My Prediction

[Josh/Devilman88]

I would have to say. Bush will take all the toss-ups states.

[ATFFL]

The unemployment rate has been steady all year, dipping only .1%.   In terms of raw numbers there are a little over 400,000 less unemployed people as compared to a year ago, so it is dropping.

My source:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[Mort from NewYawk]

The 346-192 prediction is an ABSOLUTE BEST CASE SCENARIO for Bush.  If Bush wins every state he possibly could, in his wildest wet dreams.  In fact, I think it's 1 EV too heavy, I don't know where you think Bush is gonna pick up an EV in Maine.

Well, ok, fine.  Here is the absolute best case scenario for Kerry.  Not that I really think this will happen, mind you, but its just as likely as the prediction that started this thread.

Fritz, I agree with your absolute best case scenario for Kerry (and I'll go with BRTD's suggestion that you throw in LA, VA, and NC). I also agree with your assessment that mine is the absolute best case for Bush (and I'll add in WA and MN).

I don't want to think of what catastrophe could befall Bush for your scenario to pan out, but I'm sure I could come up with some.

However, I'm predicting that Bush will get his best case scenario, for all the reasons I stated in my opening post. A 3-4% shift of all voters from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004 is not unrealistic when you realize that Gore in 2000 was a presumptive moderate, a sitting Vice President under a popular President, supposedly to the right of his party on foreign affairs. Kerry is a Senator from Massachussetts with a liberal voting record.

Look it's just a prediction, and I admit I'm being bold, but I'm predicting that 2004 will be the year that the Reagan Democrats come home to roost, and by home I mean with the candidate who most resembles Reagan. If I'm wrong you can say I was nuts all along. If I'm right I can be entertained watching the Democrats try to get it into their collective confused state of mind that nominating a Mondale, Dukakis, or Kerry is not the way to win the Presidency. When they finally realize this is when I may come home to roost.

Also, look at the statewide maps of Maine the last time the Democrats had candidates from the left wing of the party. The northern part of the state (CD 2) is littered with blue.

[Smash255]

The 346-192 prediction is an ABSOLUTE BEST CASE SCENARIO for Bush.  If Bush wins every state he possibly could, in his wildest wet dreams.  In fact, I think it's 1 EV too heavy, I don't know where you think Bush is gonna pick up an EV in Maine.

Well, ok, fine.  Here is the absolute best case scenario for Kerry.  Not that I really think this will happen, mind you, but its just as likely as the prediction that started this thread.

Fritz, I agree with your absolute best case scenario for Kerry (and I'll go with BRTD's suggestion that you throw in LA, VA, and NC). I also agree with your assessment that mine is the absolute best case for Bush (and I'll add in WA and MN).

I don't want to think of what catastrophe could befall Bush for your scenario to pan out, but I'm sure I could come up with some.

However, I'm predicting that Bush will get his best case scenario, for all the reasons I stated in my opening post. A 3-4% shift of all voters from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004 is not unrealistic when you realize that Gore in 2000 was a presumptive moderate, a sitting Vice President under a popular President, supposedly to the right of his party on foreign affairs. Kerry is a Senator from Massachussetts with a liberal voting record.

Look it's just a prediction, and I admit I'm being bold, but I'm predicting that 2004 will be the year that the Reagan Democrats come home to roost, and by home I mean with the candidate who most resembles Reagan. If I'm wrong you can say I was nuts all along. If I'm right I can be entertained watching the Democrats try to get it into their collective confused state of mind that nominating a Mondale, Dukakis, or Kerry is not the way to win the Presidency. When they finally realize this is when I may come home to roost.

Also, look at the statewide maps of Maine the last time the Democrats had candidates from the left wing of the party. The northern part of the state (CD 2) is littered with blue.

Granted Kerry is more liberal than the  campaign Gore ran on in 2000, but Bush is also seen as much more of a Conservative now than he was in 2000.

[classical liberal]

Also, look at the statewide maps of Maine the last time the Democrats had candidates from the left wing of the party. The northern part of the state (CD 2) is littered with blue.

redistricting

[??????????]

I agree with Morth. Here is a list of Democrats that have run since 1964 and about how they fell.

Southern Moderate Democrats -

LBJ - Won
Carter - Won
Clinton - Won


Northern "Liberal" Democrats

Hubert Humphery - Lost
McGovern - Lost
Mondale - Lost
Dukakis - Lost
Kerry - ??

Southern  "Liberal" Democrats

Gore - Barely lost.

Are we seeing a trend here? Just a thought.

[they don't love you like i love you]

LBJ wasn't a moderate, I mean I absolutely hate the guy, but Great Society?

[??????????]

LBJ wasn't a moderate, I mean I absolutely hate the guy, but Great Society?

I wasn't exactly sure but I know he was a southerner and Democrats win with Southerners running. History proves it, why mess with success?

[Fritz]

44 years ago, a certain liberal Democrat from Massachussetts by the name of John F. Kennedy won the White House.  It can happen.

Even if Mort is right, and Bush wins because of the factors he cites, there is no way he will win that big.

Ok fine, Kerry's a liberal, but Bush is an ultra-conservative the likes of we have not seen ever before.  The left is highly motivated to oust him.  The Democrats did not hate Bush Sr., or Reagan, as much as this Bush.  There is a lot of ABB sentiment out there, and it is a strong force that Bush will have to reckon with.  And I think a lot of the Nader voters are going to realize that is not a luxury we can afford this time around.

Also, Bush did not win the popular vote in 2000.  I don't say that to be a whiner, I accepted a long time ago that Bush won by the rules.  But a President elected under those circumstances has never managed to get re-elected.  I suppose there is a first time for everything, but lets just say I consider it unlikely.

Realistically, I think Kerry will win with somewhere between 270 and 290 EV.  Or maybe Bush will win, within that same margin, but the odds are with Kerry.

[??????????]

44 years ago, a certain liberal Democrat from Massachussetts by the name of John F. Kennedy won the White House.  It can happen.

Even if Mort is right, and Bush wins because of the factors he cites, there is no way he will win that big.

Ok fine, Kerry's a liberal, but Bush is an ultra-conservative the likes of we have not seen ever before.  The left is highly motivated to oust him.  The Democrats did not hate Bush Sr., or Reagan, as much as this Bush.  There is a lot of ABB sentiment out there, and it is a strong force that Bush will have to reckon with.  And I think a lot of the Nader voters are going to realize that is not a luxury we can afford this time around.

Also, Bush did not win the popular vote in 2000.  I don't say that to be a whiner, I accepted a long time ago that Bush won by the rules.  But a President elected under those circumstances has never managed to get re-elected.  I suppose there is a first time for everything, but lets just say I consider it unlikely.

Realistically, I think Kerry will win with somewhere between 270 and 290 EV.  Or maybe Bush will win, within that same margin, but the odds are with Kerry.

Tell me how Bush is more of a Conservative then Reagan? Actually they are closer to each other then Democrats fear to admit. The numbers right now are floating around the middle but Bush hasn't even really started campaigning yet. I mean you have to come out and admit that. If you think he will just go down quietly you'd be fooling yourself (Not saying you personally, just in general). Bush would say, "I have not yet begun to fight." Bush is just waiting for the right time to launch an all out assault. Though their are a lot of ABBers out there I can say most are political hacks such as you and I who weren't going to vote for Bush anyhow. Kerry very well could pull it off but I have to say that a lot more of his states look "anemic" then do Bush states. For examples I give, Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

[Fritz]

What do you mean by "his" states?  If you mean the states that Gore won in 2000, then you shouldn't have included New Hampshire, that was a Bush state.

"Anemic" Bush states (besides New Hampshire): Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, and to a lesser extent Missouri, Nevada, Arkansas.

[??????????]

What do you mean by "his" states?  If you mean the states that Gore won in 2000, then you shouldn't have included New Hampshire, that was a Bush state.

"Anemic" Bush states (besides New Hampshire): Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, and to a lesser extent Missouri, Nevada, Arkansas.

That is even more reason why I believe we are going to have some states going in whacky ways we never expected. Every election is different pretty much.

[MN-EDR]

Several points here;

1) BUSH has not yet begun o fight? Maybe he personally, but I'm seeing Bush attack ads every time I turn on the TV, and I don't watch more than about 2 hours of TV per week. Kerry has barely started, Bush is in this like it's mid September. I think the attack ads from Kerry are all going to come out in October, and run all the way through. Seriously, he's been attacking his record so far, but moe focusing on building the Kerry image as a positive candidate...succes or failure of that I leave to you. The attack ads will come out after Bush has stopped shooting himself in the foot and needs a little bit more help -- you know, all the quotes like "There ought to be limits to freedom" and "Frankly, I don't care where Osama in Laden is" -- will start appearing.

20 a MN Republican said something about MN trending right on taxes; this might be right, but I think it's because none of us really know where all that money is going. We're not seeing any real improvements or cost cuts anywhere. This is making the academic left (in the TC college naighborhoods) think we need MORE  taxes, and is going to make them very stubborn about lowerng them. There are a lot of "Willing to PAy for a Better Minnesota" yardsigns around here.Also, I'd agree with the statement that MN is more conservationist than enviromentalist, but with regards to eduation, I think people are looking around for someone or something to blame for how badly the schools are doing -- they're realy doing excellently, especially compared to everyone else's, but it's a reflection of whath te national news says. The GOP hurt itself by nominating Cheri Yecke as education commissioner, and the Dems hurt themselves by not making clear why they opposed her. It really seemed like it was purely partisina, but with statements about wanting to stop the "liberals with the hate-America agenda", it certainly wasn't partisian, it was common sense.
And about the size of gov't issue, I think Minnesotans are more concerned about it because it's so visible and partisian, not because of conservatism.



Also, ENOGUH already with te BS about Massachusetts liberals and Northern liberals! Dukakis was NOT a liberal. Mondale was a liberal, but his entire platform was "I'm going to raise your taxes", which was incredibly stupid. The reason Dukakis and Mondale lost was because they didn't stick to bread and butter liberalism but they didn't run inspiring campaigns either, so they lost both populist votes and liberal votes. The only reason Dems thik liberals can't win is because they haven't tried nominating one in 40 YEARS!!! LBJ was the last liberal President! If you look at the two liberals who've run, Mondale and LBJ, you've got a 50% success rate, and Mondale had a terrible campaign. And finally, who thinks RFK would have lost to Nixon? ANYBODY??? RFK would have destroyed Nixon, and he was a trueblue liberal. He was a Kennedy too, but still. The central tenets of the New Deal STILL defeat the central tenets of "Reaganism" in the polls.

[classical liberal]

which is how Reagan won by like 20 points in 1984 of ourse.

[Shira]

It is sad, but Bush is apparently going stay in office

[??????????]

LBJ a liberal? LOL I'm sure even he is rolling in his grave at that one. He was one of the biggest racists in 60s politics.

[ATFFL]

LBJ a liberal? LOL I'm sure even he is rolling in his grave at that one. He was one of the biggest racists in 60s politics.

This is one of the things we have to accept, in 40+ years the definition of liberal and conservative have moved around a bit.

[© tweed]

LBJ a liberal? LOL I'm sure even he is rolling in his grave at that one. He was one of the biggest racists in 60s politics.

Great Society?  It was New Deal II.

Even though LBJ personally was a racist, he wasn't a racist in policy.  He is a economic socialist and a social liberal.

[??????????]

LBJ a liberal? LOL I'm sure even he is rolling in his grave at that one. He was one of the biggest racists in 60s politics.

Great Society?  It was New Deal II.

Even though LBJ personally was a racist, he wasn't a racist in policy.  He is a economic socialist and a social liberal.

Didn't the Great Society idea fail? Lead to the troubles of the 1970s and later to the Reagan Revolution.

[© tweed]

Didn't the Great Society idea fail? Lead to the troubles of the 1970s and later to the Reagan Revolution.

IT did fail...but how is that relevant to LBJ's ideology?

[??????????]

Didn't the Great Society idea fail? Lead to the troubles of the 1970s and later to the Reagan Revolution.

IT did fail...but how is that relevant to LBJ's ideology?

He was a mediocre president at best. Failed policies. The Civil Rights act was only passed due to the efforts of Republican Congressional leadership.

[© tweed]

StatesRights,

Whether he was a good president or not is NOT the debate.  The debate is his ideology.

[they don't love you like i love you]

He was an absolutely terrible terrible terrible president, just plain awful. But he was no moderate.

[Mort from NewYawk]

LBJ a liberal? LOL I'm sure even he is rolling in his grave at that one. He was one of the biggest racists in 60s politics.

This is one of the things we have to accept, in 40+ years the definition of liberal and conservative have moved around a bit.

Thank you Tredrick, and welcome to the forum.

This is what I'm trying to say here. Not that the liberal (alright, I'll give you liberal to moderate) domestic politics of Kerry is unelectable, but that the post-Vietnam foreign policy ideology, particularly in relation to when war is called for, is in a shambles.

LBJ and Kennedy are not relevant to this conversation, except as an example of what a liberal Democrat USED to be, before Vietnam.

(StatesRights, I would say here that whatever racism can be attributed to LBJ, he came up out of the South in the 40's and 50's - by the 60's, he was, like JFK, a social reformer [the Voting Rights Act] and a distributionist [Medicaid]).

However, though Kennedy and Johnson were political liberals at home, they were hawks on Communism, until Vietnam destroyed Johnson and shook the Democrats' faith in the value of America flexing it's muscles, particularly in an unconventional war in the Third World, in defense of freedom.

Now we have Bush, after this tragic insult to America and humanity on Sept. 11, declaring and fighting an unconventional war in the Third World, and he has the Democrats who identify with the post-Vietnam malaise of the party tied in knots.

My contention is that as the election nears, the voters in the middle of the spectrum, the real Reagan Democrats, will have had enough of the angry ranting and raving against Bush, especially if things in Iraq give a glimmer of maybe being alright, even good for us. They may not love Bush like they loved Reagan, but they will recognize that, like Reagan, he knows who the enemy is, and is unafraid to press our advantages until the enemy falls.


NOT AS MY COMMANDER IN CHIEF(S)


Governor Dukakis and Lt. Gov. Kerry, 1983