2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/polisci4bimbos/status/1773523114296476093

No idea what to make of that Green Party of DE account or tweet. The account hasn’t been active since 2020 and is full of a bunch of normie anti-Trump content (and even approving retweets of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris). My guess it’s some random person who happened to have access to the social media of the state party, but there were no tweets about any kind of electoral or party organizing from what I could tell.

And then one day they probably took some really powerful drug and rambled about dolphin-human babies. I don’t know.

Also, I thought his defense of taking his donation was incredibly weak, but Cornel West calls everyone “brother” or “sister” including Donald Trump. It’s a rhetorical device he uses as a pastor and doesn’t necessarily imply personal fondness, so I don’t know why that was the part of that statement that got amplified.

Not to get sidetracked, but there actually is a lot of very interesting science about the connection between dolphins and pregnant women. Dolphin's use sonar to communicate and is heavily theorized that they can see a fetus basically like an ultrasound.

The more you know.

[wildviper121]

RFK Jr has 6.7 million followers across Insta, Tiktok, Twitter, FB, Youtube, Threads, and Rumble. His State of the Union got 12.1 million views and 1.7 likes .

He has a following: the notion that he will finish 1-2% is becoming fantasy

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/28/rfk-jr-tik-tok-social-media-young-voters?

Almost everyone I know is voting for him.

Nobody I know is voting for him. I follow him on Twitter and definitely won't.

[Redban]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/03/29/rfk_jr_is_in_it_to_win_it_not_spoil_it_150719.html

RFK Jr. Is In It To Win It, Not Spoil It

“Establishment Democrats tell everyone who will listen that Kennedy and Shanahan are "spoilers" -- that their candidacy inevitably will throw support away from President Joe Biden and help former President Donald Trump.

If so, that's what the party gets for pushing the most entrenched but least enticing Democrat in the game.
…

A recent statement released by RFK siblings Rory Kennedy, Kerry Kennedy, Joseph P. Kennedy II and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and other Kennedys denounced RFK's candidacy as dangerous … My opinion of the late Robert F. Kennedy's son just shot up. Imagine growing up in the kind of family where some of your own careerist sisters and brothers would publicly go after your candidacy because they prefer Biden. And they're proud of it

You know who's probably secretly appalled? Joe Biden.“

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Possible Commission on Presidential Debates Polling Average:

November 2023: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=425286.msg9298917#msg9298917

February 2024:  https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=425286.msg9373971#msg9393971

Methodology: Assumed 5 pollsters total, as was the case in 2016/20. Looked for any pollster they used in 2016 or 2020 that included at least one third party first, using only polls conducted in 2024. Yielded only Fox. For the other four, I went with Harvard-Harris because of their large sample, then Quinnipiac, Forbes, and Suffolk as they seemed to be the next three most reputable pollsters with a recent five way survey. The most inclusive question was chosen for each pollster. The most recent national poll was used from each company.


Fox Trump 43 Biden 38 Kennedy 12 Stein 2 West 2
Harvard-Harris Trump 43 Biden 38 Kennedy 15 Stein 2 West 2
Quinnipiac Trump 39 Biden 38 Kennedy 13 Stein 4 West 3
Forbes/HarrisX Trump 42 Biden 40 Kennedy 14 Stein 2 West 2
Suffolk Trump 40 Biden 38 Kennedy 9 Stein 2 West 2

Trump 41.4 Biden 38.4 Kennedy 12.6 Stein 2.4 West 2.2

Kennedy tumbles notably below the qualifying line of 15%, despite being within a rounding error of it in the earlier editions of this post. Doesn't appear there is a lot for the duopoly to fear at this time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think third party candidates could have a very strong antitrust case against the Commission on Presidential Debates.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think third party candidates could have a very strong antitrust case against the Commission on Presidential Debates.

It's been tried before: http://www.plainsite.org/dockets/2npxbd4tc/district-of-columbia-district-court/johnson-et-al-v-commission-on-presidential-debates-et-al/

Basically, because the commission establishes criteria ahead of time that it holds everyone to and that any candidate could in theory meet, it's legal. Now if say Kennedy was polling at 18% in August and they changed the rules to exclude him, or if Biden was at 13% and they still tried to include him, you'd have a case. But so far they have adhered to their pre-established criteria, including admitting Perot in '92, so there's no issue.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/03/29/rfk_jr_is_in_it_to_win_it_not_spoil_it_150719.html

RFK Jr. Is In It To Win It, Not Spoil It

He's on the ballot in Utah. Right now, even the idea that he could spoil the election is a fantasy. He'll be lucky to be manage to be 30 seconds of trivia during a slow hour of returns.

[The Mikado]

I've said before but I'll say again RFK Jr's first big test and a good one to measure his seriousness is whether he makes the Texas ballot in May. Texas is one of the harder states and its deadline of May 13th is early. Not only does he need 113k signatures, but people who voted in either the Republican or Democratic Primaries are ineligible to sign his petition, meaning that 4 million of the most connected and plugged in voters are ineligible. There's plenty of other people in the Texas electorate, of course, but 4 million people taken out of the signature pool from the beginning is very significant.

[MichaelM24]

According to Richard Winger of Ballot Access News, Randall Terry (who some of us may remember ran back in 2012, getting okay results in some areas of West Virginia and Kentucky) is one of three people running for the Constitution Party's nomination.

The other two are Jim Harvey and Joel Skousen.

I don't know Harvey or Skousen, but Terry might not be a bad candidate for them. Certainly, I doubt he could be worse than Blankenship was, though I doubt he'd be able to do as well as Darrell Castle did back in 2016.

[Redban]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4568015-rfk-jr-campaign-says-it-has-qualified-for-ballot-in-north-carolina/

RFK Jr. has qualified for ballot in North Carolina, campaign says


Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign has added North Carolina to the expanding list of battleground states in which it has qualified for the ballot in November.

The independent candidate’s campaign says it now has enough signatures to list Kennedy as a White House contender through the “We The People” party, gathering 23,000 pledges of support in the purple state [13,757 is required].

[PSOL]

The PSL got on the ballot in South Carolina thanks to the Workers Party SC.

The Libertarian party is worsening its membership numbers and financials by expelling the San Fran chapter of the party. I await the day the Seattle chapter goes.

The Constitution party is having a three-way contested convention between an anti-abortion nut, a classic Cold Warrior who hasn’t let go and is pretending that he’ll be the hero in the next Red Dawn movie, and a no-name.

[Harlow]

The Libertarian party is worsening its membership numbers and financials by expelling the San Fran chapter of the party. I await the day the Seattle chapter goes.

What happened here?

[PSOL]

The Libertarian party is worsening its membership numbers and financials by expelling the San Fran chapter of the party. I await the day the Seattle chapter goes.

What happened here?

The Mises caucus does not like libertarians who form alliances with progressives.

[Harlow]

The Libertarian party is worsening its membership numbers and financials by expelling the San Fran chapter of the party. I await the day the Seattle chapter goes.

What happened here?

The Mises caucus does not like libertarians who form alliances with progressives.

Context? I can't find any news about this from a Google search.

[MarkD]

Is there going to be an Evan-McMullin-type independent candidacy?

[PSOL]

The PSL needs to get serious with this election and try and reach all the communist parties it can get. They need to get the LUP involved again and reach out to the wider left. They know where the communist chapters in the DSA are at, they know that they need to reach out and try to nab a respectable showing with this hot ticket. Like fr reach out and beg for Socialist Alternative’s and Left Voice’s endorsement, at this point it doesn’t matter about the foreign squabbling about Russia and China when Joe has completely sucked throughout this term. Try and repair relations with the FSP, at this point the Roseanne Barr drama is in the past and they can promise to make up for it.

Look, I get that y’all don’t like the 60s Mao impression the RCP does, but they got good ground game among veterans and they can learn a thing or two from them. CPUSA may be rats forever tied to the D-King, but the FRSO and the WWP got a good thing going on with NAAPR and trying to get goods with starting something there may be worth getting into.

Make an offer with the rest of the P&F party that they can’t refuse. Even the Green party with Ajamu Baraka, Margaret Oliver, Co-Op man, and even Howie are worth working with as are many greens statewide across the nation. Left Unity might be the only option the Left can do to assist each other.

Get on your knees and beg, it’s time to do some high level networking

Is there going to be an Evan-McMullin-type independent candidacy?

The Unity party is going to run someone

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The PSL needs to get serious with this election and try and reach all the communist parties it can get. They need to get the LUP involved again and reach out to the wider left. They know where the communist chapters in the DSA are at, they know that they need to reach out and try to nab a respectable showing with this hot ticket. Like fr reach out and beg for Socialist Alternative’s and Left Voice’s endorsement, at this point it doesn’t matter about the foreign squabbling about Russia and China when Joe has completely sucked throughout this term. Try and repair relations with the FSP, at this point the Roseanne Barr drama is in the past and they can promise to make up for it.

Look, I get that y’all don’t like the 60s Mao impression the RCP does, but they got good ground game among veterans and they can learn a thing or two from them. CPUSA may be rats forever tied to the D-King, but the FRSO and the WWP got a good thing going on with NAAPR and trying to get goods with starting something there may be worth getting into.

Make an offer with the rest of the P&F party that they can’t refuse. Even the Green party with Ajamu Baraka, Margaret Oliver, Co-Op man, and even Howie are worth working with as are many greens statewide across the nation. Left Unity might be the only option the Left can do to assist each other.

Get on your knees and beg, it’s time to do some high level networking

Is there going to be an Evan-McMullin-type independent candidacy?

The Unity party is going to run someone

Leftists, especially far-leftists, working together is about as likely as Trump announcing Biden as his running mate.

There's a joke I've heard before that I tell whenever this comes up: put 3 socialists in a room for an hour and they'll come out with 4 political parties.

[PSOL]

Bob Avakian got his start from campaigning for the SWP-turned-green affiliated candidate under the proto-P&F banner and went on to help make the New Left which included the Black power lineage found in the likes of Kevin Rashid Johnson. The PSL and SAlt come from the same trot tree. Even SPUSA, of which should also be consulted in this matter, helped Stan for the Cubans and Viets.

It’s all about humility and actually taking the time to talk to one another and notice the similarities. Even if they are not interested in endorsing your prez candidate. Using this opportunity to make alliances nationwide for revolutionary activity and connect with the masses should be commonplace. The PSL isn’t some club in D.C. and the Mision District anymore, there’s no excuse for not reaching out to old comrades and making new ones.

If the Spartacists, TNF’s party, can put aside their differences and endorse you maybe you can see the good in fine tuning your campaign and getting ready to unite and partner up with the cream of the crop. The Bolsheviks brought together a whole host of organizations under one party and could not succeed in the revolution without the help of other socialist and anarchist organizations.

[Compuzled_One]

According to Richard Winger of Ballot Access News, Randall Terry (who some of us may remember ran back in 2012, getting okay results in some areas of West Virginia and Kentucky) is one of three people running for the Constitution Party's nomination.

The other two are Jim Harvey and Joel Skousen.

I don't know Harvey or Skousen, but Terry might not be a bad candidate for them. Certainly, I doubt he could be worse than Blankenship was, though I doubt he'd be able to do as well as Darrell Castle did back in 2016.

He wasn't in West Virginia and Kentucky, he got his best win in Oklahoma.

[MichaelM24]

According to Richard Winger of Ballot Access News, Randall Terry (who some of us may remember ran back in 2012, getting okay results in some areas of West Virginia and Kentucky) is one of three people running for the Constitution Party's nomination.

The other two are Jim Harvey and Joel Skousen.

I don't know Harvey or Skousen, but Terry might not be a bad candidate for them. Certainly, I doubt he could be worse than Blankenship was, though I doubt he'd be able to do as well as Darrell Castle did back in 2016.

He wasn't in West Virginia and Kentucky, he got his best win in Oklahoma.

I was talking about the general election (where he was on the ballot in Nebraska, West Virginia, and Kentucky), not the Democratic primary.

[Compuzled_One]

According to Richard Winger of Ballot Access News, Randall Terry (who some of us may remember ran back in 2012, getting okay results in some areas of West Virginia and Kentucky) is one of three people running for the Constitution Party's nomination.

The other two are Jim Harvey and Joel Skousen.

I don't know Harvey or Skousen, but Terry might not be a bad candidate for them. Certainly, I doubt he could be worse than Blankenship was, though I doubt he'd be able to do as well as Darrell Castle did back in 2016.

He wasn't in West Virginia and Kentucky, he got his best win in Oklahoma.

I was talking about the general election (where he was on the ballot in Nebraska, West Virginia, and Kentucky), not the Democratic primary.

Whoops, didn't know. Interesting.

[Beet]

PSL should just get behind the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein. She's the most prominent far leftist in the race by a long shot. And she doesnt need to sell her VP slot to a Silicon Valley socialite to get on the ballot in 20 states!

Stein has challenged RFK Jr. to a debate. He's too chicken. Bak bak!

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1775228765813014872

[Redban]

https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/rfk-polling-black-voters-key-groups-2024

RFK Jr.’s Popularity Among Black Voters Ticks Up Post-VP Pick


"Robert F Kennedy Jr took a big step forward in his independent presidential campaign for 2024, introducing Silicon Valley entrepeneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate ... the share of Black voters with a favorable view of Kennedy increased from 38% to 51% in the surveys conducted before and after he announced Shanahan as his VP pick on March 26. The share of Black voters with unfavorable views of him ticked fown from 31% to 24%."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/rfk-polling-black-voters-key-groups-2024

RFK Jr.’s Popularity Among Black Voters Ticks Up Post-VP Pick


"Robert F Kennedy Jr took a big step forward in his independent presidential campaign for 2024, introducing Silicon Valley entrepeneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate ... the share of Black voters with a favorable view of Kennedy increased from 38% to 51% in the surveys conducted before and after he announced Shanahan as his VP pick on March 26. The share of Black voters with unfavorable views of him ticked fown from 31% to 24%."

Yeah he's not even in ballot in MI, PA and WI yet, I am blk and there are blk red avatars we aren't enthusiastic over RFk that's trying to split votes from Biden

[Redban]

https://www.kennedy24.com/west-des-moines-assembly

Kennedy is trying to make ballot access in Iowa in one day. If he gets 500 people to attend an assembly and then sign a form attesting that they were there, then he makes the ballot