'06 Senate preview: Will the Democrats take back the Senate?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I voted Yes; I may be being partisanly optimistic but I believe that this election will be a wave election - ala 1974, 1986 and 1994.  The Democrats seem likely to retake the House of Representatives and when that happens it is very rare historically for the Senate not to go the same way. 

I think that the party will retain their own more competetive seats in Minnesota, New Jersey and Washington.  In addition a wave would see us take Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island; these are the top-tier races - I believe that if the election were held today we would win these seats.  That puts us on a 50-50 tie. 

Given that, I think that either Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee or Virginia could potentially put us over the top; all of them are interesting possibilities but at the moment the open seat in Tennessee is undoubtedly the most competetive.  I think Ford is an exciting candidate who is a right fit for the state.  He can raise money, hopefully produce a high turnout amongst African Americans and take on Corker effectively.  Corker is untested and has emerged from a primary battle.  He is a moderate in a conservative-leaning state and in a bad year for his party - I still think Ford has a chance.