Labour Leadership/Deputy Leadership Election thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any predictions on the Dep. Leadership contest?

Benn is the favourite due to his grassroots support.

[Јas]

Any predictions on the Dep. Leadership contest?

Benn is the favourite due to his grassroots support.

What chance of Cruddas?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any predictions on the Dep. Leadership contest?

Benn is the favourite due to his grassroots support.

What chance of Cruddas?

That depends whether or not Unite (the post-merger Amicus, and T&G) members follow their union's endorsement. If they do, it'd be silly to rule him out (Unite members have a huge share of the electoral college) if they don't he won't have a hope in hell of winning. Basically.

[afleitch]

I get the impression some hacks in the newspapers want us to get excited about the deputy leadership contest ignoring the fact theres no leadership contest. As long as the candidates don't start to think we care and go all flash on the internet (with the exceptions of Hazel, the silly moo)

[Silent Hunter]

Did anyone catch the Deputy Leadership debate on Newsnight?

[Rural Radical]

Did anyone catch the Deputy Leadership debate on Newsnight?

Yep.

I thought Benn and Johnson came across well.

Harman is oppurtunistic. You would think she wasnt a minister.

Hain indecisive.

Blears, very keen but no individual personality.

Cruddas. Good idead about council housing but out of his depth.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yep. I'm now leaning towards Benn. Not sure about the order of things though...

[Rural Radical]

Yep. I'm now leaning towards Benn. Not sure about the order of things though...

Benn and Johnson were the only two who gave straight yes or no answers.

They were miles ahaed of the rest IMO.

[Silent Hunter]

Is it an STV election?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it an STV election?

More or less, yes.

[Silent Hunter]

Ah, I hate STV elections...

Will probably second preference Johnson.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A map of CLP nominations:



Sadly, the very short amount of time that CLP's had to nominate candidates meant that most didn't. Despite that there are some interesting patterns to be seen.

Btw, note the strength of Benn and Harman in the rural CLP's. They might well be doing better with Left members than Cruddas is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A YouGov poll the other day shows Johnson and Benn in, essentially, a dead heat.
The internals, some of which are quite interesting, are here:

http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/labmember.pdf
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/labmembers.pdf

Sadly, the union section of the poll is probably a little dodgy for various reasons (mainly due to oversampling of white collar trade unionists, activists and the like), but...

[Silent Hunter]

I got leaflets from Blears and Harman today. Blears talked about winning back Hornchurch in hers. That's a tad unlikely considering the seat's being abolished...

[Rural Radical]

I got the Harman leaflet. I recycled it straight away.

[afleitch]

They seem to be going hell for leather in what's really, as we would call, a 'wee pretendy' race.

[Silent Hunter]

Polls have now closed. Result will be announced tomorrow.

[minionofmidas]

Al objects to making threads about polls, so I'll put it here:
Labour 39
Tories 36
LD 15.
First clear Labour lead (though still within MoE) in a while.

[afleitch]

Al objects to making threads about polls, so I'll put it here:
Labour 39
Tories 36
LD 15.
First clear Labour lead (though still within MoE) in a while.

From the wonderful people at MORI. Though at least they admit to not wishing to make a projected vote share (this poll is not) but a snapshot of recent movement. As a result they are very volatile. More bad news for the Lib Dems though.

[Ben.]

Al objects to making threads about polls, so I'll put it here:
Labour 39
Tories 36
LD 15.
First clear Labour lead (though still within MoE) in a while.

The long awaited "Brown Bounce"... admittedly it is a Mori poll (who have a track record of being pretty volatile and unreliable) and the field work was carried out before the "Ashdown Cabinet incident", but despite all that its a trend thats likely to reflected in the other mainstream pollsters... in the end it'll be interesting to see how long any bounce is maintained, in all likelihood we wont have an 'settled' view of the political landscape until the end of the summer, it will also be critical for Cameron (and to a lesser extent Ming) to weather the nerves within his party that any Labour bounce might prompt.           

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks for respecting the polls policy

---

MORI's headline numbers aren't usually that interesting (except as a way of spotting movement), but the poll they do that isn't weighted for turnout is worth following (as of last month, the numbers haven't moved in a significant way for, I think, over a year now)... not as a way of estimating how people would vote in an election, but as a measure of (semi-forced really) partisan ID.
These headline numbers look a lot like last months all-voters figures, so, maybe, all the poll is picking up is increased potential turnout.

[afleitch]

Sky News say it's Harman

[afleitch]

She's won.

[Harry Hayfield]

(as announced by the General Secretary of the Labour Party)

Benn: 4.27% MP/MEP  7.21% Members 4.9% Unions = 16.4%
Blears: 4.99% 3.00% 3.77% = 11.77%
Cruddas: 4.63% 5.67% 9.09% = 19.39%
Hain: 8.1% 3.87% 6.64% = 15.32%
Harman: 6.54% 8.04% 4.35% = 18.93%
Johnson: 8.08% 5.53% 4.55% = 18.16%

Blears eliminated

Benn: 4.74% MP/MEP  7.93% Members 5.56% Unions = 18.22%
Cruddas: 4.74% 6.01% 9.64% = 20.39%
Hain: 5.1% 4.24% 7.08% = 16.42%
Harman: 7.29% 8.80% 5.15% = 21.23%
Johnson: 11.47% 6.35% 5.91% = 23.74%

Hain eliminated

Benn: 5.65% MP/MEP  9.29% Members 7.39% Unions = 22.33%
Cruddas: 6.30% 6.58% 11.01% = 23.89%
Harman: 8.61% 10.15% 7.12% = 25.88%
Johnson: 12.78% 7.31% 7.81% = 27.90%

Benn eliminated

Cruddas: 7.65% 8.81% 13.61% = 30.06%
Harman: 10.29% 13.82% 9.46% = 33.58%
Johnson: 15.39% 10.70% 10.25% = 36.35%

Cruddas eliminated

Harman: 15.42% 18.83% 16.18% = 50.43%
Johnson: 17.91% 14.50% 17.15% = 49.56%

Johnson eliminated

Harman ELECTED

[Silent Hunter]

That's close.