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Author Topic: Details of Mason-Dixon West Virginia Poll  (Read 5186 times)
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BRTD
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« Reply #25 on: June 09, 2004, 12:05:21 am »
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That's way outer exurban. Inner suburbs (like Fairfax county) definately are.
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« Reply #26 on: June 09, 2004, 12:08:37 am »
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That's way outer exurban. Inner suburbs (like Fairfax county) definately are.

They're just becoming part of the City - no growth or outright population decline.  All the population growth is occurring in the exurbs.  Hence the net effect on the vote statewide is parity.
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« Reply #27 on: June 09, 2004, 12:43:27 am »
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I have a feeling that this debate won't be settled until Bush fails or succeeds to break 60% in Loudon County, VA on Nov 2 (easternmost example).
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« Reply #28 on: June 09, 2004, 06:30:46 am »
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This fast growing Loudon county is typical of the fastest growing counties in the US - strongly Republican.  So much for the theory that 'the suburbs are trending left'.
"Strongly Republican" means absolutely nothing in terms of trend.  In fact, the data show Loudon County *definitely* trending "left".  Compare the Loundon County voting to the overall state...
1980 Loudon County was +13.5% Republican (Reagan)
1984 Loudon County was +11.3% Republican (Reagan)
1988 Loudon County was +13.1% Republican (Bush)
1992 Loudon County was +7.2% Republican (Bush)
1996 Loudon County was +9.8% Republican (Dole)
2000 Loudon County was +7.2% Republican (Bush)

This may seem to bounce too much to be an obvious trend, but Loudon County was +4.2% in 1992 compared to the rest of the state for Perot.  Since more (though certainly not all) of Perot's support came from Bush, Loudon County would have otherwise been in the +8 to +12% Republican range (compared to the rest of the state) in 1992 were Perot not there.  So, 1988 is the only bump, and it's a pretty small one at that.  Otherwise, there has been a steady decline in the Republican advantage in Loudon County.

So, over 20 years there's been a greater than 6% Democrat swing in Loudon County.  Growth there (influx of more centrist, if not left of center voters) has not been linear; it has been increasing.  It is no coincidence that 5% of that 6% Democrat swing has been in the past 10 years.  I'm pretty confident in saying that Loudon County will be +5% Republican compared to the rest of the state in the 2004 election.  I expect Bush to win VA by about 5% (maybe a bit more), so Bush should take Loudon County by 10%... 55% to 45% (with some exception for a few percentage to Nader and others).
« Last Edit: June 09, 2004, 06:33:57 am by millwx »Logged

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« Reply #29 on: June 09, 2004, 11:48:42 pm »
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This fast growing Loudon county is typical of the fastest growing counties in the US - strongly Republican.  So much for the theory that 'the suburbs are trending left'.

The fastest growing counties are currently strongly republican because there are very few people before the growth.  This means that the area is sparsly populated ergo strong GOP.  However, as it grows it moves to the left.
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« Reply #30 on: June 10, 2004, 02:33:11 am »
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This fast growing Loudon county is typical of the fastest growing counties in the US - strongly Republican.  So much for the theory that 'the suburbs are trending left'.

The fastest growing counties are currently strongly republican because there are very few people before the growth.  This means that the area is sparsly populated ergo strong GOP.  However, as it grows it moves to the left.

Yes but getting 60% of the vote in a heavily populated county can be better than getting 70% in a sparsely populated rural one, in terms of net contribution to the statewide vote.  
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« Reply #31 on: June 10, 2004, 06:01:10 am »
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So, 1988 is the only bump, and it's a pretty small one at that.  
And one that occurred pretty much all over Suburbia. Dukakis did very bad there - on the other hand, he did quite well in some rural areas, better than Clinton and Gore.
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« Reply #32 on: June 10, 2004, 06:02:14 am »
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This fast growing Loudon county is typical of the fastest growing counties in the US - strongly Republican.  So much for the theory that 'the suburbs are trending left'.

The fastest growing counties are currently strongly republican because there are very few people before the growth.  This means that the area is sparsly populated ergo strong GOP.  However, as it grows it moves to the left.

Yes but getting 60% of the vote in a heavily populated county can be better than getting 70% in a sparsely populated rural one, in terms of net contribution to the statewide vote.  
That's true too, o/c.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #33 on: June 10, 2004, 06:27:44 am »
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Is there a list of the fastest growing counties in the US somewhere? like a top 50 or 100?

I wonder if my county is on the list...its big as it is...and has huge growth rates...wonder how it compares
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« Reply #34 on: June 10, 2004, 06:29:31 am »
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http://www.usatoday.com/graphics/census2000/usnav/usnav.htm

Interesting site...

Eastern Pa is going to dominate PA politics for a long time.

though the state is now starting to grow again...3.4% during the 90s...up from 0.2% in the 80s.
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A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
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