Senate Elections - 2004

[jravnsbo]

PAul--Gov Huckabee is not running for Senate, he has already said that.

---Someone posted--Well, Bush being at the top of the ticket would help Murkowski, but I doubt he'll make very many campaign appearances to help her out.
In fact, when was the last time any Presidential candidate campaigned in Alaska or Hawaii in the general election? There isn't much point, since neither is competitive, and they are so far away from the rest of the country.


Actually Bush stopped in HI on the way back from asian conference recently.

[jravnsbo]

  In the Southren states, I will say that the GOP VA, SC, TX and FL has a better ground organisation than the Democrats do, not to mention better financial resources to get out their votes. In TN, AL, MS, NC and GA, the parties in terms of organisation are more or less at parity, with the GOP in TN being hurt by a unpopular former gov that raised taxes and badly alienated the GOP base, while NC the Dems have been greatly helped by the former 4 term Democratic gov who almost single handley let the Dems there remain viable.

  In LA and AR, it seems the GOP has gained little ground since the 70s and is not viable on any level exxcept the presidential level.

-I beg to differ, until Gov elect Blanco, still shaking my head there -takes off I need to remind you that the Gov is GOP Mike Foster a two term governor.  In AR the GOP has a 2 term Gov in Mike Huckabee, plus GOP did have one Sen , Tim Hutchinson until 2002 election--granted first GOP senator since reconstruction but the GOP is making progress.

The GOP in the South is winning the ideological war as the dems are conservative to moderate too and have to disown the national Dem party to win, so even when GOP loses the winner is still a conservative.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What ideological war? The Dems in the South have ALWAYS been more socially conservative than their Northern relations.

Arkansas is a Democratic stronghold; Huckabee only won because of a corruption scandal and his popularity has been waning for sometime.
If anything the Republican's are waning in Arkansas as the Dems picked up district 4 in 2000 and easily held onto it in 2002. They are also considering putting up a serious challanger in district 3.

[jravnsbo]

Well Zell Miller , John Breaux and other leading Dems nknow that the National Party , not just the North, but the west is completely out of touch.  

The GOP has won in very Dem areas lately and Dems are on the defensive completely.  The gOP controls the House, Senate, 28 Gov and with the Southern Dem the GOP has an ever bigger majority as a lot of those Dems know they can't vote for the Dem agenda.  Look at the debate here alone about the Southern Dems and voting consistently with the GOP, Mary Landrieu ran on how she voted for Bush 90%+ of the time.  Slowly the Southern Dems have realized that while they may like the Dem candidate though they know a vote to keep them in supports Ted Kennedy, Hilliary CLinton, Chuck Shumer and Tom Daschle also.

[JNB]

 The lone GOP district in AR is a GOP stronghold. The Democrats had their best shot in the 2001 special election, and the GOP Canidate still got 56% of the vote. The national Democratic party will not throw any more money at this seat since their resources are limited and they have better chances elsewhere.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AR-3 is a GOP stronghold, but the Arkansas Dems seem to think they have a chance there.
I doubt it(it's leaned GOP for a LONG time), but it's worth mentioning.

[Ryan]

Ok Hi I'm new here but have posted on other forums.  The GOP will keep control of the House no problem, just too far ahead Dems need to net 13 seats plus with redistricting many prognostigators feel GOP will control HOuse till 20010 at least.

LOL 20010?? even I dont think they will hold it that long

Btw welcome to the forum, nice to have you aboard

[jravnsbo]

ty ryan, that was meant to be 2010 and many think that GOP will hold it till then at least.  And these are not just GOP people they are people lie Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook and larry Sabato-indep analyists.

[jravnsbo]

FL Senate news--


Reno Endorses Castor for U.S. Senate
Mon Dec 1,12:06 PM ET  Add Politics - U. S. Congress to My Yahoo!
 


MIAMI - Former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno (news - web sites) endorsed former state education commissioner Betty Castor in the Democratic race for the U.S. Senate on Monday, citing Castor's long commitment to bolstering education and the environment.

   

Reno chose Castor over two other prominent Democrats seeking the seat of retiring Sen. Bob Graham — Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas and U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch.


Castor was Florida's commissioner of education from 1987 to 1993, then was president of the University of South Florida until 1999, when she became president of the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards.


Republicans in the Senate race include former Judicial Watch head Larry Klayman, state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, state Sen. Daniel Webster and former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum, the party's unsuccessful Senate candidate in 2000.


Reno sought the Democratic nomination for governor last year, but was edged by attorney Bill McBride.

[Ryan]

ty ryan, that was meant to be 2010 and many think that GOP will hold it till then at least.  And these are not just GOP people they are people lie Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook and larry Sabato-indep analyists.

LOL I know that dude and I agree with Stu, Charlie, Larry and you

[jravnsbo]

Also the senate looks to be in good shape for the GOP too for a bit.  Pick up a min 2 seats this time and it is 53-46-1.  Then in 2006 the Dems have a lot of vulnerable ones again or possible retirees.

Just hold the Prez as I think the GOP will do and they should be in great shape fo a while.

[jravnsbo]

Marin Joins GOP Field Hoping to Unseat Sen. Boxer The ex-U.S. treasurer announces her candidacy in Huntington Park, where she served on the City Council. She stresses her immigrant roots, says she is a political outsider.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-marin3dec03,1,6573235.story?coll=la-headlines-politics

[jravnsbo]

SAN FRANCISCO - Former Secretary of State Bill Jones will seek the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer next year, aides said Thursday.

   

His entry would set up a four-person campaign for the GOP nomination among Jones, former Los Altos Hills Mayor Toni Casey, Ventura County Assemblyman Tony Strickland and former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin.


Jones will file nominating papers Friday in his home town of Fresno, his aides said. Friday is the deadline for candidates to get on the ballot for the March 2 primary.


Jones served two terms as secretary of state and finished third in the race for the GOP nomination for governor in 2002.


Many Republicans have said privately that Jones would probably pose the strongest challenge to Boxer because he has relatively high name recognition.


But Jones will have to overcome his decision to switch his endorsement from George W. Bush to Arizona Sen. John McCain during the California presidential primary in 2000. That change angered many party activists.

[jravnsbo]

Breaux Says He'll Retire From Senate

WASHINGTON — Louisiana Sen. John Breaux (search), a leading Democratic centrist during three terms in office, has told fellow lawmakers he intends to retire next year rather than seek re-election, officials said Monday.

 
 
Breaux's retirement would make him the fifth southern Democrat to step down in 2004, further compounding the party's difficulties in its struggle to gain a Senate majority.

Breaux, 59, scheduled an announcement in Baton Rouge. Several officials speaking on condition of anonymity said he informed several fellow lawmakers of his intentions.

Republicans hold a 51-48 majority in the Senate, with one Democrat-leaning independent.

Apart from Breaux, four other southern Democrats have announced plans to retire in states where President Bush figures to run strongly next year. They are Sens. Bob Graham (search) of Florida; John Edwards of North Carolina, Ernest Hollings of South Carolina and Zell Miller of Georgia.

Breaux, 59, had long encouraged speculation that his career in the Senate might be coming to a close — to the point that he announced recently that if he did choose to retire, he would finish out his present term.

Breaux was the youngest member of Congress when he was elected to the House in 1972 at the age of 28. He won his Senate seat in 1986, and as a centrist, often positioned himself to work across party lines.

Most recently, he was instrumental in negotiating the landmark Medicare (search) legislation that cleared Congress. The bill provides prescription drugs under Medicare at the same time it creates a new opportunity for private plans to offer health coverage to 40 million seniors and disabled individuals.

Breaux also was an early Democratic visitor to President-elect George W. Bush's ranch in 2000, although he took himself out of consideration for a Cabinet post in a Republican administration.

His departure is expected to prompt two members of the state's House delegation to jump into the 2004 Senate race, Reps. Chris John, a Democrat, and David Vitter, a Republican.

Republicans have never won a Louisiana Senate seat since Reconstruction.

The same isn't true in the other Southern Senate seats being vacated by Democrats. And whatever the outcomes of the races in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, each retirement means Democrats must defend a seat without benefit of an incumbent, creating an opportunity for Republicans.

[DarthKosh]

Five open Dem southern seats.  With Dean as their canidate, boy they are in trouble.

[jravnsbo]

Yes, yes they are.  Already llooked and Dem candidate in LA is a member of the Blue Dog coalitiona dn so the Dems know they have to runa  mod to conservative to win there, not an anti war tax increasing liberl like Dean.

[JNB]

  Rep. Chris John is fairly conservative, he is pro life and pro gun, but on the other hand, and this may be a factor in Nov, his vote for Rep. Pelosi as speaker is not going to be easy to explained, throw in a possible Dean canidacy, an dthe fact that the is not many white liberals in LA, and it becoems a toss up election. The probable GOP canidate is Rep. Vitter.

[jravnsbo]

Yes vitter is ahead on money by double Johns.  Plus the Dems will now have to spend money there that they wouldn't have had to win Brreux running.

Dean and Pelosi will hurt Johns a lot.  

[NorthernDog]

Plus the Dems will now have to spend money there that they wouldn't have had to win Breux running.  

I think this is what hurts the Democrats most- they HAVE TO hold this seat because the GOP has not won a Senate seat in LA since....1860s?
All the funding that could have been poured into Florida is out the window.

[DarthKosh]

Plus the Dems will now have to spend money there that they wouldn't have had to win Breux running.  

I think this is what hurts the Democrats most- they HAVE TO hold this seat because the GOP has not won a Senate seat in LA since....1860s?
All the funding that could have been poured into Florida is out the window.

The Dems are in protection mode.  Instead of going out to win seats they have to play defense.

[jravnsbo]

Yeah the DEms will now have to strategize and see what seats they think have the best bets instead of fighting them all out.  

I don't see whoever gets the Dem nomin in GA getting much assistance.  Plus GOP while still in an uphill battle looks poised to nominate Jack Ryan in IL, who has a lot of his own money, so then GOP can focus on other states without completely abandoning its most troubled state.

[M]

You know the last name hurts him, right? Oh well. At least he can run as a tugh on terror, what with that gunfight with the IRA and the defection of the nuclear sub. And he wasn't half bad as POTUS, either, was he?

[Saratoga2DM]

Hello all:

2004 is a big year for the Senate, especially in my state because Charles Schumer is up for reelection.  

I just want to know if anybody can give me any information about potential Republican challengers.  I not sure about Rick Lazio since he lost his bid to Hilliary Clinton in 2000 and I haven't heard if Guiliani wants to make another go.  

Any information would be helpful.  See you all later.

[jravnsbo]

Not sure of any major challenger to Shumer, but I'll tell you this.

I'd give you the 5 southern seats to be forever rid of Chuck "I want to take all your guns away" Schumer.  I'd vote for Ted Kennedy or even Hilliary before ever lift a finger for Chuck.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll take that deal!(BTW the GOP should pick up at least 1 and probably 2 and possibly up to 4 of said Southern seats)