Coolidge and Johnson, Would They Ever Be President?

[Lincoln Republican]

Picking up from an earlier thread by WalterMitty about if Vice President Teddy Roosevelt would ever have become President if William McKinley had not been assassinated, please consider the following......

If Warren Harding had not died in office, would Vice President Calvin Coolidge have ever become President?

If John Kennedy had not been assassinated, would Vice President Lyndon Johnson have ever become President?

Please discuss.  

[WalterMitty]

the answer for coolidge is definitely no.

johnson probably not.  however, he had a lot of contacts in the democrat party.  he was a master of 'horse trading'.  it is certainly possible he could have won the democrat nomination at some point.  would he be elected in the general?  likely not.

[Dr. Cynic]

I doubt that. Coolidge was lucky, but I don't believe he would've been political enough to win an election against a strong candidate. He was just particularly lucky that his strongest opponent was Bob LaFollette, who was running an underfunded campaign.

I also think Johnson was just not a very smart politician. He had the knack to do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Either way, I don't think they would be elected.

[Boris]

Assuminng Kennedy lives and wins a second term, Johnson does not win the 1968 nomination. Johnson would have had little support from Kenendy, who disliked him, and Vietnam probably would've divided the country in the same manner. The only way Johnson could've won the 1968 nomination is getting the support of the big party bosses, the same way Humphrey did.

[WalterMitty]

Assuminng Kennedy lives and wins a second term, Johnson does not win the 1968 nomination. Johnson would have had little support from Kenendy, who disliked him, and Vietnam probably would've divided the country in the same manner. The only way Johnson could've won the 1968 nomination is getting the support of the big party bosses, the same way Humphrey did.

it wasnt even certain that lbj would have been kennedy's running mate in 64.

[skybridge]

Assuminng Kennedy lives and wins a second term, Johnson does not win the 1968 nomination. Johnson would have had little support from Kenendy, who disliked him, and Vietnam probably would've divided the country in the same manner. The only way Johnson could've won the 1968 nomination is getting the support of the big party bosses, the same way Humphrey did.

it wasnt even certain that lbj would have been kennedy's running mate in 64.

And Vietnam might have turned out differently had Kennedy been in office until 1969.

[True Democrat]

Assuminng Kennedy lives and wins a second term, Johnson does not win the 1968 nomination. Johnson would have had little support from Kenendy, who disliked him, and Vietnam probably would've divided the country in the same manner. The only way Johnson could've won the 1968 nomination is getting the support of the big party bosses, the same way Humphrey did.

it wasnt even certain that lbj would have been kennedy's running mate in 64.

And Vietnam might have turned out differently had Kennedy been in office until 1969.

No Kennedy assassination likely means no events that eventually lead to the McGovern Democratic nomination rules.  This means more emphasis on the delegates still, which Kennedy would have more control of.  Kennedy sways the delegates to vote against Johnson.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If LBJ is kicked off the ticket for 1964 and Vietnam causes problems similar to OTL, he might well be able to mount a successful charge for the nomination.  Be harder for him to win the general election, but not as hard a time as Triple H had.

Here's a likely map assuming a swing of 3% of Nixon's votes and 1% of Wallace's to the Dems.

Nixon: 247
Johnson: 246
Wallace: 45

[kashifsakhan]

Coolidge most definietely would not have become president.

However i think LBJ would have done it had Kennedy never become president.

What other presidents can u think of who may have never become president if things had been a bit different.

I think of 2

Millard Filmore
Gerald Ford.

[True Democrat]

With Coolidge it's impossible to tell.  Who knows what could happen in the smoke filled room.