Lopez Obrador wins by a landslide in 2006 mexican elections

[KillerPollo]

Picture that scenario... What would have happened through the years until 2012?

WOuld we enjoy the same rights we do here in the Fox admin? or would Peje tighten his grip on his ppl? would NAFTA even survive? what would the issue on immigration be like?? would the US be as friendly as it is now?


hmmmm

[MaC]

Please learn to spell.  Peje would be more likely to say 'screw the US' and invite Brazilians, Columbians, and others from the poorer areas to enjoy in re-introducing socialism to Mexico.

Of course, this isn't really history yet-so excuse my assumptions since the 2006 still riles up emotions

[ag]

NAFTA wouldn't be going anywhere, that is fairly certain.  I don't think there would be much foreign policy to speak about. There would be some anti-US retoric on occasion, and, may be, an occasional trip to Cuba, but overall it would be a very inward-looking presidency.

Mainly, it would result in much stronger positions of Mexico's domestic monopolies, especially those based in Mexico City (not in the hostile-to-him Monterrey - companies like Cemex might be mistreated).  US businesses in Mexico would have to operate to a much greater degree than now in alliances with local billionaires. Carlos Slim might become the richest guy in the world very soon (though, he might do that anyway). One industry to face a particularly hostile treatment would be banking (now overwhelmingly in foreign hands).

During much of the first 4 years of administration there would be massive infrastructure construction projects going up throughout the country (roads, ports, power stations, etc.). Some time after 2010, may be as late as 2012 there would be a major crisis - increasing inflation, currency depreciation, difficulties with debt repayment. At that point you might start seing government hostility turning to local business as well. I wouldn't be surprised if some banks got nationalized.

Domestically, the governing party would try to recreate the old PRI machine (it would be helped in this by being able to amalgamate most of the remainder of the PRI itself). Whether it would be successful would depend on the depth of the 2012 crisis.

Overall, if I had to guess what this presidency would be like, I'd look at that of Lopez Portillo (1976-82).