How will the political landscape be in 2024?

[Person Man]

Well, provided the Lord doesn't come back by then, the US will be electing at the least our 46th President and at most our 48th President (provided nobody dies before their term is up).

In terms of who will be in control by then and by how much, nobody will know until maybe the 2020 Presidential Election or the 2018 Mid-Term Elections at the earliest.

I actually hope he does come back by then.... then again, it would be fun to use my 'tardis to see into the future.

[Colin]

A slight update to my earlier post, I got some things wrong in the first one. Had to take another trip in the time machine to get it perfectly straight:

2024:

After an election that was denounced the world over for the ruling government's use of vote rigging in the election the Democratic National People's Republican Movement, which was formed during the State Emergency of 2013 by Republicans, Democrats and a majority of Independents, trounced the opposition National Popular Action for Democracy with over 92% of the vote. In truth though the National Popular Action for Democracy was only allowed to actively campaign in a few Northeastern states and along with massive reports of fraud, NPAD members and candidates were reported to have been arrested and tortured by National Intellegence Agency units. There were also reports that some had been beaten, robbed, and assaulted by DNPRM voters, especially in the DNPRM heartland of the South. As was usual in order to maintain the spectre of democratic government the DNPRM allowed the NPAD to win the District of Columbia and keep President Webb from a 100% electoral vote win. This policy was first instituted by the second DNPRM President, Evan Bayh, who believed that the only person in American history who should have the honor of winning all Electoral Votes should be George Washington. Turnout was a low 39.5% and throughout the South and parts of the West the DNPRM achieved 100% of the vote.

President Jim Webb (DNPRM)/Vice President George P. Bush (DNPRM): 92% 535 EVs

State Senator John Simpson (NPAD)/Mayor Richard Martinez (NPAD): 8% 3 EVs

[Verily]

Florida, Georgia, and Illinois would be close.  Most others aren't.

Why do you think Illinois would trend to the Republicans? Recent indications say the opposite. (Same's true of Georgia and the Democrats, though I can see the logic in the trend reversing there). Chicago simply comprises such a large portion of Illinois that you need more than a solidification of the non-Chicago Republican vote.

[NDN]

Not going to make any predictions. What the map looks like will depend heavily on which party is in power when the dollar implodes. Not joking.

[War on Want]

This is between a Populist Hispanic loving Democratic Party and a Liberitarian Esque, Immigrant hating Republican Party.
Pennsylvania and Ohio are still the swing states, but Texas is also very important with its Minority-Majority population. If it was not for the shaky alliance between Unions and Immigrants, then the Democrats would have been crushed.

Under this Unions decide to create an Unholy alliance with the Republicans against the Illegal Immigrants. The Democrats are crushed.

[KEmperor]

Seriously lets have a debate about politics 18 years from now.

Why don't we simply have the debate now?  Why do you want to wait 18 years to have this debate?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I don't see how anyone could think the Democrats will move to the right socially, considering how much more socially liberal our generation is from the last.

Myth.

If anything the current generation of Americans is probably the most conservative since the war; except on goober issues like Gay marriage.

[Nym90]

That's kind of a wide-ranging, unanswerable question.

That's for sure. No one in 1990 would've very accurately predicted what it'd look like today.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't see how anyone could think the Democrats will move to the right socially, considering how much more socially liberal our generation is from the last.

Myth.

If anything the current generation of Americans is probably the most conservative since the war; except on goober issues like Gay marriage.

Go on? How so are we more conservative? Certainly not on issues of race, gender or sexual orientation.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I don't see how anyone could think the Democrats will move to the right socially, considering how much more socially liberal our generation is from the last.

Myth.

If anything the current generation of Americans is probably the most conservative since the war; except on goober issues like Gay marriage.

Go on? How so are we more conservative? Certainly not on issues of race, gender or sexual orientation.

Only because that is the Status Quo in intellectual circles. My point here is not exactly what most "young people" believe (unless it's happens to be a violent overthrow of the Bourgeoise state, but it's not.) but why, and I think in this way there is far less debate and acceptance of "norms" whether they "liberal" or "conservative" then there was in any previous recent generation. How much "Young People" are actually passionate about the war in Iraq for instance, compared to political activity in the 1950s and 1960s to today shows how pathetic so-called "liberalism" is and is still fighting the battles it won almost 40 years ago. (The 1950s was actually a very progressive decade in many ways; certainly it does not get the reputation it deserves. Also in terms of the Arts and culture this one of the least productive and least questioning decades since probably the early 18th Century.)

Plus liberal attitudes towards Sexual Orientation, Gender or Race are no longer at the cutting edge (or should not be) of liberalism, the liberals won that arguement 30 years ago and we are just arguing over the whereabouts of the line.

[Nym90]

Pretty much dominated by the Democratic Party, with the Republicans hunkered down in their Deep South and prairie redoubts, and a few states here and there in the inner-mountain west, like Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah. 

Seriously?

I was somewhat surprised since I seem to recall Frodo predicting the long term demise of the Democrats a year or two ago.

[12th Doctor]

As I have said numerous times, you can't anticipate what things will be like 20 years down the road.  You can guess with some level of accuracy what the demographics of certain areas will be like, and thus have a decent idea of how they might be inclined, but the parties themselves change, and the issues change.  There are going to be huge issues then that we haven't even thought of now.

[Josh/Devilman88]

As I have said numerous times, you can't anticipate what things will be like 20 years down the road.  You can guess with some level of accuracy what the demographics of certain areas will be like, and thus have a decent idea of how they might be inclined, but the parties themselves change, and the issues change.  There are going to be huge issues then that we haven't even thought of now.

Yea, like if Robots can vote or not....

[Josh/Devilman88]

Yea, like if Robots can vote or not....

They already do.  As do the dead.

So is that how Bush won FL in 2000? The dead voted for him?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Yea, like if Robots can vote or not....

They already do.  As do the dead.

So is that how Bush won FL in 2000? The dead voted for him?

Though Florida is the death capital of the world, dead all across the country vote for both Democrats and Republicans.  It's quite a remarkable show of will-power and spiritual presence.

And they say halloween is when they dead come back to life! Ha guess again, it's election day is when the dead walks again.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

That's kind of a wide-ranging, unanswerable question.

That's for sure. No one in 1990 would've very accurately predicted what it'd look like today.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yea, like if Robots can vote or not....

They already do.  As do the dead.

So is that how Bush won FL in 2000? The dead voted for him?

Though Florida is the death capital of the world, dead all across the country vote for both Democrats and Republicans.  It's quite a remarkable show of will-power and spiritual presence.

And they say halloween is when they dead come back to life! Ha guess again, it's election day is when the dead walks again.

No, they take some time to get back in their graves, and then they see the polling stations and think, "Since I'm out here, why don't I vote?"

[Gabu]

I'm going to make a very far-fetched prediction and say that the political landscape in 2024 will either be very different from how it is right now or it will not be.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Something like this:

Red and Blue = Dem. & Rep. respectively

There is more party unity for economic issues within the Democratic party (some Republican candidates have to run as labor- and working-class-friendly (sort of the opposite today, where DLC interests seem to hold sway) to have any chance of winning.  The dark Red and light blue tend to elect socially/culturally-liberal candidates, while light red and dark blue tend to elect socially/culturally-conservative candidates.  In all respects, the leftist side is able to produce though Democrats only a functional majority on economic/labor issues, while they sometimes must form coalitions with socially/culturally-liberal Republicans.  There is talk of secession in Georgia, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Louisiana.

For the most part, Democrats are able to hold socially-conservative voters while legislating and enacting comprehensively-leftist legislation because they clearly distinguish themselves and articulate differences with Republicans--from taxes to health care (it is at this time, that we start moving from the health care system John Edwards and Congress enacted in 2010 towards a single-payer health care) to trade (WTO is abolished and all U.S. trade agreements are either canceled are renegotiated such that we adhere to and demand stringent labor and human rights as well as environmental protection).  Utilities are placed in the hands of people where they belong in the form of cooperatives.  Family- and community-based Agriculture and wind energy farms are (re-)established in the Midwest and Great Plains while solar energy farms are established out West.  All U.S. private military firms are abolished and the U.S. has pressured other countries to abandon them. 

Although our presence in the Middle East declines, we have worked with leaders in the region to become less reliant on oil, and create more equitable conditions for their citizens, and subsequently violence precipitously falls.  Because these diplomatic efforts have paid off and convinced U.S. citizens, by-and-large, that we can make the world a better place and increase our own security without always using our military, the only significant operations in which they must engage are counterterrorism efforts in the Deep South and Interior West.

Finally Democrats become more of a big tent party without really having to adopt the socially-conservative factional elements in their party because they adopt an approach that tries to reconcile tradition with tolerance.  No excuse abortions are outlawed in the second half of pregnancy while contraception becomes much more accessible.  Civil marriages are replaced by civil unions and allowed for any two individuals above the age of consent, while the religious institution of marriage is restored to religious bodies themselves.  Democrats pledge not to use such issues as Republicans have without every delivering.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Based totally on trends and guessing:

Democrats: 211
Republican: 124
Tossup: 203

[auburntiger]

Based totally on trends and guessing:

Democrats: 211
Republican: 124
Tossup: 203

How do you change the EV's of the states?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Based totally on trends and guessing:

Democrats: 211
Republican: 124
Tossup: 203

How do you change the EV's of the states?

Once you copy and paste the code for the map, just go to each state and alter the numbers for the EV totals.

[12th Doctor]

Something like this:

Red and Blue = Dem. & Rep. respectively

There is more party unity for economic issues within the Democratic party (some Republican candidates have to run as labor- and working-class-friendly (sort of the opposite today, where DLC interests seem to hold sway) to have any chance of winning.  The dark Red and light blue tend to elect socially/culturally-liberal candidates, while light red and dark blue tend to elect socially/culturally-conservative candidates.  In all respects, the leftist side is able to produce though Democrats only a functional majority on economic/labor issues, while they sometimes must form coalitions with socially/culturally-liberal Republicans.  There is talk of secession in Georgia, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Louisiana.

For the most part, Democrats are able to hold socially-conservative voters while legislating and enacting comprehensively-leftist legislation because they clearly distinguish themselves and articulate differences with Republicans--from taxes to health care (it is at this time, that we start moving from the health care system John Edwards and Congress enacted in 2010 towards a single-payer health care) to trade (WTO is abolished and all U.S. trade agreements are either canceled are renegotiated such that we adhere to and demand stringent labor and human rights as well as environmental protection).  Utilities are placed in the hands of people where they belong in the form of cooperatives.  Family- and community-based Agriculture and wind energy farms are (re-)established in the Midwest and Great Plains while solar energy farms are established out West.  All U.S. private military firms are abolished and the U.S. has pressured other countries to abandon them. 

Although our presence in the Middle East declines, we have worked with leaders in the region to become less reliant on oil, and create more equitable conditions for their citizens, and subsequently violence precipitously falls.  Because these diplomatic efforts have paid off and convinced U.S. citizens, by-and-large, that we can make the world a better place and increase our own security without always using our military, the only significant operations in which they must engage are counterterrorism efforts in the Deep South and Interior West.

Finally Democrats become more of a big tent party without really having to adopt the socially-conservative factional elements in their party because they adopt an approach that tries to reconcile tradition with tolerance.  No excuse abortions are outlawed in the second half of pregnancy while contraception becomes much more accessible.  Civil marriages are replaced by civil unions and allowed for any two individuals above the age of consent, while the religious institution of marriage is restored to religious bodies themselves.  Democrats pledge not to use such issues as Republicans have without every delivering.

Is that map a joke?  Even if the country swings so far to the Left, the Republican Party will just adjust as one of the major parties has always adjusted to remain competetive.

[12th Doctor]

Based totally on trends and guessing:

Democrats: 211
Republican: 124
Tossup: 203

I think that both Missouri and Tennessee will lose an EV.

Where is the evidence that Indiana and Kentucky will gain one a each?  Certainly North Carolina and Virginia will gain before they do.

Growth is going to become unsustainable in Florida... and even more so if there is either a severe economic slow down, or any rise in sea level.

Severe water shortages are going to hamper growth in the Southwest... whether climate change makes things drier or not and there is no evidence that New Mexico will grow that fast.  Again unsustainable growth and unwillingness to find a long term solution to the water problem will be the culprits.

Maryland will pick up a vote, I think.

PA and Ohio won't bleed as badly as you predict, and nor will New York.

Washington will stay the same, or even pick up a vote, barring disaster.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Based totally on trends and guessing:

Democrats: 211
Republican: 124
Tossup: 203

I think that both Missouri and Tennessee will lose an EV.

Where is the evidence that Indiana and Kentucky will gain one a each?  Certainly North Carolina and Virginia will gain before they do.

Growth is going to become unsustainable in Florida... and even more so if there is either a severe economic slow down, or any rise in sea level.

Severe water shortages are going to hamper growth in the Southwest... whether climate change makes things drier or not and there is no evidence that New Mexico will grow that fast.  Again unsustainable growth and unwillingness to find a long term solution to the water problem will be the culprits.

Maryland will pick up a vote, I think.

PA and Ohio won't bleed as badly as you predict, and nor will New York.

Washington will stay the same, or even pick up a vote, barring disaster.