heerlen) for at least 20 years now. These are towns where they are the largest party. Heerlen has high unemployment rates.

edit, 10 hours later. I have been thinking about it, and there might be some other reasons:
3. In Limburg, people are quite conservative. Both PVV as SP are conservative parties, one left wing, the other right wing.
4. Limburg voters tend to vote for protest parties (The prewar Dutch national socialist party NSB received a lot of votes in Limburg in the 30s), as did the Fortuyn List .
5. In addition to point 1&2, Limburg voters in general vote for local candidates. Apart from Wilders, SP MP Jan de Wit (number 4 on the SP list) comes from Heerlen, and is very popular in that area. CDA lacked a popular local candidate this time. In 2002 and 2003, Camiel Eurlings took part, but he switched to the European Parliament in 2004. In his home town Valkenburg, CDA lost a third of its voters, from 47% to 30%.

[freek]

Today it was announced that after recounts and counting absentee ballots, the SP probably will go from 26 to 25 seats, PvdA from 32 to 33. Final results will be announced Monday.

[Silent Hunter]

The people have spoken. We're just not entirely sure what they've said...

How did Balkenende win most seats?

[freek]

The people have spoken. We're just not entirely sure what they've said...

How did Balkenende win most seats?

Balkenende is seen as calm and trustworthy, the economy is growing again, and CDA had a very effective campaign against the PvdA and its leader Bos. Bos was depicted as someone without a vision, and with opinions shifting on a daily basis. CDA press conferences featured a "Bos U-turn of the day". . Part of this was true though. Two weeks ago, Bos said on Tuesday that he would prefer a CDA/PvdA-coalition, on Wednesday that PvdA/VVD/GL was his favourite coalition and on Thursday that PvdA/SP/GL would be fantastic.

Also, inside the VVD there are tensions between the (social-)liberal wing (represented by VVD-leader MArk Rutte) and the conservative wing (represented by the popular minister for immigration Rita Verdonk).  Preliminary results show that something unusual has happened.

In the Netherlands, you always vote for a candidate. When voters have no preference for a certain candidate, they usually vote for the number 1 on the list, in this case Rutte.  Usually the number 1 receives more than 80% of all the votes on his list. Traditionally, this is a bit lower for the VVD, but usually still about 70%. Now, it seems that Rita Verdonk, #2 on the list, received more votes than Mark Rutte. This is unique, it has never happened before.

[Bono]

Great result for the PvdV. Awsome.

[Bono]

Would a CDA-VVD-PVV-CU-SGP coalition work?