state by state prediction
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2024, 09:41:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  state by state prediction
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: state by state prediction  (Read 10806 times)
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,572


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 09, 2004, 09:12:10 PM »

alabama:
bush: 58%
kerry: 40%
other: 2%

alaska:
bush: 59%
kerry: 32%
other: 9%

arizona:
bush 50%
kerry: 47%
other: 3%

arkansas:
bush: 51%
kerry: 47%
other: 2%

califronia:
kerry: 52%
bush: 45%
other: 3%

colorado:
bush: 51%
kerry: 46%
other: 3%

connecticut:
kerry: 57%
bush: 40%
other: 3%

delaware:
kerry: 52%
bush: 46%
other: 2%

dc:
kerry: 88%
bush: 8%
other: 4%

florida:
bush: 50%
kerry: 47%
other: 3%

georgia:
bush: 55%
kerry: 43%
other: 2%

hawaii:
kerry: 58%
bush: 38%
other: 4%

idaho:
bush: 70%
kerry: 26%
other: 4%

illinois:
kerry: 54%
bush: 43%
other: 3%

indiana:
bush: 55%
kerry: 43%
other: 2%

iowa:
kerry: 50%
bush: 48%
other: 2%

kansas:
bush: 57%
kerry: 40%
other: 3%

kentucky:
bush: 56%
kerry: 42%
other: 2%

louisiana:
bush:  51%
kerry:  47%
other: 2%

maine:
kerry: 49%
bush: 46%
other: 5%

maryland:
kerry: 56%
bush: 41%
pther: 3%

massachusetts:
kerry: 61%
bush: 34%
other: 5%

michigan:
kerry: 50%
bush: 48%
other: 2%

minnesota:
kerry: 49%
bush: 47%
other: 4%

mississippi:
bush: 58%
kerry: 40%
other: 2%

missouri:
bush: 50%
kerry: 48%
other: 2%

montana:
bush: 57%
kerry: 38%
other: 5%

nebraska:
bush: 61%
kerry: 36%
other: 3%

nevada:
bush: 50%
kerry: 47%
other: 3%

new hampshire:
kerry: 49%
bush: 48%
other: 3%

new jersey:
kerry: 54%
bush: 43%
other: 3%

new mexico:
kerry: 49%
bush: 48%
other: 3%

new york:
kerry: 61%
bush: 36%
other: 3%

north carolina:
bush: 53%
kerry: 45%
other: 2%

north dakota:
bush: 60%
kerry: 37%
other: 3%

ohio:
bush: 49%
kerry: 48%
other: 3%

oklahoma:
bush: 60%
kerry: 38%
other: 2%

oregon:
bush: 48%
kerry: 47%
other: 5%

pennsylvania:
bush: 50%
kerry: 48%
other: 2%

rhode island:
kerry: 63%
bush: 33%
other: 4%

south carolina:
bush: 57%
kerry: 41%
other: 2%

south dakota:
bush: 58%
kerry: 39%
other: 3%

tennessee:
bush: 52%
kerry: 46%
other: 2%

texas:
bush: 58%
kerry: 40%
other: 2%

utah:
bush: 70%
kerry: 26%
other: 4%

vermont:
kerry: 54%
bush: 42%
other: 4%

virginia:
bush: 51%
kerry: 46%
other: 3%

washington:
kerry: 51%
bush: 45%
other: 4%

west va:
bush: 50%
kerry: 48%
other: 2%

wisconsin:
kerry: 49%
bush: 47%
other: 4%

wyoming:
bush: 69%
kerry: 28%
other: 3%
Logged
ilikeverin
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,410
Timor-Leste


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2004, 09:26:44 PM »



Bush/Cheney: 302
Kerry/???: 236
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2004, 09:39:42 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2004, 09:40:30 PM by Lunar »

States Purple heart% -RED
States <5% -BLUE



He has the gap closing in a lot of states.  Maine, Michigan, Missouri etc.
Logged
12th Doctor
supersoulty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,584
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2004, 10:23:03 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2004, 10:23:21 PM by supersoulty »

States Purple heart% -RED
States <5% -BLUE



He has the gap closing in a lot of states.  Maine, Michigan, Missouri etc.

Hey, Lunar, how do you put two things side-by-side in you signature?
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2004, 10:29:02 PM »

Make sure the images aren't too wide and simply put the img tags back to back.

Quote this post if you want to see it exactly.

Link

Logged
Reds4
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 789


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2004, 10:58:07 PM »

Walter, interesting predictions.. A few I'd change
Maine- will go for Kerry by probably 10%.
Michigan- Kerry by about 6%
Delaware- Kerry by 11%
New Mexico- Bush by 2%
New Hampshire- Kerry by 5%
Tennessee- Bush by 10%
Pennsylvania- Kerry by 3%

 Anybody else with comments or there own changes to Walter's state by state predictions?
Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,562


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2004, 11:31:29 PM »

Walter, interesting predictions.. A few I'd change

New Mexico- Bush by 2%

 Anybody else with comments or there own changes to Walter's state by state predictions?

Yes, that's pretty much what I'm predicting for New Mexico, but in a range of 1-2%. Let's hope there's no election errors delaying things this time! Smiley
Logged
Shira
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,858


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2004, 11:41:16 PM »

WalterMiti's prediction  is biased by approximately 1%-2%

The more realistic outcomes in my view are:

alabama:
bush: 57%
kerry: 41%
other: 2%

alaska:
bush: 58%
kerry: 33%
other: 9%

arizona:
bush 48%
kerry: 49%
other: 3%

arkansas:
bush: 49%
kerry: 49%
other: 2%

califronia:
kerry: 53%
bush: 44%
other: 3%

colorado:
bush: 50%
kerry: 47%
other: 3%

connecticut:
kerry: 59%
bush: 38%
other: 3%

delaware:
kerry: 53%
bush: 45%
other: 2%

dc:
kerry: 88%
bush: 8%
other: 4%

florida:
bush: 48%
kerry: 49%
other: 3%

georgia:
bush: 55%
kerry: 43%
other: 2%

hawaii:
kerry: 59%
bush: 37%
other: 4%

idaho:
bush: 69%
kerry: 27%
other: 4%

illinois:
kerry: 55%
bush: 42%
other: 3%

indiana:
bush: 55%
kerry: 43%
other: 2%

iowa:
kerry: 51%
bush: 47%
other: 2%

kansas:
bush: 57%
kerry: 40%
other: 3%

kentucky:
bush: 56%
kerry: 42%
other: 2%

louisiana:
bush:  50%
kerry:  48%
other: 2%

maine:
kerry: 51%
bush: 44%
other: 5%

maryland:
kerry: 57%
bush: 40%
pther: 3%

massachusetts:
kerry: 62%
bush: 33%
other: 5%

michigan:
kerry: 52%
bush: 46%
other: 2%

minnesota:
kerry: 50%
bush: 46%
other: 4%

mississippi:
bush: 58%
kerry: 40%
other: 2%

missouri:
bush: 50%
kerry: 48%
other: 2%

montana:
bush: 57%
kerry: 38%
other: 5%

nebraska:
bush: 61%
kerry: 36%
other: 3%

nevada:
bush: 48%
kerry: 49%
other: 3%

new hampshire:
kerry: 51%
bush: 46%
other: 3%

new jersey:
kerry: 56%
bush: 41%
other: 3%

new mexico:
kerry: 50%
bush: 47%
other: 3%

new york:
kerry: 62%
bush: 35%
other: 3%

north carolina:
bush: 52%
kerry: 46%
other: 2%

north dakota:
bush: 60%
kerry: 37%
other: 3%

ohio:
bush: 49%
kerry: 49%
other: 2%

oklahoma:
bush: 60%
kerry: 38%
other: 2%

oregon:
bush: 47%
kerry: 48%
other: 5%

pennsylvania:
bush: 48%
kerry: 50%
other: 2%

rhode island:
kerry: 65%
bush: 31%
other: 4%

south carolina:
bush: 57%
kerry: 41%
other: 2%

south dakota:
bush: 60%
kerry: 37%
other: 3%

tennessee:
bush: 50%
kerry: 48%
other: 2%

texas:
bush: 60%
kerry: 38%
other: 2%

utah:
bush: 70%
kerry: 26%
other: 4%

vermont:
kerry: 54%
bush: 42%
other: 4%

virginia:
bush: 49%
kerry: 48%
other: 3%

washington:
kerry: 52%
bush: 44%
other: 4%

west va:
bush: 49%
kerry: 49%
other: 2%

wisconsin:
kerry: 49%
bush: 47%
other: 4%

wyoming:
bush: 71%
kerry: 26%
other: 3
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2004, 11:46:16 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2004, 11:47:51 PM by Lunar »

Kerry wins Arizona and Nevada but it's tied in Ohio?  You also have Tennessee too close at Bush +2 and Virginia too close at Bush +1 considering the other states.  If it's tied in Ohio then the whole election is pretty close (50-47 max), but then you have Virginia and Tennessee as tossups?

Since we can't use 2000 (Al Gore's homestate) to measure Tennessee, we can see that Clinton won the nation by 9% but only won TN by 2%.  Pretty significant.
Logged
classical liberal
RightWingNut
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 10, 2004, 12:05:09 AM »

State   Kerry   Bush   Other   
AL   45.94   53.22   0.84
AK   40.99   55.37   3.64
AZ   50.90   47.70   1.40
AR   50.57   48.06   1.37
CA   60.52   38.40   1.08
CO   50.89   47.50   1.61
CT   63.58   35.19   1.23
DE   60.75   38.65   0.60
DC   93.65   5.70   0.65
FL   52.21   46.72   1.07
GA   46.75   51.42   1.83
HI   64.92   34.21   0.87
ID   33.34   63.92   2.74
IL   60.04   39.33   0.63
IN   45.10   53.40   1.50
IA   54.02   44.97   1.01
KS   43.86   54.79   1.35
KY   46.12   53.25   0.63
LA   49.29   49.30   1.41
ME   58.04   40.72   1.24
MD   62.47   36.93   0.60
MA   69.47   29.25   1.28
MI   56.52   42.89   0.59
MN   56.36   42.25   1.39
MS   44.77   54.37   0.86
MO   51.96   47.17   0.87
MT   42.56   55.19   2.25
NE   40.02   59.00   0.98
NV   51.69   46.27   2.04
NH   53.95   44.82   1.23
NJ   62.35   37.04   0.61
NM   54.71   44.60   0.69
NY   67.04   31.98   0.98
NC   46.45   52.78   0.77
ND   39.60   57.41   2.99
OH   53.72   45.60   0.68
OK   41.68   57.06   1.26
OR   55.25   43.27   1.48
PA   54.45   44.68   0.87
RI   70.36   28.66   0.98
SC   45.63   53.58   0.79
SD   40.81   57.05   2.14
TN   51.48   47.90   0.62
TX   43.38   56.05   0.57
UT   34.24   63.58   2.18
VT   60.80   37.45   1.75
VA   49.86   49.22   0.92
WA   57.52   41.31   1.17
WV   55.17   43.99   0.84
WI   54.70   44.36   0.94
WY   33.07   64.51   2.42

**Assumes Nader is not a factor and that turnout for GOP is suppressed due to a lack of GOTV efforts from anyone on the right besides the actual Bush campaign.
Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2004, 01:04:37 AM »

RightWingNut is way too optimistic on PA (yes supersoulty, I will give it to you).  I'll still say though Kerry by 7.  Bush has slid in the Southeast, Teresa will neutralize Pittsburgh, and maybe Bush may pick off a few Gore areas in Western PA, but it will not be enough to overcome the more urbanized parts of PA.  To illustrate my point:

1999 Philly mayoral election: Street(D) by 1%
Katz got boost from noramlly Democratic whites
2000 Pennsylvania Presidential: Gore by 4%

2003 Philly mayoral election: Street(D) by 20%
Katz again kept it well, close
2004 PA Election (Prediction): Kerry by 7%

And this is coming from a "Katz Democrat".
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2004, 02:30:29 AM »

alabama:
bush: 58%
kerry: 40%
other: 2%

alaska:
bush: 59%
kerry: 32%
other: 9%

arizona:
bush 50%
kerry: 47%
other: 3%

arkansas:
bush: 51%
kerry: 47%
other: 2%

califronia:
kerry: 52%
bush: 45%
other: 3%

colorado:
bush: 51%
kerry: 46%
other: 3%

connecticut:
kerry: 57%
bush: 40%
other: 3%

delaware:
kerry: 52%
bush: 46%
other: 2%

dc:
kerry: 88%
bush: 8%
other: 4%

florida:
bush: 50%
kerry: 47%
other: 3%

georgia:
bush: 55%
kerry: 43%
other: 2%

hawaii:
kerry: 58%
bush: 38%
other: 4%

idaho:
bush: 70%
kerry: 26%
other: 4%

illinois:
kerry: 54%
bush: 43%
other: 3%

indiana:
bush: 55%
kerry: 43%
other: 2%

iowa:
kerry: 50%
bush: 48%
other: 2%

kansas:
bush: 57%
kerry: 40%
other: 3%

kentucky:
bush: 56%
kerry: 42%
other: 2%

louisiana:
bush:  51%
kerry:  47%
other: 2%

maine:
kerry: 49%
bush: 46%
other: 5%

maryland:
kerry: 56%
bush: 41%
pther: 3%

massachusetts:
kerry: 61%
bush: 34%
other: 5%

michigan:
kerry: 50%
bush: 48%
other: 2%

minnesota:
kerry: 49%
bush: 47%
other: 4%

mississippi:
bush: 58%
kerry: 40%
other: 2%

missouri:
bush: 50%
kerry: 48%
other: 2%

montana:
bush: 57%
kerry: 38%
other: 5%

nebraska:
bush: 61%
kerry: 36%
other: 3%

nevada:
bush: 50%
kerry: 47%
other: 3%

new hampshire:
kerry: 49%
bush: 48%
other: 3%

new jersey:
kerry: 54%
bush: 43%
other: 3%

new mexico:
kerry: 49%
bush: 48%
other: 3%

new york:
kerry: 61%
bush: 36%
other: 3%

north carolina:
bush: 53%
kerry: 45%
other: 2%

north dakota:
bush: 60%
kerry: 37%
other: 3%

ohio:
bush: 49%
kerry: 48%
other: 3%

oklahoma:
bush: 60%
kerry: 38%
other: 2%

oregon:
bush: 48%
kerry: 47%
other: 5%

pennsylvania:
bush: 50%
kerry: 48%
other: 2%

rhode island:
kerry: 63%
bush: 33%
other: 4%

south carolina:
bush: 57%
kerry: 41%
other: 2%

south dakota:
bush: 58%
kerry: 39%
other: 3%

tennessee:
bush: 52%
kerry: 46%
other: 2%

texas:
bush: 58%
kerry: 40%
other: 2%

utah:
bush: 70%
kerry: 26%
other: 4%

vermont:
kerry: 54%
bush: 42%
other: 4%

virginia:
bush: 51%
kerry: 46%
other: 3%

washington:
kerry: 51%
bush: 45%
other: 4%

west va:
bush: 50%
kerry: 48%
other: 2%

wisconsin:
kerry: 49%
bush: 47%
other: 4%

wyoming:
bush: 69%
kerry: 28%
other: 3%

I would agree with this accept for NM, IA, WS, and NH - Bush will win all these by a percentage point more or less.  Also I think Bush will get 51% here in Missouri.  Lastly, it may be a little closer in MI and MN than you have.
Logged
struct310
Rookie
**
Posts: 246


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2004, 03:48:18 AM »

Alright I have to stop this Arizona nonsense once and for all.  On the national scale people just like to make AZ a swing state since there are hispanics.  Remember that hispanics give unusually strong support to Bush.  The only democrat to have won here since well a long time was Bill Clinton because he was a centrist and won by a comfortable margin.  Kerry is liberal to the core.  There is a 5 pt registration advantage for republicans(not counting fake 3pt thing due to dem primaries, it will go back to normal for the republican primaries on sep 7th).  And the independents lean republican here.  Bush will win this state by 8% this time around.  He is popular and we like his economic policies.
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,572


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2004, 06:34:30 AM »

i should note that in my predictions i had a 'generic' type running mate for kerry in mind.  (think tom vilsack)
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2004, 12:35:16 PM »

Arizona didn't even give Bush 51% in 2000. It's considered a swing state for that reason. And I'll believe this Bush is winning Hispanics stuff when I see it. I've heard the GOP claim countless times they're starting to win over blacks.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2004, 12:36:30 PM »

Kerry wins Arizona and Nevada but it's tied in Ohio?  You also have Tennessee too close at Bush +2 and Virginia too close at Bush +1 considering the other states.  If it's tied in Ohio then the whole election is pretty close (50-47 max), but then you have Virginia and Tennessee as tossups?

Nevada was almost as close as Ohio last time, and since it's growing and changing fast that's certainly possible.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 10, 2004, 12:44:38 PM »

Arizona didn't even give Bush 51% in 2000. It's considered a swing state for that reason. And I'll believe this Bush is winning Hispanics stuff when I see it. I've heard the GOP claim countless times they're starting to win over blacks.

I've no hard evidence... BUT Bush *has* slipped up badly with lower income whites recently. And yet his overall US-wide poll numbers are similer to the 2000 results.
Ergo he must have gained *somewhere*...
Logged
struct310
Rookie
**
Posts: 246


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2004, 12:50:06 PM »

Bush won AZ by over 6% the last time.  8% is not unreasonable.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 10, 2004, 12:59:45 PM »

and Nader took 3%
Logged
Reds4
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 789


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2004, 02:09:07 PM »

RightWingNut's numbers are very favorable to Kerry in some places.  Even some states that will be Bush blowouts he has pretty close. Alabama at less than an 8 point lead for Bush. Why? Kerry won't win Ohio by 8, he might win it, but it would have to be like 3 or 4 at most.
Kerry up 14 in MN is too high, up 12 in OR is too high, Kerry up more than 25 in New Jersey? I'm not one that says Bush will win NJ, but he probably loses it by 12 or 13.  RightWing, Are you wanting Kerry to win or are you supporting Bush and just very pessimistic?
Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2004, 02:20:25 PM »

RightWingNut's numbers are very favorable to Kerry in some places.  Even some states that will be Bush blowouts he has pretty close. Alabama at less than an 8 point lead for Bush. Why? Kerry won't win Ohio by 8, he might win it, but it would have to be like 3 or 4 at most.
Kerry up 14 in MN is too high, up 12 in OR is too high, Kerry up more than 25 in New Jersey? I'm not one that says Bush will win NJ, but he probably loses it by 12 or 13.  RightWing, Are you wanting Kerry to win or are you supporting Bush and just very pessimistic?

Your defintiely right about NJ.  In fact if you go to some parts, you'll think you're in the South.  Interior Southern New Jersey (The Pine Barrens) are in fact VERY conservative.  I remember driving from Philadelphia down to Wildwood and making a wrong turn on to one of the county roads.  One of these towns had Confederate flags hanging with a sign saying "Church barbecue cookout"  and this is NEW JERSEY!!  I kid you not.  There is no way NJ will go Kerry by 25.  I thought 16 was high the last time and in fact due to 9-11, it may be quite a but lower, but not on Bush's radar.  Though I must say a lot of New Yorkers and Philadelphians have poured into New Jersey since the last election.  There are many conclusions you can draw from that.    
Logged
John
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,088


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2004, 03:57:22 PM »

HERE ARE MY
AL
BUSH: 56%
KERRY: 35%
AK
BUSH: 59%
KERRY: 23%
AZ
BUSH: 53%
KERRY: 46%
AR
BUSH: 51%
KERRY: 48%
CA
KERRY: 56%
BUSH: 45%
CO
BUSH: 55%
KERRY: 45%
CT
KERRY: 60%
BUSH: 33%
DE
BUSH: 50%
KERRY: 49%
D.C
KERRY: 89%
BUSH: 9%
FL
BUSH: 49%
KERRY: 46%
GA
BUSH: 53%
KERRY: 47%
HI
KERRY: 58%
BUSH: 30%
ID
BUSH: 66%
KERRY: 23%
IL
KERRY: 56%
BUSH: 40%
IN
BUSH: 57%
KERRY: 40%
IOWA
BUSH: 49%
KERRY: 47%
KS
BUSH: 59%
KERRY: 20%
KY
BUSH: 55%
KERRY: 43%
LA
KERRY: 50%
BUSH: 49%
MD
KERRY: 60%
BUSH: 22%
MA
KERRY: 80%
BUSH: 19%
MI
BUSH: 49%
KERRY: 48%
MN
KERRY: 49%
BUSH: 46%
MO
BUSH: 51%
KERRY: 46%
MT
BUSH: 70%
KERRY: 13%
NV
KERRY: 50%
BUSH: 49%
NH
KERRY: 49%
BUSH: 48%
NJ
KERRY: 56%
BUSH: 46%
NM
BUSH: 49%
KERRY: 47%
NY
KERRY: 60%
BUSH: 36%
NC
BUSH: 49%
KERRY: 37%
ND
BUSH: 60%
KERRY: 37%
OHIO
BUSH: 50%
KERRY: 49%
OK
BUSH: 66%
KERRY: 23%
OR
BUSH: 48%
KERRY: 47%
PA
BUSH: 49%
KERRY: 46%
RI
KERRY: 70%
BUSH: 20%
SC
BUSH: 56%
KERRY: 40%
SD
BUSH: 56%
KERRY: 46%
TN
BUSH: 53%
KERRY: 45%
TX
BUSH: 80%
KERRY: 20%
UT
BUSH: 69%
KERRY: 23%
VT
KERRY: 50%
BUSH: 40%
VA
BUSH: 50%
KERRY: 48%
WA
KERRY: 49%
BUSH: 41%
WV
KERRY: 51%
BUSH: 47%
WI
BUSH: 49%
KERRY: 48%
WY
BUSH: 66%
KERRY: 23%
ME
KERRY: 58%
BUSH: 40%
NE
BUSH: 69%
KERRY: 29%
TOTAL
BUSH: 325 (52%)
KERRY: 213 (48%)

Logged
classical liberal
RightWingNut
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 10, 2004, 04:14:04 PM »

RightWingNut's numbers are very favorable to Kerry in some places.  Even some states that will be Bush blowouts he has pretty close. Alabama at less than an 8 point lead for Bush. Why? Kerry won't win Ohio by 8, he might win it, but it would have to be like 3 or 4 at most.
Kerry up 14 in MN is too high, up 12 in OR is too high, Kerry up more than 25 in New Jersey? I'm not one that says Bush will win NJ, but he probably loses it by 12 or 13.  RightWing, Are you wanting Kerry to win or are you supporting Bush and just very pessimistic?

read the note at the bottom.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 10, 2004, 05:35:57 PM »

John's map:

Logged
Reds4
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 789


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 10, 2004, 07:00:12 PM »

John, Michigan can't go to Bush, I think he loses by 6 or 7 there. You see Bush losing Louisiana and winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? Texas 80-20?? bush is popular there, but no way he gets more than 60% or so. I hope you're map is correct come election day though.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.069 seconds with 13 queries.