Teddy Roosevelt v Woodrow Wilson 1912

[Lincoln Republican]

What If

In 1912, former President Theodore Roosevelt is successful in securing the Republican nomination against President William Howard Taft.

The Democrats nominate Woodrow Wilson.

It is a straight two way race, Roosevelt v Wilson.

Who wins?

[True Democrat]

Roosevelt

The Republicans owned the early 1900s.

[Boris]

Roosevelt wins, and probably easily with the Republican vote presumably united.

[jokerman]

Roosevelt wins  (This is assuming it's Roosevelt vs. Wilson, as the thread says, with no Debs)

[Lincoln Republican]

Roosevelt wins  (This is assuming it's Roosevelt vs. Wilson, as the thread says, with no Debs)

Preston, what happens in a Theodore Roosevelt, Republican, Woodrow Wilson, Democrat, and Eugene Debs, Socialist, contest in 1912?

[jokerman]

Roosevelt wins  (This is assuming it's Roosevelt vs. Wilson, as the thread says, with no Debs)

Preston, what happens in a Theodore Roosevelt, Republican, Woodrow Wilson, Democrat, and Eugene Debs, Socialist, contest in 1912?

Well, I would think at the least it would throw those three western states I gave to Wilson to Roosevelt.  I don't know enough about the breakdown of Debs votes to forcast anything else, though.

[bullmoose88]

Roosevelt wins  (This is assuming it's Roosevelt vs. Wilson, as the thread says, with no Debs)

Preston...

TR Loses Indiana and Ohio? California (a state he won in 1912?)

No Way.

Wilson's lucky to win the CSA 11, and the 4 border states...

And I'm being generous with New Jersey.

[jokerman]

Wilson earned over 40% in his own right in the three states that you mentioned, and TR doesn't get the same amount of support from progressives and moderates under the Republican banner that he does under the Progressive banner.  Some of those voters stay home or even vote for Wilson.

[NewFederalist]

Even with Debs in the race he receives no EVs.

[WalterMitty]

TR would have won i a landslide.

how come TR didnt run in 1916?

[Colin]

If you add together Roosevelt's and Taft's numbers together, since almost all the loyal Republican Taft voters would have voted for a Republican Roosevelt, this is the result:

Roosevelt: 50.57% 379 EVs
Wilson: 41.84% 152 EVs
Debs: 5.99% 0 EVs

Unlike Preston I think that if Debs wasn't in the campaign most Socialist voters would stay home or vote for the progressive Roosevelt instead of the "Southern Conservative" Wilson. But I think that even if the Republicans picked Teddy in 1912 Debs would have run and got about the same amount of votes.

Wilson only wins the Solid South and he's within about .03 points of losing Kentucky to Roosevelt and 1.49 points away from losing Arizona. Wilson, in this scenario, only does marginally better than Alton Parker did against Roosevelt 8 years before.

[Lincoln Republican]

TR would have won i a landslide.

how come TR didnt run in 1916?

Walter, my understanding is in 1916 TR was hoping the Republican Party would come to him with the nomination.  TR was disappointed when the party chose Supreme Court Judge Charles Evans Hughes.  Nevertheless, TR did campaign for Hughes in the 1916 election, possibly with his eye already on the 1920 nomination.   

[gorkay]

TR would have won easily... which is why the Republicans were idiots for nominating Taft. One wonders who the conservatives would have voted for in 1912 with this lineup. It might surprise some, but I think a lot of them might go to Wilson, since he was actually to the right of Roosevelt at that time. So you can't say that Roosevelt would have gotten all the votes he did in RL plus all the votes Taft did. Also, some of the more independent-minded Bull Mooses might have paled at going Republican, even with TR heading the ticket. But still, an easy Roosevelt victory. (He probably would have picked a more conservative running mate than Hiram Johnson to appease the right wing of the GOP, though.)

TR didn't run in 1916 because he had his sights set on 1920. In 1916, his hawkishness on the war didn't match public opinion (one of the few times he didn't have his finger to the wind politically), and his popularity had suffered. He was betting that the war would be over and wouldn't be an issue by 1920, and that he wouldn't then have to run against an incumbent Democrat. So he endorsed Hughes, whom he disliked, to display his party loyalty, probably secretly hoping the whole time that he would lose the election.