Final Last Minute IA Predictions
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Author Topic: Final Last Minute IA Predictions  (Read 8824 times)
MAS117
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« on: January 19, 2004, 03:57:30 PM »
It's almost 4pm eastern time and its the big IA caucus day. After watching the News and Internet over the last week who do you think will come out on top tonight? Last minute predictions everyone... The Des Moines reigster had the polls at yesterday... Kerry 26%, Edwards 23%, Dean 20%, Gephardt 18%.... Hopefully after Gephardt loses he will drop out this week...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2004, 04:03:09 PM »
EDWARDS wins narrowly.
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MAS117
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2004, 04:10:09 PM »
Edwards and Kerry are surging... but the expectations on them might be atittle high.. well see in a few hours...
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Gustaf
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2004, 04:19:09 PM »
When are the first results likely to be presented, and when will  we know who's the winner? And, please, tell me what time it is in the appropriate time zone, so I can calculate what the time will be in Sweden. I am trying to see if I can be up and follow it...
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MAS117
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2004, 04:20:08 PM »
Coverage starts at 7pm on most channels in Eastern Standard Time.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2004, 04:20:44 PM »
Quote from: MAS117 on January 19, 2004, 04:20:08 PM
Coverage starts at 7pm on most channels in Eastern Standard Time.

What is the Eastern Standard Time right now?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2004, 04:21:13 PM »
4:21
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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2004, 04:25:29 PM »

Ah, thanks to both of you. Smiley That means that coverage starts at 1 am Swedish time...when are the results likely to come in? I probably will not have the time to be around for the whole thing.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2004, 04:26:23 PM »
Quote from: Gustaf on January 19, 2004, 04:25:29 PM

Ah, thanks to both of you. Smiley That means that coverage starts at 1 am Swedish time...when are the results likely to come in? I probably will not have the time to be around for the whole thing.
I heard the results will come in 9-11 PM.
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MAS117
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« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2004, 04:27:30 PM »
yeah around 9pm eastern time to like 11
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2004, 04:30:12 PM »
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on January 19, 2004, 04:26:23 PM
Quote from: Gustaf on January 19, 2004, 04:25:29 PM

Ah, thanks to both of you. Smiley That means that coverage starts at 1 am Swedish time...when are the results likely to come in? I probably will not have the time to be around for the whole thing.
I heard the results will come in 9-11 PM.

OK, so that would be 3-5 am Swedish time...I have to get off to watch the West Wing now, but I will think about this...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2004, 04:41:32 PM »
They have the West Wing in Sweden?  Cool.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2004, 05:02:28 PM »
Yuck, I don't like the West Wing.  Such a liberal show...

I really do believe Dean can pull off a win in Iowa, and I don't say that as a Republican hoping he gets the nomination.  That said, if he *doesn't* win the nomination, I think it'll actually help him elsewhere.  Hear me out.

Let's say someone like Kerry or Edwards or even Gephardt wins.  Dean is still in the race no matter what b/c he's got a GREAT national organization.  A Gephardt win means he doesn't drop out.  A Kerry win means he gets a boost in N.H.  An Edwards win means he gets a boost in South Carolina.  A Dean win means at least one (maybe two) of these guys must drop out.

So.  If someone OTHER than Dean wins Iowa, that means there'll be more "centrist" Dems in the race to continue splitting the centrist vote.  All the while, Dean remains the only (frontrunner) liberal - his vote won't split while the other's votes do.  The combined candidacies of Kerry, Clark, Edwards, Gephardt and Lieberman canNOT beat Dean.  You can only beat Dean win ONE candidate.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2004, 05:04:46 PM »
Kerry:        29%
Edwards:  26%
Dean:        20%
Gephardt:  20%
Other:         5%
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2004, 05:04:56 PM »
I disagree, a Dean loss hurts Dean bigtime because he then might lose in NH.  If he wins IA, he will win NH big.
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2004, 05:07:34 PM »
I'd say:

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Gephardt

I think that Kerry and Edwards will be quite close, perhaps with a 1 percent margin. Edwards may even grab 2nd.

I think that no matter what place Gephardt gets he's done. Even if he won it would be a repeat of 1988.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2004, 05:23:42 PM »
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on January 19, 2004, 04:41:32 PM
They have the West Wing in Sweden?  Cool.

We have everything in Sweden, lol... Smiley

We get almost everything from American tv, but lagging a season or two.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2004, 05:24:36 PM »
Do you get Seinfeld?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2004, 05:30:10 PM »

Yes, but on bad airtimes, so I've only managed to catch it a few times.
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MAS117
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2004, 05:32:45 PM »
GWBFAN, dont diss on the west wing...its one of my favorite shows...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2004, 05:35:38 PM »
Quote from: MAS117 on January 19, 2004, 05:32:45 PM
GWBFAN, dont diss on the west wing...its one of my favorite shows...
Register at the fantasy elections!  Please!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #21 on: January 19, 2004, 05:37:43 PM »
OK, help me out here guys. I plan to make a brief middle of the night appearance on the board...when should that be, to optimize results?
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Huckleberry Finn
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« Reply #22 on: January 19, 2004, 06:06:03 PM »
Quote from: Miamiu1027 on January 19, 2004, 04:41:32 PM
They have the West Wing in Sweden?  Cool.
[/quote

We have West Wing in Finnish television too. Over the half our tv-series are from USA (At least in commercial channels) Finnish use to say that Finland is most Americans country in Europe. I have never understood why? If you take a look our social democrat society.... In the other hand American popular culture has always been very dominant here.
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Huckleberry Finn
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« Reply #23 on: January 19, 2004, 06:26:10 PM »
I still believe that Dean will win!
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MAS117
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: January 19, 2004, 06:37:36 PM »
lets hope your wrong
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