Survey USA: Blagojevich(D) lead by 11 over Topinka(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Illinois Governor by Survey USA on 2006-07-24

Summary: D: 45%, R: 34%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MissCatholic]

can we add to this to pennsylvania as another safe democrat state barring mistakes.

that would mean we are down to five.

maine
oregon
wisconsin
michigan
iowa

[muon2]

The head-to-head numbers are consistent with other recent results. The most interesting feature is the huge number of "other" but small "undecided". It's unusual since there are objections pending to all three possible "other" candidates, and it's unlikely that any of them were specifically in the mind of most of those polled. All three are generally unknown except in very narrow circles.

The numbers for "other" are largest in the collar counties and downstate, and may well be the result of the negative ad campaign against Topinka all summer. The lack of "undecided" indicates that these are not votes that will go to the incumbent, but will either stay home or break in favor of the challenger. The smaller totals of "other" in Chicago and Cook county would more likely break for the incumbent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know an incumbant just like Jon Kyl isn't safe until he reaches between 53 and 55% of the vote. As far as that comparison to Maria Cantwell, in May, she reached that magic 53% of the vote.