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Author Topic: Feb 3rd Primaries: How will they play?  (Read 3984 times)
mossy
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« on: January 20, 2004, 01:13:59 am »
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Looking at the primaries held on Feb. 3rd, these could be the most interesting ones of all.

Arizona
Delaware
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina

Depending on how it goes in Arizona, I have it currently in the Blue column.........but after tonight's surprising Iowa caucus, I'm going to change my map and should Clark get the nomination, I think he'll win Arizona by 2% points.

Another one that should go to Bush is S.C......and if the primary goes to Edwards, it will probably stay in the Blue.   But should it go to Clark, Bush better start worrying......
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2004, 01:18:19 am »
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I don't know about Clark worrying Bush so much. Are you talking about how the states holding primary elections in two weeks will vote in the general, or how they will vote in the primary?
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mossy
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« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2004, 01:43:24 am »
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I don't know about Clark worrying Bush so much. Are you talking about how the states holding primary elections in two weeks will vote in the general, or how they will vote in the primary?


Clark is the only one that has Bush scared.

It depends how one interpets the Iowa caucus--if one  can--Kerry getting it was a complete surprise to me.

If Iowans selected Kerry instead of Gearhart (favorite son type) or Dean (firebrand), as more on the basis if of beating Bush, rather that who they liked, it could mean that the other states may pick the best anti-Bush dem....... rather than who they "like"......
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Gustaf
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2004, 01:55:27 am »
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I don't know about Clark worrying Bush so much. Are you talking about how the states holding primary elections in two weeks will vote in the general, or how they will vote in the primary?


Clark is the only one that has Bush scared.

It depends how one interpets the Iowa caucus--if one  can--Kerry getting it was a complete surprise to me.

If Iowans selected Kerry instead of Gearhart (favorite son type) or Dean (firebrand), as more on the basis if of beating Bush, rather that who they liked, it could mean that the other states may pick the best anti-Bush dem....... rather than who they "like"......

Yes, that might be the case. But watch out for "nothing to lose"-Edwards, who will pick up now.
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MAS117
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2004, 01:57:31 am »
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As far as the Feb. 3rd primaries play out from the endorsement standpoint. I think that whoever finishes strongly in NH will take alot of those primaries. But for right now, the person with the best endorsements for DE is Joe Lieberman. Whoever Gephardt backs will do good in Missouri. Edwards has about 25 endorsements in OK and should do good in SC if he has his big mo going... Lieberman also has strong endorsements in AZ and he is using his McCain ties down there which I'm sure every other Dem will. The likelyhood of Joe L winning anything is unlikely. No one has any real campgains in ND...and in New Mexico Kerry has the endorsement of the State House Speaker which will probably bring more endorsements come Feb 3rd... thats how it plays out from the endorsement standpoint of the Feb. 3rd primaries... KERRY FOR PRESIDENT
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2004, 01:58:52 am »
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I think Lieberman will be eliminated at this stage, but beyond that I don't think February 3 will prove to be very conclusive at all as to who will be the democratic nominee.  Kerry, Edwards, Dean, and Clark all do reasonably well on Feb. 3.
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« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2004, 02:02:20 am »
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For the past few months all the pundits (and myself) have been thinking and predicting that Howard Dean would run away with the contest and waltz his way to the nomination.  Now I think that Dean, Clark, Edwards, and Kerry could all go to the covention with less than a majority of delegates.  I certainly don't think there will be a presumptive nominee by March 2 as I once thought.

Of course, that suits me just fine.  I'd like to see the dems beat up on eachother until July while President Bush gets to look presidential.

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MAS117
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« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2004, 02:04:49 am »
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my last post was by the endorsement standpoint... to me its a 4 person race... wes,john,john,and howard... the reality of joe l winning anything is strongly unlikely, but im not ruling it out... hey look what happened tongiht!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2004, 02:07:46 am »
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For the past few months all the pundits (and myself) have been thinking and predicting that Howard Dean would run away with the contest and waltz his way to the nomination.  Now I think that Dean, Clark, Edwards, and Kerry could all go to the covention with less than a majority of delegates.  I certainly don't think there will be a presumptive nominee by March 2 as I once thought.

Of course, that suits me just fine.  I'd like to see the dems beat up on eachother until July while President Bush gets to look presidential.



I am not so sure. I don't think that there's room for all of them to do good on Feb 3. One of them will most likely have to drop out by then.
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« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2004, 02:10:47 am »
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i doubt anyone will drop out after feb 3rd besides joe l, kuchinch and sharpton are in it till the end... but if dennis drops hell endorse edwards most likely
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Michael Z
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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2004, 02:14:03 am »
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It's really too early to say what will happen on February 3rd; the IA caucus demonstrated just how quickly things can change. I'm gonna wait until NH before making any further predictions.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2004, 02:14:42 am by Michael Zeigermann »Logged
MAS117
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2004, 02:15:07 am »
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good idea mike
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2004, 02:15:25 am »
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i doubt anyone will drop out after feb 3rd besides joe l, kuchinch and sharpton are in it till the end... but if dennis drops hell endorse edwards most likely

I thought Kucinich endorsement of Edwards meant that he had dropped out already?

I think Kerry and whoever wins NH will keep in the race after Feb 3rd. But if Clark does poorly in NH, he might do poorly on Feb 3rd and then he will have to drop out. Kerry and Edwards are looking good though, and Dean still stands a good chance in NH, which might keep him in the race.
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MAS117
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« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2004, 02:16:34 am »
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No what dennis said was that if he couldnt get the 15% of people at a caucus when they should go and join the edwards side, he is still in the race
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Gustaf
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« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2004, 02:18:17 am »
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No what dennis said was that if he couldnt get the 15% of people at a caucus when they should go and join the edwards side, he is still in the race

Aha. Thanks for clearing that up. Why don't he drop out then, if he backs another candidate, why not drop out, since we know he won't win?
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MAS117
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2004, 02:19:30 am »
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basically no one knows... hes a loser, pretty much his whole public life hasnt been that great, i guess for publicy is the only reason i can think of
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Gustaf
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« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2004, 02:26:23 am »
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basically no one knows... hes a loser, pretty much his whole public life hasnt been that great, i guess for publicy is the only reason i can think of

Well, that's what I guessed. But starting to give out endorsements is probably a certain way of killing an already staggering campaign.
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MAS117
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« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2004, 02:27:34 am »
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if you look at dicks www it basically says he is dropping out tommorrow
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Michael Z
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« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2004, 02:32:20 am »
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if you look at dicks www it basically says he is dropping out tommorrow

At least he's bowing out gracefully.
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MAS117
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« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2004, 02:33:06 am »
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yeah, he has no personality though
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mossy
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« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2004, 02:49:08 am »
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My sense was Edwards, Sharpton, Braun, Kucin., were in the race for dual purposes: to pay their dues in developing name recognition for future races and/or possible VP to demonstrate their ability to campaign, get some votes, and staying in to try to help the party educate the public on the issues.   I saw Edwards as a natural for a future run for the Presidency, but he's making a strong showing in the polls, etc....he's a viable candidate in this race, and not just a pretty face.

Hearing Kerry speak tonight was an eye-opener--I liked what I heard, especially the phrasing on special int. groups holding hostage, the right wing going after civil liberties.....
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Gustaf
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« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2004, 03:24:29 am »
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My sense was Edwards, Sharpton, Braun, Kucin., were in the race for dual purposes: to pay their dues in developing name recognition for future races and/or possible VP to demonstrate their ability to campaign, get some votes, and staying in to try to help the party educate the public on the issues.   I saw Edwards as a natural for a future run for the Presidency, but he's making a strong showing in the polls, etc....he's a viable candidate in this race, and not just a pretty face.

Hearing Kerry speak tonight was an eye-opener--I liked what I heard, especially the phrasing on special int. groups holding hostage, the right wing going after civil liberties.....

Mossy, have you thought about registering to vote in the Atlas Forum fantasy elections? We need you to beat the Republicans! Smiley
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2004, 06:47:26 am »
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Looking at the primaries held on Feb. 3rd, these could be the most interesting ones of all.

Arizona
Delaware
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina

Depending on how it goes in Arizona, I have it currently in the Blue column.........but after tonight's surprising Iowa caucus, I'm going to change my map and should Clark get the nomination, I think he'll win Arizona by 2% points.

Another one that should go to Bush is S.C......and if the primary goes to Edwards, it will probably stay in the Blue.   But should it go to Clark, Bush better start worrying......

I think Dean will win NH, but it will be narrow and Kerry will win most of those states and Dean will be done, but he'll stay in. Edwards will win SC. Kerry will win OK, MO, NM, AZ.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2004, 06:49:14 am »
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I don't know about Clark worrying Bush so much. Are you talking about how the states holding primary elections in two weeks will vote in the general, or how they will vote in the primary?


Clark is the only one that has Bush scared.

It depends how one interpets the Iowa caucus--if one  can--Kerry getting it was a complete surprise to me.

If Iowans selected Kerry instead of Gearhart (favorite son type) or Dean (firebrand), as more on the basis if of beating Bush, rather that who they liked, it could mean that the other states may pick the best anti-Bush dem....... rather than who they "like"......

I think Bush would want Clark before Kerry and Edwards.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #24 on: January 20, 2004, 06:50:45 am »
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As far as the Feb. 3rd primaries play out from the endorsement standpoint. I think that whoever finishes strongly in NH will take alot of those primaries.

Yes, I agree.  Kerry doesn't have to win. If he moves from third to a hair-breadth close second, he gets momentum and wins well on 2/3.  He's got money to run in these states.
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