Labour Leadership/Deputy Leadership Election thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It begins; John McDonnell (the hard-Left M.P for Hayes & Harlington; that's the area around Heathrow Airport for those that don't know London) has pretty much declared that he'll run for the Leadership whent he post opens up. An official annoucement is likely on Friday, although his intentions were pretty clear at the Durham Miners Gala a few days ago.

I'll write up some short profiles of possible candidates shortly.

[Harry Hayfield]

Allow me to help you then:

Hayes and Harlington 1992 - 2005

GE 1992 (Notional): Con 45% Lab 45% Lib Dem 10%
GE 1997: Lab 62% (+17%) Con 27% (-18%) Lib Dem 7% (-3%) Others 3%
GE 2001: Lab 66% (+4%) Con 24% (-3%) Lib Dem 6% (-1%) Others 4% (+1%)
GE 2005: Lab 59% (-7%) Con 25% (+1%) Lib Dem 10% (+4%) Others 6% (+2%)

Swing from 1992 - 2005: Con -20% Lab +14% = Con to Lab of 17%

[Serenity Now]

Other MPs who've said they would stand against Gordon Brown in order for a "fair transition of power" include Lynne Jones (B'ham Selly Oak) and of course Michael Meacher (Oldham West and Royton). I wonder if there are more lefties to come..

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Other MPs who've said they would stand against Gordon Brown in order for a "fair transition of power" include Lynne Jones (B'ham Selly Oak) and of course Michael Meacher (Oldham West and Royton). I wonder if there are more lefties to come..

Let's see then...

Potential leadership candidates

Gordon Brown, John McDonnell, Lynne Jones, Michael Meacher, Alan Simpson, Alan Milburn, John Reid... and potentially just about anyone on the next list...

Potential deputy leadership candidates

Alan Johnson, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, David Miliband, Tessa Jowell (lol), Peter Hain... and maybe even Blunkett or Clarke, trying to pull a Lazarus? Most on the the list above are possible as well.

Did I miss anyone?

[Democratic Hawk]

I sure as hell won't be voting for any "lefty" for either leader or deputy

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Did I miss something? Is Tony Blair resigning?

[Harry Hayfield]

Mr. McDonnell's statement:

"It is becoming increasingly apparent that Tony Blair will announce his resignation as Leader of the Labour Party over the next 12 -18 months.

Some have argued that instead of an open democratic election for the leader of the party, there should be a smooth transition or virtual coronation of his successor.

This would deny party members the opportunity of openly debating the issues facing our party and the future direction of the country.

An election for the Leader of the party will allow for a democratic debate on the future of Labour.

Therefore following increasing demands from various sections of the movement, I have decided to declare myself as a candidate for the leadership of the Labour Party as soon as the present incumbent retires.

To be clear this is not a so-called "stalking horse" candidature but a serious challenge for the leadership of the party when a vacancy occurs.

I am standing to ensure that thousands of Labour Party members and supporters have the chance to participate in deciding not only who should be the next leader of our party but more importantly what policies the party should be pursuing.

There are many that feel the party has lost its way. Many of the policies being pursued in Government have broken up the broad coalition of support Labour has relied upon throughout its history to bring it to power.

New Labour has systematically alienated section after section of our supporters - teachers, health workers, students, pensioners, public service workers, trade unionists and people committed to the environment, civil liberties and peace. Spin and allegations of sleaze are causing decent people to lose trust in our party.

This is reflected in lost votes, lost elections, lost members and a Labour Prime Minister having to rely upon Conservative votes in Parliament to force through legislation.

There are growing calls from across the party for change. We need to rebuild a progressive consensus, inspiring and giving people hope that another world is possible. We need those who have turned away from Labour to come back home.

For the first time in decades people no longer feel they have a political voice. This campaign is a challenge to the present political consensus.

I will now seek support from all sections of the movement. At next Saturday's conference of the Labour Representation Committee we will debate the policies needed by a real Labour government and the way in which we can reinvigorate democratic participation in the party.

From September this campaign will be travelling the country, convening meetings face to face with party members, supporters and the general public to discuss the issues facing us. We will be urging those thousands of Labour Party members who have left the party to rejoin and those who are no longer active supporters to re-engage.

We are launching a campaign web-site today and we will use every possible means of communication and new technology to stimulate this debate and get our message across.

The campaign will be waged in an open, comradely and friendly manner based upon a debate on the policies not personalities.

Let the debate begin"

[afleitch]

Other MPs who've said they would stand against Gordon Brown in order for a "fair transition of power"

Which roughly translates to  'we don't want the public to realise how, in comparison to even the Tories our leadership election appears a little dated and involves those 'troublesome' trade unions which don't play well with the swing voters.' Thats probably part of the reason as to why Prescott has not been dumped.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did I miss something? Is Tony Blair resigning?

No; but it's likely to happen at some point within the next year now. Some people think it could happen as early as Conference.

I started this thread now, because we have our first declared candidate.

[AuH2O]

Don't worry laborites. PM Cameron won't be that different from Blair.

[Democratic Hawk]

Don't worry laborites. PM Cameron won't be that different from Blair.

Well on that I'm far from convinced. I'm hoping the middle ground in British politics don't buy it. No way should Cameron be getting a pass after the political equivalent of five minutes

Dave

[Michael Z]

Hattersley calls on Blair to quit

My prediction of Blair resigning in September looks increasingly likely.

[© tweed]

Hattersley calls on Blair to quit

My prediction of Blair resigning in September looks increasingly likely.

If you really believe that's going to happen, you can make alot of money on TradeSports.  You'd basically get a 9/1 payoff if he resigns by Sept 30 of 2006.

[Michael Z]

Hattersley calls on Blair to quit

My prediction of Blair resigning in September looks increasingly likely.

If you really believe that's going to happen, you can make alot of money on TradeSports.  You'd basically get a 9/1 payoff if he resigns by Sept 30 of 2006.

Perhaps I should do that. I still regret not having put any money on Greece winning Euro 2004.

[Ben.]

Hattersley calls on Blair to quit

My prediction of Blair resigning in September looks increasingly likely.

Hattersley been saying that for ages... he's pretty much a broken record these days, his unfaltering faith that Gordon Brown will be the Labour Party's saviour is pretty amusing as well

...as things stand i can think of very few potential leaders that could improve the Labour Party's postion that much, it isnt that Labour are in a dire electoral position just a poor one with no real indication of how they get out of it (the usual trick of pionting out that the LibDem and Tories are even more hapless than them seemingly not working anymore after a decede of being employed to good effect LOL!).

No Hard Lefty will win the leadership race, and McDonnell is about are Hard Left as they come, the likes of Simpson and Jones would have been more viable candidates for the Hard Left but neither would have won... the same goes for a Blairite "true beliver"... so IMHO the battle will be within the centre of the party between Brown and candidates such as Johnson (Benn seemingly not interested).

If it does come down to a contest between Brown and Johnson (perhpas with Reid throwing his hat in) then it could be very competative... but as things stand i think Brown is going to only face nominal opposition, should Johnson run though I would not be surprised to see him win, as i really do not rate Brown's ability to A.Run an effective leadership campaign or B.Be able to garner much support beyond that which might eminate from an aura of inevitability (much like David Davis).   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't worry laborites. PM Cameron won't be that different from Blair.

1. It's "Labourites" not "laborites".

2. "P.M Cameron" is far from certain (more likely than P.M Howard and a hell of a lot more likely than P.M Hague or (sns) P.M IDS o/c, but that's not saying much), and anyone who assumes that it is certain, clearly doesn't have a clue what they're talking about...

3. And the same goes to the amusing idea that the policies of a future Tory-led Government would be anything like those of the post-1997 Labour Government.

4. EDIT: and I'm just slipping something in here, for future use:

[afleitch]

And the same goes to the amusing idea that the policies of a future Tory-led Government would be anything like those of the post-1997 Labour Government.

I don't think that it is an amusing idea at all. A nfuture Tory government will not be like Labour in every or even the majority of aspects policy wise, but it cannot be suggested that what Labour has done, for good and for bad will be ignored or rolled back by the Tories. Labour, when it came to 1997 is well known for not rolling back certain Majorite or Thatcherite policies (particularly when it came to the economy). Likewise I expect PM Cameron to maintain a degree of Labour policy or the structure that it has implemented, while implementing its own policy and applying a new interpretation of existing policy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

it isnt that Labour are in a dire electoral position just a poor one with no real indication of how they get out of it

The Labour Party is not actually in a poor electoral position; the P.M is certainly in a less-than-great political position, but those two things have very little to do with each other now.

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True. Didn't even happen in the '80's.

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I've always thought that that title (within the PLP) was the personal property of Harry Cohen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think that it is an amusing idea at all. A nfuture Tory government will not be like Labour in every or even the majority of aspects policy wise, but it cannot be suggested that what Labour has done, for good and for bad will be ignored or rolled back by the Tories.

The idea that a future Tory government would do that is also out of the question. A sharp change in policy (and such changes are never really given much media attention; the media is only ever interested in rhetoric and soundbites) would be almost certain. And that is what has traditionally happend with new governments anyway.

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True (although it was impossible to roll much of that back anyway; there was a lot of rolling-back in the parts of Government that I'm interested in, btw) but the difference in policy between the post-1997 Labour Government and the 1979-1997 Tory Governments are huge (if frequently low-key).

[minionofmidas]

Hey Afleitch, who authored that nice quote in your sig?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Really? he doesn't rebel nearly as much as say McDonnell or Corbyn, then again he did accept a description of himself as a "class warrior" I think.

Well no, he doesn't rebel a great deal. He's a Marxist though.

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Not really sure... he's certainly ethnically Jewish (if that's the right way to put it).

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Oh, he's definately that.

[Rural Radical]

Why do our Tory friends assume that they will gain seats next time?

IMO Labour could gain seats against the trend when the anti war vote comes back. Seats like Shrewsbury & Atcham (10% swing to Lib Dem), also I think Withington, Chesterfield, Rochdale and Yardley could come back as well.

[afleitch]

Why do our Tory friends assume that they will gain seats next time?

IMO Labour could gain seats against the trend when the anti war vote comes back. Seats like Shrewsbury & Atcham (10% swing to Lib Dem), also I think Withington, Chesterfield, Rochdale and Yardley could come back as well.

While I have no doubt that Labour will regain seats they lost to the Lib Dems and may see a swing towards them in seats like Crawley for example, I believe any Labour gains will be offset by sustained losses to the Conservatives. There may be the odd upset, similar to the Tories gaining Aberdeen South in 1992 for example, but even the slightest move to the Tories would see Labour seats fall.

[Rural Radical]

Why do our Tory friends assume that they will gain seats next time?

IMO Labour could gain seats against the trend when the anti war vote comes back. Seats like Shrewsbury & Atcham (10% swing to Lib Dem), also I think Withington, Chesterfield, Rochdale and Yardley could come back as well.

While I have no doubt that Labour will regain seats they lost to the Lib Dems and may see a swing towards them in seats like Crawley for example, I believe any Labour gains will be offset by sustained losses to the Conservatives. There may be the odd upset, similar to the Tories gaining Aberdeen South in 1992 for example, but even the slightest move to the Tories would see Labour seats fall.

Good Point.

Regarding the old "Severn to The Wash" Line (outside of London).

I cant see us (Lab) losing the following seats in the foreeable future :

 Both Plymouth Seats
Exeter
Bristol South & East
Kingswood
Both Southampton Seats
Oxford East
Brighton Pavillion
Dover
Reading West
Slough
Stevenage
Watford
Thurrock
Basildon
Swindon North
Ipswich
Both Norwich Seats
Both Luton Seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The slightest move in any direction always sees seats falling. Personally I suspect we'll see strong swings, maybe very strong ones, to the Tories in some sorts of constituency, and swings back to Labour in other sorts. And I'm increasingly sure that we'll see the far-right (and by that I don't mean just the BNP) poll strongly in areas that feel abandoned by the new direction (whatever it is) that the Tories are moving in.