Senate Elections - 2004

[dunn]

Barak Obama?  What sort of ethnic background?  I'm guessing Arab, possibly Muslim?

He is a Muslim afro american

[opebo]

Barak Obama?  What sort of ethnic background?  I'm guessing Arab, possibly Muslim?

He is a Muslim afro american

And he's seriously ahead in the primary?!  We might have a chance at keeping Fitzgerald's seat after all.

[dunn]

Barak Obama?  What sort of ethnic background?  I'm guessing Arab, possibly Muslim?

He is a Muslim afro american

And he's seriously ahead in the primary?!  We might have a chance at keeping Fitzgerald's seat after all.

He is young,  handsome and succesfull
and the state has 18% or so afro-american and 13% hispanic

[opebo]

Barak Obama?  What sort of ethnic background?  I'm guessing Arab, possibly Muslim?

He is a Muslim afro american

And he's seriously ahead in the primary?!  We might have a chance at keeping Fitzgerald's seat after all.

He is young,  handsome and succesfull
and the state has 18% or so afro-american and 13% hispanic

I don't think hispanics are particularly likely to vote for african americans.  I was more talking about the muslim aspect.

[CollectiveInterest]

Barak Obama?  What sort of ethnic background?  I'm guessing Arab, possibly Muslim?

He is a Muslim afro american

My recollection is that Obama's father was African and his mother a US citizen of Euro descent from Kansas. He grew-up at least some of the time in Hawaii.

I don't know that he's not Muslim but he's certainly not Nation of Islam Muslim.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This article is by Bob Novak of all people:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[minionofmidas]

The name Barack Obama sounds like some neo-African name to me, but not Islamic.
I guess if his father really is an African immigrant, that shouldn't really be a problem. But I can't see a namechanging, Black Pride, 70s person elected to the Senate. I just can't picture it. I know Kweisi Mfume and Chaka Fattah made it to the House, but that's something else. Maybe with DC statehood, but not now.

[classical liberal]

Personally, I think DC should rejoin Maryland, as Arlington rejoined Virginia.

[minionofmidas]

I agree.

[CTguy]

It's really not fair how D.C. voters get no representation in Congress.  But shouldn't you be against that since 90% of D.C. residents are democrats and re-joining it to Maryland would just add 1 or 2 Democratic congressmen.

How come the republicans no longer talk about this.  Back in the day I believe Dole and Bush Sr. said that D.C. should have voting rights but now no-one will say a word about it.

[minionofmidas]

It would be one. DC's population is now below the average Congressional District's. And I guess he thinks Maryland is safe for the Dems even without DC (although they narrowly elected a Rep. governor last time - that wouldn't have happened with DC inside MD).
Maybe DC should join Virginia.

[CTguy]

It would be one if the district kept the same district lines and D.C. was merely one district in itself.  However if they redistricted, since D.C. is so overwhelmingly democratic it could spill over into other districts if the lines are redrawn and change other districts make-up.

Also, if D.C. had state legislature votes then it would strengthen democratic control of the state which means the next time the state is redistricted it would probably be done more favorably to democrats.  

[minionofmidas]

I don't know about the state House, but their House of Representatives' delegation already is pro-Dem gerrymandered. Just look at the second district.
The GOP now has two seats in the state, and while neither is 250% safe, they are almost impossible to gerrymander away because of the state's shape.

[Ben.]

Looks like it will probably be Obama V Ryan in IL…
 
“FINAL ILLINOIS POLLS. The final WBBM-TV/SurveyUSA poll numbers released Monday show State Senator Barack Obama nearly certain to win the Democratic primary over several millionaire contenders. The poll has Obama holding a 30-point lead. The GOP contest is tightening into rather competitive race. Wealthy investment banker Jack Ryan leads with 33%, followed by dairy company owner Jim Oberweis at 24%, and State Senator Steve Rauschenberger at 21%. Rauschenberger -- who has won most of the newspaper endorsements -- seems to have the momentum (he's moved up 10 points within the past six days), but it may be too late for him to catch Ryan. An amusing race to also watch is the Democratic primary in CD-2. In that race, Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) should cruise to a big primary victory over disgraced former Congressman Mel Reynolds (D) and two others. Reynolds -- a former Rhodes Scholar -- saw his political career crash-and-burn several years ago in two scandals. In separate cases, Reynolds was convicted on federal corruption charges and also of statutory rape of a 16-year-old girl and obstruction. See our Illinois page for links to all of the campaigns.”  - Politics1

Personally I recon that Obama should beat Ryan but this race should be more competitive than many people originally though, mostly thanks to Ryan’s money…just praying we don’t nominate Hull…

[minionofmidas]

So, what happened in the 2nd IL?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So, what happened in the 2nd IL?

Illinois 2nd results
Jesse Jackson Jr. - 89%
Mel Reynolds - 6%

[Q]

From politics1.com:

<<<SURPRISE SENATE CANDIDATE IN GEORGIA. Freshman Congresswoman Denise Majette (D-GA) unexpectedly jumped into the open US Senate race on Monday. Majette -- then a state court judge -- made national headlines when she defeated controversial Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney by a 59% to 41% vote in the 2002 Democratic primary. McKinney was already challenging Majette in a rematch this year, although Majette was favored to win re-election. Before today, the field of Democrats in the US Senate race consisted of just two little-known State Senators and some other unknowns. By contrast, the GOP contest for the seat features three major candidates: Congressmen Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins, and wealthy businessman Herman Cain. Majette's entry gives the Dems a more viable candidate for the seat being vacated by retiring incumbent Zell Miller (D), but the Republicans are still favored to win here. Majette acknowledged she was making a late entry -- and did so without seeking support from party leaders -- but said she did so because her party needed a stronger candidate to fight the Republican candidates who "keep trotting out their right-wing rhetoric on God, guns and gays in an attempt to divide the electorate and distract from the serious problems they're not addressing." In the race for Majette's open and safe Democratic seat, McKinney is likely to now draw heavyweight primary opposition.>>>

I'd say Republicans' chances of capturing this seat just dropped from 99.9% to 55%, but still Majette will have a tough time winning.  Looks to be an interesting race in GA, after all.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From politics1.com:

<<<SURPRISE SENATE CANDIDATE IN GEORGIA. Freshman Congresswoman Denise Majette (D-GA) unexpectedly jumped into the open US Senate race on Monday. Majette -- then a state court judge -- made national headlines when she defeated controversial Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney by a 59% to 41% vote in the 2002 Democratic primary. McKinney was already challenging Majette in a rematch this year, although Majette was favored to win re-election. Before today, the field of Democrats in the US Senate race consisted of just two little-known State Senators and some other unknowns. By contrast, the GOP contest for the seat features three major candidates: Congressmen Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins, and wealthy businessman Herman Cain. Majette's entry gives the Dems a more viable candidate for the seat being vacated by retiring incumbent Zell Miller (D), but the Republicans are still favored to win here. Majette acknowledged she was making a late entry -- and did so without seeking support from party leaders -- but said she did so because her party needed a stronger candidate to fight the Republican candidates who "keep trotting out their right-wing rhetoric on God, guns and gays in an attempt to divide the electorate and distract from the serious problems they're not addressing." In the race for Majette's open and safe Democratic seat, McKinney is likely to now draw heavyweight primary opposition.>>>

I'd say Republicans' chances of capturing this seat just dropped from 99.9% to 55%, but still Majette will have a tough time winning.  Looks to be an interesting race in GA, after all.

Majette is a very good candidate who will still probably lose this race.  Isakson is looking really strong right now, and Majette is getting ahead of herself.  

But the real news is that this means Cynthia McKinney could be back in Congress!

[minionofmidas]

She probably will.
And now that the Dems will have a Black candidate too, I'm rooting for Herman Cain to win the Republican nomination!

[Rococo4]

From politics1.com:

<<<SURPRISE SENATE CANDIDATE IN GEORGIA. Freshman Congresswoman Denise Majette (D-GA) unexpectedly jumped into the open US Senate race on Monday. Majette -- then a state court judge -- made national headlines when she defeated controversial Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney by a 59% to 41% vote in the 2002 Democratic primary. McKinney was already challenging Majette in a rematch this year, although Majette was favored to win re-election. Before today, the field of Democrats in the US Senate race consisted of just two little-known State Senators and some other unknowns. By contrast, the GOP contest for the seat features three major candidates: Congressmen Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins, and wealthy businessman Herman Cain. Majette's entry gives the Dems a more viable candidate for the seat being vacated by retiring incumbent Zell Miller (D), but the Republicans are still favored to win here. Majette acknowledged she was making a late entry -- and did so without seeking support from party leaders -- but said she did so because her party needed a stronger candidate to fight the Republican candidates who "keep trotting out their right-wing rhetoric on God, guns and gays in an attempt to divide the electorate and distract from the serious problems they're not addressing." In the race for Majette's open and safe Democratic seat, McKinney is likely to now draw heavyweight primary opposition.>>>

I'd say Republicans' chances of capturing this seat just dropped from 99.9% to 55%, but still Majette will have a tough time winning.  Looks to be an interesting race in GA, after all.

are you serious.....there is no way Majette has a 45% chance to win.  she only won last time because she was running against an embarrasement.  if thats the best the georiga dems can do, georgia has finsihed its transformation to a republican state on the national level

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting development... the Dems do have an outside chance to pick up hold another Senate seat

BTW Rococo there *are* quite a few strong Dems in GA, but most are waiting to challenge hapless GOP Governer Sonny Perdue in 2006...

[Rococo4]

Interesting development... the Dems do have an outside chance to pick up hold another Senate seat

BTW Rococo there *are* quite a few strong Dems in GA, but most are waiting to challenge hapless GOP Governer Sonny Perdue in 2006...

i am a registered Ohio voter but I go to college here in GA.  there is no chance that Majette would beat Cain, Isaksson, or Collins.  The only reason Perdue would lose in 06 is because of the flag issue, and he very well may, just like the hapless Roy Barnes did.  I also disagree that there are alot of strong candidates in the Democartic party here.  

[Q]

Interesting development... the Dems do have an outside chance to pick up hold another Senate seat

BTW Rococo there *are* quite a few strong Dems in GA, but most are waiting to challenge hapless GOP Governer Sonny Perdue in 2006...

i am a registered Ohio voter but I go to college here in GA.  there is no chance that Majette would beat Cain, Isaksson, or Collins.  The only reason Perdue would lose in 06 is because of the flag issue, and he very well may, just like the hapless Roy Barnes did.  I also disagree that there are alot of strong candidates in the Democartic party here.  

Which college, Rococo?

Sonny is vulnerable.  Why did he win in '02?  He got the surburban and other traditionally Republican voters, but what put him over Barnes' totals was his appeal to a significant portion of the rural white vote, which was the only demographic to back Barnes in '98 but not in '02.  It was an aberation.  Sonny has bungled as much if not more than Barnes on the flag.  I should think the rural white vote will back the Dem in '06, if not for hope that she/he will support the neo-Confederate flag but simply to punish Sonny for not keeping his promise to put that flag on the referendum.

Ok.  Let's say 35% chance of Majette victory.  I think this may be a plot to get her on the statewide map, possibly in line for Gov in '06.

And strong Dems, let's see: both Sec. of State Cathy Cox and Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor could beat Sonny, and Labor Comm Mike Thurmond and Atty General Thurbert Baker have future political careers.  Personally, I predict a Governor Cox in 2006.

[Rococo4]

Interesting development... the Dems do have an outside chance to pick up hold another Senate seat

BTW Rococo there *are* quite a few strong Dems in GA, but most are waiting to challenge hapless GOP Governer Sonny Perdue in 2006...

i am a registered Ohio voter but I go to college here in GA.  there is no chance that Majette would beat Cain, Isaksson, or Collins.  The only reason Perdue would lose in 06 is because of the flag issue, and he very well may, just like the hapless Roy Barnes did.  I also disagree that there are alot of strong candidates in the Democartic party here.  

Which college, Rococo?

Sonny is vulnerable.  Why did he win in '02?  He got the surburban and other traditionally Republican voters, but what put him over Barnes' totals was his appeal to a significant portion of the rural white vote, which was the only demographic to back Barnes in '98 but not in '02.  It was an aberation.  Sonny has bungled as much if not more than Barnes on the flag.  I should think the rural white vote will back the Dem in '06, if not for hope that she/he will support the neo-Confederate flag but simply to punish Sonny for not keeping his promise to put that flag on the referendum.

Ok.  Let's say 35% chance of Majette victory.  I think this may be a plot to get her on the statewide map, possibly in line for Gov in '06.

And strong Dems, let's see: both Sec. of State Cathy Cox and Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor could beat Sonny, and Labor Comm Mike Thurmond and Atty General Thurbert Baker have future political careers.  Personally, I predict a Governor Cox in 2006.

I go to Georgia Southern for my Masters.  I agree, Perdue will probably lose, no matter what else he does, because the whites that usually vote Dem that voted for him , will vote agianst him next time because of the flag.

[minionofmidas]

One reason Majette switched to the Senate race may be that this way she'll at least get on the General ballot.