The Pennsylvania Congressional Delegation

[TeePee4Prez]

Explain your reasoning.  I voted Dem +2.  I predict the 6th and the 8th will flip.  Here's my anaylsis:

Certain D- 1, 2, 14 

These are districts the Democrats can put up a parking cone and win.

Safe D- 11, 12, 17

I get the feeling Kanjorski will feel some heat with a good candidate.  Murtha will too for some of his comments.  The 17th is a populist-conservative district and Holden is just that, but nonetheless the GOP does well here.  However, it would take a shift of Biblical proportions for the GOP to win here.

Strong D- 13

I have to admit Raj is running a helluva field operation, but some of his comments are boneheaded.  One minute he's Strom Thrumond Jr., and the next he's pathetically blasting Joe Biden over a harmless comment when he was actually complimenting the business acumen of the Indian community.  As seen in 2004 with Melissa Brown, this "Save the Northeast (Philadelphia)" crap and similiar tactics are getting old and Schwartz should widen her margin a few points, but she can't be caught napping either.  If I were the GOP, I would have drafted Al Taubenberger.  At least you would inspire the Enterpriser Republican base in Montco and the pro-life Catholic base in NE Philly. 

Lean D- 6

The fact that I went to bed thinking Lois Murphy won that November night in 2004 in a much more favorable GOP climate makes me think Rendell being an even greater Democratic vote getter along with Bush's extremely anemic approval ratings in Southeast PA (see Survey USA) makes me think this is enough to put Lois over the top.  Jim Gerlach is going for the immigration issue as his bread and butter for now, but I know that district is not really all that anti-immigrant.  Both candidates are trying to distance themselves from Bush and we all know who has the advantage there.

Pure Tossup- 7, 8

If it weren't for the quality (Fitzpatrick) or length of service (Weldon) of the incumbent, I would peg these races as Lean Dem, but unfortunately for me that is not the case.  Some people on here, especially Phil, thinks these are GOP shoo-ins.  Far from it.  Prior to this year, I would not have put Weldon on radar, but now having looked at prior races with a nothing candidate cracking 40% and Weldon's margins eroding each year, this race is defintiely worth a shot to takeover.  Curt Weldon has also made some ludicrous comments and has an ultra-conservative voting record far to the right of his district which has not voted for a GOP Pres since the 1980s.  With the national climate plus Rendell on the top of the ticket, the Democrats have a very good shot of getting this seat with a quality candidate in Joe Sestak.  As for the 8th, I think Fitzpatrick's margin of victory in 2004 wasn't all that great considering the weakness of Ginny Schrader.  The 9/11 effect also had the greatest effect here relative to the rest of Southeast PA.  The Democratic chances here rely heavily on Rendell and Bush's performance here.  The problem for the Democrats is you have a populist lower Bucks base which is trending GOP along with the NE Philly sliver which is not liking the Democrats running the city.  You also have to consider the fact Fitzpatrick's voting record is almost dead center and he can claim he's distant from Bush.  I would attack Fitz on his stem cell vote districtwide, choice in Central Bucks, and some of his anti-labor pump fakes in lower Bucks/NE Philly.  I think Pat Murphy is the candidate who can make Fitz give some answers on these issues.     
 
Moderate R- 4, 10

I don't know an awful lot about these areas, but I do know Hart is ultra rigth wing in a populist district and Sherwood has issues.  Jason Altmire is a good candidate and pro-life which I will concede we need to run in this area, plus he has raised a lot of money.  Need I go further on Sherwood?

Strong R- 3, 15, 18

A very strong Dem climate could makes these seats vulnerable, but it would damn near have to be Biblical considering the weak candidates the Dems put up.

Certain R- 5, 9, 16, 19

Well like I said earlier, a parking cone could be put up as a Republican and win here.

This results in:

Democratic Seats: 8
Republican Seats: 9
Tossup: 2

If we get both tossups, PA sends a Dem delegation to Congress, but we need BOTH.     

[nini2287]

I'm going to stay the same for now, with Fitzpatrick and Gerlach winning very tight races, here's how I'd break it down:

Safe Democrat-1 (Brady), 2 (Fattah), 11 (Kanjorski), 14 (Doyle)
Strong Lean Democrat-12 (Murtha), 13 (Schwartz) 17 (Holden)
Lean Democrat-none
Tossup-6 (Gerlach), 8 (Fitzpatrick)
Lean Republican-4 (Hart), 7 (Weldon), 10 (Sherwood)
Strong Lean Republican-3 (English), 15 (Dent), 18 (Murphy)
Safe Republican-5 (Peterson), 9 (Shuster), 16 (Pitts), 19 (Platts)

[NewFederalist]

Holden will win easily in the 17th since his Republican opponent is a first time office seeker. After Holden retires, this district will be a GOP pick up. He is just amazing how he wins against huge registration odds. He is also a pretty good representative!

[Adlai Stevenson]

As Kerry carried PA-15 isn't Dent in at least some danger?  He was elected in 2004 and won by the large margin of 59%-39%, but as he is a newly-elected Congressman in a 51% Kerry District (I think?) couldn't he be vulnerable?

[TeePee4Prez]

As Kerry carried PA-15 isn't Dent in at least some danger?  He was elected in 2004 and won by the large margin of 59%-39%, but as he is a newly-elected Congressman in a 51% Kerry District (I think?) couldn't he be vulnerable?

PA 15 has a nothing opponent.

[Jake]

Democrats pick-up PA-6. Outside shot at PA-7 and PA-8. Long shot at PA-10.

[Nym90]

Dems pick up 6, 7, and 8, no change elsewhere.

[nini2287]

And my predicitions for the non-safe races in order from least to most close:

Strong Lean Democrat-12 (Murtha), 13 (Schwartz) 17 (Holden)
Lean Democrat-none
Tossup-6 (Gerlach), 8 (Fitzpatrick)
Lean Republican-4 (Hart), 7 (Weldon), 10 (Sherwood)
Strong Lean Republican-3 (English), 15 (Dent), 18 (Murphy)

Dent 64, Dem 36
Holden 63, GOP 37
Murtha 61, Irey 39
Schwartz 59, Bhakta 41
English 58, Porter 42
Murphy 57, Dem 43
Hart 56, Altmire 44
Sherwood 55, Carney 45
Weldon 54, Sestak 46
Fitzpatrick 53, Murphy 47
Gerlach 52, Murphy 48

I'm too lazy to look up which races have third party candidates.

[Jake]

In my opinion:

Certain Democrat: PA-1, PA-2, PA-14
Likely Democrat (>60%): PA-11, PA-13, PA-17
Lean Democrat (<60%): PA-12
Toss-up (within 5%): PA-6
Lean Republican (<60%): PA-7, PA-8, PA-10
Likely Republican (>60%): PA-3, PA-4, PA-15, PA-18
Certain Republican: PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-19

In any case, I doubt more than PA-6 will change hands. Should something happen in the next month that causes a massive shift against the GOP, I'd not be surprised to see PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10 to fall, though I view that as very unlikely.

For the record,

PA-6
51 - Murphy
49 - Gerlach

PA-7
54 - Weldon
46 - Sestak

PA-8
54 - Fitzpatrick
46 - Murphy

PA-10
55 - Sherwood
44 - Carney

PA-12
56 - Murtha
42 - Irey

[bullmoose88]

No offense flyers and nini...but you two have been drinking too much Kool-aid (Jonestown brew?) if you think that Fitz is a tossup or worse.

I repeat my question...

"Patrick who?"

[bullmoose88]

When I see some signs that Patrick Murphy actually exists as a person...I will let you know...at this point I'll accept campaign signs or ads.

And I live in Lower Bucks.

[TeePee4Prez]

No offense flyers and nini...but you two have been drinking too much Kool-aid (Jonestown brew?) if you think that Fitz is a tossup or worse.

I repeat my question...

"Patrick who?"

It's only August.  Remember campagining doesn't startup until after Labor Day.

[J. J.]

I'll make this prediction.  The Democrats will gain one seat in PA-6, PA-7, or PA-8.

In PA-12, Murtha will get less than 60% of the vote and may pull a Rangel is 2008.

The Democrats will hold all incumbent seats.

[nini2287]

When I see some signs that Patrick Murphy actually exists as a person...I will let you know...at this point I'll accept campaign signs or ads.

And I live in Lower Bucks.

I saw a bunch of Patrick signs around primary day.  I also remember some neutral poll released awhile back that said Fitz 44, Murphy 38.

[Sam Spade]

When I see some signs that Patrick Murphy actually exists as a person...I will let you know...at this point I'll accept campaign signs or ads.

And I live in Lower Bucks.

I saw a bunch of Patrick signs around primary day.  I also remember some neutral poll released awhile back that said Fitz 44, Murphy 38.

That was an internal poll conducted by the Patrick Murphy campaign, nini.

Anywho, of the interesting CDs, PA-6 (R) is Lean D, PA-7 (R) is Toss-up, PA-8 (R) is Lean R (barely), PA-10 (R) is Lean R, PA-4 (R) is not even on my list (though I am watching it) and PA-12 (D) also fits the Watch category because of Murtha, though Irey will start to need to do better in raising funds to have any shot.

I'd say that at this point in the political season, two will go the Democrats.  If we get up to three or four, the Democrats will probably win 30 seats anyways and it'll be a really rough night for the GOP. 

Still, at the same time, it could go down to one; PA-06 is probably the top (non-open seat) Dem pickup in the nation (excepting TX-22 w/DeLay) and it's just going to be hard for Gerlach to hold this thing in a Dem-leaning environment.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'll make this prediction.  The Democrats will gain one seat in PA-6, PA-7, or PA-8.

In PA-12, Murtha will get less than 60% of the vote and may pull a Rangel is 2008.

The Democrats will hold all incumbent seats.

I think the 6th is looking VERY good for the Dems.  I'd say one of either the 7th or 8th.  What it boils down to is the 7th is moving drastically more liberal with a right wing Congressman, but he's entrenched.  The 8th has a moderate Congressman who not very entrenched, too socially conservative for the district, but the 8th is politically stagnant and Fitz has people he can appeal to.

[nini2287]

When I see some signs that Patrick Murphy actually exists as a person...I will let you know...at this point I'll accept campaign signs or ads.

And I live in Lower Bucks.

I saw a bunch of Patrick signs around primary day.  I also remember some neutral poll released awhile back that said Fitz 44, Murphy 38.

That was an internal poll conducted by the Patrick Murphy campaign, nini.

Never mind then, I thought it was a newspaper poll or something like that.  Speaking of that, we should get a big poll from the Inquirer soon, I remember about this time two years ago they did a major poll of all of the local hot House races.

[bullmoose88]

No offense flyers and nini...but you two have been drinking too much Kool-aid (Jonestown brew?) if you think that Fitz is a tossup or worse.

I repeat my question...

"Patrick who?"

I can drive down to some of the most democratic areas in the county...its like pat doesn't exist.
It's only August.  Remember campagining doesn't startup until after Labor Day.

[Keystone Phil]

No offense flyers and nini...but you two have been drinking too much Kool-aid (Jonestown brew?) if you think that Fitz is a tossup or worse.

I repeat my question...

"Patrick who?"

Not only that, Flyers is a total hack for thinking 7 is a pure tossup!

[Keystone Phil]

PA 7 is strong Republican and PA 6 and 8 lean GOP. In the end, everything stays the same.

[TeePee4Prez]

No offense flyers and nini...but you two have been drinking too much Kool-aid (Jonestown brew?) if you think that Fitz is a tossup or worse.

I repeat my question...

"Patrick who?"

Not only that, Flyers is a total hack for thinking 7 is a pure tossup!

Now the name calling begins.  Not surprising Phil.

[Keystone Phil]

No offense flyers and nini...but you two have been drinking too much Kool-aid (Jonestown brew?) if you think that Fitz is a tossup or worse.

I repeat my question...

"Patrick who?"

Not only that, Flyers is a total hack for thinking 7 is a pure tossup!

Now the name calling begins.  Not surprising Phil.

It may be name calling but it is totally true. At least I don't launch into a totally obnoxious rant like you do.