French Legislative Elections; First Round Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

PACA
Alpes de Haute Provence 1 UMP gain from PS
Alpes de Haute Provence 2 UMP hold#
Hautes Alpes 1 UMP hold*
Would take an endorsement by the strong MoDem candidate for the Socialist to come into play
Hautes Alpes 2 PRG hold*
Alpes Maritimes 1 UMP hold#
For the party that is... the incumbent, now iUMP, came an extremely dismal third
Alpes Maritimes 8 UMP hold* against iUMP
Bouches du Rhône 1, 3, 5, 10, 11, 14 UMP hold#
Bouches du Rhône 4 PS gain from PCF# (runoff against UMP)
Bouches du Rhône 7 PS hold#
Bouches du Rhône 8 UMP gain from PS*
Bouches du Rhône 13 PCF hold#
Bouches du Rhône 15 iUMP gain from UMP (runoff against incumbent, but rebel's ahead already. Seems to be regionally polarized)
Bouches du Rhône 16 UMP hold
Var 4 UMP hold#
I find it ironic that the only UMP candidate to have to bother with a runoff is the mayor of Saint Tropez, but of course that's because of an UMP rebel who almost made it past the socialist
Vaucluse 1-4 UMP hold#

Rhône-Alpes
Ain 1, 3 UMP hold#
Ardèche 1 PS hold#
Ardèche 2, 3 UMP hold#
Drôme 1, 3, 4 UMP hold#
Drôme 2 UMP gain from PS#
Yes, #. MoDem candidate has already endorsed the UMP guy here. This was the seat of Eric Besson, that PS guy who joined the cabinet, btw. He didn't contest.
Isère 1 PS gain from UMP
incumbent ran as indy and came third
Isère 2 PS gain from PCF# (runoff against UMP)
Isère 3 PS hold*
Isère 4, 9 PS hold#
Isère 5 PS hold
Isère 6, 8 UMP hold#
Loire 1 UMP gain from MoDem*
runoff against PS. Would require a MoDem endorsement to come into play
Loire 2, 4 UMP hold*
Loire 3 PSLE hold#
Loire 5, 6 UMP hold#
Rhône 1 UMP gain from MoDem* (see Loire 1)
Rhône 2-4, 10-12 UMP hold#
Rhône 6, 7 UMP gain from PS
Rhône 13 UMP gain from PS#
Yes, #. David only won because FN made the runoff last time
Rhône 14 PCF hold#
Savoie 3 UMP hold#
Haute Savoie 2 iUMP gain from PSLE*
Funny thing is that incumbent Bosson is much closer to the President than his challenger Tardy, who has the support of most local UMP grandees while Bosson has the official endorsement
Haute Savoie 5 UMP hold#

Outre-Mer
Guadeloupe 1, 4 PS hold#
Guadeloupe 2 UMP hold
Guadeloupe 3 DVG gain from UMP*
Guyane 1 PRG hold#
Guyane 2 UMP hold#
Martinique 1 PSapp hold#
Martinique 2 UMP hold*
Martinique 3 PPM gain from DVG#
Martinique 4 MIM hold#
Latter two had over 50% of vote but fell foul of turnout
Réunion 1 PS gain from UMP
Réunion 2 PCR hold#
Réunion 3 UMP hold#
Réunion 4 PS gain from PSapp (if PCR desists: PS gain#)
Réunion 5 PS gain from UMP#
Audifax looks utterly toast.
St Pierre et Miquelon PRG gain from UMP*
Mayotte MDM gain from UMP*
And the question of why Bayrou did well here has finally been solved to me... MDM, which fights for full DOM status for Mayotte, is allied to MoDem
Wallis et Futuna UMP hold*
Polynésie 1 UMP hold*
Polynésie 2 UMP hold
Nouvelle-Calédonie 1 UMP hold*
Nouvelle-Calédonie 2 UMP hold#
All four runoffs against pro-Independence candidates

[minionofmidas]

Funny thing is that this man claims to be an anti-alcoholic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As I sort-of forgot to continue with this, any geographical order that there might have been hath gone...

Paris

Paris 1: should be a Green hold, though there's a chance of a UMP gain.
Paris 2: UMP hold
Paris 3: UMP won on first round
Paris 4: UMP won on first round
Paris 5: looks like an easy Socialist hold
Paris 6: ditto
Paris 7: ditto
Paris 8: a decent chance of a Socialist gain, but will be close either way.
Paris 9: there was actually a swing to the PS here. Socialist hold.
Paris 10: should be a Socialist hold, but an upset is possible.
Paris 11: Green hold
Paris 12: safe UMP
Paris 13: safe UMP (incumbent ran as Indy in first round and lost badly)
Paris 14: UMP won on first round
Paris 15: UMP won on first round
Paris 16: UMP won on first round
Paris 17: will be close, perhaps extremely close, either way...
Paris 18: Socialist hold
Paris 19: ditto
Paris 20: ditto
Paris 21: Socialist "hold". Incumbent ran as Indy in first round, did not do so very well...

Hautes-de-Seine

Colombes Nord: safe PCF
Colombes Sud: UMP nearly won in first round...
Courbevoie: UMP won on first round
Nanterre: will be close, but the PCF incumbent has, I think, a slight edge.
Lavallois-Perret: safe UMP
Neuilly-sur-Seine: UMP won on first round (this was Sarkozy's old seat, btw)
Garches, Rueil-Malmaison: UMP won on first round
Meudon: UMP won on first round
Boulogne-Billancourt: UMP won on first round
Issy-les-Moulineaux: safe UMP (or Ind Right or whatever)
Bagneux: PCF hold
Chatillon: UMP hold
Antony, Sceaux: safe UMP

Seine-St-Denis

Epinay-sur-Seine: a strong swing to the PS here. Safe Socialist.
Saint-Denis Nord: safe PCF
Aubervilliers: safe PS (was PCF open seat, PCF failed (just) to make runoff).
Le-Blanc-Mesnil: Buffet actually did better than in 2002. PCF hold.
Bobigny: probably MD (this guy is MD, right?) hold, but maybe half a chance of an upset.
Pantin: Socialist hold
Montreuil: by the looks of it, Brard is unopposed in the second round.
Rosny-sous-Bois: odd first round result, but looks like a UMP hold in the second.
Bondy: Socialist hold
Aulnay-sous-Bois: should be a UMP hold
Sevran: PCF hold
La Raincy: UMP nearly won on first round
Noisy-le-Grand: probably a PS hold

Val-de-Marne

Creteil Nord: safe UMP
Creteil Ouest, Sud: PS hold
Villeneuve-Saint-Georges: should be a PRG hold
Villiers-sur-Marne: UMP hold
Champigny-sur-Marne Centre, Est: ditto
Fontenay-sous-Bois, Vincennes: ditto
Champigny-sur-Marne Ouest: UMP nearly won on first round
Maisons-Alfort: UMP won on first round
Vitry-sur-Seine Est, Ouest: result in first round very like 2002. Will be true of second round also;
Vitry-sur-Seine Nord: PCF hold
Villejuif: PS hold (this was once the seat of Georges Marchais, btw)
L'Hay-les-Roses: UMP hold

[minionofmidas]

Just checked the Outre-Mer and Corse... I certainly didn't see Wallis & Futuna coming, and I didn't see Outer Guyane coming either. Everything else is correct (PRG instead of PS for St Pierre et Miquelon is a misprint).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Paris

Paris 1: should be a Green hold, though there's a chance of a UMP gain.[/quote]

Correct, but the Greenie did better than I'd expected.

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Correct, but this was quite a bit closer than I thought it'd be.

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All o.k.

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I certainly didn't expect the Socialist to win by 10pts...

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Mostly alright I think

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Wrong; was a pretty comfortable Socialist hold

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All alright

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All fine

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Turned out to be more than just a slight edge

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Seems o.k.

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Bruno Le Roux (isn't that a wonderful name?) took 62%... in a seat that was very, very close in 2002.

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All seem o.k. Just noticed the surname of the new PS deputy for Aubervilliers; Goldberg.

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Yeeeeeeeesssssss... but very nearly wasn't.

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Yep. Fine.

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Fine

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Nope; UMP gain.

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I think that be all o.k.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can't see [m]any howlers in Alsace, so skip to Lorraine...

Lorraine...

Meurthe-et-Moselle

Nancy Est etc: result much the same as last time, though with the usual slightly higher UMP. Another unspectacular UMP hold here methinks.

Was a UMP hold, but was extremely close.

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A PS gain. I'm pleased with that one.

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Nearly an upset here/

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All alright I think.

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An easy Socialist gain in the end. Pleased with this guess as well.

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Yep, fine. Bar-le-Duc a bit closer than expected though.

Moselle

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All o.k, methinks.

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Yep. Was a Socialist hold.

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Both O.K, but Thionville, while an easy UMP hold, was a bit tighter than I'd thought likely.

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Yeah, looks right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now Franche-Comte (there's going to be no real logical order here, btw)...

Belfort

Belfort Centre: nearly went UMP on first round. Guess.
Belfort Ouest: doesn't look good for Chevenement, though if all the left vote from the first round votes for him in the second it could be close. But he's an abrasive sod so...

The abrasive sod lost, o/c, and pretty badly.

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Strange. They nearly lost this one.

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I think these are both right

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Was a surprise Socialist gain

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Lure was indeed a PS upset-gain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rhone-Alpes...

Ain

Bourg-en-Bress: UMP nearly won on first round...
Oyonnax: UMP won on first round
Ferney-Voltaire: UMP was 0.01% of winning in first round...
Trevoux: UMP won on first round

Yeah...

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There's easy, and then there's winning 62/38...

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And this was actually a Socialist gain. What on earth happend here?

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Yep

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Yeah...

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Yawn...

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It seems that a lot of Cazenave's supporters did turn out in the second round... but voted for the Socialist!

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Yep. All three Grenoble seats (plus Vif) had Socialists taking over 60%, btw.

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Yep

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A Socialist gain; close o/c, but not extremely so.

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Socialist won by about 6pts in the end...

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Roanne was close to being another upset

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Yep

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Turned out to be slightly more than half a chance...

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Wrong, wrong, wrong; a Socialist gain!

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Yeah, all looks o.k. In general the Left did better in Lyon than I'd expected (though not as well as in Saint-Etienne).

[minionofmidas]

Alsace
Bas-Rhin 1 PS hold
Bas Rhin 2 UMP hold*
Bas-Rhin 3 UMP hold#
Haut-Rhin 1 iUMP gain from UMP
Haut-Rhin 3 UMP hold#

Just fine. Extra kudos for noticing that Bas-Rhin 2 might be close. Kudos withdrawn again for entertaining doubts about Armand Jung's chances. A major at the size of Straumann's win - seems he got the entire left to come out and vote for him. Meyer's raw vote total actually declined slightly between the two rounds.

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Yeah, spotted that one. Not that hard.

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Woah, woah, woah.Affluent, rural/part suburban Gironde 5 - the Médoc - ousted its incumbent after giving (just) over 50% of the first round votes to candidates to the right of MoDem. (I do recall spending some time thinking whether this one should have a * or a #. but still...) And in Gironde 10, the UMP got 45% in round one and 51.5% in round two, although they did hold it.

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Well, I said it could happen. I said I would be surprised if it really happened. It happened. (shrugs) Tiberi next time.
Gironde 3 Green hold#
Gironde 4, 7 PS hold#
Gironde 6, 11 PS hold
Gironde 9 PS gain from UMP* [/quote]Caught that one. Not that the Socialists in 6 and 11 had any problems, mind...

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Nope.

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PS did not withdraw, and in fact UMP (which had narrowly topped the poll in the first round but had no vote reserves to draw on) withdrew its candidate in Bayrou's circumscription out of the silly hope of getting MoDem to withdraw here. Ended up the only threeway in the wole election cycle. MoDem win is correctly predicted, though.

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5 was actually close.

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Well, they did get pretty close to holding, anyways.

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Silly Le Monde actually thought Michel was in trouble here... Well he was held to under 55% - more than the département's sole conservative, but a hell of a lot less than the other four lefties, all of whom crossed 60%.

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Hah, no way.

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I guess that meant 6. Which was a very close hold for PS. But the true story is of course the left gain in 5 (another seat with over 50% of round one votes to MoDem's right) and the near-gain in 2 (which, looking back, should never have gotten a # actually. Nesme had a ten-point lead and 43%, but not many reserves.)

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Correct.

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Lost Quimper, of course, but did squeeze by around Chateaulin.

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No endorsement needed. Was close though.

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Not sure why I gave this one a *. Rogemont represented the seat until 2002, but was not the official PS candidate in round one, btw.

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No.

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You read it here first.

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Correct, almost an upset in 4 though.

[minionofmidas]

Centre
Cher 1,3 UMP hold#
Cher 2 PCF hold*
Eure et Loir 1, 2 UMP hold#
Eure et Loir 3 UMP gain from PRG*

Correct through here, but at some of the #s. (Cher 3, 50.96%. Eure et Loir 1, 50.06%, or 59 votes.)

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Well one out of three ain't bad. And recalling what the categories mean, I technically did note that a 2 PS - 1 UMP split was possible.

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Both gone.

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Correct.

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Ardennes 2 was held, with just 51.5% of the vote though. That was the only race worth watching here, really.

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Yeah. Point is that while a leftish indy like Renucci gets nat support as a matter of course, the PRG does not. For obvious reasons.

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The error in Doubs 4 was assuming that the UMP can count on FN votes.

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Dalloz won big.

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I think Al saw this one. Mind you, I didn't rule it out either. Unlike two or three other PS gains so far...

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Yeah.

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Well there's safe, and then there's 69% as in the 6e. Only in 20e did the Socialist fail to crack 60.

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All quite unproblematic, and 21e least of all (another over 60 seat). Which is kind of surprising as George Pau-Langevin, born on Guadeloupe, just became the first Black woman to represent Metropolitan France. Only "candidat de diversité" to win, out of 17 Socialists and 6 UMPers. Funny how different countries define their minorities. In France, Arabic Jews or Christians are White (and have long been represented in Parliament, btw) while Arabic Muslims are non-White.

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Yep, old man Julia pulled through.

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Essonne 5 was a close battle, but winners are predicted correctly throughout.

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As it turned out, the Socialist withdrew and Brard was declared elected unopposed.

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Both indies withdrew, but 10 ended up the close race.

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Schwartzenberg lost by 148 votes. I did call it possible, but given the overall bent of the election, this is something of a whammy.

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Caught that last one. By 290 votes.

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Socialists needen't have worried. Being semi-endorsed by the département's FN organization (who called for "voting invalid or for the left") must have helped, though.

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Dumas pulled through.
Hérault 1, 3, 6 UMP hold#

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Something's wrong with the billing here... don't know what it is... Hérault 2 was a PS gain, and Hérault 7 was a UMP gain (from PCF). Let's just say I caught the winners.

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No, UMP won (barely). Turnout was up, too, so that's not it.

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2 fell, 3 will almost certainly fall next time around. The Chiraquerie is coming to an end, and Corrèze is regaining its true colours.

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No UMP hold in Limoges-Centre. Not even all that close.

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No. 2 went.

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Of course.

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Correct.

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Another hold.

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Easy.

[minionofmidas]

Midi-Pyrennées
Ariège 1, 2 PS hold#
Aveyron 1, 2 UMP hold*

2 went, 50.6-49.4.

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PS did gain 1, they held 2, they held 6 and they gained 4. None was even close. Any questions?

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No, Condom voted for the left. Not by much though.

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Seems he's PRG, actually.

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This one went.

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3 went.

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Eh. Swap those two around. 8 wasn't even close, though 7 very much so.

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Which withdrew. Lame.

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Didn't happen.

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Didn't happen either.
[quote]Pas de Calais 14 PS hold# in runoff against FN

[minionofmidas]

Right, need to complete this.

Basse-Normandie
Calvados 1 PS gain from UMP
Calvados 2 PS gain from PSLE*

Yes. Both seats in Caen! Celebration! (I've been to Caen and have liked the town you see... )
Calvados 3 PSLE hold# (if the iUMP withdraws, as is likely. Otherwise PS gain from PSLE*)
Calvados 5, 6 UMP hold#
Manche 1, 3, 4 UMP hold#
Manche 2 DVD gain from UMP
unless Huet is more conservative than Bas... see Haut-Rhin 1
Manche 5 PS gain from UMP
Orne 1 UMP hold#[/quote]I got the entire region right!

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I'd better have predicted it... cause it sure as hell happened.

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So bottomline... that Normandie was going badly for the UMP was obvious (for those with eyes to see, which excludes much of France's vague bleue journos, still too accustomed to thinking of MoDem as part of the right) after round one, but I missed the icing on the cake.

[minionofmidas]

Pays de la Loire
Loire Atlantique 1, 5 UMP hold*

Both gone, 1 to the Greens.

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Correct.

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Nope, both gone.

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He did withdraw in the end, with the resulting easy PSLE hold.

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Nope. Desallangre was reelected with almost 55% of the vote.

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Nope. A little closer than Desallangre though.

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Not in danger at all. 59%.

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Ouch. Right-wing vote without MoDem was 54.12% in round one, 48.38% in round two. Seems like it was a mistake to count CPNT (took 8% here) among the right... Still, must count as one of the most amazing PS gains. 3 was also extremely tight.

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Sheesh, another wrong #. Although this one should never have gotten a #  I suppose, with a left-right breakdown of 43-47 and MoDem in between. It also voted for Royal in the runoff.

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No.

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Both gone. 2 wasn't even close.

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Predictions took a drastic turn to the worse there...

[minionofmidas]

PACA
Alpes de Haute Provence 1 UMP gain from PS

Held.

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Nope, Arles retains its Socialist député.

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2 went. This is a 55% Sarkozy, 54 to 37% right on the first round. Yeah, MoDem did endorse the Socialist for the runoff, and there had been a dissident UMP candidate too, but still... in the city of Annonay, of which he is the mayor, the incumbent got just 35% in the runoff.

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Well there's gaining a seat, and there's doing so with 63% of the vote. Wtf happened here in 2002?

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He got that endorsement, and took the seat. Guy by the beautiful name of Régis Juanico.

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2 went as well.

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Hah. The PS held 6 & 7, and gained 2 & 3 to boot. 4 instead of 0.

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There was a major swing visible in the first round results, but I never thought it might be enough.

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This one is... gee. First round was UMP 34%, PS 31%, DVD 14.1%, MoDem 12.5%, PSLE 8.5%. Two of the three defeated guys had endorsed UMP for the runoff even before the election was held. So how come the Socialist won, with 52% on a slightly increased turnout?

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