I'm not a huge fan of Menendez but anyone who thinks Kean will win is crazy. Jersey isn't gonna send a Bush supporter to the Senate. His lead will increase slowly till the election and on election day he will out perform any poll upto that time.
Kean is not a Bush supporter.
1. He might not be a hard right wing nutcase who agrees with Bush on virtually every issue, and is fairly moderate, but he is still a Bush supporter
2. He has that R next to his name, which gives Bush more power. Something which is not looked upon as a good thing in Jersey.