Early NH Predictions

[MAS117]

Kerry wins in IA, who will take the "Iowa bounce to NH" ?!?

[YRABNNRM]

I think Dean will still come out on top with Kerry in a close 2nd.

[NHPolitico]

I think Dean will still come out on top with Kerry in a close 2nd.

Yep. Kerry leaves his big shoe in Clark's ass. It couldn't happen to a nicer mental patient.

[Platypus]

I think Dean's bad showing will rule him out.

Which leaves it to Clark or Kerry. I think that Clark will win most of the Dean votes, and get it, but Kerry could do well.

I just hope Kerry doesn't win the nomination; Americans would never vote for someone that fugly.

[NHPolitico]

I think Dean's bad showing will rule him out.

Which leaves it to Clark or Kerry. I think that Clark will win most of the Dean votes, and get it, but Kerry could do well.

I just hope Kerry doesn't win the nomination; Americans would never vote for someone that fugly.

Rule him out for what? Winning the primary?  It's possible, but Bush learned that winning Iowa doesn't mean much a week later in NH. They are different states.  

[NHPolitico]

I think Dean's bad showing will rule him out.

Which leaves it to Clark or Kerry. I think that Clark will win most of the Dean votes, and get it, but Kerry could do well.

I just hope Kerry doesn't win the nomination; Americans would never vote for someone that fugly.

Chris Matthews thinks he's purty with his chiseled-out-of-granite face.

[MAS117]

AFTER WATCHING DEANS SPEECH, I WOULD HAVE TO SAY HE NEEDS TO SHUT UP. DO YOU WANT THAT PERSON AS YOUR PRESIDENT? HIS ADVISORS NEED TO CALM HIM DOWN BECASUE THAT SPEECH IS GOING TO GET ATTACKED ALL UNTIL NH. SOMEONE ON MSNBC SAID WHICH I FIND APPORIATE "THATS THE WORST SPEECH SINCE DAN QUAYLE TOOK OVER AS VICE PRESIDENT."

[mossy]

I think Dean has run the best campaign, and likely have this result:  (Clark wants to come in somewhere in the first 3 places.......)

Dean 30%

Kerry 20 %

Clark 18 %

[NorthernDog]

I think Dean will collapse.  He's undisciplined and too angry. So what happens?  Since NH takes pleasure in surprises they may go for Edwards just for fun.  Clark will get squished by Kerry and finish 4th.  

[MAS117]

I thought it was funny on MSNBC... Ronald Regan Jr. said.... well at least Dean knows the name of the states in the union... thought that was funny... KERRY FOR PRESIDENT

[StevenNick]

Who the hell knows?

Kerry's officially back from the dead.  So is Edwards.  I think Clark and Lieberman look foolish for not running in Iowa and now that the other candidates are returning to New Hampshire, I would expect Clark's numbers to start dropping and Kerry's to continue rising.  It's not out of the question for Dean to win New Hampshire, but Kerry's the one with all the momentum (Although that didn't do much for George H.W. Bush).

I think Dean seriously hurt himself with that bizarre speech in Iowa.  He was downright Satanic with that husky growl and all that wild finger pointing.  This could be the beginning of the end for Dean.  I hope not, but it could be.

[Nation]

Is there a transcript of that speech anywhere?

[emergingDmajority1]

Dean is coming apart, the poor showing in Iowa + the demonic speech will turn a lot of people off. You really can't recover from that, this guy is not presidential at all.

NH will look like this

Edwards is at 9% in NH will get a boost from his very strong 32% showing in Iowa plus I feel a Gephardt endorsement coming.

1. Kerry
2. Edwards (just barely edges wes)
3. Clark

4. Dean, perhaps a close 4th, but he's going to sink

5. Lieberman, who will drop out

6. Kucinich, won't drop out just yet

7. Sharpton, also drops out

[MAS117]

You need to see it on tv not on the computer

[Gustaf]

Dean is coming apart, the poor showing in Iowa + the demonic speech will turn a lot of people off. You really can't recover from that, this guy is not presidential at all.

NH will look like this

Edwards is at 9% in NH will get a boost from his very strong 32% showing in Iowa plus I feel a Gephardt endorsement coming.

1. Kerry
2. Edwards (just barely edges wes)
3. Clark

4. Dean, perhaps a close 4th, but he's going to sink

5. Lieberman, who will drop out

6. Kucinich, won't drop out just yet

7. Sharpton, also drops out

Hi there emergingD! Interesting prediction, I hope you're right. Want to check out the Fantasy Election of this forum? Why don't you register to vote, so you don't miss out on all the fun?

[MAS117]

whats with the clinton /gore

[Michael Z]

My prediction:

1. Kerry
2. Lieberman
3. Edwards
4. Dean

I expect Lieberman to finish in the top 3 at least; after IA, anything is possible. Besides, NH is the most conservative of all the Northeastern states.

I don't see how Dean can win NH now after such an abysmal result in Iowa, and his campaign clearly losing momentum. As for Kerry's comeback, it's amazing how quickly things change in politics.

Is there a transcript of that speech anywhere?

It's on the title page of deanforamerica.com, and yes, it is an awful speech.

[Gustaf]

My prediction:

1. Kerry
2. Lieberman
3. Edwards
4. Dean

I expect Lieberman to finish in the top 3 at least; after IA, anything is possible. Besides, NH is the most conservative of all the Northeastern states.

I don't see how Dean can win NH now after such an abysmal result in Iowa, and his campaign clearly losing momentum. As for Kerry's comeback, it's amazing how quickly things change in politics.

Is there a transcript of that speech anywhere?

It's on the title page of deanforamerica.com, and yes, it is an awful speech.

Are NH Democratic priamry voters as conservative?

What is this speech I keep hearing so much about?

Has Gephardt made a formal endorsement yet, I am not quite getting that?

[StevenNick]

Dean is coming apart, the poor showing in Iowa + the demonic speech will turn a lot of people off. You really can't recover from that, this guy is not presidential at all.

NH will look like this

Edwards is at 9% in NH will get a boost from his very strong 32% showing in Iowa plus I feel a Gephardt endorsement coming.

1. Kerry
2. Edwards (just barely edges wes)
3. Clark

4. Dean, perhaps a close 4th, but he's going to sink

5. Lieberman, who will drop out

6. Kucinich, won't drop out just yet

7. Sharpton, also drops out

Don't forget, Clinton was pronounced dead a number of times in his battle for the nomination in 1992.  Bush looked like he was in serious trouble when he lost New Hampshire.  Just about a week and a half ago both Edwards and Kerry had all but disappeared.  Dean's been seriously wounded, but don't count him out too early.

Dean could actually benefit from all this.  He basically lowered everybody's expectations by losing so badly in Iowa so that if he wins in New Hampshire, he may get the added bonus of exceeding expectations.

And even if Kerry goes on to win New Hampshire, I think he'll have a hard time maintaining his momentum as the primaries move south and west.  Dean could still slip past Kerry in some of the later states and get the nomination.

One way or another, I think Dean is in this race until the convention.  He simply doesn't have anything to lose.

[MAS117]

No Gustaf no formal endorsement yet, you can expect on at his press conference at 2pm, and it is said he will support either Kerry or Edwards.

[Gustaf]

No Gustaf no formal endorsement yet, you can expect on at his press conference at 2pm, and it is said he will support either Kerry or Edwards.

Ah, thanks MAS!

SteveNick: you're right of course that Dean is very much still in the running. The problem is that he has nowhere to go but downwards. He will most likely do worse in NH than was originally expected, and that will hurt him badly.

[Platypus]

What he means to say, of course, is:

PLEASE REGISTER; WE NEED DEMOCRATS TO UPHOLD THE IDEALS OF SOCUIAL JUSTICE.

IF YOU HAVE ANY COMPASSION IN YOUR BODY AT ALL, REGISTER AND VOTE.

I think I summed it up about right

[MAS117]

i doubt deans numbers are going to rise more thne a few points anywhere, your right his only place to go is down, down,down... from his speech tongiht he looks like he should just quit now... what an idiot he sounds like

[Gustaf]

What he means to say, of course, is:

PLEASE REGISTER; WE NEED DEMOCRATS TO UPHOLD THE IDEALS OF SOCUIAL JUSTICE.

IF YOU HAVE ANY COMPASSION IN YOUR BODY AT ALL, REGISTER AND VOTE.

I think I summed it up about right

If you're referring to the fantasy election, the terrific forum member MAS has already registered! We're tied with the Reps right now, both in the poll and in the registration. Have everyone voted in the general election poll, btw?

[MAS117]

yeah i think i voted awhile ago