Senate Elections - 2004

[Nym90]

I can't think of any examples of past election though in which a lack of tact cost a candidate the White House. I think most voters would prefer a candidate who honestly speaks their mind than one who lets polls and focus groups determine what to say.

[jravnsbo]

true STRAIGHT talks does do well, but Dean's problem is that he shoots off tthe cuff, then there is a backlash and then he has to continually readjust his position.  That isn't straight he is going with the flow of the attacks.  But continues to take outlandish positions and make very left statements.

[agcatter]

definitately won't be lack of tact that will cost him the White House.  Haha.  He's got plenty of other problems.

[jravnsbo]

Yeah PLEASE just let him tell his positions that will sink him enough.

TAX INCREASES
MASSIVE GOV'T EXPANSION WITH SOCIALIZED MEDICINE
-GAY RIGHTS FOR ALL
-MASSIVE REGULATIONS ON BUSINESS
-ANTI-WAR (Hey lets just talk it out at the UN forever, no matter these terrorists don't care about the UN)

[jravnsbo]

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

good site for reviewing which senate and house races will be close and interesting to watch in 2004.

[DarthKosh]

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

good site for reviewing which senate and house races will be close and interesting to watch in 2004.

The only ones that i see that will ne real close are  Florida and Illinois.

[© tweed]

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

good site for reviewing which senate and house races will be close and interesting to watch in 2004.

Thanks for the link.

[jravnsbo]

no problem

I was more interested for the house races as they aren't as well known.

[© tweed]

no problem

I was more interested for the house races as they aren't as well known.

Larry J. Sabato has his nifty fifty.  His whole crystal ball is here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

Now we're even.

[jravnsbo]

yeah I already know about that one.  In fact I talk directly with Mr Sabato quite regularly and he has even taken some graphics I had for his websites.

no problem

I was more interested for the house races as they aren't as well known.

Larry J. Sabato has his nifty fifty.  His whole crystal ball is here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

Now we're even.

[© tweed]

yeah I already know about that one.  In fact I talk directly with Mr Sabato quite regularly and he has even taken some graphics I had for his websites.

no problem

I was more interested for the house races as they aren't as well known.

Larry J. Sabato has his nifty fifty.  His whole crystal ball is here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

Now we're even.

Damn!  We're not even then....

[jravnsbo]

don't worry about it.  I try to help people not expecting anything in return.  If you find something good post if not, oh well.

[12th Doctor]

Is that guy from Frazier going to Run for senate?

Kelsey Grammer said that he was interested in running in the future, but he wants to do more acting first.  So maybe in 15 or 20 years.

[zorkpolitics]

I think the Senate will become more exciting as we move through the year.

Bush may completely change the conventional wisdom on the Senate seats since he is committed to winning a GOP victory, not just a Bush victory in Nov.  Bush plans to complete his 2004  "primary" fund raising by March.  Much of the $200 million is dedicated to organizing the grass roots, registering up to 3 million new GOP voters, and planning for the 72 hr GOTV.  All of this will benefit down ticket races.
After March it seems likely Bush will turn his prodigious fund rasing abilty to the competitive Senate and House seats, potentially drawing on his Pioneers and Rangers to raise additional millions for the Senate races.  This will help defend OK and AK, improve chances in NC, SC, FL, GA, and LA, and I think, will surprise everyone by putting Democratic seats in WA, SD, CA, WI, into the competition and perhaps even ND, and NV if the GOP can find someone to run there.

[© tweed]

Al Franken might challenge Norm coleman in 2008 in Minnesota.  Not so sure he could win though.

[jravnsbo]

NV looks to have their sec of state running, not as strong as Rep Gibons buit decent and Reid always has close races.

I think the Senate will become more exciting as we move through the year.

Bush may completely change the conventional wisdom on the Senate seats since he is committed to winning a GOP victory, not just a Bush victory in Nov.  Bush plans to complete his 2004  "primary" fund raising by March.  Much of the $200 million is dedicated to organizing the grass roots, registering up to 3 million new GOP voters, and planning for the 72 hr GOTV.  All of this will benefit down ticket races.
After March it seems likely Bush will turn his prodigious fund rasing abilty to the competitive Senate and House seats, potentially drawing on his Pioneers and Rangers to raise additional millions for the Senate races.  This will help defend OK and AK, improve chances in NC, SC, FL, GA, and LA, and I think, will surprise everyone by putting Democratic seats in WA, SD, CA, WI, into the competition and perhaps even ND, and NV if the GOP can find someone to run there.

[© tweed]

Reid barely won in 1998; I think he had 48% of the vote but I don't remember the exact total?

[JNB]

 In 98, Sen. Reid ran against then Rep. Ensign, and he was the best possible canidate that could have ran against Sen. Reid, with Rep. Ensign representing Democratic(nominally at least) Las Vegas. Sen. Reid won by only 300 votes, and Rep. Ensign did end up winning the other NV senate seat with 55% of the vote in 2000.

[jravnsbo]

A link to Mr Sabato's latest update as of today on senate races.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/scripts/all_races.php?year=2004&race=Senate

[jravnsbo]

Thune to announce tonight at the Sioux Falls Lincoln Day Dinner whether he is running for Senate or not.

I would tend to think Yes since he is doing it at the Lincoln day dinner.  Give him a roaring start and unlikely to disappoint the crowd, but we shall see.

[jravnsbo]

Thune’s In: Former U.S. Rep. John Thune, R-S.D., will announce a challenge to Democratic Sen. Tom Daschle on Monday evening. A senior Republican source tells CBS News that veteran South Dakota political adviser Dick Wadhams will "play a large role" in a Thune Senate campaign.

Last month, Thune said he would not be a candidate for his old job – the U.S. House seat soon to be vacated by Republican Bill Janklow, who is set to resign Jan. 20 after being convicted of second-degree manslaughter and three lesser charges for an Aug. 16 traffic crash that killed a Minnesota motorcyclist.

Thune, who served in the House from 1998-2002, was lobbied by President Bush and Karl Rove to run for the Senate in 2002. He jumped into the race and eventually lost by a mere 524 votes to Democrat Tim Johnson, South Dakota’s junior senator. Republican strategists believe Thune is the one candidate who could give Daschle a real race. Beating the Democratic leader would be huge for Republicans; not only would it mean unseating a popular, third-term Democrat, but it would also give Republicans firmer control of the Senate, where they have a 51-48 edge, with one Democratic-leaning independent.

[NHPolitico]

yeah I already know about that one.  In fact I talk directly with Mr Sabato quite regularly and he has even taken some graphics I had for his websites.

no problem

I was more interested for the house races as they aren't as well known.

Larry J. Sabato has his nifty fifty.  His whole crystal ball is here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

Now we're even.

I know what you mean. He's oddly easy to reach. I like to imagine I'm special because I correspond via email with him, but I know (and knew before your post) that I wasn't. He just must have no life to answer his email from folks like us.

[NHPolitico]

Is that guy from Frazier going to Run for senate?

Kelsey does seem serious about politics. He came out of the closet after Bush won the Florida battle. Kelsey gave $100K to the inauguration and started showing up in public at Bush public events-- hosting stuff that Bush was attending and such. He's been on Hannity and Colmes several times, too. I think he could handle himself very well in politics.  Like Arnold and Reagan, when you know how to work the media, you can be quite effective.

I heard Richard Dreyfuss is thinking of public office.

[NHPolitico]

Is that guy from Frazier going to Run for senate?

I'd say the whole topic of celebrities as politicos is interesting.  

One guy I always thought would run (and he'd run as a Republican) is Joe Clark from "Lean on Me" fame. I think New Jersey's fear of the "R" after your name kept him from it. His daughter 4-time olympian Joetta Clark Diggs has made it known that public office is of interest to her. Christie Whitman appointed her to the New Jersey Sports and Exhibition Authority.   She's making good money as a motivational speaker and is active in charities for children.

Another is John Elway who strongly looked at going to Congress in 2000. He ended up going into business opportunities, but I'm sure he still is interested. Another QB Steve Young may run, too. His agent has said he'd run from California, though, so Kelsey may have competition!

An up-and-comer in both celebrity and politics for the GOP is Redskins WR Patrick Johnson. He's an intern for J. C. Watts at GOPAC in his spare time.

 

[jravnsbo]

first daschle had one challenger ( thune) now he has another ( in the primary!) not that this guy has much of a chance, but still news.

Editor plans run as Democrat

National attention may be focused on a race between Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and former Rep. John Thune, but both U.S. Senate candidates might have to clear primary hurdles to win their parties' nomination.

Tim Giago, an Oglala Lakota and editor/publisher of the Lakota Journal newspaper in Rapid City and the Pueblo Journal in Albuquerque, N.M., said Friday that he will seek the Democratic nomination against Daschle.

Last month, Lakota Media Inc., owner of both publications, was sold to the Flandreau Santee Sioux Tribe.

"My basic reason for running is that for the past 50 years, the Indian vote on the Indian reservations has been taken for granted in this state," said Giago, 69.

Daschle, 56, welcomed Giago to the political arena and spoke positively about him.

"I have known Tim for more than 20 years and have respect for him as a community leader and a businessman," Daschle said Friday. "I have applauded his efforts to encourage reconciliation in South Dakota."

Daschle said Giago was one of the leaders in encouraging the Gathering and Healing of Nations Conference sponsored by Daschle and Gov. Mike Rounds.

"Using my position in the Senate to continue working to improve the quality of life in Indian Country is one of the primary reasons that I am running for re-election," Daschle said in a statement.

Thune, 43, a Republican, announced Monday that he will challenge Daschle. But Bert Tollefson, a Watertown native who has been living in Arizona, said late last year that he will run in the Republican primary.

Tollefson, 73, also ran in the Republican House primary in 2002, getting 1 percent of the vote. He served as assistant to U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ezra Taft Benson in the Eisenhower administration, as assistant administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development in the State Department and as U.S. Aid Mission director in Nairobi, Kenya.

If Giago and Tollefson get on the ballot, the Senate primaries would be June 1.

Giago said a recent speech by Rounds defined what he sees as a problem in the state.

"We have a mind-set to see one point of view," Giago said. "Governor Rounds said South Dakota has only 3 percent unemployment, but he totally disregarded the Indian reservations, with some having as high as 75 percent unemployment."

Daschle and Sen. Tim Johnson have taken the Native American vote for granted, he said.

"There are some things we can do together as people," Giago said, "and if I can talk about where we come from as a people, that is an important step."

Giago said he is not running just for the fun of it. He said he intends to beat Daschle and is prepared to debate him.

"Senator Daschle has lost a lot of luster in my mind," Giago said. "So many things could have been done to bring things to Rosebud and Pine Ridge (reservations). Why not economic development?"

He cited an unsuccessful effort in Kyle to build a mall.

"Harvey White Woman has been trying for years to get it. He has got the people interested, but he can't do a simple thing to get it built," Giago said. "They (the congressional delegation) have no good reason why it hasn't been built."

Giago said a letter he wrote challenging state government on reconciliation got the ball rolling on that venture of hope in the mid-1980s.

"Reconciliation died with (Gov.) George Mickelson," Giago said. "Getting reconciliation on track would again create an awareness of the problem and a discussion of solutions."

A Giago candidacy would be good for the state, said Leonard Eller of Flandreau, chairman of the Santee Sioux Tribe.

"Not only would he help Native Americans, he would help everyone," Eller said. "I don't know much about him politically, but he has a lot of experience dealing with the public, and that would be helpful."

Herbert Hoover, professor of history at the University of South Dakota, sees it differently.

"Nothing surprises me in what Tim Giago does. I think he realizes he doesn't have a chance in the primary. He is just trying to make a statement," Hoover said. "It is strange with all Daschle does for Native Americans. Giago can't win. A primary could give Daschle a chance to show what kind of clout he has."