Ethiopia invades Somalia

[WMS]

*edit*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things. New Map on Wiki! Here. Good depiction of Regional control by the factions.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Jubbada Dhexe - Contested between the Juba Valley Alliance and the ICU (see the Wiki Map). The BBC Map however, says the ICU controls all of it (yet not the Mudug portion along the coast...hmm). Not sure...
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

Well, that was quick. The ICU swooped in and captured Kismaayo/Chisimayu on, let's see, ah, yes, shortly after my last post on Sept. 22. Then they fired on anti-ICU demonstrators there. Lovely. There have been more demonstrators, and more firings on them, since then.

This appears to have triggered the movement of "several hundred" Ethiopian troops to Baidoa to defend the TFG (yeah, yeah, Ethiopia officially denied it but seriously now...), which the ICU called a declaration of war. Now, it is very likely that Ethiopia will decide to defend the TFG because they need them as a buffer to keep the ICU from trying to get the Ogaden Region inside Ethiopia (but populated by Somalis).

Sidenote: the other option is for the Ethiopians to cut a deal with the ICU, which would collapse the TFG, and the TFG's Interim President would, it is described, flee northward to Galcaio and past that into Puntland, "beyond a line separating the Hawiye and Darood clans." This might help you all visualize that.

Oh, and there is a report - I'm not going to say confirmed yet - that the Ugandans have also sent troops to Baidoa, but for peacekeeping purposes, not to engage in fighting. Good luck with that.

[WMS]

*edit*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things. New Map on Wiki! Here. Good depiction of Regional control by the factions.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Jubbada Dhexe - Contested between the Juba Valley Alliance and the ICU (see the Wiki Map). The BBC Map however, says the ICU controls all of it (yet not the Mudug portion along the coast...hmm). Not sure...
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

Well, that was quick. The ICU swooped in and captured Kismaayo/Chisimayu on, let's see, ah, yes, shortly after my last post on Sept. 22. Then they fired on anti-ICU demonstrators there. Lovely. There have been more demonstrators, and more firings on them, since then.

This appears to have triggered the movement of "several hundred" Ethiopian troops to Baidoa to defend the TFG (yeah, yeah, Ethiopia officially denied it but seriously now...), which the ICU called a declaration of war. Now, it is very likely that Ethiopia will decide to defend the TFG because they need them as a buffer to keep the ICU from trying to get the Ogaden Region inside Ethiopia (but populated by Somalis).

Sidenote: the other option is for the Ethiopians to cut a deal with the ICU, which would collapse the TFG, and the TFG's Interim President would, it is described, flee northward to Galcaio and past that into Puntland, "beyond a line separating the Hawiye and Darood clans." This might help you all visualize that.

Oh, and there is a report - I'm not going to say confirmed yet - that the Ugandans have also sent troops to Baidoa, but for peacekeeping purposes, not to engage in fighting. Good luck with that.

Some more bits...

First, more on the Ugandans. The analysis I read indicated that yes, the Ugandans are moving to contain the ICU (which isn't the ICU - more on that in a sec) and that in order to support their troops in Baidoa, they are going to need to control of an overland supply route...and the Somalian city of Baardheere in the SE corner of Gedo Region will be absolutely vital. You see, with the ICU capture of Kismayo, the Ugandans can't supply by sea, and air supply is the province of the industrialized world. So, expect some major battles between the Islamists and the Ugandans. Now, as to why Uganda is getting involved, it is to prevent the ICU from supporting one of their rebel groups, the Allied Democratic Front, which has some Islamist ties, apparently.

The Kenyans have sent troops to someplace called Kiunga on the border with Somalia to monitor the new batch of 25,000 refugees coming across the border...

The ICU - err, actually, they are now the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) - closed the offices of a radio station in Kismayo on accusations of broadcasting false information about the SICC and its conquest of Kismayo...six of one, half a dozen of the other by all accounts...the radio station (HornAfrik FTR) was linked to the TFG, but closing it down is authoritarian regardless.

Oh, the SICC announced their militias will unite into one army with no clan or ideological divisions. Easier said than done, although if they pull it off they become significantly more powerful.

Meanwhile, the TFG's Prime Minister announced that troops from Ethiopia and Kenya are on alert and will help the TFG if the SICC attacks them. The important note here is the appearance of the Kenyans on the side of the TFG.

And the SICC apparently took someplace called Jawill, "10 miles from the Ethiopian border", on Sept. 30 after "defeating a pro-government militia there". I have no idea what Region it is in, although my guesses would be one of Bakool, Hiraan, Galguduud, or Mudug Region...leaning toward Bakool or Hiraan...

[WMS]

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things. New Map on Wiki! Here. Good depiction of Regional control by the factions.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the SICC here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and SICC
Jubbada Dhexe - Contested between the Juba Valley Alliance and the SICC (see the Wiki Map). The BBC Map however, says the SICC controls all of it (yet not the Mudug portion along the coast...hmm). Not sure...
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - SICC control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, SICCU, and maybe local warlords.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the SICC making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

Meanwhile, the TFG's Prime Minister announced that troops from Ethiopia and Kenya are on alert and will help the TFG if the SICC attacks them. The important note here is the appearance of the Kenyans on the side of the TFG.

Bi-weekly update...

Starting with the item in bold above, it apears the Ethiopian presence has caused another split in the TFG, with 36 legislators switching sides to the SICC. Not sure how much influence they had.

The Juba Valley Alliance said they had a deal with the TFG to retake Kismayo...the TFG wouldn't say anything about it. Meanwhile, there were more protests in Kismayo, this time anti-Ethiopian and anti-foreign intervention ones. Staged by the SICC? Genuine? Some of both, I suspect.

The Kenyans are increasing their anti-terrorist and anti-insurgency officer training in response to recent events. They are worried about the SICC, clearly...

Apparently, the Ethiopians are shelling SICC positions around Beledweyne, in Hiraan Region. The SICC took that back in June. Perhaps the Ethiopians are putting pressure on the SICC here to draw them away from Baidoa?

From another source...
"September 30, 2006: Islamic Courts gunmen put down protests by angry civilians in the southern port of Kismayo. Several civilians were shot, and many more arrested. Kismayo was a pretty peaceful place, but the local  religious leaders were of the more traditional, and moderate, type common in Somalia. The Islamic Courts practice a more conservative form of Islam (imported from, and subsidized by, Saudi Arabia).

A key village in the west, controlling one of the few roads from Ethiopia, was seized by Islamic Courts gunmen, after a brief battle with fighters loyal to the Transitional Government. At least four died in the fighting."

The point about Kismayo is interesting, and the bolded part...matches the bit about Jawill from before. So it's in the west, is it? Hmm...Bakool or Hiraan is looking like a better guess all the time. Maybe even Gedo...

And from the BBC..NOOOOOOOO! Stay away from Somaliland, you bastards!

[ilikeverin]

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[WMS]

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

The red flags are up!

[WMS]

*snip and update* *damn, this took a while to assemble*
And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things. Note: this map is still on Wiki but is no longer on the Somalia front page.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the SICC here yet. TFG faction: Jubaland. The Ugandans will be moving in here as well, in the south. I'm actualy not sure the Ethiopians are even here.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and SICC. TFG faction in Bay: Southwestern Somalia. TFG factions in Bakool: Southwestern Somalia and the TFG core.
Jubbada Dhexe - Contested between the TFG faction Juba Valley Alliance/Jubaland and the SICC (see the Wiki Map). The northern and western portion is TFG and the eastern and southern portion is SICC. Active fighting here.
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - SICC control. The Ethiopians appear to be pressuring the SICC in Hiraan.
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, SICC, and maybe local warlords. Actually, given the most recent Wiki Map, that is exactly what is going on. Puntland is in the north and northwest, the SICC is pushing into the northwest from Galguduud Region, the Ethiopians are in the same area along the border, and then there's this Southern Mudug grouping which I think is allied to but not subsumed into the SICC. Maybe. They are also pushing into the northwest. There appears to be a lot of fighting developing in this Region.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, still. The SICC attempted to intervene in Nugaal earlier this year on a low-level basis but failed. I think. Given that Nugaal holds the Puntland capital I'd say it is well-defended.
Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the SICC making an appearance in Sool briefly...note the briefly part. Sanaag and Sool both appear to have their western Districts held securely by Somaliland and their central and eastern Districts contested with Puntland. In Sanaag the balance appears to favor Somaliland whereas things lean more toward Puntland in Sool. Togdheer is new on this list, mostly because the far SE of it is contested with Puntland. I'd say the balance here definitely favors Somaliland.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed - Somaliland control, decisively.

Look at Wikipedia's map. OMG it's good. For that matter, someone's added all sorts of information. It's nice not to be the only one paying attention. It's a bit of a nationalistic map and what's this about the Southern Mudug?

Since the last episode...mixing my sources here...backbone via StrategyPage (up through October 10 but not later), with Stratfor supporting. I'd use the BBC more if they had a better search function. Opinions are expressed by all sources in the commentary, too.

October 17, 2006: In Jubbada Dhexe Region the TFG faction Jubaland has launched an assault toward Bu'aale and Jilib, taken from Jubaland by the SICC last month. These two towns are on the approach to Kismaayo. I wonder how this will turn out?

October 16, 2006: The SICC says they will attend peace talks...hosted by Sudan. They say if the TFG doesn't attend them it means the TFG is opposed to Arab mediation. Playing the ethnic-regional card, are we?

October 12, 2006: Major Stratfor article. Basically, the U.S. is working to contain the SICC via regional and Somalian proxies. Kenya will guard the SW. Uganda will, from bases in Baardhere through Baidoa, guard the NW triangle. The Ethiopians will, from Baidoa through Beledweyne (currently held by the SICC) and up close to Gaalkacyo, guard the WC region (and the TFG core). From there, running from the Ethiopian border through to the coastline on a slightly SE-ern line and most definitely centered in Gaalkacyo, the Darood clan inside Somalia will guard the central areas and form a northern seal. Note that the Interim President of the TFG, Abdullahi Yusuf, is a Darood. This is important. Note that the Darood have fought the neighboring Hawiye clan for decades. Note that the military leader of the SICC, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Awyes, is a Hawiye. This is also important. The Darood will not be joining the SICC willingly.

The SICC will likely throw jihadist bombers at Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti (hosting the Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa command center following the 9/11 tasks with French support) to hit the U.S. regional presence. Remember 1998?

Note, finally, that the U.S. has been allied with Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda for a decade or more. This is important.

October 11, 2006: The government of Djibouti offered to mediate between the TFG, SICC, Ethiopia and Uganda. No word on how that went.

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs Theresa Whelan said Oct. 11 that U.S.-Ethiopian military collaboration is strong. Whelan is visiting Ethiopia. See the October 12 entry...

October 10, 2006: Italy called for the deployment of "neutral" observers to watch the Ethiopia-Somalia border. Somali sources reported that troops loyal to Somalia's Transitional  Government took the town of Buur Hakaba (near the Ethiopian border). The government troops were allegedly supported by Ethiopian military forces. But the Islamic Courts forces promptly retook Buur Hakaba. <- Bay Region still, and that was fast.

October 9, 2006: The war rhetoric continues to escalate between Ethiopia and the Somalia Islamic Courts. A Somali Islamist militia issued a statement declaring "jihad" against Ethiopia. The Islamic Courts government also repeated the allegation that Ethiopia has a substantial number of troops deployed inside Somalia. The Ethiopian government responded by saying Ethiopia would defend itself against Somali Islamists. Ethiopia also called on the international community to support Somalia's Transitional National Government in its fight against the Islamic Courts. <- Confirms and expands on Stratfor info. However, the claim of 35,000 Ethiopians is an exaggeration...Ethiopia can't support that many all the way in Baidoa. Several hundred in-country is more accurate, with several thousand ready-reserve troops in Ethiopia.

Ethiopian and Transitional Government troops recaptured the town of Buur Hakaba from the Islamic Courts. The town is between Mogadishu and the Transitional Government stronghold of Baidoa. <- This has been in this thread before, Bay Region.

October 8, 2006: Encouraged by continued demonstrations in Kismayo, the clan that long controlled the port town is planning to attack and push the Islamic Courts out. Demonstrations yesterday resulted in the arrest of at least a hundred civilians. The demonstrations are against the lifestyle police (no videos, no stimulants, no much of anything that's entertaining), as well as the Islamic Courts grabbing control of the income producing activities at the port. While many Somalis appreciate the law and order the Islamic Courts bring with them, most Somalis are also concerned about jobs and lifestyle issues.

October 7, 2006:  The number of people fleeing Somalia is on the rise. Over 2,000 have left in the last week, and over 30,000 this year. Those who feel they will not get along with the Taliban-like Islamic Courts are leading the flight.

October 6, 2006: Somali Islamic Courts fighters reported they are facing Ethiopian troops near the villages of Waraqumayo and Fjirarle (in Somalia). The Islamists claim that 1,500 Ethiopian troops are deployed in the area. Ethiopia denied the allegation. <- Confirms and expands Stratfor info. Best guess as to location...Hiraan Region.

Well, that's it for now. BRTD, just remane this WMS' Somalia War Thread already.

[WMS]

*snip and update* *damn, this took a while to assemble...again*
And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things. Note: this map is still on Wiki but is no longer on the Somalia front page.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the SICC here yet. TFG faction: Jubaland. The Ugandans will be moving in here as well, in the south. I'm actualy not sure the Ethiopians are even here.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and SICC. TFG faction in Bay: Southwestern Somalia. TFG factions in Bakool: Southwestern Somalia and the TFG core.
Jubbada Dhexe - Contested between the TFG faction Juba Valley Alliance/Jubaland and the SICC (see the Wiki Map). The northern and western portion is TFG and the eastern and southern portion is SICC. Active fighting here.
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - SICC control. The Ethiopians appear to be pressuring the SICC in Hiraan.
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, SICC, and maybe local warlords.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, still. The SICC attempted to intervene in Nugaal earlier this year on a low-level basis but failed. I think. Given that Nugaal holds the Puntland capital I'd say it is well-defended.
Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the SICC making an appearance in Sool briefly...note the briefly part. Sanaag and Sool both appear to have their western Districts held securely by Somaliland and their central and eastern Districts contested with Puntland. In Sanaag the balance appears to favor Somaliland whereas things lean more toward Puntland in Sool. Togdheer is new on this list, mostly because the far SE of it is contested with Puntland. I'd say the balance here definitely favors Somaliland.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed - Somaliland control, decisively.

Look at Wikipedia's map. OMG it's good. For that matter, someone's added all sorts of information. It's nice not to be the only one paying attention. It's a bit of a nationalistic map and what's this about the Southern Mudug?

Since the last episode...mixing my sources here...backbone via StrategyPage [no longer blocked from work ] (up through October 29 but not later), with Stratfor supporting. Opinions are expressed by all sources in the commentary, too. A little overlap with the last version...

October 31, 2006: Forces of the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) stationed in the town of Buur Hakaba -- only 18 miles from the transitional federal government seat in Baidoa -- have declared they will advance on Baidoa despite ongoing efforts to end the conflict diplomatically, Reuters reported Oct 31. SICC commanders say their fight is with Ethiopian troops supporting the transitional government and not the actual government itself, with whom they are to meet in Khartoum.

October 30, 2006: The Somalian Islamist Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) broke off negotiations with Somalia's transitional government before a third round of peace talks set for Oct. 30 in Sudan, The Associated Press reported, citing SICC Foreign Affairs chief Ibrahim Hassan Adow. He added that talks will not be held until Ethiopian troops leave Somalia. <-- Or in other words, there will be no talks.

October 29, 2006: Ethiopia continues to describe its confrontation with
Somali Islamists as a "proxy war" with Eritrea. The  government believes
that the new Somali Islamic Courts leader, Sheikh Dahir Aweys has "close
connections" with Eritrea's leaders. Aweys recently declared a "jihad"
against Ethiopia. Aweys was once associated with al-Itihaad al-Islamiya, an
Islamist group with alleged links to al Qaeda. Ethiopia now says the key
date in the relationship between Eritrea and Aweys is November 14, 2005.
Ethiopia maintains that a delegation from the Eritrean foreign ministry met
with Aweys. One version reported that the Eritrean foreign ministry
officials were posing as businesspeople. In this meeting (or in subsequent
contacts), Eritrea agreed to supply the Islamic Courts with ammunition and
weapons (to include anti-armor and anti-aircraft weapons and ammunition).
Ethiopia has provided support for Somalia's Transitional National
Government (TNG). <-- Proxy War, oh yes, Proxy War.

October 26, 2006: Stratfor did a long article this day as well. Here is the summary: Troops in Somalia are digging in for an anticipated battle between the country's interim government and its allies on one side and the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) on the other. Despite recent successes, a SICC victory is not assured, since the Islamists have yet to prove themselves in a pitched battle. The interim government and its allies face their own logistical obstacles, however. Regardless of who emerges victorious, fears are running high among Somalian civilians that clan reprisals will result from this struggle.

The article then discusses this in depth. Notes: A map of theirs shows Ethiopians moving toward Gaalkacyo and Beledweyne (both battle sites already) as well as into TFG territory, and Ugandans moving toward Baardheere. Neither side is likely to easily dislodge the other from their strongholds. And about those clan reprisals...I did mention the Hawiye and Darood before, didn't I? The clans, respectively, of the SICC and TFG leaders? The ethnic boundary may become the territorial one in central Somalia.

BBC: Fighters loyal to Somalia's Islamic courts have taken control of a key trading town from the transitional government without bloodshed.
They drove into Sakow on Wednesday evening moving closer to the seat of the interim administration in Baidoa. <-- Check the Wiki Main Map on the Somalia page. The Juba Valley Alliance just got pwned.

October 23, 2006: Stratfor had a separate main article on the situation: Somalia's Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) appears to have reached the limits of its control: On Saturday, the movement lost the city of Bur Hakaba to government troops. It was the SICC's first such loss since it began scoring a string of victories in June, but it comes as the SICC is showing signs of recognizing other constraints and the need to expand its base of support in Somalia.

The article goes on to discuss possible options. Nationalism vs. Ethiopia to bring in the Sufi Muslims is a plus, the Wahhabist Islamism of the SICC is a minus in that same effort (Somalis are NOT like Saudis - religious, yes; fanatical, no).

October 21, 2006: Representatives of the Somaliland Republic (the
separatist "statelet within Somalia") once again appealed for international
recognition of their state. The statement was made in the Ethiopian capital
of Addis Ababa. Ethiopia supports Somaliland separatism.

October 20, 2006: The Islamic Courts say they will undertake a "intifada" campaign of guerilla warfare against  the separatist governments in Somaliland and Puntland. The same tactics will be used across the border areas of  Ethiopia and Kenya inhabited by Somali speaking people. This is in line with the popular Somali concept of "Greater Somalia", and an expansion of Somali borders. In addition to the low level violence, al Qaeda trained personnel are recruiting suicide bombers for more violent attacks. These will include assassination attacks against Transitional Government militias.

October 16, 2006: Islamic radicals in the separatist state of Somaliland are trying to terrorize the government and media to support the Islamic Courts. This could mean civil war in Somaliland, which has been peaceful for several years.

OK...lots of fighting and manuevers for the second half of October 2006.

Bolded parts: *snarls* Away! Away from Somaliland!

[WMS]

*geez, I'm gonna have to, once again, cut a lot of stuff out*
Check here and here for your Somali mapping needs.
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the SICC here yet. TFG faction: Jubaland. The Ugandans will be moving in here as well, in the south.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and SICC. TFG faction in Bay: Southwestern Somalia. TFG factions in Bakool: Southwestern Somalia and the TFG core. Active fighting in Bay.
Jubbada Dhexe - Contested between the TFG faction Juba Valley Alliance/Jubaland and the SICC (see the Wiki Map). The northern and western portion is TFG and the eastern and southern portion is SICC - Bu'aale and Jilib are SICC. Active fighting here, although the main focus has shifted north to Mudug.
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - SICC control. The Ethiopians appear to be pressuring the SICC in Hiraan, specifically Beledweyne.
Mudug - Contested between Puntland and the SICC, with Ethiopian involvement. Active fighting here. It appears the "Southern Mudug" faction was a warlord which allied with the SICC and now the SICC has absorbed it.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, still. The SICC attempted to intervene in Nugaal earlier this year on a low-level basis but failed. I think. Given that Nugaal holds the Puntland capital I'd say it is well-defended.
Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland. Sanaag and Sool both appear to have their western Districts held securely by Somaliland and their central and eastern Districts contested with Puntland. In Sanaag the balance appears to favor Somaliland whereas things lean more toward Puntland in Sool. Togdheer is new on this list, mostly because the far SE of it is contested with Puntland. I'd say the balance here definitely favors Somaliland. And recently Somaliland has been moving forces into southern Togdheer.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed - Somaliland control, decisively.

Since the last episode...mixing my sources here...mix of StrategyPage with Stratfor. More or less the first half of November. Major Event: Puntland and the SICC go to war. The Kenyans also have increased patrols near Somalia and banned flights between Somalia and Kenya. Talks have failed as expected. They'll sputter to a restart once in a while but never go anywhere.

October 31, 2006: The SICC peacefully seizes the port town of Hobyo. Given that the warlord here had already allied with the SICC, this is probably just a consolidation rather than a conquest.

Also on this date: "The United States warned both Ethiopia and Eritrea to "not interfere" in Somalia's civil war. The US statement said that Washington is worried about foreign "troop activities" in Somalia. The diplo-speak was an acknowledgement that there are foreign troops (ie, Ethiopian and possibly Eritrean) inside Somalia."

Also on this date, a bigger picture StrategyPage bit: "Islamic Courts gunmen are slowly surrounding the Transitional Government stronghold at Baidoa. However, a final battle would involve several thousand Ethiopian troops apparently camped in and around Baidoa. Meanwhile, the Islamic Courts encounter increased hostility from Somalis who don't care to live under Islamic law. The Islamic Courts say they will go after Puntland,  Somaliland and areas in Ethiopia with Somali populations, once they have destroyed the Transitional Government of Somalia. " Ah, we haven't had an irredentist war in a decade or so...

November 1, 2006: Both the TFG and the Ethiopians say war is highly likely with the SICC.

November 2-4, 2006: SICC troops test their rockets and say they will strike first against TFG forces in Baidoa. *loooks at rest of post* Eventually.

Also on November 2: "Members of the Islamic Courts in Somalia accused Ethiopia of "declaring war" on Somalia. Other charges included alleging Ethiopia intends to set off bombs in Ethiopia and Kenya and then blame the attacks on the Islamic Courts. This will then "justify" an Ethiopian attack on the Islamic Courts militias inside Somalia. Call this the Islamic Courts version of "the Poland scenario." In 1939, prior to the panzer assault on Poland, Nazi Germany launched fake attacks on Germany and claimed the attacks were carried out by Polish forces."

November 5, 2006: Clash between SICC and TFG outside Baidoa.

November 6, 2006: Fighting between the SICC and Puntland near the town of Galinsoor, which per Wiki is located near the border between the Mudug and Galgaduud Regions. *Yep, confirmed by other sources: on the border.

November 7, 2006: A rare day of happier news: a new round of talks announced between the TFG and the SICC, spurred by all the Ethiopians pouring into the Baidoa area. Also, the SICC freed an Indian ship that had been attacked by pirates.

November 8, 2006: Fighting continues around Bandiradley (70km SW of Galcaio per Wiki, along the main highway), which appears to have switched hands more than once between the SICC and one of Puntland's allied warlords.

Also on this date: A UN report belives that there are 6000+ Ethiopian and 2000+ Eritrean troops inside Somalia, backing the TFG and SICC respectively.

November 12, 2006: Fighting between SICC and Puntland reported, vague location.

Also on this date, Bandiradley reported as having been taken by the SICC. The SICC announced they were moving into Puntland (no, really?).

November 13, 2006: Report of SICC threatening Galcaio, which is held by a TFG/Puntland allied warlord. 300 Ethiopians are said to have reinforced it.

November 14, 2006: Mixed Puntland-Ethiopian forces (~3000+, with the above report about 3300 soldiers) move to reinforce Galcaio (there are three bloody spellings here, work with me). Follow the dots here - the SICC has attacked NE out of Galgaduud Region toward Galcaio.

Also on this date, a UN report asserts that the SICC has been receiving money and weapons from several Moslem countries, including Syria, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Egypt (!), Eritrea, Djibouti (!) and Saudi Arabia. The TFG is, as we all know by now, backed by Ethiopia, Uganda, and Yemen (!). All (!) countries are surprises to me.

*waves to whoever is reading these updates*

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

*waves back to the nice WMS*  Keep up the good work!

[ilikeverin]

*waves back* Somaliland will win, I can feel it in my bones

[WMS]

*waves back to the nice WMS*  Keep up the good work!

Why thank you it's good to know some people actually follow this thread and I'll keep doing this 2-3 times a month (gotta let the events build up) until it ends.

*waves back* Somaliland will win, I can feel it in my bones

*bows* Yeah, they beat Mohammed Siad Barre, they can beat the SICC!

[WMS]

*snippity snip snip*
Newly discovered: Someone on Wiki is following this as closely as I am. Quite good. Also this user, the one who is doing that, has some interesting comments. Information on events in Gedo and Jubbada Dhexe Regions is almost entirely from this source (who in turn relies on various sources). Also the bolded notes on Southwestern Somalia and Somaliland are from this individual.
Check here and here for your Somali mapping needs.

Gedo - The SICC has arrived. The Jubaland TFG faction appears to be splintering as some clan and sub-clan elements switch sides following the ICU victories in October and a mini-civil war appears to be erupting...in the middle of a flood.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and SICC. TFG faction in Bay: Southwestern Somalia. TFG factions in Bakool: Southwestern Somalia and the TFG core. Plenty of troop buildup, but only one major clash this update. Southwestern Somalia and their military forces, the Rahanweyn Resistance Army, has sat out this conflict entirely thus far, though it is possible that pro-Government RRA factions may be deployed in support of the government at Baidoa. The RRA has a longstanding "wait and see" policy when it comes to involvement outside Rahanweyn clan territory, so this is not surprising.
Jubbada Dhexe - almost entirely under SICC (and pro-SICC Jubaland factions) control, but active (waterlogged) fighting continues with pro-TFG Jubaland factions.
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - SICC control.
Mudug - Contested between Puntland and the SICC, with Ethiopian involvement. Active fighting here. Go read the first link above for the updated history of what's been going on here - the creation of the buffer state of Galmudug between the SICC and Puntland, and its later dissolution as both sides attacked each other. It has reappeared yet again as pro-SICC tribes join in on the fierce Gaalkacayo battle.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, still.
Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer - Sanaag and Sool both appear to have their western Districts held securely by Somaliland and their central and eastern Districts contested with Puntland. In Sanaag the balance appears to favor Somaliland whereas things lean more toward Puntland in Sool, with Togdheer as almost entirely controlled by Somaliland. Recently Somaliland has been moving forces into southern Togdheer.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed - Somaliland control, decisively. Though the ICU has been somewhat bellicose towards Somaliland, due to their alleged ill treatment of a respected Jihadist religious leader in Somaliland, and Somaliland has been quite hostile to the ICU whom they term "false prophets", Somaliland remains uninvolved in the conflict. Somaliland is traditionally the heartland of the AIAI, and support is quite high for the ICU in Somaliland territory, and conflict may occur in the future. Now, I'd like a damn source for the "support is quite high for the ICU in Somaliland territory" claim.

Since the last episode...mixing my sources here...mix of StrategyPage with Stratfor. More or less the second half of November. I cannot resist titling this Fire and Flood.

November 15, 2006: Ugandan soldiers are apparently operating inside Somalia, training TFG supporters. And let's quote: "The Ugandan soldiers are not deployed as a fighting force but are "entitled to defend themselves" if attacked. The presence of Ugandan troops in Somalia is another indicator that an attempt by the Islamic Courts in Somalia to destroy Somalia's Transitional Government could produce a wider regional war."

November 16, 2006: Kenya halts khat flights into Mogadishu. Best StrategyPage Title EVAR: "Khat Fight".

November 17, 2006: Well, the SICC then banned khat anyway. And there was some rioting over this.

Also on this date: Ethiopian troops reported to be taking positions near the Somali village of Modmodey (~15km from Baidoa), which is between Baidoa and the SICC positions.

Also on this date: Uganda denied it has sent any troops to Somalia, but it says a battalion of peacekeepers is being trained for deployment there. Of course, with Gedo in the process of getting overrun and Baardheere seriously threatened by the SICC, they may never get there.

November 20, 2006: The SICC claims to have ambushed an Ethiopian convoy near Baidoa...probably true. The StrategyPage article on this date lists Uganda, Yemen, Kenya, and Ethiopia as TFG backers and Eritrea and "other Arab countries" (from the Nov. 17 report: Egypt, Iran, and maybe Hezbollah) as SICC backers. It also discusses the possibilities of U.S. intervention, as some Al Qaida members have been spotted with the SICC (which is not to say that the SICC is an Al Qaida group). Ethiopia denies this and says a truck of theirs hit a land mine in Baidoa. Actually, both of these could have happened - the ambush and hitting landmines.

Also on this date: For that matter, the TFG denied it as well. Stratfor had a lenghty article on how this is an attempt to avoid enflaming anti-Ethiopian sentiment in Somalia and also an attempt to avoid weakening the Ethiopian prime minister's weak position inside Ethiopia. However, the SICC's declaration of support for a 'Greater Somalia' means Ethiopia cannot stay out of Somalia.

November 23, 2006: "The Ethiopian government said that the Islamic Courts militia in Somalia presented Ethiopia with 'a clear threat.'" That's basically declaring war, peeps. Ethiopian troops reportedly exchanged fire with Somali fighters near the town of Adale (south of Baidoa).

November 24, 2006: "An Islamist leader in Somalia called on all Somalis to prepare to fight "the Ethiopian invaders." One Somali group said that the statement amounted to a "declaration of war" (against Ethiopia)." And the SICC returns the favor.

November 25, 2006: "The US has given Kenya and Ethiopia evidence that Somali Islamists intend to launch suicide attacks inside Kenya and Ethiopia. Islamist agents would also try to assassinate 'prominent Kenyans' and ethnic Somalis. That presumably means ethnic Somalis not aligned with the Islamic Courts and its allies. Ethnic Somalis live in northern Kenya and in eastern Ethiopia." Regional War, O Regional War...

November 27, 2006: "'Several thousand' Somali Islamic Courts militiamen are reported to have moved to a position fifteen kilometers from the Ethiopia border. The militiamen are near the town of Abudwaaq (in Mudug Region). An Islamic Courts spokesman said that its forces were 'ready to confront' the enemy (ie, Ethiopia)." [more on this from Stratfor in a bit]

"Any war between Somalia and Ethiopia would be one of raids. The border area is in the middle of nowhere, logistically speaking, and neither side can muster large quantities of fuel, and other supplies, to support large mechanized forces. But columns of trucks, loaded with infantry and some mortars, are another thing. Ethiopia also has an air force, but the air bases are a long way from the Somali border, and few of the aircraft are in flying condition." And here's the style of fighting.

Also on this date: A major article by Stratfor examines the SICC reinforcement of Abudwaaq in central Somalia. It is designed to seal off central Ethiopia from Ethiopian forces that are bogged down in the south by...major regional flooding (the Deyr). As if things weren't chaotic enough. Pretty much all of Jubaland is flooded...and engulfed in chaos. Flooding is also present in parts of Ethiopia...right along the supply routes. So everyone is going to wait for the water to recede before resuming the serious fighting, probably mid-December or late December. Oh, the Ethiopians are massing their forces across the border from the SICC's massed forces. And yes, Abudwaaq is positioned for SICC access into the Ogaden inside Ethiopia...'Greater Somalia', remember?

November 28, 2006: SICC claims Ethiopian forces fired 12 missiles at the town of Bandiradley, 310 miles north of Mogadishu. Bandiradley, in Mudug, fell to the SICC in fighting November 8-12 (last update ).

*again waves to whoever is reading these updates*

[WMS]

*snippity snip snip snip*
Newly discovered: Someone on Wiki is following this as closely as I am. Quite good. Also this user, the one who is doing that, has some interesting comments. Information on events in Gedo and Jubbada Dhexe Regions is almost entirely from this source (who in turn relies on various different sources). Check here and here for your Somali mapping needs.

Gedo - The SICC has arrived. The Jubaland TFG faction appears to be splintering as some clan and sub-clan elements switch sides following the ICU victories in October and a mini-civil war appears to be erupting...in the middle of a flood. Nothing new from last update.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and SICC. TFG faction in Bay: Southwestern Somalia and the TFG core (corrected). TFG factions in Bakool: Southwestern Somalia. Major fighting has broken out in Bay. More details below, but this is pretty big. And the Wiki indicates fighting has erupted in Bakool as well.
Jubbada Dhexe - almost entirely under SICC (and pro-SICC Jubaland factions) control, but active (waterlogged) fighting continues with pro-TFG Jubaland factions. Nothing new from last update.
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - SICC control, perhaps contested in Hiraan.
Mudug - Contested between Puntland and the SICC, with Ethiopian involvement. Active fighting here. Go read the first link above for the updated history of what's been going on here - the creation of the buffer state of Galmudug between the SICC and Puntland, and its later dissolution as both sides attacked each other. It has reappeared yet again as pro-SICC tribes join in on the fierce Gaalkacayo battle. Nothing new from last update.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, still.
Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer - Sanaag and Sool both appear to have their western Districts held securely by Somaliland and their central and eastern Districts contested with Puntland. In Sanaag the balance appears to favor Somaliland whereas things lean more toward Puntland in Sool, with Togdheer as almost entirely controlled by Somaliland. Recently Somaliland has been moving forces into southern Togdheer.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed - Somaliland control, decisively. Let's just say that Somaliland and the SICC are mutually hostile, and that at one point it was feared Puntland might switch sides and make things nasty.
Since the last episode...mixing my sources here...mix of StrategyPage with Stratfor. More or less Nov. 29 - Dec. 12. This episode's title: The Battle of Dinsoor: Full War Erupts.

November 30, 2006: Car bombing in Baidoa. Or maybe a suicide bomber - different claims are made for agendas (i.e., if it's a suicide bomber that means Al Qaida, and thus more Western aid for the TFG). Stratfor says it was likely intended to hit the Ethiopians, and points out that the SICC has been attacking the supply route to Baidoa from the west (which de facto reinforces the Wiki point about Jubaland).

December 1, 2006: SICC captures the town of Dinsoor, 270 km W of Mogadishu. The SICC approached, and the SW Somalian forces pulled out (per my source) or defected (per the source in Wiki). Look here. I was wondering when this was going to happen, given its location.

December 3, 2006: TFG/Ethiopian/SW Somalian troops move to re-capture Dinsoor.

From the Wiki: 60 SICC soldiers switched sides in Baidoa over dissatisfaction with SICC extremist policies.

December 4-5, 2006: TFG bans cars traveling between Mogadishu to Baidoa in order to prevent further car bombings.

December 6, 2006: The UN authorizes a peacekeeping force for Somalia to back the TFG, but not from any bordering countries. Easier said than done. It is supposed to have 8000 troops and run for 6 months. At the moment, guess who is the only country to offer troops? Look at December 9...

December 7, 2006: The SICC said the entry of UN peacekeepers means war.

December 8, 2006: TFG/SICC fighting at Bandiradley (from last time, in Mudug), and more reports of heavy fighting at Dinsoor.

From another article: The SICC accused the Ethiopians of shelling their positions at Bandiradley again back on December 6. Also, the SICC said that they engaged and defeated a force of 1800 Ethiopian trops near Dinsoor (claim is o/c disputed).

And also on the Wiki. So, December 8 was the main date of the battle.

December 9, 2006: Fighting ends at Dinsoor, and the SICC remains in control. Skirmishing reported about 40km south of Baidoa between the TFG and the SICC, at the village of Maddoy, where they were beaten on December 8; and 80 km southwest of Baidoa between the Ethiopians and the SICC. Two different battlefronts? Well, that is QUITE possible. Look at the map - from Buurhakaba and now from Dinsoor. Comments on the Wiki article parallel mine.

From another article: The Ugandans are willing to provide at least one battalion of peacekeepers to an AU peacekeeping force in Somalia. This has stirred some debate in Uganda: "Uganda does not want to become part of a wider regional war if an intense (rather than low-grade) war between Somali and Ethiopia erupts." They like the Ethiopians, but not THAT much.

From Wiki: "Ferocious artillery duels" around Dinsoor. And apparently the warlord of fricking Jowhar (just north of Mogadishu), who got beaten half a year ago, entered Hiraan Region with his militia. Expect a battle there. A short one, probably, but a battle nonetheless.

December 10, 2006: "Ethiopian trainers and combat troops are helping the militias in Puntland and Somaliland (two independent parts of northern Somalia) to resist takeover attempts by Islamic militants." And now we see the Ethiopians step up their efforts in the north. Good to see them helping Somaliland.

From the Wiki article: The ICU formally declares its intention to capture Baidoa. Well, here we go...

December 11, 2006: General StrategyPage article, pointing out that whilel the fighting has died down (but maybe not judging from above), the SICC keeps pushing back the TFG whenever there is a fight; there are no trained soldiers in this, just warriors, thus fighting is sporadic and breaks off when one side loses enthusiasm; and thus it will be up to Ethiopian troops (they DO have trained soldiers) or UN peacekeepers to prevent the SICC from destroying the TFG.

From the Wiki: And there goes SW Somalia. Tiyeeglow (east-northeast of Baidoa, Bakool region) is reported to be captured by the SICC, who can now attack the northern supply routes to Baidoa (remember, the western supply routes are both flooded and have been under attack since late November). In order to encircle Baidoa, the SICC needs to take Hudur/Oddur/Xudur (yes, 3 spellings! ) and Wajid in Bakool Region, and Luuk in Gedo Region (and if this is enough to encircle Baidoa then Jubaland really is falling to the SICC as well), and they are ALL on the road from Tiyeeglow.

*edit* Wiki updated as I wrote this! "The ICU's strategy became clear following the battles near Dinsoor, which clearly demonstrated that the ICU has sufficient firepower to force their way into Baidoa if they chose to. The ICU has chosen instead to cut off all support to the city and force it to surrender, while simultaneously taking control of the rest of Bay and Bakool."*edit*

*edit 2* Events moving quickly. From here, selected highlights, today's article:

""Starting today, if the Ethiopians don't leave our land within seven days, we will attack them and force them to leave our country," said Islamist defence chief Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siad "Inda'ade"."
and the reply was...
"A government spokesman dismissed the warning, and accused the Islamists of using Ethiopia as a scapegoat while flying in foreign fighters. " <--- Gauntlets are being thrown...

also...
"On Monday, both sides said they were sending troops to Tiyeglow, on the main road from the Ethiopia border to Baidoa, following last week's clashes south-west of Baidoa.

"Our fighters, with large number of battle wagons, are now advancing on Tiyeglow," said UIC official Mohamed Ibrahim Bilaal.

"We will go to all border towns in our country to deprive our enemy [Ethiopia] of a route to enter into our country."

Government commander Mohamed Ali Gaboobe said they had sent some 700 troops to Tiyeglow on Sunday to prevent "Islamist expansion"." <-- Like the Wiki article...might even be the source...
oh, and finally...

"Correspondents say the military build-up makes it less likely that any peacekeepers will be deployed.

On Monday, Uganda, the only country which has publicly pledged to send troops, said the situation was now too risky. " <-- So the SICC has succeeded in keeping the Ugandans out after all. That's a significant victory for them.

And the Main Battle is joined, peeps.

*again waves to whoever is reading these updates*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mogadishu has fallen

[Storebought]

"Ethiopia invades Somalia" -- Sounds like the punchline to a Sam Kinison joke.

It is interesting that Ethiopia could make such quick work with organized Islamist warlords, while the US, in the same region, came to such a pitiful end.

On the one hand, Ethiopian military can engage in ... tactics ... that
would never be tolerated by liberal opinion in this country.

On the other, who is to say that the Somali Islamist army, made of unemployed ignorant teenagers, hasn't simply thrown off their uniform and mixed back into the general population? Advances against a retreating rag-tag army are easy --- counterinsurgencies are not.

[WMS]

Mogadishu has fallen

Yes, yes, I've been busy, and so have they.

"Ethiopia invades Somalia" -- Sounds like the punchline to a Sam Kinison joke.

It is interesting that Ethiopia could make such quick work with organized Islamist warlords, while the US, in the same region, came to such a pitiful end.

On the one hand, Ethiopian military can engage in ... tactics ... that
would never be tolerated by liberal opinion in this country.

On the other, who is to say that the Somali Islamist army, made of unemployed ignorant teenagers, hasn't simply thrown off their uniform and mixed back into the general population? Advances against a retreating rag-tag army are easy --- counterinsurgencies are not.

Bet on the bolded option.
And technically, BRTD jumped the gun on the invasion bit by half a year. It wasn't a real invasion until mid-December.

More when I can...

[WMS]

Update, Part I.

*snippity snip snip snipperoo*
Newly discovered: Someone on Wiki is following this as closely as I am. Quite good. Has expanded by leaps and bounds, so hunt around. Check here and here for your Somali mapping needs.
Massive changes underway...
Gedo - Appears to be mix of Ethiopian and SICC-allied forces. Information sparse, but SICC forces proper seem to have retreated and Gedo is mostly secure. I think.
Bay, Bakool - Following severe fighting, mostly under TFG/Ethiopian control, with some SICC pockets.
Jubbada Dhexe - split between TFG/Ethiopian and SICC/SICC-allied forces, but mostly SICC. Expect more fighting here.
Jubbada Hoose - SICC control. In fact, Kismayo appears to be the Final Stronghold of the SICC. But remember, there was opposition to them there earlier this year as well. I predict heavy January fighting here.
Hiraan - Appears to be in the hands of the Ethiopians and the local warlord.
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, and Galguduud - In flux between SICC/ICU on one side and the Ethiopians/Galguduud (local political force) on the other. This could be changing right this second.
Mudug - One of the major battlefronts, with Ethiopian/Galguduud/Puntland forces having inflicted a major defeat on the SICC/ICU, who still hold some areas.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, still.
Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer - Sanaag and Sool both appear to have their western Districts held securely by Somaliland and their central and eastern Districts contested with Puntland.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed - Somaliland control, decisively. Let's just say that Somaliland and the SICC are mutually hostile, and that at one point it was feared Puntland might switch sides and make things nasty. Somaliland and the TFG aren't on great terms either, so things remain unsettled.

Since the last episode...mixing my sources here...mix of StrategyPage with Stratfor. More or less Dec. 13- Dec. 29. This episode's title: All Hell Breaks Loose: Ethiopia and the Islamic Courts Stop Pretending They're Not At War.

Where to begin in describing this...the Islamists assaulted the TFG/Ethiopians in Baidoa, triggering a three-pronged assault (from Baidoa; from Beledweyne; from Bandiradley - remember them?) by the Ethiopians and their allies which the Islamists could not withstand.

December 13- December 19, 2006: Political maneuvering between all sides. The deadline for the Ethiopians to leave was on the 19th. Oh, the flooding died down. This is important, because operations are no longer frozen. On the 16th the SICC/ICU claims the Ethiopians are in Hiraan Region (in light of  later events, they were right).

December 20, 2006: SICC/ICU attacks the TFG and Ethiopian positions around Baidoa, from their stronghold in Burhakaba.

December 21, 2006: Continued heavy fighting, with Ethiopian armored reinforcements arriving.

December 22, 2006: Continued heavy fighting. "Both sides are claiming to have inflicted hundreds of casualties on the other. But this is typical Somali bravado. There have been some casualties, and the Ethiopian troops appear to have stood fast against the raids of the Islamic Courts gunmen."

December 23, 2006: Both the SICC/ICU and the Ethiopians pour in reinforcements. The Islamists take heavy casualties and thus issue a call for jihad to Moslems to fight the infidels.

December 24, 2006: The Ethiopians declare war on the SICC/ICU, says their 15,000 or so troops will aid the TFG. "Meanwhile, Islamic Courts fighters began to abandon towns on the border, and these towns were occupied by Ethiopian troops, who handed over control to local clan chiefs who say they are now loyal to the Transitional Government. Meanwhile, Ethiopian warplanes began bombing airports held by the Islamic Courts (including the main one in Mogadishu), and concentrations of Islamic Courts fighters, and especially their vehicles." It is clear that the SICC/ICU has been repulsed.

"Western press sources quoted Ethiopia as claiming to have killed 600 Islamic Courts fighters in battles fought from December 21 through 24. The Islamic Courts claimed it has killed 400 Ethiopian troops. All reports stress that these are government claims and there is no independent verification. If the KIAs are even half of what is claimed, the firefights have pitted battalions against battalions, meaning the Ethiopian-TNG forces and the Islamic Courts forces are both deployed in at least brigade strength in the area of action (3000 to 5000 troops)."

December 25, 2006: Ethiopian forces, often with armored units, advance from Baidoa and from Beledweyne (Hiraan Region) toward Mogadishu, defeating all SICC/ICU forces they encounter. "The Somalis are tough, but they have been regularly defeated by Ethiopians for centuries. The Ethiopians are more effective in combat because they are better trained and led. Ethiopia has not conquered Somalia because there's nothing there worth having, and the Somalis can be troublesome." More Ethiopian airstrikes on SICC/ICU controlled airports.

December 26, 2006: "As expected, Ethiopian troops drove Islamic Courts fighters from several towns around Baidoa. The Islamic Courts can harass the Ethiopians, but they cannot stop them. The Islamic Courts don't have an army, but rather a collection of warlord and tribal militias. They also ahve several hundred foreign Islamic radicals. Some of these guys have military training, and they are much more motivated. Actually, many Somalis are motivated to resist Ethiopian invasions, but in a straight up fight, the Somalis are at a disadvantage. The Ethiopians are better trained, armed and led. While the Somalis have a reputation for being fierce warriors, the Ethiopians are that too, and for several thousand years they fought off all comers and got organized as well. But in the last half century, the Ethiopians have learned military discipline." Calls from the AU and AL for Ethiopia to leave are ignored, as expected.

"The Ethiopians are apparently going to beat on the Islamic Courts militias (a few thousand fighters, reinforced by a few thousand more patriotic volunteers), and give the anti-Islamic Courts militias (the UN recognized "Transitional Government") a chance to regain control of more of Somalia. However, the problem remains that the Islamic Courts gained control of most of Somalia because they brought law (Islamic law) and order (of a rather rough sort) to a country overrun by bandits and lawlessness since the early 1990s. The Ethiopians also have some serious logistical problems. They apparently have some 15,000 troops in the area, and supplying them is expensive. It's going to be tempting for the U.S. to try and help out the Ethiopians with cash, or other forms of aid. "

Stratfor had a major article on this: Open Warfare in Somalia. This war was not unexpected, at all. Highlights: "With the rains over and the ground drying up, the inevitable Ethiopian strike has now come. In the initial push, it appears the SICC front lines are starting to falter as Ethiopia brings better-trained and better-equipped military forces to bear. SICC forces reportedly have abandoned the central city of Beledweyne (initially taken by SICC forces in June) after fierce ground fighting with Ethiopian forces; Somalian transitional government forces, backed by Ethiopian equipment and fighters, have pushed back SICC forces in Idaale, Jawil and Bandiiradley.

But the initial push is not necessarily a reflection of the conflict to come. The SICC has not gained territory as much by fighting as by making arrangements with local warlords and village leaders, and by capitalizing on popular dissatisfaction with other warlords and the general lack of security and stability. The SICC forces are not structured for conventional military-to-military warfare; they lack heavy equipment, organization and training. However, they are structured for insurgency and guerrilla warfare -- and if Ethiopia is unwilling or unable to make the commitment of forces and time to ensure the security and stability in Somalia, the interim government certainly is in no position to make the same guarantees."

"There is one more immediate concern for the United States. The conflict in Somalia is serving as a proxy war for Ethiopia and Eritrea. As it continues, direct fighting between Addis Ababa and Asmara could break out. And this raises security concerns for U.S. operations in the Horn of Africa, which are based out of Djibouti, squeezed between Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia."

Also: "Forces loyal to Somalia's Supreme Islamic Courts Council retreated Dec. 26 more than 30 miles to the southeast from the town of Daynunay, south of the seat of the interim government in Baidoa, according to witnesses. Islamists also reportedly withdrew from their main stronghold in Bur Haqaba and headed toward the Somalian capital of Mogadishu."

[WMS]

Update, Part 2:

*snippity snip snip snipperoo*
Newly discovered: Someone on Wiki is following this as closely as I am. Quite good. Has expanded by leaps and bounds, so hunt around. Check here and here for your Somali mapping needs.
Massive changes underway...
Gedo - Appears to be mix of Ethiopian and SICC-allied forces. Information sparse, but SICC forces proper seem to have retreated and Gedo is mostly secure. I think.
Bay, Bakool - Following severe fighting, mostly under TFG/Ethiopian control, with some SICC pockets.
Jubbada Dhexe - split between TFG/Ethiopian and SICC/SICC-allied forces, but mostly SICC. Expect more fighting here.
Jubbada Hoose - SICC control. In fact, Kismayo appears to be the Final Stronghold of the SICC. But remember, there was opposition to them there earlier this year as well. I predict heavy January fighting here.
Hiraan - Appears to be in the hands of the Ethiopians and the local warlord.
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, and Galguduud - In flux between SICC/ICU on one side and the Ethiopians/Galguduud (local political force) on the other. This could be changing right this second.
Mudug - One of the major battlefronts, with Ethiopian/Galguduud/Puntland forces having inflicted a major defeat on the SICC/ICU, who still hold some areas.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, still.
Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer - Sanaag and Sool both appear to have their western Districts held securely by Somaliland and their central and eastern Districts contested with Puntland.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed - Somaliland control, decisively. Let's just say that Somaliland and the SICC are mutually hostile, and that at one point it was feared Puntland might switch sides and make things nasty. Somaliland and the TFG aren't on great terms either, so things remain unsettled.

Since the last episode...mixing my sources here...mix of StrategyPage with Stratfor. More or less Dec. 13- Dec. 29. This episode's title: All Hell Breaks Loose: Ethiopia and the Islamic Courts Stop Pretending They're Not At War.

Where to begin in describing this...the Islamists assaulted the TFG/Ethiopians in Baidoa, triggering a three-pronged assault (from Baidoa; from Beledweyne; from Bandiradley - remember them?) by the Ethiopians and their allies which the Islamists could not withstand.

---

December 27, 2006: "The better trained and armed Ethiopians have caused several thousand casualties among the Islamic Courts fighters. For all practical purposes, the Islamic Courts "strike force" (several thousand armed men in trucks) has been destroyed."

Also: "Islamist fighters in Somalia retreated from the strategic town of Jowhar on Dec. 27 after intense fighting with Ethiopian troops. The Islamist troops reportedly departed in vehicles, leaving the town unoccupied. Ethiopian and Somalian government troops entered Jowhar later in the day."

December 28, 2006: "Ethiopian troops have stood aside so that Somali gunmen representing the Transitional Government can enter Mogadishu. The surviving Islamic Courts fighters have fled south, from whence they came." This doesn't mean things are stable - can the TFG stay together? Oh, and this: "The U.S. was apparently providing the Ethiopians with satellite and aircraft photos of Islamic Courts positions. The U.S. has a large counter-terror force to the north, in Djibouti. The U.S. may be supplying Ethiopia with cash (to pay for all the gas the Ethiopians are burning in their operations). For years, the U.S. has been training Ethiopian troops for operations like this."

Also: "A number of reports from Somalian media Dec. 28 indicate that Ethiopian and Somalian interim government forces are close to retaking control of the capital, Mogadishu, from fighters loyal to the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC). The SICC began withdrawing from the city a week ago after clashing with intervening Ethiopian forces. The interim government now claims control of the Mogadishu airport and all major roads leading into the city."

And later this day: "Somalian interim government troops, backed by Ethiopian soldiers, entered the Somalian capital of Mogadishu on Dec. 28. Islamist fighters loyal to the Supreme Islamic Courts Council abandoned the city after holding it since June."

December 29, 2006: "The ease with which the Ethiopian army routed the Islamic Courts militia should not obscure the basic problems inherent in attempting to stabilize Somalia. The Transitional Government lacks any significant military power, relying on militiamen who are as unskilled as those of the Islamic Courts Movement (ICM)."

"Although the ICM may be down, it's by no means out. In a militia-on-militia conflict, it certainly can outshoot the Transitional Government. And while ICM militiamen can't stand up to Ethiopian troops in anything like a "fair fight," Islamist movements have certainly proven they don't necessarily want to "fight fair." While there seems to have been no instance of the ICM making use of suicide attacks, the presence of al Qaeda advisors certainly raises that possibility.

The optimal strategy for the Ethiopians may be to keep a relatively low profile. By holding their troops outside Mogadishu and other population centers, the Ethiopians can support the Transitional Government in its efforts to establish and maintain control, without over committing themselves, or stirring up problems with the rest of Africa. The African Union has already said Ethiopia should pull out of Somalia, reflecting the widespread African sensitivity over foreign "meddling," even in situations of great provocation. While it's militiamen may be no better than those of the ICM, and probably a good deal less suicide-prone, the Transitional Government may be able to establish a degree of authority through a judicious mixture of force (backed by occasional Ethiopian interventions), bribery, deal-making, and other traditional Somali practices. The break-away regions of Puntland, in the northeast, and Somaliland, in the northwest, seem to have managed quite well in this fashion."

Also: "Somalia's parliament will declare martial law for three months starting Dec. 29, Somalian Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi said. Mogadishu was taken from the Supreme Islamic Courts Council forces by the U.N.-backed transitional government and the Ethiopian military earlier in the day. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has pledged to withdraw troops within days or weeks."

*again waves to whoever is reading these updates*

[Јas]

*again waves to whoever is reading these updates*

*waves back*

Well done on your reporting so far, btw.

The last few days this story has been getting increasing coverage, I've noticed. Channel 4 (UK) have done some pieces on it and it was the main story on today's Irish Times.

Anyway, just dropped a line to say keep up the good work from one of your readership.

[12th Doctor]

Islamicists beware... he is packing heat in that suitcase.

[afleitch]

Kismayo falls

'Ali Mohamed Gedi, the Somali Prime Minister, offered an amnesty to the fighters fleeing south towards Kenya. But he said that leaders of the group and the al-Qaeda fighters believed to be among its ranks would face justice. Kenya vowed to seal its frontier to prevent the extremists escaping.'

Excellent result.

[WMS]

*again waves to whoever is reading these updates*

*waves back*

Well done on your reporting so far, btw.

The last few days this story has been getting increasing coverage, I've noticed. Channel 4 (UK) have done some pieces on it and it was the main story on today's Irish Times.

Anyway, just dropped a line to say keep up the good work from one of your readership.

Thank you and I'll try to keep things updated when I can. Yes, I know Kismayo just fell to the TFG/Ethiopians, but events move very fast at the moment...and to Super's picture.

A few questions:

Can the TFG hold together?

Will the ICU/SICC be able to conduce effective guerrilla warfare?

Will the Ethiopians spark a nationwide movement against them in Somalia?

If the TFG does hold together and the ICU/SICC doesn't conduct effective guerrilla warfare, will the TFG - led by the President of Puntland, remember - launch an invasion of their enemy Somaliland?

What will the Americans - now patrolling offshore off southern Somalia - do now, anyway?

All this, on the next installment of Horn of Africa: Somalian War!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Alas, WMS being gone has meant that this hasn't gotten the attention it deserves.  Things have heated up of late in Mogadishu.  With Somalia's charming multiple sided strife seeing over 320,000 people flee Mogadishu and over 130 dead civilians resulting from recent fighting.  On one side the principals are the Islamists and the Hawiye clan and on the other they are the Ethiopians and the TFG.  The Ethiopians claim their opponents are primarily Hawiye and have attempted to negotiate several ceasefires, which likely indicates they want out of Somalia, but not as badly as Reid wants the U.S. out of Iraq.  However, the TFG is insisting that they are only fighting Islamist insurgents.  Both sides so far have been content to let the Uganda led and manned AMISOM force keep watch over the port and airport, with the fighting mainly confined to residential areas of the city.  The U.S. ambassador to Kenya and Somalia is insisting that it's not an insurgency, just people who are trying to start an insurgency, sort of like how Iraq doesn't have a civil war, just people trying to start one.

It's been bad enough to actually get some minor press coverage here in the States, but I haven't seen anything more detailed on TV than people are shooting at each other there.

[minionofmidas]

Oh Nate come back!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

yeah, where'd he go?