another 1996 scenario

[WalterMitty]

republicans nominate well respected moderate former missouri senator john danforth.  although a moderate, the 60 year old danforth is also an ordained minister, which makes him acceptable to the religious right.

danforth selects that straight talking wyoming senator, alan simpson as his running mate.

the texas maverick, ross perot opts out of the race after the republicans nominate the danforth/simpson ticket.  calling them 'quality public servants', perot endorses the ticket.

the democrats of course renominate the clinton/gore ticket.

jesse jackson, never a fan of a clinton or his 'third way' politics, opts to run as a third party candidate.  he selects former atlanta mayor, maynard jackson as his running mate.

how would this race shape up?

clinton/gore (d)
danforth/simpson (r)
jackson/jackson (rainbow coalition)

[dazzleman]

With Jackson as a third party candidate syphoning off votes from Clinton, Danforth may have won the election.

Still, it's not a sure thing.  It may not even be likely.  I'm not sure what percentage of black voters in particular would have abandoned Clinton in order to vote for a sure loser.  And let's face it -- Jackson doesn't have a great deal of appeal beyond the black community.

Clinton was and is popular with blacks that he would have had a very good chance, better than many Democrats, to hold onto a sufficient percentage of the black vote to still carry the states where it may have been a deciding factor.  Clinton would have been far less vulnerable to a Jackson run than, say, a Michael Dukakis, who inspired no real loyalty or excitement among black voters.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

These tickets produce one of the most exciting and closest races in history.

Perot's endorsement helps Danforth and Simpson with independents.

Simpson's presence on the ticket helps solidify the west, with the exception of the west coast, for Danforth.

Simpson also helps Danforth in the south, this combined with the fact Jackson and Jackson draw significant southern strength, costs Clinton dearly in the south, costing him possible wins in Louisiana and Florida, and leaving Clinton with only Arkansas and Tennessee. 

The prominent all black ticket of Jackson and Jackson siphons off significant numbers of black votes from Clinton and Gore in state after state, leaving Clinton with very narrow wins in a number of states, New Hampshire, New Jersey, West Virginia, Tennessee, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Nevada, Oregon.

Most significantly, the loss of huge numbers of black votes to Jackson cost Clinton the curcial state of Pennsylvania, which goes to Danforth by a narrow margin.  Voting in black and poor precincts is reported to be in record numbers.

It should be pointed out that not only do Jackson and Jackson make historic inroads into the black vote, but as well capture a fair percentage of votes in poor and minority areas.

To the astonishment of all, for the first time in history, DC casts it's 3 electoral votes for someone other than the Democrat, opting instead, by a narrow margin, for the all black ticket.  DC prevents the election from being thrown into the House.

The Clinton/Gore administration goes down after 1 term, the victims of a unique combination of voter loyalties.

President Danforth and Vice President Simpson will provide steady and solid leadership for the nation domestically, and internationally on the world stage.   

Danforth/Simpson                269 EV  45% PV
Clinton/Gore                         266 EV  44% PV
Jackson/Jackson                       3 EV  11% PV 

[ATFFL]

It still goes to the house.  You need 270 to avoid it.

[Secretary Polnut]

Not a chance Clinton loses this.

The Jackson presence weakens Clinton in some states - but not by a big enough margin to cost him any major states.

It is much closer than against Dole but Clinton and Gore are still able to carry their home states - plus influence LA.

The only states that flip are MO, AZ, KY and NH.



This is, of course presuming that Jackson can get on the ballot in every state.

Clinton - 348 - 48.5%
Danforth - 190 - 47.1%
Jackson - 2.1%

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

It still goes to the house.  You need 270 to avoid it.

Of course.  How could I forget that?

In that case, Danforth wins Nevada, and the election.

America is therefore saved, at least, 4 years of the Clinton sleaze.

[Secretary Polnut]

It still goes to the house.  You need 270 to avoid it.

Of course.  How could I forget that?

In that case, Danforth wins Nevada, and the election.

America is therefore saved, at least, 4 years of the Clinton sleaze.

Ah... in hindsight, I'd love some of that sleaze back. I'd take adulterous and smart over well... Bush.

[True Democrat]

309-229 Clinton

[DownWithTheLeft]

It still goes to the house.  You need 270 to avoid it.

Of course.  How could I forget that?

In that case, Danforth wins Nevada, and the election.

America is therefore saved, at least, 4 years of the Clinton sleaze.

Ah... in hindsight, I'd love some of that sleaze back. I'd take adulterous and smart over well... Bush.

I'll take great president over sleaze anyday!!!

[Secretary Polnut]

It still goes to the house.  You need 270 to avoid it.

Of course.  How could I forget that?

In that case, Danforth wins Nevada, and the election.

America is therefore saved, at least, 4 years of the Clinton sleaze.

Ah... in hindsight, I'd love some of that sleaze back. I'd take adulterous and smart over well... Bush.

I'll take great president over sleaze anyday!!!

That's ok I thought you were talking about Bush.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Clinton would have won. It would have been closer than in real life, but I can't see Jackson getting more than 5 or 6% of the vote. I think you're underestimating the extent to which African-Americans love Bill Clinton, even now. For many, he's their favorite living white person.  Jesse Jackson would have been very foolish or egoistic to think that he could pull off something like this. Also, the desertion of the black left and a few white liberals to Jackson would allow Clinton to move (very) slightly to the center and attract more moderate white voters, who in real life either voted for Perot or stayed home.

[Kevin]

Being a Midwesterner would have helped Danforth in IL along with MI In which Jackson draws votes away from heavly Black and Democratic Detriot, Simpson could possibly help Danforth carry OR also.