How will the political landscape be in 2024?

[Kevin]

How will the political landscape be in 2024?

[Alcon]

That's kind of a wide-ranging, unanswerable question.

[MasterJedi]

No one knows, wait 18 years and we'll find out.

[Colin]

2024:

After an election that was denounced the world over for the ruling government's use of vote rigging in the election the National People's Republican Movement, which was formed during the State Emergency of 2013 by Republicans, Democrats and a majority of Independents, trounced the opposition People's Democratic Rally for Democracy with over 92% of the vote. In truth though the People's Democratic Rally for Democracy was only allowed to actively campaign in a few Northeastern states and along with massive reports of fraud, PDRD members and candidates were reported to have been arrested and tortured by National Intellegence Agency units. There were also reports that some had been beaten, robbed, and assaulted by NPRM voters, especially in the NPRM heartland of the South. As was usual in order to maintain the spectre of democratic government the NRPM allowed the PDRD to win the District of Columbia and keep President Tancredo from a 100% electoral vote win. This policy was first instituted by the second NPRM President, Evan Bayh, who believed that the only person in American history who should have the honor of winning all Electoral Votes should be George Washington. Turnout was a low 39.5% and throughout the South and parts of the West the NPRM achieved 100% of the vote.

President Tom Tancredo (NPRM)/Vice President Jim Webb (NPRM): 92% 535 EVs

State Senator John Simpson (PDRD)/Mayor Richard Martinez (PDRD): 8% 3 EVs

[Kevin]

Seriously lets have a debate about politics 18 years from now.

[Colin]

Seriously lets have a debate about politics 18 years from now.

I was being serious. How could you doubt my seriousness.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Well, provided the Lord doesn't come back by then, the US will be electing at the least our 46th President and at most our 48th President (provided nobody dies before their term is up).

In terms of who will be in control by then and by how much, nobody will know until maybe the 2020 Presidential Election or the 2018 Mid-Term Elections at the earliest.

[MaC]

Seriously lets have a debate about politics 18 years from now.

It's kind of hard to seriously debate something so far in the future Kevin.  I mean Colin could be right.  Hell I'm 21 right now, by then I'd be old enough to run-since the future's incredibly hard to predict I don't think it's an impossibility.
That said:

458-National Authoritarian Moderate Party PV=89%
80-Libertarian Alliance Resistance Movement PV=10%
0-Socialist Sex Party PV=1%

you never know... could be...

[Kevin]

The States in gray are pontential Swing States.


 

[WMS]

Seriously lets have a debate about politics 18 years from now.

It's kind of hard to seriously debate something so far in the future Kevin.  I mean Colin could be right.  Hell I'm 21 right now, by then I'd be old enough to run-since the future's incredibly hard to predict I don't think it's an impossibility.
That said:

458-National Authoritarian Moderate Party PV=89%
80-Libertarian Alliance Resistance Movement PV=10%
0-Socialist Sex Party PV=1%

you never know... could be...

The NAMP would so take NM.

[Alcon]

Seriously lets have a debate about politics 18 years from now.

It's kind of hard to seriously debate something so far in the future Kevin.  I mean Colin could be right.  Hell I'm 21 right now, by then I'd be old enough to run-since the future's incredibly hard to predict I don't think it's an impossibility.
That said:

458-National Authoritarian Moderate Party PV=89%
80-Libertarian Alliance Resistance Movement PV=10%
0-Socialist Sex Party PV=1%

you never know... could be...

What kind of weird libertarian fetish do you think the southwest has?

[Colin]

I mean Colin could be right.

Of course I'm right. Haven't you seen my time machine?

[MaC]

Seriously lets have a debate about politics 18 years from now.

It's kind of hard to seriously debate something so far in the future Kevin.  I mean Colin could be right.  Hell I'm 21 right now, by then I'd be old enough to run-since the future's incredibly hard to predict I don't think it's an impossibility.
That said:

458-National Authoritarian Moderate Party PV=89%
80-Libertarian Alliance Resistance Movement PV=10%
0-Socialist Sex Party PV=1%

you never know... could be...

The NAMP would so take NM.

You guys do get points for electing Gary Johnson.

(sigh, I'll justify all of them)

 Arizona's fairly conservative-libertarian.
Alaska-see above
Hawaii- decides one day it hates the establishment and sides with Alaska against the mainland party.
Texas, should not have been messed with
Nevada-no income tax+legal prostitution
Colorado-home of South Park-will turn around when the creators get elected Gov. and Lt. Gov
Maine-fluke
NH-FSP actually has sucess
Vermont-gets corrupted by NH

plus, these incredible overgeneralizations will hold weight over any other "typical" political future, so nyah!

[Lincoln Republican]

2024

The political landscape takes a drastic change. 

A strong Independent Party emerges, capitalizing on the nation's weariness with the two traditional parties.

A credible and charismatic Independent Presidential candidate runs in 2024 and makes major inroads.

2024 Presidential election
Independent           210 EV 33% PV (Green)
Republican              189 EV  34% PV (Blue)
Democrat                139 EV  33% PV (Red)

Not only does the Independent Presidential candidate make major inroads, but Independent Party candidates for the House and Senate win substantial seats, resulting in a three way split in the House and Senate.

House standings, Republican 152, Democrat 147, Independent 136, with no party controlling a majority of the state delegations.

Senate standings, Republican 37, Democrat 35, Independent 28.

A period of political uncertainty takes hold. 

All three parties soon realize they will have to compromise and work closely together in order to choose a President, choose a Vice President, and pass legislation that is for the good of the country, not for the good of the party.               

[WMS]

Seriously lets have a debate about politics 18 years from now.

It's kind of hard to seriously debate something so far in the future Kevin.  I mean Colin could be right.  Hell I'm 21 right now, by then I'd be old enough to run-since the future's incredibly hard to predict I don't think it's an impossibility.
That said:

458-National Authoritarian Moderate Party PV=89%
80-Libertarian Alliance Resistance Movement PV=10%
0-Socialist Sex Party PV=1%

you never know... could be...

The NAMP would so take NM.

You guys do get points for electing Gary Johnson.

That had much more to do with some spectacularly nasty internal splits amongst the Democrats.

[7,052,770]

2024

The political landscape takes a drastic change. 

A strong Independent Party emerges, capitalizing on the nation's weariness with the two traditional parties.

A credible and charismatic Independent Presidential candidate runs in 2024 and makes major inroads.

2024 Presidential election
Independent           210 EV 33% PV (Green)
Republican              189 EV  34% PV (Blue)
Democrat                139 EV  33% PV (Red)

Not only does the Independent Presidential candidate make major inroads, but Independent Party candidates for the House and Senate win substantial seats, resulting in a three way split in the House and Senate.

House standings, Republican 152, Democrat 147, Independent 136, with no party controlling a majority of the state delegations.

Senate standings, Republican 37, Democrat 35, Independent 28.

A period of political uncertainty takes hold. 

All three parties soon realize they will have to compromise and work closely together in order to choose a President, choose a Vice President, and pass legislation that is for the good of the country, not for the good of the party.               

NEVER use that color scheme again.

[Reignman]

The 2024 election map might look like:

Image Link

Because of 2 electoral college changes, the dems'd get about 267-268 electoral votes on this map instead of 260

[Colin]

The 2024 election map might look like:

Image Link

Because of 2 electoral college changes, the dems'd get about 267-268 electoral votes on this map instead of 260

Oh yes of course the map will look almost exactly like 2008. I mean 18 years ago



that was the result. I mean those solid Republican states of New Jersey, Delaware, New Hampshire and Maine couldn't possibly become bastions of the Democratic Party.

[Reignman]

1988 wasn't a 50/50 year.

[Colin]

1988 wasn't a 50/50 year.

Doesn't matter. Let's take a look at a 50/50 year from 30 years ago, granted that's a longer time frame than this question asked but still.



Well that's a 50/50 election from 30 years ago and look how much has changed. Carter swept the South, something which probably no Democrat could do now, and he lost all of the West and parts of the Northeast. This is just 30 years of electoral change. Plus you have to factor in that the next 20 years, just like the past 20 years, wont be made up of constant 50/50 elections, unless we get into a rut which is basically equivalent of the period between 1872 and 1896. That's the thing. It is impossible for anyone to extrapolate what the map will look like twenty years out. Anyone could be right, of course, but my money is always on the on that looks like the least likely to happen. Since it only took 8 years from the South being the only Democratic stronghold during a landslide, in the 1856 election, to being the only Republican stronghold during a landslide, 1964, and only 16 years until it was won by over 70% of the vote by a Republican during a landslide, 1972.

This map was always my prediction for the future so I will stick with it. The Republicans become populists and the Democrats become moderate libertarians. Thus resulting in this map:



But I'm starting to think that my other prediction might be more realistic.

[jerusalemcar5]

That quote is just to reference you.  I am thinking possible except Wyoming, South Dakota, Pennsylvania,  Michigan, New Jersey, Connecticut, VERMONT, or Hawaii.  I don't like your picks there.

[Reignman]

[GOP = Terrorists]

Well after the two party system collapses after the 2016 elections:

[WMS]

Well after the two party system collapses after the 2016 elections:

Looks like an interesting what-if scenario. *roots for the Centrists*

[muon2]

Well after the two party system collapses after the 2016 elections:

A collapse like that would require an issue as deep and divisive as slavery in 1860. The central role of slavery was already established by the mid-1840's, so we should already be able to point to an equally deep issue today if it causes collapse by 2020. What issue today will still be there in 2020 and be deep enough to fracture both parties?