Dem hopes to take back the House rest on DCCC's $51.5M ad blitz

[MarkWarner08]

The DCCC isn't attacking PA-10, IN-02, KY-03 or NH 02.  Why is Shays getting a slap on the hand while Nancy Johnson is getting hammered with ads?

What do you think?   Should Hayworth and Johnson get more coverage than Sherwood and Chocola?
Based on the DCCC's $3 million in ads in PA-06 I have but three words: Bye Bye Gerlach.

Here's the full list:

Type of Seat District GOP Candidate    DCCC Ad Buy

GOP Open AZ-08 Open 8 weeks, $1.69M
  CO-07 Open 6 weeks, $2.29M
   IA-01 Open 10 weeks, $2.1M
   IL-06 Open 3 weeks, $2.33M
   MN-06 Open 4 weeks, $1.39M
   NY-24 Open  6 weeks, $797K
   WI-08 Open 9 weeks, $667K
         
GOP Incumbent
  AZ-05 J.D. Hayworth 5 weeks, $1.7M
   CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave 2 weeks,$630K
   CT-02 Rob Simmons 5 weeks, $1.9M
   CT-04 Christopher Shays  4 weeks,$362.5K
   CT-05 Nancy Johnson 5 weeks, $1.75M
   FL-22 Clay Shaw 5 weeks, $2.13M
   IN-02 Chris Chocola   
    IN-08 John Hostettler 11 weeks, $1.42M
   IN-09 Mike Sodrel 6 weeks, $1.3M
   KY-03 Anne Northup   
  KY-04 Geoff Davis 6 weeks, $2.74M
   NC-11 Charles Taylor 8 weeks, $1.41M
   NM-01 Heather Wilson 8 weeks, $2.1M
   OH-01 Steve Chabot 4 weeks, $721K
   OH-15 Deborah Pryce 3 weeks, $1.2M
   OH-18 Bob Ney 3 weeks, $1.55M
   PA-06 Jim Gerlach 4 weeks, $3.07M
   PA-07 Curt Weldon 4 weeks, $2.32M
   PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick 4 weeks, $2.29M
   VA-02 Thelma Drake 8 weeks, $850K
   WA-08 Dave Reichert 4 weeks, $1.49M

Dem Open
  OH-06 Open 3 weeks, $147K
   VT-al Open 8 weeks, $632K

Dem Incumbent
  IA-03 Leonard Boswell 10 weeks,$920.5K
   IL-08 Melissa Bean 3 weeks, $2.32M
   WV-01 Alan Mollohan 3 weeks, $11,928

Source: NRCC


http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/080206/news1.html

[Sam Spade]

These seats all sound right to me.

[zorkpolitics]

Nice list you, I would suggest you can rank the competitiveness by the $ amount. 
Among Dem incumbents clearly Melissa Bean is the only one at risk.
Among Dem. Open seats they are surprisingly worried about VT

As for open seat takeover targets, looks like the only ones they aren't very confident of taking are NY-24 and WI-08.

Among Republican Incumbents surprisingly, they are not investing much into CT-04, but also not much into CO-4 and VA-02.

Thus, looks like The DCCC is expecting to pick up at least 22 seats.

I actually think this is still a bit conservative.  The NPR poll in the 50 most competitive districts found a 17 point swing from the 2004 result (Republicans won by 12%) to now (Democrats lead by 5%).  A 17 point swing would indicate about a 30 seat shift.

[MarkWarner08]

Nice list you, I would suggest you can rank the competitiveness by the $ amount. 
Among Dem incumbents clearly Melissa Bean is the only one at risk.
Among Dem. Open seats they are surprisingly worried about VT

As for open seat takeover targets, looks like the only ones they aren't very confident of taking are NY-24 and WI-08.

Among Republican Incumbents surprisingly, they are not investing much into CT-04, but also not much into CO-4 and VA-02.

Thus, looks like The DCCC is expecting to pick up at least 22 seats.

I actually think this is still a bit conservative.  The NPR poll in the 50 most competitive districts found a 17 point swing from the 2004 result (Republicans won by 12%) to now (Democrats lead by 5%).  A 17 point swing would indicate about a 30 seat shift.

What about Jeff Lamberti? As a Democrat, I'm most worried about Boswell's chances in a competitive race. I expect Boswell to lose to Lamberti barring a major wave.

I'm still skeptical that the Dems will take back the House. The NRCC is probably the best battle-tested of the six major political committees (NRCC, NRSC, RNC, DCCC, DSCC and the DNC). Howard Dean's DNC and the Democratic failure in 2000 to effectively battle GOP gerrymandering in Ohio, Florida and Michigan.

[Sam Spade]

I actually think this is still a bit conservative.  The NPR poll in the 50 most competitive districts found a 17 point swing from the 2004 result (Republicans won by 12%) to now (Democrats lead by 5%).  A 17 point swing would indicate about a 30 seat shift.

The only problem with this is that the NPR numbers are total crapola.  Republicans did not win these 50 "most competitive" seats by 12%.

In these 50 "most competitive" seats, the numbers were as follows (correcting for 3rd party adjustments):

Bush 53.3%
Kerry 46.7%
Margin: 6.6%

This shift, added with the slight Dem bias I think the poll has looking at the internals, make the shift more in the range of 15-25 seats, as opposed to 20-30 seats, respectfully.  Still enough to shift control.

[jerusalemcar5]

As for open seat takeover targets, looks like the only ones they aren't very confident of taking are NY-24

It looks better for Democrats everyday.  The recent visit by Dick Cheney severly hurt the chances of the Republican.  Hundreds came out to protest and angry letters to the editor ran in the Syracuse Post-Standard for over a week.

The Democrat is quite popular and the Democratic tide should move this Democratic. 

Hopefully we can say the same for NY-25 soon!

[Keystone Phil]

Based on the DCCC's $3 million in ads in PA-06 I have but three words: Bye Bye Gerlach.

Nope

[MarkWarner08]

Based on the DCCC's $3 million in ads in PA-06 I have but three words: Bye Bye Gerlach.

Nope

Are you saying the GOP's smear campaign against Lois Murphy is going to cancel out Gerlach's ties to Bush, Rendell's coattails, the DCCC's $3 million and Murphy's own warchest?

If Gerlach only wins 51% in a year when Bush takes 48% in the district, there's now way he'll win when Bush's polling in the low 30's.

[nini2287]

Based on the DCCC's $3 million in ads in PA-06 I have but three words: Bye Bye Gerlach.

Nope

Are you saying the GOP's smear campaign against Lois Murphy is going to cancel out Gerlach's ties to Bush, Rendell's coattails, the DCCC's $3 million and Murphy's own warchest?

If Gerlach only wins 51% in a year when Bush takes 48% in the district, there's now way he'll win when Bush's polling in the low 30's.

I live in a neighboring district, I've seen a number of Gerlach ads and not a single Murphy one yet.

Lois Murphy is a nice person, but I'd vote for Gerlach in this race.  I'd rather have a Republican whose forced to have a moderate voting record than an ex-head of a NARAL.

[Jake]

The DCCC would be better served putting money on closer races then PA-10. It simply not one of the 15-20 very close, very winnable races they need to concentrate on to win the House back.

[Keystone Phil]

Are you saying the GOP's smear campaign against Lois Murphy is going to cancel out Gerlach's ties to Bush, Rendell's coattails, the DCCC's $3 million and Murphy's own warchest?

Look at 2004 - Higher turnout for the Dems (Presidential races always bring out more Dems than Gubernatorial races so don't use Rendell as if there will be a huge surge in turnout).

Murphy might have her personal warchest but Gerlach isn't too far behind.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

First off, Bush is polling near 40%, not the low 30s. Secondly, midterms don't bring out as many Dems as Presidential races. Unless you are suggesting that this year's turnout will match a Presidential election's turnout, the point about Bush isn't that strong. Republicans might be frustrated with the President but not enough to turn away in huge droves from the more moderate Gerlach.

Lois Murphy is a nice person, but I'd vote for Gerlach in this race.  I'd rather have a Republican whose forced to have a moderate voting record than an ex-head of a NARAL.

I believe the Presidential race two years ago helped Murphy a lot but I still don't fully understand how she could get so much support in a district like PA 6. The woman is outside of the mainstream in that area.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I don't believe Bush is at 40% yet, more like between 35%-38%.  The list does seem correct but they should perhaps be targeting some more Western and Southern Districts - the party needs competetive races in every state and polling has shown incumbents like Barbara Cubin (WY AL) are at risk.  They could also target Jeff Fortenberry (NE-1) who has a former Republican Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul running against him and Jim Ryun (KS-2) who ran behind Bush in 2004 against another Republican-turned-Democrat who he faces again this year.  I believe Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas are worth putting some money on because taking or even competing hard in these seats would be a coup in the GOP's backyard and all of the states have a popular Democratic incumbent up for re-election.

[Wiz in Wis]

As for open seat takeover targets, looks like the only ones they aren't very confident of taking are NY-24 and WI-08.

No, I would disagree on WI-08.  It is a very cheap media market (only Green Bay and Rhinelander) and the likely winner of the primary (Kagen) is self funding to the tune of 1.5 million.  With a long ad buy (9 weeks) this looks like a very smart move by the DCCC.

[MODU]

They have a good chance to take back the house, but I think it's going to be very close.  It will all depend on how they play their cards, and what news comes out between now and the elections.

[MarkWarner08]

[/quote]

I believe the Presidential race two years ago helped Murphy a lot but I still don't fully understand how she could get so much support in a district like PA 6. The woman is outside of the mainstream in that area.
[/quote]

Lois Murphy is no more out of the mainstream than Jim Gerlach. Two years ago, the NRCC ran a series of despicable ads that implied that Murphy would negotiate with the Taliban. Their warrant for this wild accusation was that she had been endorsed by a group which had a board member that espoused the views in question. This guilt by association trick carried Gelach to a 51% to 49% victory.

Imagine Gerlach's response if Murphy had  blamed him for Enron's collapse because Bush, one of Gerlach's biggest supporters, had been helped by Ken Lay.

[nini2287]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Lois Murphy is no more out of the mainstream than Jim Gerlach. Two years ago, the NRCC ran a series of despicable ads that implied that Murphy would negotiate with the Taliban. Their warrant for this wild accusation was that she had been endorsed by a group which had a board member that espoused the views in question. This guilt by association trick carried Gelach to a 51% to 49% victory.

Imagine Gerlach's response if Murphy had  blamed him for Enron's collapse because Bush, one of Gerlach's biggest supporters, had been helped by Ken Lay.

How is Jim Gerlach's voting record out of the mainstream?  His moderate libertarian-leaning conservative voting record is what it needs to be for a suburban Philadelphia Republican.  (except for the abortion issue, I suppose).

[MasterJedi]

No, they'll come close though.

[WMS]

I see I'm gonna hate turning on the TV or the radio for the next few months.

Damn it, where's the quality polling for NM-1?!

[Speed of Sound]

Sweet! Ill get to see all of those Murphy ads. Sadly, im like 1/2 mile out of the district. But still, to never have to hear his name again will be nice.

[Keystone Phil]

Lois Murphy is no more out of the mainstream than Jim Gerlach. Two years ago, the NRCC ran a series of despicable ads that implied that Murphy would negotiate with the Taliban. Their warrant for this wild accusation was that she had been endorsed by a group which had a board member that espoused the views in question. This guilt by association trick carried Gelach to a 51% to 49% victory.

I remember the ads but that didn't make Gerlach extreme.

[MarkWarner08]

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP
DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AZ-08 OPEN (Kolbe) R+1 Likely Dem Pickup
CO-07 OPEN (Beauprez) D+2  Leans Dem Pickup
CT-02 Rob Simmons D+8 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
CT-04 Chris Shays D+5 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
FL-13 OPEN (Harris) R+4 Pure Tossup
FL-16 OPEN (Foley) R+2 Leans Dem Pickup
FL-22 Clay Shaw D+4 Slightly Leaning Dem Pickup
IL-06 OPEN (Hyde) R+3 Pure Tossup
IN-02 Chris Chocola R+4 Leans Dem Pickup
IN-08 John Hostettler R+9 Leans Dem Pickup
IN-09 Mike Sodrel R+7 Slightly Leaning Dem Pickup
IA-01 OPEN (Nussle) D+5 Slightly Leaning Dem Pickup
KY-04 Geoff Davis R+12 Slightly Leaning Dem Pickup
MN-06 OPEN (Kennedy) R+5 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
NM-01 Heather Wilson D+2 Slightly Lean ing Dem Pickup
NY-24 OPEN (Boehlert) R+1 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
NY-26 Tom Reynolds R+3 Pure Tossup
NC-11 Charles Taylor R+7 Slightly Leaning Dem Pickup
OH-01 Steve Chabot R+1
OH-15 Deborah Pryce R+1 Pure Tossup
OH-18 OPEN (Ney) R+6 Pure Tossup
PA-06 Jim Gerlach D+2 Slightly Leaning Dem Pickup
PA-07 Curt Weldon D+4 Slightly Leaning Dem Pickup
PA-10 Don Sherwood R+8 Leans Dem Pickup
TX-22 OPEN (DeLay) R+15 Likely Dem Pickup
VA-02 Thelma Drake R+6 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
WA-08 Dave Reichert D+2 Pure Tossup
WI-08 OPEN (Green) R+4 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold

LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AZ-05 J.D. Hayworth R+4 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
CA-04 John Doolittle R+11 Leans GOP Hold
CA-11 Richard Pombo R+3 Leans GOP Hold
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave R+9 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
CT-05 Nancy Johnson D+4 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
KY-02 Ron Lewis R+13 Likely GOP Hold
KY-03 Anne Northup D+2 Likely GOP Hold
NV-02 OPEN (Gibbons) R+8 Leans GOP Hold
NV-03 Jon Porter D+1 Leans GOP Hold
NH-02 Charlie Bass D+3 Leans GOP Hold
NJ-07 Mike Ferguson R+1 Likely GOP Hold
NY-20 John Sweeney R+3  Likely GOP Hold
NY-29 Randy Kuhl R+5 Leans GOP Hold
PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick D+3 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
TX-23 Henry Bonilla R+4 Run-off-  Slightly Leaning GOP Hold when Bonilla faces Richard Bolanos

LIKELY REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVE PVI
FL-08 Ric Keller R+3 Likely GOP Hold
FL-09 OPEN (Bilirakis) R+4 Likely GOP Hold
ID-01 OPEN (Otter) R+19 Leans GOP Hold
IL-10 Mark Kirk D+4 Likely GOP Hold
IA-02 Jim Leach D+7 Likely GOP Hold
MN-01 Gil Gutknecht R+1  Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
NE-01 Jeff Fortenberry R+12 Likely GOP Hold
NH-01 Jeb Bradley R+0 Likely GOP Hold
NY-03 Peter King D+2 Likely GOP Hold
NY-19 Sue Kelly R+1 Likely GOP Hold
NY-25 James Walsh D+3 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
NC-08 Robin Hayes R+3  Leans GOP Hold
OH-02 Jean Schmidt R+13 Slightly Leaning GOP Hold
PA-04 Melissa Hart R+3  Likely GOP Hold
VA-10 Frank Wolf R+5 Likely GOP Hold
WY-AL Barbara Cubin R+19  Slightly Leaning GOP Hold


As of today, the Democrats have 15 GOP seats that they would pickup.   There are lost 5 GOP seats in the “tossup” category. Expect Democrats to win 3-4 of those seats. Another 15 GOP seats are now in the Slightly Leaning GOP Hold category. If a wave comes, expect about 10 of those 14 Republicans to lose.  There are also eight Republican seats in the “Leans GOP” category. I expect the GOP to hold about 6 of those seats. If you look at the remaining seats and factor for every election cycles “big surprise,” I anticipate Democrats will pickup one "Likely GOP" seat. I have the Democratic pickup ranging from a minimum of 15 seats to easily a mid 30’s gain in seats.

All of this depends on individual candidates ability to rally their supporters, the efficacy of the GOTV efforts, the impact of outside ads (read DCCC and NRCC) and finally, if there’s another change in the national political climate.

[Conan]

Dems will definately take back the house either this year or 2008. Probably this year.

[MarkWarner08]

Dems will definately take back the house either this year or 2008. Probably this year.

I remember an Economist article back in 2000 that predicted an era of political see-sawing. They said the House would shift back and forth nearly every election cycle. If the Democrats take the House in '06 and lose in the McCain romp of '08, then there will have been three party control shifts in three years.

[Conan]

Dems will definately take back the house either this year or 2008. Probably this year.

I remember an Economist article back in 2000 that predicted an era of political see-sawing. They said the House would shift back and forth nearly every election cycle. If the Democrats take the House in '06 and lose in the McCain romp of '08, then there will have been three party control shifts in three years.

Well McCain is definitely not a shoe in although some believe so.

[MarkWarner08]

Dems will definately take back the house either this year or 2008. Probably this year.

I remember an Economist article back in 2000 that predicted an era of political see-sawing. They said the House would shift back and forth nearly every election cycle. If the Democrats take the House in '06 and lose in the McCain romp of '08, then there will have been three party control shifts in three years.

Well McCain is definitely not a shoe in although some believe so.

I'm laying out a hypothetical. I don't even think he'll get the Republican nomination.