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| |-+  Presidential Election Trends (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King)
| | |-+  2012 Electoral Vote Changes
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Author Topic: 2012 Electoral Vote Changes  (Read 12660 times)
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #25 on: July 31, 2006, 03:07:01 pm »
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What about GA and NC they? Are they right on the line of gaining one more seat?

If you look, Georgia is getting one, I doubt they are close to second.

North Carolina hopefully isn't that close.  Bad state-doesn't deserve that many electors.

Bad state?
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #26 on: July 31, 2006, 04:34:30 pm »
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What about GA and NC they? Are they right on the line of gaining one more seat?

If you look, Georgia is getting one, I doubt they are close to second.

North Carolina hopefully isn't that close.  Bad state-doesn't deserve that many electors.

Bad state?

He's a far left liberal crazy who thinks anybody in Southern states is evil. Ignore the evil.
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jerusalemcar5
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« Reply #27 on: July 31, 2006, 05:00:09 pm »
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What about GA and NC they? Are they right on the line of gaining one more seat?

If you look, Georgia is getting one, I doubt they are close to second.

North Carolina hopefully isn't that close.  Bad state-doesn't deserve that many electors.

Bad state?

He's a far left liberal crazy who thinks anybody in Southern states is evil. Ignore the evil.

That is not my view in the slightest and you know that.  I don't think the states are "evil" let alone the people.  I didn't even mention the people.

Simply, I don't like the politics, history, or current society of North Carolina.  I believe Georgia has made more strides in entering the mainstream of America, while North Carolina has not.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #28 on: July 31, 2006, 09:19:57 pm »
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What about GA and NC they? Are they right on the line of gaining one more seat?

If you look, Georgia is getting one, I doubt they are close to second.

North Carolina hopefully isn't that close.  Bad state-doesn't deserve that many electors.

Bad state?

He's a far left liberal crazy who thinks anybody in Southern states is evil. Ignore the evil.

That is not my view in the slightest and you know that.  I don't think the states are "evil" let alone the people.  I didn't even mention the people.

Simply, I don't like the politics, history, or current society of North Carolina.  I believe Georgia has made more strides in entering the mainstream of America, while North Carolina has not.

Why don't you like the history of North Carolina?

BTW Georgia is more consveriative then North Carolina.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2006, 09:22:25 pm by Josh22 »Logged
ATFFL
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« Reply #29 on: August 06, 2006, 11:05:37 am »
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The influx of upper income Republicans into suburban Atlanta is pushing Georgia further into the Republican column while the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill and Charlotte suburbs are shifting leftward. North Carolina's political future is very similar to that of neighboring Virginia.

In a way, we are there already.  Dems can be very competitive on the state level, but the national tickets are usually out of line with the state.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #30 on: December 07, 2006, 01:13:44 am »
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Applying Muon's numbers to 2004, we get:

Bush: 292
Kerry: 245.

Meaningless, but interesting.

Don't even need Ohio to win, anymore.

That is why Dems need to focus more on the regions that are actually growing. The more they try the Kerry strategy of focusing too hard on one state, the mroe lopsided future elections will be.

Because the election was so close, Kerry had to focus on a handful of states.  Only a handful were in "play".  It wouldn't make much sense for him to focus on fast growing states like Arizona and Texas, where Republicans had sizeable wins.

Ohio and Florida were his only real chances of winning.

I believe if Kerry had more states in play, we may have been talking about the 1st Mid-Term of the Kerry Administration and Kerry's re-election.  As it is, Bush won by a fairly sizeable margin as compared to 2000.

I know its been forever since anyone commented on this thread but I think Kerry had more states in play than you guys realize.  If Kerry had focused on the Mountain West + Iowa rather than Ohio and Florida he could have won.  He lost Iowa and New Mexico by less than a percentage point.  And he lost Nevada and Colorado by 2.5 and 4.5 respectively.  Although larger margins than Ohio both are smaller than Florida's margin.  Also, Kerry made significant gains over Gore's performance in both Colorado and Nevada so I'm sure he could have pushed these closer had he paid more attention to them and less to Florida where he actually lost ground compared to Gore.  If Kerry had taken NM, IA, CO, and NV he would have won.
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« Reply #31 on: December 07, 2006, 01:17:07 pm »
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Aside from Ohio and New Hampshire, Colorado was the only competitive state to swing to the Dems in 2004 despite Kerry declining nationwide from Gore's level. (Not including states like Minnesota where Nader's vote was particularly high in 2000.) It will be very competitive in 2008, Kerry having lost it by only 4.5%.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #32 on: December 07, 2006, 05:48:11 pm »
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I'm just trying to point out that the Mountain West is more competitive than people realize and it is the fastest growing region in the US which means thats where the electoral votes will be heading in 2012.  I also think Texas will be much more competitive in 2008 even.  Although it has a definate Republican lean, Clinton managed 44% there in 1996 when he was up against a non-Texan.  The dramatic increase in the Hispanic population since then plus the GOP's hardline immigration stance, and the fact that there won't be a Texas Republican on the ballot may drive this state into much more competitive territory than it has been in recent years.  I would have to say that this would be a big slap in the face to Bush on his way out though.
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« Reply #33 on: December 09, 2006, 05:00:26 pm »
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I'm just trying to point out that the Mountain West is more competitive than people realize and it is the fastest growing region in the US which means thats where the electoral votes will be heading in 2012.  I also think Texas will be much more competitive in 2008 even.  Although it has a definate Republican lean, Clinton managed 44% there in 1996 when he was up against a non-Texan.  The dramatic increase in the Hispanic population since then plus the GOP's hardline immigration stance, and the fact that there won't be a Texas Republican on the ballot may drive this state into much more competitive territory than it has been in recent years.  I would have to say that this would be a big slap in the face to Bush on his way out though.

Clinton was also from the South and won the last vestiges of Dixiecrat-ism still present in the South. The influx of Hispanics will be countered by continuing disillusionment (especially in immigration-hostile white Texas) of those voters against the Democratic Party. Of course, in truth, neither party really presents the position they want (reduced free trade, reduced immigration), but immigration will seem the more pressing problem to the "common American" of Texas. (This contrasts with, say, Virginia and North Carolina, where free trade is considered the bigger enemy of the "common American".)
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« Reply #34 on: December 22, 2006, 07:19:38 am »
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If I may be of service ...

The bottom line changes I derived were:
AZ +2
CA +1
FL +3
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MI -1
MN -1
MO -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1
Based on the Census Bureau estimate for July 1, 2006:

TX +4
FL +2

Texas gains the 435th seat, with Florida dropping to 438, on slightly decreased growth rate.  Minnesota remained 436th.

430 Arizona (-4, was 434 before)
431 Alabama (0)
432 Pennsylvania (0)
433 New Jersey (+4)
434 California (+1)
435 Texas (+?)

436 Minnesota (0)
437 New York (-1)
438 Florida (+3)
439 Oregon (-5)
440 Washington (-3)
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Jake
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« Reply #35 on: January 24, 2007, 08:35:56 pm »
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Any estimates for 2020 by any chance? Just a rough guess would be interesting.
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muon2
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« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2007, 12:04:04 pm »
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Any estimates for 2020 by any chance? Just a rough guess would be interesting.

In 2005 the Census Bureau released projections for state populations through 2030. Based on those projections for 2020 the EV map would be as follows:


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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #37 on: February 04, 2007, 04:30:09 pm »
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Any estimates for 2020 by any chance? Just a rough guess would be interesting.

In 2005 the Census Bureau released projections for state populations through 2030. Based on those projections for 2020 the EV map would be as follows:




How did you get that?
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muon2
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« Reply #38 on: February 10, 2007, 08:20:47 pm »
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Any estimates for 2020 by any chance? Just a rough guess would be interesting.

In 2005 the Census Bureau released projections for state populations through 2030. Based on those projections for 2020 the EV map would be as follows:




How did you get that?

The Census Bureau projections page was my source for the data (I used table A1.) Then I processed those numbers on a spreadsheet using the standard apportionment method. The map was generated using the Atlas.
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« Reply #39 on: March 02, 2007, 05:00:35 pm »
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Aside from Ohio and New Hampshire, Colorado was the only competitive state to swing to the Dems in 2004 despite Kerry declining nationwide from Gore's level. (Not including states like Minnesota where Nader's vote was particularly high in 2000.) It will be very competitive in 2008, Kerry having lost it by only 4.5%.

Yeah, considering the Democrats took control of the house and the governor's office in 2006. I can certainly vouch for Colorado being a competitive state in 2008.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #40 on: March 02, 2007, 05:57:49 pm »
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Hmm, seeing that Minnesota is projected to lose an EV in 2010, when does it gain one back?
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #41 on: March 02, 2007, 08:34:43 pm »
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Assuming that other states continue to slow faster than Minnesota, Minnesota would gain its lost district back in 2020 as states like New York continue to decline.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #42 on: March 03, 2007, 11:00:50 pm »
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Hmm, seeing that Minnesota is projected to lose an EV in 2010, when does it gain one back?
Different population data.

The map for 2020 is based on census projections, in particular an interim projection made in 2004 based on 2000 data.  It assumes that trends in death rates, fertility rates, migration rates, etc. will continue indefinitely into the future.  So for example, they will take the 2000 population of a state and estimate based on the age distribution of females and the age-based fertility rate how many babies will be born.  Similarly it estimates the number of deaths per age, and so on for migration, both interstate and international.

In 2000, Minnesota was entitled to 7.62 representatives.  The projection data showed Minnesota growing at almost the same rate as the country did over the next 30 years and staying around 7.62 representatives.

The apportionment estimate for 2010 was based on census estimates (the latest is for July 2006), with the annual growth rate for 2000 to 2006, projected forward to 2010.

The 2005 estimated population for Minnesota was 0.9% less than the 2005 projected population for Minnesota.  Put in other terms, the projection had Minnesota growing a 0.51% annually, while the estimate has it growing 0.42% annually.  The difference over 5 years is 48,000 people.

Meanwhile the 2005 estimated population for the USA was 0.3% greater than the 2005 projected population.  This produces an additional decrease in the relative share of the population for Minnesota.  If trends based on the estimates continue, Minnesota will be entitled to around 7.44 representatives in 2010.   7.44/7.62 is 97%, so the relative share decline is small.  But since Minnesota is crossing a rounding threshold it may lose the 8th seat.
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« Reply #43 on: March 15, 2007, 12:16:44 am »
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Nevada is the fastest growing state followed by Arizona. What's funny is that North Dakota is actually losing people. They lost 5,500 people between 2000 and 2005.
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Buddha
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« Reply #44 on: March 16, 2007, 01:54:35 pm »
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If the electoral college favors a Republican win, how much will that be a factor in attempts to abolish it? In other words if it becomes more and more likely that whenever a Democrat wins the popular vote in close elections s/he is unlikely to win the electoral college, will not such results tend to lead to an abolishment of the electoral college?

Of course, the problem is, that the more the electoral college favors the Republicans, it is possible that it also be easier for them to gain control of Congress. It is virtually impossible to change or abolish the electoral college without both parties help.
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Jaggerjack
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« Reply #45 on: April 30, 2007, 09:37:53 am »
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What about GA and NC they? Are they right on the line of gaining one more seat?

If you look, Georgia is getting one, I doubt they are close to second.

North Carolina hopefully isn't that close.  Bad state-doesn't deserve that many electors.

Bad state?

He's a far left liberal crazy who thinks anybody in Southern states is evil. Ignore the evil.

That is not my view in the slightest and you know that.  I don't think the states are "evil" let alone the people.  I didn't even mention the people.

Simply, I don't like the politics, history, or current society of North Carolina.  I believe Georgia has made more strides in entering the mainstream of America, while North Carolina has not.

Why don't you like the history of North Carolina?

BTW Georgia is more consveriative then North Carolina.
Dude, isn't it obvious he doesn't care about how conservative they are?
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