Congolese elections

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

These are Saturday, the first elections they've had that could be described as anywhere near remotely fair EVER. A big profile in the StarTrib today, it appears most of the Presidential candidates are either former warlords or ex-Mobuto officials unfortunately. Most likely scenario appears to be a runoff between interim President Joseph Kabila and former Mobuto regime official Pierre Pay Pay. Interesting both the sons of Lumumba and Mobuto are running, although neither is considered to have much of a chance. I support Lumumba regardless.

I don't know the system used for the Parliamentary elections, but I'd imagine like just about every other similar country all the parties are either ethnic factions or groupings around a single person, not ideological. Still will be interesting to see.

This also appears to be the UN's biggest peaceful operation ever, with only 300 miles of road in the country. Truckloads of ballots need to be brought to very remote areas, and counting could take weeks.

Any other info?

[Jens]

Read all about in on IRIN's special homepage
http://www.irinnews.org/DRCelection.asp

[minionofmidas]

Nice peace of journalism on campaigning in the Congo

[minionofmidas]

495 MPs are elected in 187 constituencies, based on the third tier of administration - There are 11 regions (soon to be replaced by 26 provinces that will actually have far more legal powers than the regions had in theory) and these are subdivided into cities and districts, with the districts further subdivided into territories. The cities and territories serve as constituencies. The city-region of Kinshasa is subdivided into "municipalities", and these will serve as constituencies within Kinshasa.
The number of MPs per constituency is proportional to the number of registered voters there.
63 of these constituencies are single-member and will apparently elect their MP by fptp. The remaining constituencies have 2 to 11 members (the city of Mbuyi-Maji being the largest constituency) and will use a PR system, although I'm not sure what method.
As all other sources insist on 500 MPs, I assume the remaining 5 are probably appointed by the President.
It would also appear the 120-member Senate, with current membership based on a compromise interim settlement, will remain in place for now.
Elections for the new 26 provincial assemblies will be on the same date as a presidential runoff, if needed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Any results yet?

[Jens]

Any results yet?

They only started voting today and given the caotic infrastructure in Congo, it will probably take days perhaps even a week before the final result are up.

[Jens]

KINSHASA, 28 Jul 2006 (IRIN) - Columns of smoke rose over Kinshasa on Thursday as political violence claimed the lives of three policemen and at least three civilians ahead of Sunday's elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The headquarters of the Independent Media Authority, set up to ensure fair media coverage, was set on fire, as was the compound housing the bodyguards of Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba, a candidate for the presidency.

The charred bodies of two babies lay in front of the compound as women howled with grief. "This means war," said one man who was too angry to give his name.

International observers of the elections and United Nations staff were told to stay off the streets, although by the evening the warning had been lifted.

Three policemen died in the violence, the governor of Kinshasa, Kibembe Mazunga, said on state television on Friday.

Neither government authorities nor the UN had given an official toll of the death and destruction by Friday afternoon.

"This was not a good day though it could have been worse. It can be expected in the context of the political jousting," Kemal Saiki, the spokesman for the UN Mission in DRC (MONUC), told IRIN on Thursday. "We are still hopeful that it will not deteriorate further."

Supporters of President Joseph Kabila reportedly attacked those of Bemba, who rallied at Kinshasa's Tata Raphael Stadium and filled it beyond its 50,000 capacity.

Police clashed with the supporters, using tear gas and shooting in the air. After they failed to disperse, witnesses said, police shot into the crowd killing at least one person.

Crowds attacked and burned down buildings owned by public figures linked to Kabila. One was a church led by the evangelist priest, the Rev Sony Kafuta. Another was a concert hall owned by star musician Noel Ngiama Makanda known as Werrason, a strong Kabila supporter.

At a news conference on Friday, Ross Mountain, the Deputy Special Representative for the UN Secretary-General in charge of Humanitarian Affairs in Kinshasa, presented his condolences to the families of the people who died in the violence. At the same time he said most of us "are still here the next day, and Kinshasa is again quiet".

He expressed confidence in the police. "We believe events like yesterday’s show that the police and national authorities can control such situations," he said.

The UN has some 17,000 troops in the country, the largest UN force in the world. A special unit of 2,000 troops from the European Union supports it.

[ag]

Any results yet?

They only started voting today and given the caotic infrastructure in Congo, it will probably take days perhaps even a week before the final result are up.

Actually, they are saying 3 weeks.

[WMS]

Étienne Tshisekedi's opposition to this is not exactly a good sign...

[minionofmidas]

from MONUC...
   
As the fever of the electoral results dominates the focus of the Congolese media and election candidates, the electoral authorities have made a call to order by denouncing “obvious violations of the electoral law”.

The abuse by certain media and political actors of partial and incomplete results threatens law and order.

The electoral law prohibits the media or the candidates to diffuse their own compilations of partial results, but some did not wait to publish “tendencies” and began announcing premature winners.

In a united official statement, the High Authority of the Media (HAM) and the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) denounced this practice as “dangerous”, and challenged these media on “their responsibilities, which does not authorise them to endanger the future of the nation.”

These institutions in support of democracy finally threatened sanctions “as far as closure”, of the media responsible for breaking the electoral law.

The International Committee that supports the Transition (CIAT), also said they were worried by “the abuse by certain media and political actors of partial and incomplete results, which sows disorder in the spirit of Congolese citizens, and threatens law and order”. The CIAT comprises international partners who support the process of the DRC democratic transition.

The IEC, who are the only ones entitled by the electoral law to publish the provisional results of the elections, have estimated that the results of the presidential elections will not be available before August 20. The results of the legislative elections will be published gradually by district, when they have been consolidated on a district level.

The presidential elections covers all the Congolese territory, therefore the IEC decided not to publish partial results for the presidential ones, and to only proclaim complete results.

The individual results of the 50,000 polling stations are to be forwarded to the 62 IEC local centres of results compilation, where they will be consolidated before publication.
This technical operation of consolidation is in progress, in the presence of witnesses of the political parties and of electoral observers. The process could last some weeks.

The provisional results published by the CEI could then be possibly disputed by the candidates through the courts of jurisdiction (Supreme Court for the presidential elections, Courts of Appeal for the legislative elections), which will then only be entitled to proclaim the final results.

[WMS]

However, Tshisekedi was opposed to how the elections were set up well before voting actually began. He's certainly got the best pro-democracy credentials...I remember him from back in the early 1990s when he risked his life opposing Mobutu...

[minionofmidas]

what it looks like is that Kabila won the east and Bemba the west, with at least 3 more candidates polling a sizeable share (I didn't see names given) and a runoff near-certain.

[WMS]

what it looks like is that Kabila won the east and Bemba the west, with at least 3 more candidates polling a sizeable share (I didn't see names given) and a runoff near-certain.

Link?

[minionofmidas]

what it looks like is that Kabila won the east and Bemba the west, with at least 3 more candidates polling a sizeable share (I didn't see names given) and a runoff near-certain.

Link?

Do your own googling.

[WMS]

what it looks like is that Kabila won the east and Bemba the west, with at least 3 more candidates polling a sizeable share (I didn't see names given) and a runoff near-certain.

Link?

Do your own googling.

Tease.

[minionofmidas]

They've started to release results, constituency by constituency (and down to precinct level!)
www.cei-rdc.cd - sounds like a cdrom format.

Some highlights...
loads of regional candidates polling well in one constituency or another. And "well" can mean extremely well, extreme example: Antoine Gizenga in Kikwit ville, Bandundu province, 92.6% of the vote. 30 km further south, and he's an also-ran.
The Mobutu name still carries far in the rural north - Francois Mobutu may actually have made it to third place nationally.
Kabila's vote shares reach down as far as 1.0% in some Equateur province constituency, Bemba's as far as 0.3% in Goma. Both reach up to the lower 90s in places.
Turnout seems low in the Kasai, but that's to be expected - it's where Tshisekedi's from.
And so on.

[WMS]

Keep 'em coming, Lewis.

[minionofmidas]

Keep 'em coming, Lewis.

Here's an area they're calling Kinshasa 3. There weren't any Kinshasa results out til a day ago or two.

Bemba 49.7%
Antoine Gizenga (yes. I'm surprised too.) 21.3%
Kabila 14.3%
Oscar Kashala 9.2%

If I still had any doubts that there'll be a runoff, they're disspelled now. (The official site doesn't sum, but apparently someone else summed the released results a while ago, and had Kabila breaking 45% at that point. Given the distribution of released results though, it always seemed highly likely that his vote share would decline. Still, without any good word out of Kinshasa... this perception might have been wrong. That's settled now.)

[WMS]

Here's an area they're calling Kinshasa 3. There weren't any Kinshasa results out til a day ago or two.

Bemba 49.7%
Antoine Gizenga (yes. I'm surprised too.) 21.3%
Kabila 14.3%
Oscar Kashala 9.2%

If I still had any doubts that there'll be a runoff, they're disspelled now. (The official site doesn't sum, but apparently someone else summed the released results a while ago, and had Kabila breaking 45% at that point. Given the distribution of released results though, it always seemed highly likely that his vote share would decline. Still, without any good word out of Kinshasa... this perception might have been wrong. That's settled now.)

Well, I would have been highly suspicious had anyone won enough votes to avoid a runoff.

[minionofmidas]

495 MPs are elected in 187 constituencies
As all other sources insist on 500 MPs, I assume the remaining 5 are probably appointed by the President.

Actually, I assume the list on the french Wiki is incomplete.

Kabila's vote shares reach down as far as 1.0% in some Equateur province constituency, Bemba's as far as 0.3% in Goma. Both reach up to the lower 90s in places.

Ha. Kabare territory in Sud-Kivu. 97.4% Kabila. On a higher 90s turnout too.

[minionofmidas]

Election result:
Turnout 70.54%
valid 94.54%

Kabila 44.81%
Bemba 20.03%
Gizenga 13.06%
Mobutu 4.77%
Oscar Kashala 3.46%
Azanias Ruberwa 1.69%
Pierre Pay Pay 1.58% (both easterners and former militia leaders. Ruberwa (like Bemba) is one of the interim vice presidents; the other two did not run.)
Vincent de Paul Lunda (Vincent who?) 1.40%
25 other candidates 0.60% to 0.10% each (Lumbumba's son 0.42%)
I would have loved to publish regional results now, but I'd have to calculate them myself and even have some gaps still - the "partial results" page with the results by constituency wasn't updated when the last few results came in.

Here's Kinshasa though, minus the commune of Kalamu (3 of the 59 parliament seats; should have ca.130K reg.d voters) :
2.78 mio reg.d voters
turnout 72.17%
valid 96.35%

Bemba 48.30% (which explains why his vote share didn't go up like I thought it would. Lots of the extra votes I thought Bemba had coming for him, probably not just in Kinshasa but in Bandundu province as well, went to Gizenga instead.)
Gizenga 22.82%
Kabila 14.59%
Kashala 7.66%
all others under 1%. From a cursory glance, it seems Pay Pay may have taken 5th place in the city.

[minionofmidas]

Who is Antoine Gizenga?

Antoine Gizenga (* 1925 in Mushiko, easily the oldest of the leading candidates) founded a party of his own, Parti Solidaire Africain in the runup to independence, and was invited to the Brussels all-party conference of 1960, where he didn't deliberate much but instead toured the eastern bloc (and stopped over in newly independent and quite pan-african revolutionary oriented Guinea on the way back home).

In the May 1960 elections, his party won 13 of the 137 seats in the national parliament, and became the strongest party in the Kinshasa (then still "Leopoldville", o/c) regional parliament, with 35 out of 90 seats.
Lumumba made him a deputy prime minister after that, and the two were allies after that though they hadn't fought the elections as allies - in the election Gizenga had been more closely allied to President Kasavubu. In the fall 1960 coup, Gizenga set up an anticoupist government in Kisangani, which was recognized by diverse countries around the world, mostly third world ones. Lumumba tried to flee there, and got mudered instead, of course.

In August 1961, there was a settlement, and Gizenga became deputy prime minister for half a year. Immediately upon his dismissal, he was arrested and kept prisoner for 2 1/2 years. Then he was under house arrest for another year, and then in exile for 27 - in the Soviet Union until they made their peace with Mobutu, then in France until the French threw him out at Mobutu's bidding, then in Angola until they made their peace with Mobutu, and finally in the other Congo. In exile he founded another party, the PALU (African Party of United Lumumbists - Gizenga has successfully established himself as Lumumba's political heir, apparently).
In 92 he was allowed to return home and be a harmless domestic opposition figure for the rest of Mobutu's reign.

He was involved in the 2002 peace talks in South Africa. He may have gotten the votes of some of Tshisekedi's supporters as well.

[minionofmidas]

They still haven't added the missing presidentials results although they've started releasing legislative results.

Here's Bandundu Province (Presidentials o/c), in so far as it's been released.
1,97 mio voters
Turnout 73.4%
valid 96.0%

Gizenga 76.8% !
Bemba 13.2%
Kabila 2.7%

all others under 1%.

This represents 15 constituencies with 35 seats. French Wiki lists 5 more constituencies with 13 seats, 3 of which are marked as missing (along with some that actually are in) on the  map on the election website.

[minionofmidas]

Bas-Congo, ie downstream from Kinshasa.

12 constituencies with 26 seats; result apparently complete.

1.23mio reg.d voters
Turnout 76.0%
91.4% valid

Bemba 36.2%
Kabila 13.9%
Josephine M'poyo Kasavubu 6.6% (Kasavubu was the President of the Congo 1960-5, probably a family member)
Kashala 6.5%
Pierre Matusila 6.2%
Wivine N'landu 4.5%
Lundu 4.1% - I'm certain that these are the top 7 vote getters. It's merely reasonably likely that the following three are in  8 to 10:
Eugène Diomi 2.6%
Jacob Niemba 2.3%
Gizenga 1.8%
I was originally intending to list everybody receiving over 1% of the vote, but I'm almost certain I missed at least one or two.
Now that's what I call a widely scattered result (except for Bemba, and even he is hardly all-dominating).

[Jens]

DRC: Kabila, Mobutu's son sign pact to form government
A bit of news from Congo. Seems like Kabila is trying to gain some ground in the Western parts

----------------


KINSHASA, 18 October (IRIN) - Congolese President Joseph Kabila, who faces Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba in a second-round presidential poll, has agreed to include one of the sons of late President Mobutu Sese Seko in his government should he win the 29 October contest.

After signing the agreement on Tuesday in the capital, Kinshasa, François Joseph Zanga Mobutu, who heads the Union des démocrates Mobutistes (UDEMO) political party, said: "UDEMO is calling on Congolese men and women, young and old, to vote massively for President Kabila in the next round of elections."

Kabila secured 44.8 percent of the vote during the first round in July but this was not enough for an outright victory. Bemba, one of four vice-presidents, garnered 20 percent, beating a crowded field of candidates to face off with Kabila in the second round.

According to the Kabila-Mobutu pact, UDEMO would play a major role in government should Kabila become president.

"In addition to its high political consequences, this agreement translates in reality into reconciliation and putting aside individual pride for the overall interest of the nation," Kabila said. "It is also a nationalist gesture of a generation that wants to overcome ideological arguments and to prove wrong those who think that the east and west are irreconcilable."

Most of the votes Kabila won in the first round came from the eastern part of his country, his home area, while Bemba, who hails from Equateur Province, received the majority of his votes from the west. This is the reason for the alliance Kabila has made with Mobutu, who is from the same province as Bemba.

Kabila has also entered into an alliance with Antoine Gizenga, 83, who came third in the first round and heads the Parti Lumumbiste Unifié (PALU), whose stronghold is in Bandundu, another western province.

Mobutu said he was happy to join Kabila's electoral platform, known as l'Alliance de la majorite presidentielle (AMP), which incorporates politicians who have been former rulers. These include the Lumumbists represented by Gizenga; Kabila's group, represented by President Kabila whose father, Laurent-Desire Kabila was assassinated in office in 2001; and the Mobutists.

Mobutu was one of 31 candidates who contested the first round of the presidential polls; he came fourth with 4 percent of the vote.

The Kabila-Mobutu pact comes on the fourth day of the electoral campaign, launched on Saturday for the next 15 days, which has been marred by violence between Kabila and Bemba supporters.