Labour Leadership/Deputy Leadership Election thread

[Democratic Hawk]

The thing I don't understand is that while Labour under Blair is, at this point in time, behind Cameron's Conservatives, the polling suggests that Cameron will be even further ahead of Labour under Brown -

Any poll of voting intentions that throws in names as well as parties isn't usually worth a lot. Note that, according to polls in the autumn of 2005, the Tories would have done worse under Cameron than under the current leadership at the time.

Well, that's reassuring

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The government needs a new direction, not just a new leader. I am concerned that the next year will see the government effectively paralysed

It's only paralysed because they are scrapping with one another like mad dogs

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I don't doubt for one moment that Blair's thoughtlessness is to blame for the untenable position he is increasingly finding himself

Meanwhile, back in those halcycon days of the summer of 97, I never foresaw this scenario 9 years down the line. Expectations were high and, to some extent, these expectations haven't been realised sufficiently

Were it not for Iraq and top-up tuition fees (the government have failed to sell these), I dare say Labour would have still being sitting pretty on a three-figure seat majority; though, I concede they have lost ground in places for other reasons

Nevertheless, Blair is a good man and most steps he and his government have taken have been with the best of intentions and that includes Iraq

I'm a member of the Labour Party because its values are closest to mine than those of any other UK political party, even if I have had strong reservations about certain aspects of government policy

At the end of the day, however, this infighting sickens me. In fact, it depresses me unutterably. I remember the early to mid-1980s. The thought of an unelectable Labour Party and a Conservative government terrifies me

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Five more PPS's have resigned: Wayne David (Caerphilly), Ian Lucas (Wrexham), Mark Tami (Alyn & Deeside), Chris Mole (Ipswich) and David Wright (Telford).

Mahmood's resignation letter is now up on the BBC site. Part of it that deserves quoting is:

"The party and the Labour Government's work is more important than any individual."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The original letter, and the names of the 17 that signed it

[Democratic Hawk]

The original letter, and the names of the 17 that signed it

I won't bother. I'm depressed enough

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Iain Wright (Hartlepool) has resigned as well.

---
Blair is likely to announce tomorrow that he will be gone within a year.

[Democratic Hawk]

Blair is likely to announce tomorrow that he will be gone within a year.

It's a problem of his own ruddy making

Dave

[Ben.]

Blair is likely to announce tomorrow that he will be gone within a year.

I wonder if that wont be sufficent anymore... that said, i'd agree with Hawk, it's bizzare the state the Labour Party has got itself in, it's not as though Blair is dragging the party down anymore than anyone else would, there is no "Poll Tax" policy that is deeply unpopular within the country and no popular alternative within the Labour Party who might do a better job... in short it seems a pretty gobsmacking example of ,at best, "navel gazing" and, at worst, a combination of vented frustration and bitterness on the part of allies of Brown and opponants of Blair.


However I'm surprised by Wright resignation, always liked the guy myself Still no doubt has an eye to the future... but I'll restate this all seems so odd, the Labour Party seems to be working itself into a state simply for the sake of it... there is no major reason I can think of why the Labour Party would want Blair out so quickly, there is currently no better alternative electorally, the only difference is that Brown (or somone else) might apeal more to the Labour Party itself and that is a very dangerous basis for a Party to select its leader on, the last time that happened we wound up with IDS leading the Tories.

[minionofmidas]

I doubt many of those I mean would agree, but deep down Labour simply do not trust Blair to ever step down without pressure, certainly not to do so at an opportune moment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but deep down Labour simply do not trust Blair to ever step down without pressure, certainly not to do so at an opportune moment.

Pretty much. The fear is that he'll just keep dragging things out for the sake of his own ego... which is why the proposed May 31st date is irritating so many people already.

[Democratic Hawk]

There are three certainties in British politics:

1) Labour are not going to be in government forever;
2) Nor will the Conservatives be after them;
3) But the Liberal Democrats ain't ever

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A YouGov poll of Labour members says that 59% want Blair to resign before May, while 38% want him to go this autumn.
If Blair is forced out, 39% of members said they would hold Labour backbenchers responsible, but only 7% think that it'd be Brown's fault.
Another YouGov poll (of the general public and taken over the past few days; ie when things were at their height) shows that 58% of people want Blair to resign this year, that a majority think that Blair is a Lame Duck and that a majority of Labour supporters think that their party is sharply divided.
It also had a voting intentions question; no statistically significant changes on the last YouGov poll.

[minionofmidas]

A YouGov poll of Labour members says that 59% want Blair to resign before May, while 38% want him to go this autumn.

So how many people want him to go in May, how many want him to go after May, and how many want him not to go at all?
(I assume that "while" should be "including"?)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A YouGov poll of Labour members says that 59% want Blair to resign before May, while 38% want him to go this autumn.

So how many people want him to go in May, how many want him to go after May, and how many want him not to go at all?

Not sure; I'll have a look.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The full poll is here: http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/Labfinal060907.pdf

It also has some matchup polls:

Leader

Brown 57%
Reid 10%
Johnson 8%
Miliband 7%
McDonnell 5%

Deputy Leader

Benn 27%
Johnson 18%
Miliband 17%
Harman 10%
Blears 7%

Odd choice of names for the second poll; both Hain and Straw are tipped to run by most observers.

Various other questions, some of which are quite interesting.

[Ben.]

The full poll is here: http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/Labfinal060907.pdf

It also has some matchup polls:

Leader

Brown 57%
Reid 10%
Johnson 8%
Miliband 7%
McDonnell 5%

Deputy Leader

Benn 27%
Johnson 18%
Miliband 17%
Harman 10%
Blears 7%

Odd choice of names for the second poll; both Hain and Straw are tipped to run by most observers.

Various other questions, some of which are quite interesting.

Impressive lead for Benn, but your right that the poll should have included Straw and Hain (not sure about Blears running to be honest)... while I think Brown probably would command that sort of lead initally in a membership ballot i could see a good campaigner like Johnson doing very well and closing the gap significantly where he to run.

Out of interest are their any polls of the Tory leadership race a few months out? I seem to remember YouGov doing one of Tory members and showing a strong Davis lead over Clark... any details of that still about? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Impressive lead for Benn, but your right that the poll should have included Straw and Hain (not sure about Blears running to be honest)... while I think Brown probably would command that sort of lead initally in a membership ballot i could see a good campaigner like Johnson doing very well and closing the gap significantly where he to run.

IMO Johnson will only run if he thinks he has a good chance of winning; which is very unlikely at the moment o/c.
I'm pretty sure he'll run for Deputy though.

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I'll have a look...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Miliband has confirmed that he won't run for Leader or Deputy Leader, while Hain has confirmed that he will run for Deputy Leader (making him the first declared candidate I think).
Both have endorsed Brown for Leader.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another poll (Populus) is out, showing Brown over 50%. No details.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dagenham M.P Jon Cruddas has confirmed that he's seriously considering running for Deputy. He's got very close links to the Unions (especially the T&G) and is best known for his work in fighting the BNP (which was more that partially undermined by that **** Hodge earlier this year).

[Ben.]

Dagenham M.P Jon Cruddas has confirmed that he's seriously considering running for Deputy. He's got very close links to the Unions (especially the T&G) and is best known for his work in fighting the BNP (which was more that partially undermined by that **** Hodge earlier this year).

But if Hain and Johnson run, perhaps Straw and a Hard Left candidate, doesnt seem to give him much room, what would his potential support be like amoungst the PLP and CLPs?... on the issue of the main leadership race, it seems as though one of either two things is going to happen (if you belive the reporting) a Brown "coronation" of a Johnson challenge... in the end though I just dont see how Brown doesnt wind up as leader even against a challenge by Johnson (a shame really).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But if Hain and Johnson run, perhaps Straw and a Hard Left candidate, doesnt seem to give him much room

Remember; one third of the vote goes to members of the Affliated Unions. As he's a good, solid T&G man, that's potentially more than enough room.

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Not sure about the PLP, but a lot of CLP's like him.

Cruddas also has the advantage of not being part of the Government, meaning that (to a greater extent than the other candidates) he is free to speak his mind.

[minionofmidas]

Given how strongly Brits feel about loyality in the cabinet, he's right.

[Ben.]

But if Hain and Johnson run, perhaps Straw and a Hard Left candidate, doesnt seem to give him much room

Remember; one third of the vote goes to members of the Affliated Unions. As he's a good, solid T&G man, that's potentially more than enough room.

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Not sure about the PLP, but a lot of CLP's like him.

Cruddas also has the advantage of not being part of the Government, meaning that (to a greater extent than the other candidates) he is free to speak his mind.

Good pionts, seems like the kind of candidate who might do rather well... the Labour membership (from my experiance) might well take to him, esspeically if Brown seemed a lock or the leadership was basically a Brown V Johnson fight...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

esspeically if Brown seemed a lock or the leadership was basically a Brown V Johnson fight...

And if it ain't one, it'll be 'tuther.