How stable is the Iranian government?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Obviously, not a lot of information is seeping out of Iran about the situation there.

However, my sources advise me that there is a chasm between the ordinary people and the government.

They further advise me that the nuttiness of the Iranian government is partially because both the key personnel in the Iranian government are not playing with a full deck and because the extreme bellicosity gives them an excuse for clamping down hard on the country.

I have been advised that Bush is deliberately avoiding dealing with the Iranian problem directly as any hostile action by the United States would be used as a pretext for the Iranian government to further clamp down on the country.

The central question is how close are the Iranian people to revolting?

Comments.

[phk]

Not very far. Ahmadinejad has a 70% approval rating.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sorry, but please cite a source.

[phk]

http://www.iranian.com/Javedanfar/2006/June/Ahmadinejad/index.html

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for the humor.

Perhaps somebody can cite a credible source.

[phk]

How is that not credible?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Did you bother to check the source?

[ag]

How is that not credible?

A Baltimore Sun Op-ed piece by an Israeli Jewish Persian-speaking and Tel Aviv-resident commentator republished by an anti-regime web site in the US. The author is, sort of, a standby guy for US journalists to call on when they need a fast quote about Iran. A simple google search shows that in the last month he has been cited on regional matters by, inter alia, Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor, and, a bit before that, by Haaretz in Israel - not at all complimentary to the Iranian regime.   Here is a conclusion from his Haaretz article:

"Meanwhile, as the world's military analysts try to decide if the military point of no return in Iran's nuclear program is two, five or 10 years away, the fact remains that by openly calling for Israel's destruction, Iran crossed the political point of no return in its foreign and nuclear policy. By doing so Tehran must be made to understand that in a post-Rwanda and Darfur world, calls for genocide are not only unacceptable, but they also carry a very hefty price."

Of course, one has to acknowledge, it's not exactly Friedman writing at the the NYTimes and he didn't do a proper poll.

[AuH2O]

The "President" of Iran has little power. He's popular because he talks tough. So long as the mediocre economy continues to putter, the regime will be OK. An economic collapse due to sanctions or conflict would put the regime in serious danger of collapse.

[MODU]

The "President" of Iran has little power. He's popular because he talks tough. So long as the mediocre economy continues to putter, the regime will be OK. An economic collapse due to sanctions or conflict would put the regime in serious danger of collapse.

I would agree.  Also, that 70% approval rating might be as accurate as the 100% approval rating Saddam had before being removed.  We know there is a major movement in the Northern section of Iran that is against not only Ahmadinejad, but also the Clerics that actually have the power in the country.  They were denied their fair chance at running for power two years ago, and missed gaining Executive power in the last election due to a run-off vote. 

[ATFFL]

More stable than you think and less stable than the Mullahs think.

[WMS]

More stable than you think and less stable than the Mullahs think.

Yah, this sounds accurate.

[minionofmidas]

They further advise me that the nuttiness of the Iranian government is partially because both the key personnel in the Iranian government are not playing with a full deck and because the extreme bellicosity gives them an excuse for clamping down hard on the country.

No. They're pushing for nuclear power and dissing Israel because doing so plays well with the general populace and isn't costing them any power.
Political (pro-democracy, anti- unelected clerical involvement) reforms or economic (socialist) reforms would be even more popular, but would cost the Mullahs power.

The president is hardly powerless, but he is not the most powerful man in the country, let alone anywhere near dictatorial powers (lol). When judging his approval ratings, you should also remember that he was elected as the anti-establishment candidate. A high approvement rating for Ahmadinejad is, if anything (big if), a sign of a lack of stability. Also, remember that he was an extremely effective and extremely popular mayor of Tehran before he became president, and that he is not a cleric.

[CARLHAYDEN]

So far the discussion seems to me to have generated relatively little enlightenment.

For whatever reason, somebody decided to focus on the sociopath that currently occupies the Presidency of Iran.

Now, as has been correctly noted by some posters, the real power in the government resides with the mullahs.

To expand on my initial post, the question is to what extent the average Iranian is getting tired of the Islamofacists.

[minionofmidas]

To expand on my initial post, the question is to what extent the average Iranian is getting tired of the Islamofacists.

To the extent that they gave over 60% of the vote to a guy like Ahmadinejad over the safest, dirtiest pair of hands the traditional clerical elite had to offer.
But not to an extent sufficient to put a reasonably westernish candidate, of which there were two, into the runoff in the first place.

[CARLHAYDEN]

To expand on my initial post, the question is to what extent the average Iranian is getting tired of the Islamofacists.

To the extent that they gave over 60% of the vote to a guy like Ahmadinejad over the safest, dirtiest pair of hands the traditional clerical elite had to offer.
But not to an extent sufficient to put a reasonably westernish candidate, of which there were two, into the runoff in the first place.


Lewis, Iranian elections arerigged to the extent never even contemplated by the old Kelly-Nash machine, so your example las limited credibility.

[minionofmidas]

Yes and no.
Certainly candidate selection is. The vote results themselves are not, or at least not usually. Certainly Ahmadinejad winning was not what the Council of Guardians had in mind.