UK Local Elections / European Parliamentary Elections

[JohnFKennedy]

Interesting, Labour is really picking up support from the working classes and losing the middle classes who were once very strong supporters.

The middle class is presumably now breaking for the Tories and Lib Dems, who did control of those councils go to?

It is an interesting development.

[Sibboleth]

Interesting, Labour is really picking up support from the working classes and losing the middle classes who were once very strong supporters.

The middle class is presumably now breaking for the Tories and Lib Dems, who did control of those councils go to?

It is an interesting development.

And yet has been ignored by the media. Which is strange... it's by far the most interesting trend (the same thing happend with the Welsh elections in 2003. ie: it's no fluke) and the only one that gives *any* clues to how the General election will shape up (my guess: a Wilson '66 majority).

Why has it been ignored? Are there no Psephologists in the BBC anymore?
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NUT went LD, while Thurrock and Tamworth went Tory. All others are now NOC.

[Sibboleth]

Another example of extremely biased coverage: the Indie. Which has only written about results that fit into it's Iraq-obsessed editorial line.
Shame.
It used to be a quality paper.

[Gustaf]

So, do you guys have any predictions on the European elections?

Btw, is UKIP really that bad? I thought they cleaned out the racists, etc after the last election? Still, let's keep in mind that we're talking European parliament here...let 'em have it...

We're stable, mature democracies, and we don't need an excessive, bureacratic, African farmer-starving organization to prevent us from engaging in silly wars...I mean, come on...

[JohnFKennedy]

So, do you guys have any predictions on the European elections?

Btw, is UKIP really that bad? I thought they cleaned out the racists, etc after the last election? Still, let's keep in mind that we're talking European parliament here...let 'em have it...

We're stable, mature democracies, and we don't need an excessive, bureacratic, African farmer-starving organization to prevent us from engaging in silly wars...I mean, come on...

UKIP support full withdrawal from Europe and an isolationist foreign policy I believe.

[Sibboleth]

So, do you guys have any predictions on the European elections?

Btw, is UKIP really that bad? I thought they cleaned out the racists, etc after the last election? Still, let's keep in mind that we're talking European parliament here...let 'em have it...

We're stable, mature democracies, and we don't need an excessive, bureacratic, African farmer-starving organization to prevent us from engaging in silly wars...I mean, come on...

UKIP support full withdrawal from Europe and an isolationist foreign policy I believe.

And anti-immigrants. And homophobic. Oh... there ads contained racial slurs against other E.U countries.

[Gustaf]

So, do you guys have any predictions on the European elections?

Btw, is UKIP really that bad? I thought they cleaned out the racists, etc after the last election? Still, let's keep in mind that we're talking European parliament here...let 'em have it...

We're stable, mature democracies, and we don't need an excessive, bureacratic, African farmer-starving organization to prevent us from engaging in silly wars...I mean, come on...

UKIP support full withdrawal from Europe and an isolationist foreign policy I believe.

And anti-immigrants. And homophobic. Oh... there ads contained racial slurs against other E.U countries.

THey don't seem to be isolationist, actually. But I can well imagine that they're homophobes...

[afleitch]

If the UKIP does well, it is possible its most well known candidate, Richard Kilroy Silk, will replace its current unknown leader. A Kilroy led UKIP would be extremely populist, but I doubt it would be 'phobic' as Kilroy himself is liberal minded socially. If Kilroy did lead, commentors who have seen him in action say he is a fantastic campaigner. If it can outflank the Conservatives and Labour, There could be a 1981 'seismic' shift in voting intentions, aka SDP, though whether that would translate into a good election performance we would have to wait and see. This is, of course, only if Kilroy- a man who speaks his mind- becomes the leader of the party. Don't count them out....just yet

Bearing that in mind- I still wouldn't vote for them

[struct310]

Just to clarify, the UKIP, is it close to the Republican party in its views?

[Gustaf]

Just to clarify, the UKIP, is it close to the Republican party in its views?

It's not translatable. Since their major issue is oppositoin to the EU...

But yes, they're conservative, that's for sure.

[JohnFKennedy]

If the UKIP does well, it is possible its most well known candidate, Richard Kilroy Silk, will replace its current unknown leader. A Kilroy led UKIP would be extremely populist, but I doubt it would be 'phobic' as Kilroy himself is liberal minded socially. If Kilroy did lead, commentors who have seen him in action say he is a fantastic campaigner. If it can outflank the Conservatives and Labour, There could be a 1981 'seismic' shift in voting intentions, aka SDP, though whether that would translate into a good election performance we would have to wait and see. This is, of course, only if Kilroy- a man who speaks his mind- becomes the leader of the party. Don't count them out....just yet

Bearing that in mind- I still wouldn't vote for them

You doubt it would be "phobic"?

Robert Kilroy Silk is the man who said that all Arabs are terrorists.

[Ben.]

I have a number of friends who live in the East Midlands and they mostly voted for Kilroy and a number of them are Labour Party members. From what I can tell a strong performance by UKIP and the Greens in the Euro Elections will be a good thing as it will “rattle a few cages” and force the main parties to take notice of the vast majority of people’s unease about the EU, it is not that they want to withdraw it is that they what a final settlement as opposed to the continuing pressure from France and Germany for “ever closer union” which always struck me as faintly sinister. Kilroy is vain but he isn’t hateful, I think that he does care and is a fairly Republican esqu figure for the UK, he very much a “personal candidate” as opposed to a “party candidate” he runs on his ability and his achievements rather than the party tag next to his name (unlike many very dull politicians in the UK), he is good on TV usually and seems earnest and intelligent, he taps wonderfully into a deep seated resentment within the UK  towards both the EU and the “metropolitan elite” it proper nationalism, not thuggish fascism (al-la the BNP) but a spirited nationalism and in Kilory’s case linked with a social liberalism that could really turn the UKIP into something more than a “doss house for the disaffected right of the Conservative Party” he as leader would be able to build on any success in the euro elections and possible stage some powerful campaigns in a number of selected constituencies at the time of the next election… On Europe I think UKIP are a bit far the right but most of the other party’s are way way to the left imho, with Kilroy-Silk as their leader UKIP would have the very real potential to become a populist-rightwing party that could do well.  

   Another point, a UKIP party as a respectable nationalist party, like the SNP or Pliad Cymre could do well… populist polices that would play well with middle and lower  income groups and could allow for inroads amongst both poorer Labour voters and middle class Labour and Tory voters... my final word, they could do well…    

[JohnFKennedy]

UKIP have severe problems in my eyes, they say that the nation is "full up" and that we should stop immigration because if our people can't do the jobs they aren't necessary effectively. They say there isn't enough space for letting anyone else in and that no asylum seekers should be allowed in.

[Michael Z]

Kilroy-Silk is this country's Jorg Haider.

[bullmoose88]

Any news on EU elections in the UK?

[Peter]

First Region to Declare - London;
Turnout 36.7%

Party	Votes	% Vote	MEPs Elected
Conservative	504,941	26.8%	3
Labour	466,584	24.7%	3
Liberal Democrats	288,790	15.3%	1
United Kingdom Indepence Party	232,633	12.3%	1
Greens	158,986	8.4%	1
Respect	91,175	4.8%	0
British National Party	76,152	4.0%	0
English Democrats Party	15,945	0.8%	0
Others	50,243	2.7%	0

Second Region - North East
Turnout - 40.6%

Party	Votes	% Vote	MEPs Elected
Conservative	144,969	18.6%	1
Labour	266,057	34.1%	1
Liberal Democrats	138,971	17.8%	1
United Kingdom Indepence Party	94,887	12.2%	0
Greens	37,247	4.8%	0
Respect	8,633	1.1%	0
British National Party	50,249	6.4%	0
Others	39,658	5.1%	0

3rd Region - Yorkshire & The Humber
Turnout 42.2%

Party	Votes	% Vote	MEPs Elected
Conservative	387,369	24.6%	2
Labour	413,213	26.3%	2
Liberal Democrats	244,607	15.5%	1
United Kingdom Indepence Party	228,666	14.5%	1
Greens	90,337	5.7%	0
Respect	29,865	1.9%	0
British National Party	126,538	8.0%	0
English Democrats Party	24,068	1.5%	0
Others	28,538	1.8%	0

[bullmoose88]

What do these numbers mean for the major parties?

conservatives in trouble?

[Peter]

Later results indicate trouble for the govt - only about 23% share of vote. Massive gains for UKIP, polling 18% and about 11 seats in the Parlt. Lib Dems seeing gain in vote but might lose a seat. Tories arent doing well, about 28% of vote, but could expect to gain the majority of the UKIP support in a general election.

I will publish results on my website as soon as I can.

[Peter]

I have six of the results up on my website:

UK results for EU 2004

And for comparison:
1999 results

Note that UK number of seats has gone from 87 to 78 in total.

[Sibboleth]

The results are bad for all three parties... probably worse for the Tories because Labour can say that all Euro elections result in large anti-govt swings and that the Tories have failed to take advantage of that (they also did better than most other european governments), despite falling into 4th the LibDems can be pleased there vote went up...
Both UKIP and the BNP did disturbingly well...

[Sibboleth]

He *does* look like Haider...
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Re: UKIP voters... my guess is that the disaffected Tories will head back in a Toryward direction... and that the "Reagan Democrat" ones will head back in a Labourwards direction... (and anyways more Labour voters will turnout at the General)
Which leaves a hard core of support. Question is: how big is it?
My guess (or is it a hope) would be about 5% of the electorate.

Oh yeah... heard a rumour that Chris Gill might be standing as UKIP's candidate in Ludlow next General election.
You have been warned.

[Michael Z]

He *does* look like Haider...

Their views are roughly the same too. In fact, see little difference between UKIP and Austria's Freedom Party. Or, for that matter, Front Nationale, Vlaams Blok... they're all symptoms of the same disease. Petty nationalists who want to drag us back into the dark days.

You can't imagine how angry I am with the British electorate right now.

[Sibboleth]

He *does* look like Haider...

Their views are roughly the same too. In fact, see little difference between UKIP and Austria's Freedom Party. Or, for that matter, Front Nationale, Vlaams Blok... they're all symptoms of the same disease. Petty nationalists who want to drag us back into the dark days.

You can't imagine how angry I am with the British electorate right now.

They are very like the "Freedom" Party...

[Ben.]

He *does* look like Haider...

Their views are roughly the same too. In fact, see little difference between UKIP and Austria's Freedom Party. Or, for that matter, Front Nationale, Vlaams Blok... they're all symptoms of the same disease. Petty nationalists who want to drag us back into the dark days.

You can't imagine how angry I am with the British electorate right now.

They are very like the "Freedom" Party...

They seem like a rightwing populist party with a heavy does of non-racist nationalism... While i disagree, I can understand why they are apealing and if properly lead and managed could do well.  

[Gustaf]

Now, now...I don't think UKIP should be compared to Le Pen or Vlams Blok...there's a marked difference between xenophobic nationalists and racist idiots, IMHO. Vlams Blok vice chairman had to resign after claiming that the Holocaust was very exaggerated. I don't think a lot of people in the UKIP would do that.