Labour Leadership/Deputy Leadership Election thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It begins; John McDonnell (the hard-Left M.P for Hayes & Harlington; that's the area around Heathrow Airport for those that don't know London) has pretty much declared that he'll run for the Leadership whent he post opens up. An official annoucement is likely on Friday, although his intentions were pretty clear at the Durham Miners Gala a few days ago.

I'll write up some short profiles of possible candidates shortly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Other MPs who've said they would stand against Gordon Brown in order for a "fair transition of power" include Lynne Jones (B'ham Selly Oak) and of course Michael Meacher (Oldham West and Royton). I wonder if there are more lefties to come..

Let's see then...

Potential leadership candidates

Gordon Brown, John McDonnell, Lynne Jones, Michael Meacher, Alan Simpson, Alan Milburn, John Reid... and potentially just about anyone on the next list...

Potential deputy leadership candidates

Alan Johnson, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, David Miliband, Tessa Jowell (lol), Peter Hain... and maybe even Blunkett or Clarke, trying to pull a Lazarus? Most on the the list above are possible as well.

Did I miss anyone?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did I miss something? Is Tony Blair resigning?

No; but it's likely to happen at some point within the next year now. Some people think it could happen as early as Conference.

I started this thread now, because we have our first declared candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't worry laborites. PM Cameron won't be that different from Blair.

1. It's "Labourites" not "laborites".

2. "P.M Cameron" is far from certain (more likely than P.M Howard and a hell of a lot more likely than P.M Hague or (sns) P.M IDS o/c, but that's not saying much), and anyone who assumes that it is certain, clearly doesn't have a clue what they're talking about...

3. And the same goes to the amusing idea that the policies of a future Tory-led Government would be anything like those of the post-1997 Labour Government.

4. EDIT: and I'm just slipping something in here, for future use:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

it isnt that Labour are in a dire electoral position just a poor one with no real indication of how they get out of it

The Labour Party is not actually in a poor electoral position; the P.M is certainly in a less-than-great political position, but those two things have very little to do with each other now.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

True. Didn't even happen in the '80's.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I've always thought that that title (within the PLP) was the personal property of Harry Cohen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think that it is an amusing idea at all. A nfuture Tory government will not be like Labour in every or even the majority of aspects policy wise, but it cannot be suggested that what Labour has done, for good and for bad will be ignored or rolled back by the Tories.

The idea that a future Tory government would do that is also out of the question. A sharp change in policy (and such changes are never really given much media attention; the media is only ever interested in rhetoric and soundbites) would be almost certain. And that is what has traditionally happend with new governments anyway.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

True (although it was impossible to roll much of that back anyway; there was a lot of rolling-back in the parts of Government that I'm interested in, btw) but the difference in policy between the post-1997 Labour Government and the 1979-1997 Tory Governments are huge (if frequently low-key).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Really? he doesn't rebel nearly as much as say McDonnell or Corbyn, then again he did accept a description of himself as a "class warrior" I think.

Well no, he doesn't rebel a great deal. He's a Marxist though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not really sure... he's certainly ethnically Jewish (if that's the right way to put it).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh, he's definately that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The slightest move in any direction always sees seats falling. Personally I suspect we'll see strong swings, maybe very strong ones, to the Tories in some sorts of constituency, and swings back to Labour in other sorts. And I'm increasingly sure that we'll see the far-right (and by that I don't mean just the BNP) poll strongly in areas that feel abandoned by the new direction (whatever it is) that the Tories are moving in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oxford East

Despite the slashing of the majority last time, Labour seem to have (if local election and local by-election results (and those defections) are anything to go by) got it's act together there a bit.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not so sure about that one; demographic changes in Watford are very bad for us, and the LibDem machine doesn't look like it'll disappear anytime soon.
Still... at least we actually won a ward in Watford this year... only one, but that's better than the years running up to 2005...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We get utterly screwed by insane boundary changes there. The rise of the far right in Essex makes things complicated though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IMO I can see the Labour vote picking up in Rural (working Class) Areas.

Provided the Party actually puts some effort into it, definately. Hunstanton result a few weeks ago was very encouraging.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That depends what you mean by Commuterland; in the classic Commuterland area (NW of central London), no, absolutely not (the area is far too ethnically mixed and far too Jewish for that to happen), but in the commuter belt they (and other far-right parties) seem to be. One type of ward they've been doing in well in, are some of the ex-LCC ex-council estates (which have been moving upmarket a lot recently), but if the recent Bridge by-election in Redbridge is anything to go by (and I think it probably is...), then they seem to be picking up steam in privately-built suburbs as well.
This time next year, the council with the second most BNP councillers will almost certainly be Epping Forest.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't think there are to be any major changes to Kemptown (and obviously the rise of the far right isn't exactly a factor there ).

What's irritating about the Basildon changes is that it would have been possible to have drawn a proper Basildon constituency (the current seat doesn't include Pitsea) this time round... instead, the town is, and entirely artificially, split even worse than it is already (with the most working class wards going into the same seat as Billericay. Sick joke there...).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well no, he doesn't rebel a great deal. He's a Marxist though.

How many Marxists do you  reckon are in the PLP? 20? Probably most of the campaign group, McDonnell included..

Not sure. But there's obviously a difference between those who are open about it, and those who aren't

Certainly the right of the Party is full of ex-Marxists though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results of the 2003 elections in Brighton:



It's a bit crude, but gives a general idea of things.

Kemptown also includes four wards from Lewes DC; East Saltdean is a Lib/Con marginal, while all three Peacehaven wards are Tory (although Peacehaven East seems to have a large-ish Labour minority vote).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice work; is that total votes or average share?

---

BBC is reporting that Walter Wolfgang has been elected to the N.E.C. Not heard who else has been though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From the Labour website, the following have been elected from the CLP's...

Ann Black
Ellie Reeves
Christine Shawcroft
Peter Wheeler
Peter Willsman
Walter Wolfgang

And the following from councillers:

Sir Jeremy Beecham
Sally Powell

---

So 4 out of the 6 elected were from the Grassroots Alliance (including Wolfgang) and Baldock lost her seat. Looks like a win for the Left to me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In an interview with the Times, Blair has apparently refused to name an exit date, has said that he won't quit at Conference (drat), and has apparently called on people to "let me get on with my job".

A "Thatchering" is looking increasingly likely...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

May 2007 would seem the most likely time for it to happen, but to be honest it could happen at any time between Conference and then... unless he names a date at *some point* he's unlikely to last long beyond May.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a rumour that Blair will announce his intention to retire before the Scottish/Welsh/[English] District elections, but will actually retire a little later than that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are rumours that a letter calling for Blair to stand down (and signed by M.P's elected in 2005) is doing the rounds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems as though 17 "normally loyal" M.P's have signed a letter calling on him to quit; one was Chris Bryant and another was Sion Simon.
And Albert Owen (M.P for Anglesey/Ynys Mon) has confirmed that he's written a private letter asking for the same thing.

Meanwhile 49 M.P's have signed another letter, supporting an orderly transition and all that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I still think the best resignation was Wilson's. Take 'em all by suprise (admittedly it was quite a tragic one in a way; he only did it because he knew he was going to go the same way that his mother did, and he didn't want it to unfold in the full glare of the media).

Part of the problem with him [Blair] and his legacy is that he's too damn impatient; he certainly has one, and if he had the understanding of history that most Labour politicians do he'd have a good idea what it'd be (like Wilson and the Open University).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's emerged that Tom Watson (best known for the spoof teens section on his blog, and for his role in the Hodge Hill by-election) was one of the 17. He is currently a junior Defense Minister...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'Mili-bland' has of course tried to throw out a tidbit to help alay fears. But it almost immediately reminded me of Michael Howard shoring up IDS in those final few months....

It is o/c much harder to get rid of a Labour leader than a Tory or (as we saw earlier this year) LibDem leader. Miliband's remarks are interesting in that they confirm what the apparent limits of loyalty are (ie; one year).

Meanwhile, Charles Clarke's swing to the Left continues

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Armstrong has said he'll be gone by next year's Conference. I'd be suprised if she was wrong on that sort of thing.

Some other people who signed the letter include: Khalid Mahmood (Birmingham Perry Barr), Wayne David (Caerphilly), Ian Lucas (Wrexham) and David Wright (Telford). All PPS's.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The public infighting has been going on for a few months now...