Dem problems in Michigan

[Gustaf]

Well, other people avoid being wrong by not making actual *predictions* far in advance of the election.

It's not my fault Kilgore blew the election. If I had waited until the day before to make a "prediction" than obviously I would have known Kaine would win. My overall predictive record still far surpasses any of the democrats on the site. Of competitive races that I was highly sure about, and thus bet on, I'm right about 90% of the time at 6 months out. Close to the election, I don't even bother. It's not a real prediction.

Let's see...

Kilgore would win - wrong
Bill Nelson was in trouble - wrong
DeVos would win - wrong
Blagojevich would lose - wrong
Kennedy was strong - wrong

Where are the correct predictions?  I can't seem to find any.

That's because you're ignoring his prediction of Bush carrying Washington in 2004! I remember his concluding line from that thread..."this will be a fun thread to dig up when Bush wins Washington".

[Nym90]

Another Auh20 classic was his prediction map for 2004 which had Bush winning Vermont. He ended up changing it as I recall eventually, but as BRTD I think once pointed out, Kerry won Vermont by more than Bush won Kentucky, proving Auh20 is a bigger hack than Bandit.

In any event, thanks for bumping this one. Devos was a horrid candidate; it's not that Granholm couldn't have lost if the GOP had put someone good up (Candice Miller would've had a shot, but given the GOP environment this year still likely would've lost by 3-4 points), but Granholm's deficit in the polls early was due to her getting a late start to her campaign more than anything.

Also, Devos did greatly help the Michigan economy with his 40 million in expenditure on the campaign.

[RBH]

Joe Schwarz could have had a decent shot.

He would have gotten the nomination if the GOP primary was divided as follows.

Schwarz - 26%
Conservative - 25%
Conservative - 20%
Conservative - 19%
Conservative - 10%

[MaC]

Another Auh20 classic was his prediction map for 2004 which had Bush winning Vermont. He ended up changing it as I recall eventually, but as BRTD I think once pointed out, Kerry won Vermont by more than Bush won Kentucky, proving Auh20 is a bigger hack than Bandit.

But Nym, Bush didn't win Kentucky.  It was stolen!

[Moooooo]

Granholm = doneski.

ahahahahahaha. I wish I had found this earlier.

Has any candidate Goldie has declared "doneski" ever lost?

No.

[RBH]

Another Auh20 classic was his prediction map for 2004 which had Bush winning Vermont. He ended up changing it as I recall eventually, but as BRTD I think once pointed out, Kerry won Vermont by more than Bush won Kentucky, proving Auh20 is a bigger hack than Bandit.

But Nym, Bush didn't win Kentucky.  It was stolen!

That $200K investment in giving beer to Kentucky voters for voting Bush is really paying off.