Ethiopia invades Somalia

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9f5deb00-1854-11db-99a6-0000779e2340.html

Eh, someone has to deal with those Islamists. Better to put an end to this now athan let it spread more instability through the region. Maybe they can even get the country a working government.

[MaC]

Maybe they can even get the country a working government.

You say that like it's a good thing

[WMS]

I've been following this, and at the moment it would be hard for Ethiopia to push past Baidoa - logistics concerns - or for the ICU to take it - fortification concerns. It appears to currently be a stalemate.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

Areas known to be under control of the ICU are Mogadishu, Giohar, Beledweyne, and now Buurhakaba. From that and other sources...the ICU appears to control Shabeellaha Dhexe, Shabeellaha, and Hiraan Regions, more or less, and to be making a bid for Bay and Bakool Regions. I have no idea who is in control of Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions, but by logic of access routes the Ethiopians-Transitional Government have to control Gedo Region (and the core of Bay Region) and likely control Bakool Region. I also have no idea who controls Galguduud and Mudug Regions, Puntland controls Bari Region and might control Nugaal Region, and Somaliland controls Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions (the last two are disputed with Puntland to some extent).

OK BRTD, this should help you track how well everyone is doing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So we end up with a 3-way split. Ethopia and the Transititional Government control one part, the Islamists control another, and Somaliland is the rest.

If Ethiopia were to get Western support and air strikes on their side they could probably dislodge the Islamists.

[Flying Dog]

Has that region ever been stable?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has that region ever been stable?

Yes, even though that period involved both Ethiopia and Somalia both being under two rival murderous regimes.

[WMS]

So we end up with a 3-way split. Ethopia and the Transititional Government control one part, the Islamists control another, and Somaliland is the rest.

If Ethiopia were to get Western support and air strikes on their side they could probably dislodge the Islamists.

At least 3-ways - I'm not sure who controls 4-5 Regions of Somalia - it might be the usual Somalian pastiche of random warlords. And there's Puntland as well. So we have 4 big factions and an unknown number of smaller factions.

Ethiopia already gets military support from the U.S., I think...and I know we're involved up in Somaliland as part of our Task Force we have operating in the Red Sea. I did mention before that I've read the U.S. might get more directly involved if the ICU makes a move into the -lands, right?

[J. J.]

Has that region ever been stable?

Yes, even though that period involved both Ethiopia and Somalia both being under two rival murderous regimes.

Not really.  An invasion by Ethiopians is mentioned in the Koran.

[minionofmidas]

So we end up with a 3-way split. Ethopia and the Transititional Government control one part, the Islamists control another, and Somaliland is the rest.

If Ethiopia were to get Western support and air strikes on their side they could probably dislodge the Islamists.

At least 3-ways - I'm not sure who controls 4-5 Regions of Somalia - it might be the usual Somalian pastiche of random warlords. And there's Puntland as well. So we have 4 big factions and an unknown number of smaller factions.

Indeed, I am fairly sure that until recently the "transitional" "government" controlled only the immediate vicinity of Baidoa and the road from there to Ethiopia, so if these areas are now Ethiopian-held, they now control, eh, well, zilch or nigh-on zilch.

Of course, anyone aware of Somali and Ethiopian recent history knows that no other news (well, except perhaps a Somali invasion of Ethiopia) could have possibly been worse.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So we end up with a 3-way split. Ethopia and the Transititional Government control one part, the Islamists control another, and Somaliland is the rest.

If Ethiopia were to get Western support and air strikes on their side they could probably dislodge the Islamists.

At least 3-ways - I'm not sure who controls 4-5 Regions of Somalia - it might be the usual Somalian pastiche of random warlords. And there's Puntland as well. So we have 4 big factions and an unknown number of smaller factions.

Indeed, I am fairly sure that until recently the "transitional" "government" controlled only the immediate vicinity of Baidoa and the road from there to Ethiopia, so if these areas are now Ethiopian-held, they now control, eh, well, zilch or nigh-on zilch.

Of course, anyone aware of Somali and Ethiopian recent history knows that no other news (well, except perhaps a Somali invasion of Ethiopia) could have possibly been worse.

The Islamists taking over the whole country certainly would be. After all, they killed peopel for watching the World Cup and have said they'll execute anyone who misses daily prayers.

[AuH2O]

The best strategy is probably for Ethiopia to strength the military forces under the control of the provisional government, to the extent they are capable of doing that. Probably would need help. But really, it's not going to be solved anytime soon.

[minionofmidas]

So we end up with a 3-way split. Ethopia and the Transititional Government control one part, the Islamists control another, and Somaliland is the rest.

If Ethiopia were to get Western support and air strikes on their side they could probably dislodge the Islamists.

At least 3-ways - I'm not sure who controls 4-5 Regions of Somalia - it might be the usual Somalian pastiche of random warlords. And there's Puntland as well. So we have 4 big factions and an unknown number of smaller factions.

Indeed, I am fairly sure that until recently the "transitional" "government" controlled only the immediate vicinity of Baidoa and the road from there to Ethiopia, so if these areas are now Ethiopian-held, they now control, eh, well, zilch or nigh-on zilch.

Of course, anyone aware of Somali and Ethiopian recent history knows that no other news (well, except perhaps a Somali invasion of Ethiopia) could have possibly been worse.

The Islamists taking over the whole country certainly would be. After all, they killed peopel for watching the World Cup and have said they'll execute anyone who misses daily prayers.

Well, "the Islamists taking over the whole country" sounds like a not unlikely outcome of their being warred on by hated Ethiopia.

[ilikeverin]

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

*cough*

[John Dibble]

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

*cough*

Where can you see somalilions? Only in Kenya Somaliland!

[Speed of Sound]

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

*cough*

[Colin]

So we end up with a 3-way split. Ethopia and the Transititional Government control one part, the Islamists control another, and Somaliland is the rest.

If Ethiopia were to get Western support and air strikes on their side they could probably dislodge the Islamists.

At least 3-ways - I'm not sure who controls 4-5 Regions of Somalia - it might be the usual Somalian pastiche of random warlords. And there's Puntland as well. So we have 4 big factions and an unknown number of smaller factions.

Indeed, I am fairly sure that until recently the "transitional" "government" controlled only the immediate vicinity of Baidoa and the road from there to Ethiopia, so if these areas are now Ethiopian-held, they now control, eh, well, zilch or nigh-on zilch.

Of course, anyone aware of Somali and Ethiopian recent history knows that no other news (well, except perhaps a Somali invasion of Ethiopia) could have possibly been worse.

The Islamists taking over the whole country certainly would be. After all, they killed peopel for watching the World Cup and have said they'll execute anyone who misses daily prayers.

Well, "the Islamists taking over the whole country" sounds like a not unlikely outcome of their being warred on by hated Ethiopia.

Even then its very unlikely. They could push away the opposition from the Southern Warlords but once they try to turn their attack against Puntland or Somaliland they would be in trouble especially since those are more organized governments and groups who are well experienced, Somaliland and Puntland fought a war with each other in the 90's. If the war does turn to the North as well American aid and recognition could begin to flow into Somaliland making that more powerful and stable. I really don't know why we don't recognize Somaliland and recognize them, for now, as the most legitamate authority in Somalia.

[minionofmidas]

Eritrea is not in the least unimportant to Somalia, silly Ike.

[WMS]

So we end up with a 3-way split. Ethopia and the Transititional Government control one part, the Islamists control another, and Somaliland is the rest.

If Ethiopia were to get Western support and air strikes on their side they could probably dislodge the Islamists.

At least 3-ways - I'm not sure who controls 4-5 Regions of Somalia - it might be the usual Somalian pastiche of random warlords. And there's Puntland as well. So we have 4 big factions and an unknown number of smaller factions.

Indeed, I am fairly sure that until recently the "transitional" "government" controlled only the immediate vicinity of Baidoa and the road from there to Ethiopia, so if these areas are now Ethiopian-held, they now control, eh, well, zilch or nigh-on zilch.

Of course, anyone aware of Somali and Ethiopian recent history knows that no other news (well, except perhaps a Somali invasion of Ethiopia) could have possibly been worse.

The Islamists taking over the whole country certainly would be. After all, they killed peopel for watching the World Cup and have said they'll execute anyone who misses daily prayers.

Well, "the Islamists taking over the whole country" sounds like a not unlikely outcome of their being warred on by hated Ethiopia.

Even then its very unlikely. They could push away the opposition from the Southern Warlords but once they try to turn their attack against Puntland or Somaliland they would be in trouble especially since those are more organized governments and groups who are well experienced, Somaliland and Puntland fought a war with each other in the 90's. If the war does turn to the North as well American aid and recognition could begin to flow into Somaliland making that more powerful and stable. I really don't know why we don't recognize Somaliland and recognize them, for now, as the most legitamate authority in Somalia.

Good answer, Colin. Especially that last sentence there. But let us remember that Somaliland wants independence, and doesn't want to govern the rest of Somalia (ironically enough, they probably have by far the most internal legitimacy for that). I will note that the jihadists staged a coup in Puntland back in 2001 which was reversed with quiet U.S. involvement, so keep that in mind. One of the ironies of this whole situation is that an ICU victory could very well result in an internationally-recognized Somaliland, backed by the U.S. and the U.K., both of which have supported the government there.

If the ICU tries to tangle with Somaliland, they are in for quite a fight...and gee, make a guess which side I back.

*UPDATED*

I've been following this, and at the moment it would be hard for Ethiopia to push past Baidoa - logistics concerns - or for the ICU to take it - fortification concerns. It appears to currently be a stalemate.
*Yes, fighting has resumed between the ICU and the TFG. The report specifically does not say with Ethiopian forces.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

Areas known to be under control of the ICU are Mogadishu, Giohar, Beledweyne, and now Buurhakaba. From that and other sources...the ICU appears to control Shabeellaha Dhexe, Shabeellaha, and Hiraan Regions, more or less, and to be making a bid for Bay and Bakool Regions.* I have no idea who is in control of Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions, but by logic of access routes the Ethiopians-Transitional Government have to control Gedo Region (and the core of Bay Region) and likely control Bakool Region*. I also have no idea who controls Galguduud Region, Puntland controls Bari and Nugaal Regions, and from Wiki appears to control the north and west of Mudug Region (which leaves the question of who controls the rest of Mudug wide open) and Somaliland controls Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions (the last two are disputed with Puntland to some extent).

*From various sources the Ethiopians have moved into Bakool Region, specifically the town of Wajid, after seizing the airport there *from local authorities*. This is logical based on the geography of the region. Just who the local authorities were I don't know...but it would be interesting to find out.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

*cough*

I laughed at this one, ILV. I even swiped it and put it in my own Photobucket account.

[Michael Z]

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

*cough*

You, sir, are a genius.

[minionofmidas]

From the Beeb---

Somali president agrees to talks 
 
Islamist militia have taken control of much of southern Somalia
Somalia's interim government has agreed to hold talks with the Islamic courts that control the capital.
A government official said they would hold talks early in August in Khartoum without preconditions, after President Abdullahi Yusuf met a UN envoy.

Talks to try and avert conflict between the two sides broke down last week.

The Union of Islamic Courts has vowed to expel Ethiopian troops who are deployed in Baidoa to assist the weak transitional Somali government.

UN envoy Francois Fall is expected to head to Mogadishu from Baidoa to meet leaders of the UIC.

"We will go to Khartoum without any preconditions," the president's chief of staff, Abdirizak Adam, was quoted by reporters as saying.

The talks were due to begin at the weekend, but the government refused to attend and the UIC delegates walked out in protest at the presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia.

On Monday, thousands of Somalis staged a rally in Mogadishu calling on Ethiopian troops to leave.

The demonstrators burnt Ethiopian flags at a protest in the capital.

As well as the government's Baidoa base, Ethiopian troops have also been seen in another central town, Wajid.

Ethiopia and the transitional government have refused to confirm Ethiopian troops are on Somali soil.

Islamic leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed told the rally that forces loyal to the Islamic courts were ready and would be allowed to fight Ethiopians when appropriate.

"We are talking to the international community to avoid serious bloodshed and we are urging the Ethiopians to withdraw from Somalia. Patience has its own limitations," AFP news agency quoted him as telling the crowd.

Talks held in Sudan between the UIC and the transitional government - which correspondents say has little authority outside Baidoa - have been suspended.

Ethiopia, a long-term ally of President Abdullahi Yusuf, has warned the Islamic courts not to make any further military advance on Baidoa.

In recent weeks the Islamic courts have wrested control of much of southern Somalia from many of the warlords who divided up the country into rival fiefdoms following the overthrow of Siad Barre in 1991.

They appear to be making considerable progress in imposing law and order in the capital.

[WMS]

In recent weeks the Islamic courts have wrested control of much of southern Somalia from many of the warlords who divided up the country into rival fiefdoms following the overthrow of Siad Barre in 1991.

They couldn't, like, give some details here, could they? It would be nice to know just who controls what. *grumble*

[minionofmidas]

http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=54861&SelectRegion=Horn_of_Africa
 
"NAIROBI, 28 Jul 2006 (IRIN) - Tension rose in the southern Somali town of Baidao on Friday after an unidentified gunman killed a federal government minister as he left a mosque after prayers.

An eye-witness said Abdalla Deerow Isaq, the Constitution and Federalism Minister in the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), was shot at point-blank rage.

"We came out of the mosque and then we heard a gunshot and next thing Deerow was on the ground," said a businessman who was at the mosque. "He was rushed to hospital but he was already dead," he added.

The situation in Baidao, the temporary seat of the government, "is very confusing [and] this has caused a great deal of uncertainty", a member of the transitional parliament said from the town which is 240 km northwest of the capital Mogadishu, where the TFG is based.

"All MPs [members of parliament] are hunkering down in their homes," he added. "No one feels safe until we find out what is behind this." Most of the 275-member assembly are in Baidoa.

Deerow served as the speaker of the former Transitional National Assembly in the previous interim government set up in Arta, Djibouti, in 2000.

The killing came a day after 18 members of the TFG cabinet resigned and a motion of no-confidence in the government was tabled in Parliament. The ministers said they resigned because the government had failed to spearhead reconciliation with the Union of Islamic Courts, which controls Mogadishu.

It was unclear if the debate on the no-confidence motion, which is due to be held on Saturday, would go ahead after the slaying of the minister.

Somalia has had no functional central authority for the past 14 years, following the collapse in 1991 of the government of President Muhammad Siyad Barre. The TFG, which was set up in Kenya in October 2004, has so far failed to exert effective control over the whole country."

[WMS]

*UPDATED AGAIN*

*UPDATED*

I've been following this, and at the moment it would be hard for Ethiopia to push past Baidoa - logistics concerns - or for the ICU to take it - fortification concerns. It appears to currently be a stalemate.
*Yes, fighting has resumed between the ICU and the TFG. The report specifically does not say with Ethiopian forces.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

Areas known to be under control of the ICU are Mogadishu, Giohar, Beledweyne, and now Buurhakaba. From that and other sources...the ICU appears to control Shabeellaha Dhexe, Shabeellaha, and Hiraan Regions, more or less, and to be making a bid for Bay and Bakool Regions.* I have no idea who is in control of Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions, but by logic of access routes the Ethiopians-Transitional Government have to control Gedo Region (and the core of Bay Region) and likely control Bakool Region*. I also have no idea who controls Galguduud Region, Puntland controls Bari and Nugaal Regions, and from Wiki appears to control the north and west of Mudug Region (which leaves the question of who controls the rest of Mudug wide open) and Somaliland controls Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions (the last two are disputed with Puntland to some extent).

*From various sources the Ethiopians have moved into Bakool Region, specifically the town of Wajid, after seizing the airport there *from local authorities*. This is logical based on the geography of the region. Just who the local authorities were I don't know...but it would be interesting to find out.

- The TFG's President has issued a one-week deadline for all residents of Baidoa to hand in their guns or else the goverment will take them by force. Pardon me while I have a WTF moment...
- The ICU has announced plans to extend their control to the Mudug Region (my source inverted the g and the d ) to 'eradicate piracy in Haradere' (and no, I can't find that place on the map either but it was the birthplace of an ex-President of Somalia...in the Obbia district, which I also can't find on the map, but I will make a phonentic guess and say it's Hobyo on the map). The ICU also says they want to establish a shariah court there. Commentary in a sec...
- The ICU has won the support of the Hawiye Clan (remember them from Black Hawk Down? Yep, Aidid's people), who turned over 50 trucks with machineguns in Adaado Township in the Galguduud Region. The ICU has also established a shariah court there. So...the ICU is moving north.

Hmm, I'll just list the regions:
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, although I think Somaliland currently controls them
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control
Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - No idea, still (and I would really like to know)

Oh, Lewis, Stratfor did an analysis based on the events of your article and they see it as pointing toward another Ethiopian-Eritrean war, complete with Somalian proxies.

[minionofmidas]

Ethiopia has accused, like, about 5 neighboring countries of sponsoring the ICU ... and Eritrea is the only country on that list not heavily Muslim.

[WMS]

Ethiopia has accused, like, about 5 neighboring countries of sponsoring the ICU ... and Eritrea is the only country on that list not heavily Muslim.

But Eritrea is the best candidate...them and Yemen. Makes tons and tons of geopolitical sense...